Jets goaltending discussion (part 3)

[WerdnaG]

this too.

Thats probably why we are out on him tbh. Him being younger makes him a more attractive option pretty much every where else. I could see Vancouver being interested.

 

[Evil Little]

I think Mason is the best goalie of the three, but I find myself succumbing to the narratives surrounding Mason and Elliott's leadership/willingness to work with another (hopefully better) goalie.

From '13-'17 they all have well over 3000 all-sit's SA and Bernier has stopped the lowest percentage of pucks of the three (https://puckalytics.com/#/goalies?season=201317&situation=all&TOIMin=200&GPMin=0&GPMax=999&TOIDecMin=0&TOIDecMax=99999&checkbox=0,121,852,39&showFilters=true&Team=&Player_Name=&Pos=):

Goaler|SA|SV%
Elliott | 4272 | 91.92%
Mason | 6392 | 91.76%
Bernier | 5616 | 91.52%

5-on-5 (https://puckalytics.com/#/goalies?season=201317&situation=5v5&TOIMin=200&GPMin=0&GPMax=999&TOIDecMin=0&TOIDecMax=99999&checkbox=0,121,852,39&showFilters=true&Team=&Player_Name=&Pos=):

Goaler|SA|SV%
Mason | 5038 | 93.09%
Elliott | 3254 | 92.78%
Bernier | 4298 | 92.30%

 

[untouchable21]

Have never been impressed with Bernier at all. Do not want.

 

[Bob E]

Bernier would not be on my list either.

 

[bennysflyers16]

I think Mason is the best goalie of the three, but I find myself succumbing to the narratives surrounding Mason and Elliott's leadership/willingness to work with another (hopefully better) goalie.

From '13-'17 they all have well over 3000 all-sit's SA and Bernier has stopped the lowest percentage of pucks of the three (https://puckalytics.com/#/goalies?season=201317&situation=all&TOIMin=200&GPMin=0&GPMax=999&TOIDecMin=0&TOIDecMax=99999&checkbox=0,121,852,39&showFilters=true&Team=&Player_Name=&Pos=):

Goaler|SA|SV%
Elliott | 4272 | 91.92%
Mason | 6392 | 91.76%
Bernier | 5616 | 91.52%

5-on-5 (https://puckalytics.com/#/goalies?season=201317&situation=5v5&TOIMin=200&GPMin=0&GPMax=999&TOIDecMin=0&TOIDecMax=99999&checkbox=0,121,852,39&showFilters=true&Team=&Player_Name=&Pos=):

Goaler|SA|SV%
Mason | 5038 | 93.09%
Elliott | 3254 | 92.78%
Bernier | 4298 | 92.30%

Appears to be main reason Flyers are moving on,,,

 

[ERYX]

i'm ok with elliot.

I'd be happier probably with bernier.

I don't know ... I was still following the Leafs quite closely during Bernier's tenure there and I wasn't too impressed. He has a tendency to let in some real stinkers at really bad times. He seems kind of psychologically fragile to me and can get into bad slumps. I hear what people are saying about Elliott being inconsistent too, but I'd be wary of Bernier.

Elliott will be an upgrade over Hutch, but he should be the last resort, not first resort. After 6 poor seasons Chevy owes the fans a great season of goaltending. All I see with Elliott/Helle is more seasons of average/ below average goaltending.
Trouba, Ehlers, Morrissey and Laine are going to get massive pay raises soon....the time to win is now. Its year 7. Just getting back into the playoffs is not good enough.

Once again some fans/Chevy have set the bar low in Winnipeg.

Who do you think the Jets should have gone for, and how do you think this could have been accomplished?

I myself just don't see any of the elite goalies out there as being realistic options, either because their teams won't move them, or because they won't accept a trade/sign with Winnipeg (like Bishop, for example, who refused a trade to Calgary and therefore would not have signed in Winnipeg IMO).

 

[WPGChief]

Appears to be main reason Flyers are moving on,,,

From reading @NMercad's tweets in the past, it seems to be more of PHI coaching repeatedly flipping between goalies and not allowing Mason (or Neuvirth) to get more than one/two/three games in a row, which is why both parties are moving on.

 

[Whileee]

as a statistical stickler I must disagree.

though thats just off sv%, i don't know a good place to find quality starts/evs%/etc. I don't pretend to know a lot about goalies except that their one job is to top as many pucks as possible.

bernier thus far has stopped 91.5% of pucks. Mason has stopped 91.1% and thats the gap between slightly below average to above average.

Any discussion about save percentage should be stratified to account for special teams.

Last 4 seasons...

EV save %

Mason 0.928
Elliott 0.925
Bernier 0.923

(Hellebuyck 0.924)

SH save %

Elliott 0.892
Bernier 0.883
Mason 0.856

(Hellebuyck 0.849)

 

[WPGChief]

Any discussion about save percentage should be stratified to account for special teams.

What???

You want to talk about a stat like save percentage, which is entirely dependent on sample size, and then cut that sample size down significantly? Ridiculous.

