Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 15-16 Part VIII

[cbcwpg]

It is interesting though: if the other GM's really want to uncork the trade bottle, make Chevy an offer he can't refuse. I dare 'em.

I'm not sure if even that would make anything happen. An offer Chevy can't refuse.... it might just paralyze him.

"analysis paralysis"

http://personalexcellence.co/blog/analysis-paralysis/

 

[YWGinYYZ]

I'm not sure if even that would make anything happen. An offer Chevy can't refuse.... it might just paralyze him.

"analysis paralysis"

http://personalexcellence.co/blog/analysis-paralysis/

Yes, yes. Funny meme is funny.

 

[tbcwpg]

What's the cap look like next season, assuming we sign Buff for $7mil and trade Ladd, Trouba gets $6, Scheifele gets $5.25, Armia gets $1.5 and Lowry gets $2 (being conservatively high with those numbers, leaving bonuses out):

XXX-Little(4.7)-Stafford(4.35)
Ehlers(1.594)-Scheifele(5.25)-Wheeler(5.6)
Armia(1.5)-Lowry(2)-Perreault(3)
Thorburn(1.2)-Copp(0.925)-Burmistrov(1.55)
Peluso(0.675)
Total: $32.344

Enstrom(5.75)-Myers(5.5)
Trouba(6)-Buff(7)
Stuart(2.625)-Chiarot(0.850)
Postma(0.925)
Total: $28.65

Hellebuyck(0.696)
Pavelec(3.9)
Total: $4.596
Cap Total: $65.59
Cap Space: $5.81 (assuming the cap doesn't change)

 

[CaptainChef]

$6m x 8 - that's what I'd do. I've personally seen enough of his play to be comfortable with that. He's dragged a boat anchor around for almost 2 years, and has still beaten his match-ups. Now that he's with Buff, we can see what he can be - a top pairing defenseman that can move the puck, score, and play a physical game.

Yep, me too. May as well lock him & Schief up for 8 if we can afford it. Troubs -- I like 5.75 x 8 but if it takes 6 mil/yr, good with that too. Schief -- see a bridge as a possibility, but I doubt he plays hard ball with the same vigor as Troubs so just over 5 per for a 6-8 yr deal may be possible

 

[Grind]

So most seem ok with 6 x 8

...so here's my question...

could you live with 6.5 x 8?

the only "crunch" we've really got is for the next 2 years.

afterwhich Enstrom stuart and pave are all off the books which free's up around 7 mil in caphit.

I would definitly say rigth now I don't "like" trouba at 8x 6.5, but the question is if that's what it takes, will we actually like the return from a trade more then that?

at some point the rarity/difficulty of acquiring the highest end talent (first line/top pair) is worth something on it's own.

This is where i get finnicky. We have no future top pairing dman in the system (unless morrissey surprises but i don't see him panning out at that level, though he may).

If we trade trouba, the best we can probably hope for is a similarly talented played who is older/less term, lottery tickets (unproven prospects), or a similarly talented player in a different position (ryjo-jones swap style)

That's where this gets so tough. Ideally you do a 1 for 1 with a similarly aged/talented player, but the problem there is we're far deeper (for the future) at forward then at D.

So essentially no return from trouba (aside from lottery tickets panning out) is going to be worth as much to this team as Trouba himself.

Therefore, should he not be worth "overpaying" for?

 

[Gm0ney]

What was the cap when Doughty signed? Was that before the cap went down or after? What if the cap is 68 mil next year?

Trouba over Hamonic is easy at even money but at more than 1.5x the cost is it still that easy?

Trouba is looking better lately since losing his ball and chain but that is still a pretty small sample. It will be bigger, at least I hope it will by season's end. He doesn't need to be signed until the off-season.

Doughty was signed in September of 2011. The cap ceiling heading into that 2011-12 season was $64.3M. The cap is currently $71.4M (+11%) but expected to remain flat or maybe fall slightly.

