Probably, but contract values have been moderating somewhat with the flat cap.
The point is that the Jets should probably give extra term to get a lower AAV from Little at this point.
They should, which should result in the AAV being comparable to Oshie's.
5M is definitely low but 6 years is definitely long. The question is, does it take 24-28M, 28-32M or 32-36M? JMO but I think that 30+-2 range is about right. Does 5yx6M sound more reasonable to you? Especially when a player is looking at what is likely his last contract I think the total $$$ is the most important thing. 6x5 will take him to 37 YO. Is Little likely to be a player who is still competitive past 35 years old? 5M will be a bargain for the first couple of years, about right for a couple and way more than he is worth the last couple. Probably.
6 years is not long in this context. Oshie (46M), Ladd (38.5M), Eriksson (36M), Lucic (42M), Okposo (42M), Dubinsky (35.1M) all got over 35M, none of them signed for less than 6 years. 30M is what was given to a 32yo Backes coming off a 45-point season, on a 5-year contract for ages 32-37 worth 6M AAV. 31yo Radulov came in at 31.25M, on a 5 year contract for ages 31-36 worth 6.25M AAV.
Assuming that he plays a "normal" season, if Little hits the free market, he'll definitely receive offers north of 35M. There is no evidence to suggest otherwise. The market will be there. Henrik Sedin and Joe Thornton will be free agents, and really old ones. Calgary has Backlund expiring, St. Louis has Stastny expiring, Minnesota Koivu. Montreal hasn't found their guy yet. Columbus could use another guy. Nashville is trying Bonino right now. Rangers' situation down the middle isn't clear. I'm sure there's more.
So, if Little doesn't give us a big "hometown" discount, the numbers are pretty clear. A five-year deal under 6.25M AAV just doesn't happen without a discount. On an 8-year deal, the AAV might become as low as 5.25-5.5M. But that also means that he's locked up until the age of 38. That's what the market tells us. We can complain about the facts, we can post "I would sign him 5 years, 5 million" on this board, won't change anything about the market.
5 years, 6.25 - 6.75M AAV
6 years, 5.75 - 6.25M AAV
8 years, 5.25 - 5.75M AAV
These are the interesting contracts. We shouldn't discuss whether they are fair - they are in line with everything we've seen in the past, there are lots of comparables, these offers are market value (or at least close). We can discuss whether it's the right move to offer one of those, and which one.