 

[DRW204]

Bernier with the leafs was a 915 goalie, Bernier this year was a 915 goalie, Bernier for his career is a 915 goalie. Having said that, every time I've seen him (especially for ANA in the playoffs this year) I was always on the edge of my seat cuz he always seemed shaky and mentally fragile, and had the propensity to let in a softie.

 

[Whileee]

What???

You want to talk about a stat like save percentage, which is entirely dependent on sample size, and then cut that sample size down significantly? Ridiculous.

You don't need to cut down sample size at all. You could just use a direct adjustment method (equivalent to a weighted average, accounting for differentials in shots against by strength), keep all the data, and remove the biases.

Pretty standard stuff, but too seldom used.

I did this sort of analysis for a number of goalies last year, but can't be bothered to repeat it or find it.

 

[Evil Little]

From reading @NMercad's tweets in the past, it seems to be more of PHI coaching repeatedly flipping between goalies and not allowing Mason (or Neuvirth) to get more than one/two/three games in a row, which is why both parties are moving on.

That may be the case, but:

1) If that makes it to Twitter--even if Mercadante is pretty well-connected, as I suspect he has a foot, or at least a toe, in the door of the tight-knit goaltenders' union--I don't know how well he'll interact with the rest of the team, or the rest of the goalies. Win and it doesn't matter. Don't win, though...

2) I'm basically certain that's how the Jets' goalies will be used until at least December.

 

[kylbaz]

Any discussion about save percentage should be stratified to account for special teams.

Last 4 seasons...

EV save %

Mason 0.928
Elliott 0.925
Bernier 0.923

(Hellebuyck 0.924)

SH save %

Elliott 0.892
Bernier 0.883
Mason 0.856

(Hellebuyck 0.849)

How much is SH save % on goalie and how much is on team though?
What's Ellitott's SH save % with Calgary vs when he was with a top team in StL.

 

[kylbaz]

Bernier with the leafs was a 915 goalie, Bernier this year was a 915 goalie, Bernier for his career is a 915 goalie. Having said that, every time I've seen him (especially for ANA in the playoffs this year) I was always on the edge of my seat cuz he always seemed shaky and mentally fragile, and had the propensity to let in a softie.

Sounds like Helle.

 

[SCP Guy]

Sounds like Helle.

Except one is 4 years older then the other

 

[saxonmiller]

I would love to see Mason in a Jets uni!

 

[DashingDane]

Any discussion about save percentage should be stratified to account for special teams.

Last 4 seasons...

EV save %

Mason 0.928
Elliott 0.925
Bernier 0.923

(Hellebuyck 0.924)

SH save %

Elliott 0.892
Bernier 0.883
Mason 0.856

(Hellebuyck 0.849)

This is the deciding factor for me. Jets can't stay out of the sin bin and Elliott seems to be slightly better at that. I am definitely the least excited about Bernier. I get to watch a lot of Ducks games living in Southern California and I have a feeling Bernier would really frustrate Jets fans pretty quickly.

 

[Romang67]

How much is SH save % on goalie and how much is on team though?
What's Ellitott's SH save % with Calgary vs when he was with a top team in StL.

He has been good on the PK every other season, and mediocre/bad every other season ever since he moved to St. Louis.

I was actually wondering the same thing. Didn't seem like he was good on the PK in St. Louis because of Hitchcock at least.

 

[WPGChief]

You don't need to cut down sample size at all. You could just use a direct adjustment method (equivalent to a weighted average, accounting for differentials in shots against by strength), keep all the data, and remove the biases.

Pretty standard stuff, but too seldom used.

I did this sort of analysis for a number of goalies last year, but can't be bothered to repeat it or find it.

But season-to-season shorthanded save percentage is generally unrepeatable, is it not? Doesn't that suggest that it isn't necessarily 100% the goalies influencing their own SHSV%?

 

[HannuJ]

i'm ok with elliot.

I'd be happier probably with bernier.

but i am ok with elliot.

not sure how someone can want Bernier after his tenure with the Leafs.

 

[ps241]

ok I am getting a bit confused. Kind of thought Elliott was our man?

Oh well hopefully it sorts itself out one way or the other on Saturday. I will be at my cabin enjoying Canada day with my family so no matter what it's always a good day.

 

[surixon]

ok I am getting a bit confused. Kind of thought Elliott was our man?

Oh well hopefully it sorts itself out one way or the other on Saturday. I will be at my cabin enjoying Canada day with my family so no matter what it's always a good day.

Interesting. I'm personally good with either of the two.

 

[kylbaz]

not sure how someone can want Bernier after his tenure with the Leafs.

Not a huge Bernier fan either but:
Career .915% vs Elliotts .913%? And that's with playing with a poor Leafs team vs Elliott playing with a good Blues team.

 

[drumzan]

Wonder if this is posturing to Elliott's agent.

 

[Grind]

ok I am getting a bit confused. Kind of thought Elliott was our man?

Oh well hopefully it sorts itself out one way or the other on Saturday. I will be at my cabin enjoying Canada day with my family so no matter what it's always a good day.

same PS.

after what's been bandied about in this thread i no longer have strong feelings for any of Bernier, Elliot, or mason over the rest.

whichever ones going to sign at moderate term and good price is fine by me. as long as we get one of them!