Doughty's numbers coming off his ELC:

08-09: 81gp, 6g, 21a, 27p, 0.33 ppg
09-10: 82gp, 16g, 43a, 59p, 0.72 ppg | playoffs: 6gp, 3g, 4a, 7p, 1.16 ppg
10-11: 76gp, 11g, 29a, 40p, 0.53 ppg | playoffs: 6gp, 2g, 2a, 4p, 0.67 ppg
Total: 230gp, 33g, 93a, 126p, 0.55 ppg | playoff total: 12gp, 5g, 6a, 11p, 0.92 ppg

After this, he signed an 8 year, $7M AAV deal.

Trouba's numbers coming off his ELC:

13-14: 65gp, 10g, 19a, 29p, 0.45 ppg
14-15: 65gp, 7g, 15a, 22p, 0.34 ppg | playoffs: 4gp, 0g, 2a, 2p, 0.50 ppg
15-16: 49gp, 4g, 6a, 10p, 0.20 ppg
Total: 179gp, 21g, 40a, 61p, 0.34 ppg | playoff total: 4gp, 0g, 2a, 2p, 0.50 ppg

I just grabbed the boxcars, but 0.34 ppg / 0.55 ppg = 62%. Not saying it's a straight line relationship of points:salary, but Trouba's definitely been less productive.

You can add in Corsi and PP TOI and maybe you've got an argument that Trouba's a bit closer to Doughty.

Let's be generous and say he's 75% of Doughty.

$7M/AAV under a $64.3M cap is about $7.75M under a $71.4M cap.

75% of that = $5.8M.
80% = $6.2M
90% = $7M

 

[Channelcat]

Dammit.... I was hoping that GM's werent paying attention

Apparently Panthers have zero interest in Ladd

 

[CaptainChef]

So most seem ok with 6 x 8

...so here's my question...

could you live with 6.5 x 8?

the only "crunch" we've really got is for the next 2 years.

afterwhich Enstrom stuart and pave are all off the books which free's up around 7 mil in caphit.

I would definitly say rigth now I don't "like" trouba at 8x 6.5, but the question is if that's what it takes, will we actually like the return from a trade more then that?

at some point the rarity/difficulty of acquiring the highest end talent (first line/top pair) is worth something on it's own.

This is where i get finnicky. We have no future top pairing dman in the system (unless morrissey surprises but i don't see him panning out at that level, though he may).

If we trade trouba, the best we can probably hope for is a similarly talented played who is older/less term, lottery tickets (unproven prospects), or a similarly talented player in a different position (ryjo-jones swap style)

That's where this gets so tough. Ideally you do a 1 for 1 with a similarly aged/talented player, but the problem there is we're far deeper (for the future) at forward then at D.

So essentially no return from trouba (aside from lottery tickets panning out) is going to be worth as much to this team as Trouba himself.

Therefore, should he not be worth "overpaying" for?

6.5 (even over 8) sounds too high -- at least in comparison to others out there. But, on the other hand, I think we will need to pay him whatever the market is -- what that is will become more clear when some of these other guys get signed. I don't think we can risk losing him -- way too difficult to find a replacement of that caliber IMO.

 

[SoupaTroupa]

Dammit.... I was hoping that GM's werent paying attention

Apparently Panthers have zero interest in Ladd

I keep seeing conflicting reports on this. I've seen multiple comments from multiple different sources that have said either they have zero interest, or they are very interested. I don't think anyone really know.

 

[CaptainChef]

Doughty was signed in September of 2011. The cap ceiling heading into that 2011-12 season was $64.3M. The cap is currently $71.4M (+11%) but expected to remain flat or maybe fall slightly.

Doughty's numbers coming off his ELC:

08-09: 81gp, 6g, 21a, 27p, 0.33 ppg
09-10: 82gp, 16g, 43a, 59p, 0.72 ppg | playoffs: 6gp, 3g, 4a, 7p, 1.16 ppg
10-11: 76gp, 11g, 29a, 40p, 0.53 ppg | playoffs: 6gp, 2g, 2a, 4p, 0.67 ppg
Total: 230gp, 33g, 93a, 126p, 0.55 ppg | playoff total: 12gp, 5g, 6a, 11p, 0.92 ppg

After this, he signed an 8 year, $7M AAV deal.

Trouba's numbers coming off his ELC:

13-14: 65gp, 10g, 19a, 29p, 0.45 ppg
14-15: 65gp, 7g, 15a, 22p, 0.34 ppg | playoffs: 4gp, 0g, 2a, 2p, 0.50 ppg
15-16: 49gp, 4g, 6a, 10p, 0.20 ppg
Total: 179gp, 21g, 40a, 61p, 0.34 ppg | playoff total: 4gp, 0g, 2a, 2p, 0.50 ppg

I just grabbed the boxcars, but 0.34 ppg / 0.55 ppg = 62%. Not saying it's a straight line relationship of points:salary, but Trouba's definitely been less productive.

You can add in Corsi and PP TOI and maybe you've got an argument that Trouba's a bit closer to Doughty.

Let's be generous and say he's 75% of Doughty.

$7M/AAV under a $64.3M cap is about $7.75M under a $71.4M cap.

75% of that = $5.8M.
80% = $6.2M
90% = $7M

Nice analysis. Comparing him to Doughty is a stretch, but maybe 75% of Doughty is fair. From that 6 X 8 seems more than fair but we'll see what some of these other young guns sign for this summer because I'm sure Chevy won't be a trend setter.

 

[Grind]

Doughty was signed in September of 2011. The cap ceiling heading into that 2011-12 season was $64.3M. The cap is currently $71.4M (+11%) but expected to remain flat or maybe fall slightly.

Doughty's numbers coming off his ELC:

08-09: 81gp, 6g, 21a, 27p, 0.33 ppg
09-10: 82gp, 16g, 43a, 59p, 0.72 ppg | playoffs: 6gp, 3g, 4a, 7p, 1.16 ppg
10-11: 76gp, 11g, 29a, 40p, 0.53 ppg | playoffs: 6gp, 2g, 2a, 4p, 0.67 ppg
Total: 230gp, 33g, 93a, 126p, 0.55 ppg | playoff total: 12gp, 5g, 6a, 11p, 0.92 ppg

After this, he signed an 8 year, $7M AAV deal.

Trouba's numbers coming off his ELC:

13-14: 65gp, 10g, 19a, 29p, 0.45 ppg
14-15: 65gp, 7g, 15a, 22p, 0.34 ppg | playoffs: 4gp, 0g, 2a, 2p, 0.50 ppg
15-16: 49gp, 4g, 6a, 10p, 0.20 ppg
Total: 179gp, 21g, 40a, 61p, 0.34 ppg | playoff total: 4gp, 0g, 2a, 2p, 0.50 ppg

I just grabbed the boxcars, but 0.34 ppg / 0.55 ppg = 62%. Not saying it's a straight line relationship of points:salary, but Trouba's definitely been less productive.

You can add in Corsi and PP TOI and maybe you've got an argument that Trouba's a bit closer to Doughty.

Let's be generous and say he's 75% of Doughty.

$7M/AAV under a $64.3M cap is about $7.75M under a $71.4M cap.

75% of that = $5.8M.
80% = $6.2M
90% = $7M

Awesome, this is more the sort of "starting point" analysis we should be askign ourselves, as opposed to the sweeping "while he's not doughty!" statements that people tend to gravitate too.

We have a tendency to make a large number of small assumptions/inaccuracies that before we know it have snowballed into an extremely inaccurate picture of what's going on.

Thanks a lot for doing that.

6.5 (even over 8) sounds too high -- at least in comparison to others out there. But, on the other hand, I think we will need to pay him whatever the market is -- what that is will become more clear when some of these other guys get signed. I don't think we can risk losing him -- way too difficult to find a replacement of that caliber IMO.

Which is exactly my point...is that additional cap hit worth the alternative (ie: 100% agreeable cap hit but for lesser value items/less rare items)?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yep

Honestly I think the bridge deal is going to die except for all but the most questionable players.

The risk of a) having the player progress and then be worth considerably more (pk subban) or B) have the player refuse to sign long term afterwards to push for FA (as they may only be 2 or 3 years away) is too great.

With knowing trouba has the Agent he does, I would push for a long term contract immediately

For me it is not about preferring a bridge to long term exactly. It is that I don't think Trouba is sufficiently proven. Disappointing aspects of his play may be entirely a result of having been paired with Stuart. So it is not his fault. He may be suffering from a lack of opportunity. It doesn't matter how it came to be the fact remains that he has not progressed from his rookie year. It is not just about scoring although that is obviously a part of it. I don't see any aspect of his play that lives up to 6x8. I see him being caught out of position in the D zone. I see him making bad turnovers. I see him making lazy plays. I'm not saying that these bad plays outweigh the good play but they are a part of the picture.

We have 2 young players on expiring ELCs. We have to consider Scheifele too. Without putting any actual numbers to it Scheifele has been just plain better. More impactful. He plays hard every game and he plays very well. Longer term Trouba may rise above Scheifele but the last 2 years Scheifele has been the better player. That is subjective. It is based on my eye test for one and for another it is difficult to make a direct comparison between a F and a D. When Scheif is on the ice he is usually in the middle of the play, influencing the game. So whatever I give Trouba I am going to give Scheifele more based on what they have done so far.

Florida just gave Barkov 6x5.9. I think Scheif gets less. So about 5.5. Trouba gets less. So around 5. The Barkov contract was for 6 years not 8. 8 would justify paying a little higher AAV. Adjust accordingly.

 

[Grind]

For me it is not about preferring a bridge to long term exactly. It is that I don't think Trouba is sufficiently proven. Disappointing aspects of his play may be entirely a result of having been paired with Stuart. So it is not his fault. He may be suffering from a lack of opportunity. It doesn't matter how it came to be the fact remains that he has not progressed from his rookie year. It is not just about scoring although that is obviously a part of it. I don't see any aspect of his play that lives up to 6x8. I see him being caught out of position in the D zone. I see him making bad turnovers. I see him making lazy plays. I'm not saying that these bad plays outweigh the good play but they are a part of the picture.

We have 2 young players on expiring ELCs. We have to consider Scheifele too. Without putting any actual numbers to it Scheifele has been just plain better. More impactful. He plays hard every game and he plays very well. Longer term Trouba may rise above Scheifele but the last 2 years Scheifele has been the better player. That is subjective. It is based on my eye test for one and for another it is difficult to make a direct comparison between a F and a D. When Scheif is on the ice he is usually in the middle of the play, influencing the game. So whatever I give Trouba I am going to give Scheifele more based on what they have done so far.

Florida just gave Barkov 6x5.9. I think Scheif gets less. So about 5.5. Trouba gets less. So around 5. The Barkov contract was for 6 years not 8. 8 would justify paying a little higher AAV. Adjust accordingly.

Can you show me how you've determined this ranking of Scheiefeling being the better player?

For a benchmark, how many 6 million + per year dmen have you watched 200 + games of?

Because you'll notice a lot more faults in the infallable doughty/subban/pietrangelo/etc if you watch them as much as we watch the jets.

Statistically (aside from scoring, or even including scoring for a fair bit) He HAS performed very closely to those players.

He hasn't progressed? how so? He's not scoring? What stat's aren't showing improvement (i honestly haven't looked at this).

Furthermore, he IS playing as a top pairing dman. His stats reflect that (other then scoring, but even a snap of something like HERO's or WARRIORS show him to be top pairing level.

I feel like the kid is now being punished because he hasn't developed more from an extremely high starting point already.

One other thing i should suggest because it's something i strongly believe: a lot of what hockey culture/society believes to be "good defense" is being proven to have minimal/negative impact on actual defensive results. This is not a good place to rely on opinions/views/eyetests of the establishment, because a lot of the very building blocks espoused by them are starting to crumble.


You can sit on your hands because you think he's not proven and need to bridge him, but that's exactly how you end up staring at an 8 year 9 million/year contract in the face 2 years from now, or even worse, a player refusing to sign for more then the 2-3 years it will take to get him to UFA.

People say bridge him because they feel there's no risk in it. There is.

I'm more then convinced of Trouba's worth.

Sign the man.

 

[Grind]

So i grabbed some numbers:

Since entering the league
Scheifele's average scoring rank in pp60 5v5: 145
Jacob Troubas average scoring rank in pp60 5v5: 102

Scheif's highest season: (this year) 50
Troubas highest season, first year: 20

Scheifele's lowest season (14-15): 219
Trouba's lowest season (14-15): 157

If you check their warriors:

Trouba ranks higher then scheifele in all fields except for point production, where scheifele's is higher. Their averag ranking across all fields is 1.86 for scheifele, and 1.57 for trouba.

If you check their hero's it's very similar, trouba exceeds scheifele in all catagories except for shot supression .

their average rankings are 2.14 for scheifele and 1.714 for Trouba.

lower is better for those numbers as 1 = first linter 4= fourth line

So you can say "without numbers scheifele's been the better player" and it's accurate, because by every number I can find, Trouba's been the better player.

Now, i will allow that their may be value in Scheifele trending up verses trending down on scoring, but that's not actually accurate (unless you assume the most recent numbers are always indicative of a trend starting, which is very foolish)

Both players were worse in their second year then their first year.

 

[JetsFan815]

You can sit on your hands because you think he's not proven and need to bridge him, but that's exactly how you end up staring at an 8 year 9 million/year contract in the face 2 years from now, or even worse, a player refusing to sign for more then the 2-3 years it will take to get him to UFA.

People say bridge him because they feel there's no risk in it. There is.

If he makes 9 million a year he's probably putting up seasons like Subban and Karlsson and being a Norris candidate. No one would complain paying him that esp since we have 0 cap issues.

The risk that would be unacceptable is we sign him to 6 million contract now and learn in a couple of years that he is going to be what he is now. This team cannot afford bad contracts considering the management has shown zero inclination for getting rid of them. No team ever shed too many tears over signing aplayer to a bridge deal and letting them prove themselves, on the other hand lots of teams have lost their shirt over signing unproven young players to big money contracts based on potential and hope

 

[Grind]

If he makes 9 million a year he's probably putting up seasons like Subban and Karlsson and being a Norris candidate. No one would complain paying him that esp since we have 0 cap issues.

The risk that would be unacceptable is we sign him to 6 million contract now and learn in a couple of years that he is going to be what he is now. This team cannot afford bad contracts considering the management has shown zero inclination for getting rid of them. No team ever shed too many tears over signing aplayer to a bridge deal and letting them prove themselves, on the other hand lots of teams have lost their shirt over signing unproven young players to big money contracts based on potential and hope

Bogo was a bad contract and was moved succesfully.

Bogo made 5 mil a year did he not?

Trouba has been a far better player then Bogo thus far.

I would comfortably say trouba has been 20% better then bogo and thus worth 6 mil.

This would mean his contract should still be movable.

Honestly, I'm totally at odds with how down some people here are on Trouba. I have not seen the deficiencies and issues most are ragging on. I see a guy very similar to Buff who takes risk but more often then not creates 2-3 scoring chances for the one he gives up.

To be clear, i'm not saying he's 9 million dollar a year a player now.

I'm saying i'm 100% certain he's a 5.5-6 mil a year player now. i'm 85% certain he'll be a 6.5 mil a year player over the course of his 8 year contract.

i'm saying that waiting for that extra 15% of certainty carries more cost and risk within it then people realise.

 

[JetsFan815]

Can someone post Trouba's Corsi numbers since being pulled away from Stu? Not that it would prove much, many players have looked like legit top4 D playing with Buff only to come down to earth moving away from him (Clitsome, Chiarot)

 

[Grind]

Can someone post Trouba's Corsi numbers since being pulled away from Stu? Not that it would prove much, many players have looked like legit top4 D playing with Buff only to come down to earth moving away from him (Clitsome, Chiarot)

trouba's numbers are sky high with everyone not Stuart.

More importantly i think stu's numbers are far worse away from trouba.

It's also important to note, the player playing with buff's numbers were generally in the "average second liner" catagory and falling off to barely third pairing/replacement level away from him.

Trouba's are in the Elite top pairing catagory with Byfuglien.

 

[JetsFan815]

Bogo was a bad contract and was moved succesfully.

Bogo made 5 mil a year did he not?

Trouba has been a far better player then Bogo thus far.

I would comfortably say trouba has been 20% better then bogo and thus worth 6 mil.

This would mean his contract should still be movable.

Honestly, I'm totally at odds with how down some people here are on Trouba. I have not seen the deficiencies and issues most are ragging on. I see a guy very similar to Buff who takes risk but more often then not creates 2-3 scoring chances for the one he gives up.

To be clear, i'm not saying he's 9 million dollar a year a player now.

I'm saying i'm 100% certain he's a 5.5-6 mil a year player now. i'm 85% certain he'll be a 6.5 mil a year player over the course of his 8 year contract.

i'm saying that waiting for that extra 15% of certainty carries more cost and risk within it then people realise.

One bad contract and us getting away with it with Bogo doesn't justify another.

If we sign him on a 2 year 3 million/year dollar bridge deal similar to the one signed by Kulikov and Subban. And then if he becomes a top2 defenseman over that contract we can sign him long term at 7.5 mill per for 8 years (that would be the third highest salary in the league for D men so we can agree that that is an optimistic best case scenario if Trouba reaches his ceiling. I don't think Trouba is going to put up the unprecedented offensive numbers like Subban has so we can take out the extreme 9 million datapoint). That structure has us paying Trouba 66 millon over 10 years at 6.6 million/year average, compared to 6 million average that we might pay him right now if we sign him long term. In the case of the bridge deal we are also getting 2 extra UFA years, plus you know what you are spending on and have dramatically reduced your risk.

 

[Grind]

One bad contract and us getting away with it with Bogo doesn't justify another.

If we sign him on a 2 year 3 million/year dollar bridge deal similar to the one signed by Kulikov and Subban. And then if he becomes a top2 defenseman over that contract we can sign him long term at 7.5 mill per for 8 years (that would be the third highest salary in the league for D men so we can agree that that is an optimistic best case scenario if Trouba reaches his ceiling. I don't think Trouba is going to put up the unprecedented offensive numbers like Subban has so we can take out the extreme 9 million datapoint). That structure has us paying Trouba 66 millon over 10 years at 6.6 million/year average, compared to 6 million average that we might pay him right now if we sign him long term. In the case of the bridge deal we are also getting 2 extra UFA years, plus you know what you are spending on and have dramatically reduced your risk.

I don't agree with that. Trouba is a top pairing defensemen right now.

My other concern is his agent.

If he takes a three year deal he's what, 2 years from UFA?

Whose to say hell take that long term deal?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Can you show me how you've determined this ranking of Scheiefeling being the better player?

For a benchmark, how many 6 million + per year dmen have you watched 200 + games of?

Because you'll notice a lot more faults in the infallable doughty/subban/pietrangelo/etc if you watch them as much as we watch the jets.

Statistically (aside from scoring, or even including scoring for a fair bit) He HAS performed very closely to those players.

He hasn't progressed? how so? He's not scoring? What stat's aren't showing improvement (i honestly haven't looked at this).

Furthermore, he IS playing as a top pairing dman. His stats reflect that (other then scoring, but even a snap of something like HERO's or WARRIORS show him to be top pairing level.

I feel like the kid is now being punished because he hasn't developed more from an extremely high starting point already.

One other thing i should suggest because it's something i strongly believe: a lot of what hockey culture/society believes to be "good defense" is being proven to have minimal/negative impact on actual defensive results. This is not a good place to rely on opinions/views/eyetests of the establishment, because a lot of the very building blocks espoused by them are starting to crumble.


You can sit on your hands because you think he's not proven and need to bridge him, but that's exactly how you end up staring at an 8 year 9 million/year contract in the face 2 years from now, or even worse, a player refusing to sign for more then the 2-3 years it will take to get him to UFA.

People say bridge him because they feel there's no risk in it. There is.

I'm more then convinced of Trouba's worth.

Sign the man.

No I can't 'show you' that Scheif is the 'better' player. Watch any 1 game that he plays. Pick any 1. Find the puck and you will find Scheifele. I'm not going to attempt to debate stats with you Grind. You would grind me into the dirt. Honestly I think Scheif's edge in this is so large and so obvious that there should be no need to resort to stats.

I know that all players make mistakes. I know that if it is mistakes you are looking for you will find them. I'm not looking for Trouba mistakes. I see a bad play and THEN look for the culprit. I keep finding #8 a high % of the times I look.

So he has performed close to those players. Is that close but not quite? Then his pay should be not quite. Plus he trails them in scoring.

Progress? Improvement? He scored ~25% less in year 2 and looks to be ~25% less than that in year 3. It seems to me that he has played mostly with Stu the entire time. What statistical area has he improved in?

I'm aware of the point about 'hockey culture' and what is actually effective but that largely applies to an appreciation for the defensive value of an offensive defenseman. Or am I mistaken about that argument?

I am also aware of the risk inherent in a bridge contract and I am sure you are aware of the risk inherent in a big money long term contract. They are 2 sides of the same coin. The one risk is not greater than the other. That issue is about making an accurate assessment of the player's likely worth going forward. My point is that Trouba hasn't provided enough evidence to justify the combination of long term and big money.

It was easier to justify paying a little on the high side for a long term deal in the era of the ever-rising cap. The cap went down in '14 with the new CBA. When the final numbers are in it will probably be down or at best stagnant for this year. As it stands right now it will likely be down next year. I don't think anyone can forecast beyond that with high accuracy. Stabilizing at next year's level for a couple of more years might be a good guess. The point is that this is a poor time to go long in anticipation of your number appearing relatively small in 3-4 years time.

You are pressing me to defend a bridge deal. That is not my preference. I prefer the longest term possible but only at the right price. The player and his agent should have a hard time choosing to sign long term or to go for a bridge deal. If saying yes to the long term deal is too easy then you have offered too much.

You are pressing me to argue against Trouba being an outstanding player. That is not my position. I still see future Norris winner potential. I just haven't seen much progress in that direction from his rookie year. His rookie year was outstanding for a 19 YO rookie. It was not among the top D men in the league.

If he gets a secure contract for big $$$ is he going to have the drive to excel that will see him climb to that level of the top 10 in the league? Or is he going to live the good life of a 22 YO millionaire athlete? I don't know. I don't see that drive from him. That doesn't mean it isn't there. That kind of thing is hard to see from where I sit. I don't know what kind of attitude he has. It might be great. It might not. Just a lot of unknown with Trouba.

 

[buggs]

I think the key to what Trouba ends up getting will be how he plays after the ASB. His time away from Stuart is still relatively short in comparison to how much he did play with Stuart. Yes, I think it is abundantly clear that he is playing much better with Buff. Management's likely argument is that Chiarot did the same, which is generally true of most Dmen who play with Buff. That's not fair, because Trouba is far superior to Chiarot, but I can see management trying to play that card.

So it's incumbent on Trouba to continue to succeed with Buff (relatively independently of how the team overall performs) for the post-ASB gap. If he does, I think his agent can make an excellent case for Stuart being the boat anchor we know he is and then point back to any production lag on the basis of that and a lack of PP time. If he does I think he's back in the conversation at Hamilton-esque pay scales, even if his point production is relatively far below Hamilton's pre-contract signing rate (40 points).

If he doesn't show with Buff, I think it would be prudent for he and his agent to take a bridge. But I suspect that won't be necessary as long as he's kept away from Stu.

And isn't Trouba only 4 years away from UFA after this season, or does his early start give us another year to work with?

As for Scheifele, he's another bit of a gray area guy. I sure like where he's trending and would very much like to lock him up. Is he spectacular, sure fire first line material? No, but the trend is in that direction. So signing him longer might end up looking like a real bargain if he continues to follow that trend. Somewhere just south of Barkov dollars seems reasonable depending on how the cap dance works out, but with a long term (6-8 years).

 

[complex]

If my reading of the CBA is correct, Trouba will be a UFA after four more seasons. As well, after he plays 10 games next year, he will have arbitration rights as a RFA.

If he really wanted out of Winnipeg, he would have the option of going to arbitration after either a one, two, or three year RFA contract. He can do this as often as he likes until he is a UFA after four more seasons.

I doubt it would come to this, but it is a slim possibility. Trouba and his agent likely want to maximize not only this upcoming contract, but also the next one after that. A six year deal today makes him 28 years old when it expires, which would allow him one last 8 year mega deal if his play warrants it. I would argue that it is much more likely for him to get that mega deal as a 28 year old vs a 30 year old (which he would be if he signed for 8 years today). The league is getting younger and he is seeing first hand how GM's are becoming wary older defensemen (see Byfulgien).

If I am the Jets, I offer Trouba a 2-year bridge deal at 3.5 million per year. I see Trouba countering at 7.5 million x 6 years, and I see a deal between 5.5 to 6 million over 6 years.

 

[Grind]

No I can't 'show you' that Scheif is the 'better' player. Watch any 1 game that he plays. Pick any 1. Find the puck and you will find Scheifele. I'm not going to attempt to debate stats with you Grind. You would grind me into the dirt. Honestly I think Scheif's edge in this is so large and so obvious that there should be no need to resort to stats.

I don't and I suppose therein lies the rub.

I'm still getting a handle on D performance and what to watch for. That's sort of the issue for me. It's easy to "see" what Scheifele does good. I think the good trouba does is far harder to see. If he's not going cost to coast or making a stretch pass to the blueline for a breakout, you don't get excited about it.

But at the end of the day the net impact appears to favor Trouba.

I know that all players make mistakes. I know that if it is mistakes you are looking for you will find them. I'm not looking for Trouba mistakes. I see a bad play and THEN look for the culprit. I keep finding #8 a high % of the times I look.

again, eye test differs here for me.

So he has performed close to those players. Is that close but not quite? Then his pay should be not quite. Plus he trails them in scoring.

he has performed above some of those players in some catagories and below in others. On average i believe has performed slightly below those players. I agree his pay should be "not quite". The difference is what that gap being discussed is right now. 80% of doughty is 6 mil/year now as Gmoney stated. That's about the gap we're talking about.

Progress? Improvement? He scored ~25% less in year 2 and looks to be ~25% less than that in year 3. It seems to me that he has played mostly with Stu the entire time. What statistical area has he improved in?

don't know, that was what i meant by "i hadn't looked into this." i'm having difficulty finding a good easy way to get a relative snapshot of him at each season, though Warriors may do it. I'll take a look.

I'm aware of the point about 'hockey culture' and what is actually effective but that largely applies to an appreciation for the defensive value of an offensive defense-man. Or am I mistaken about that argument?

Trouba is an "offensive defencemen" in the sense that his play is built on extremely high chance creation for his team at the risk of suppression. He generates chances at an elite level. He suppresses chances at 3rd pairing level.

Dman scoring is very strongly tied to power play TOI and is very reliant on his forwards being able to finish. That's why he appears to be an offensive dman who's not creating offense (he's helping create a lot of offense, just no ones finishing it).

I am also aware of the risk inherent in a bridge contract and I am sure you are aware of the risk inherent in a big money long term contract. They are 2 sides of the same coin. The one risk is not greater than the other. That issue is about making an accurate assessment of the player's likely worth going forward. My point is that Trouba hasn't provided enough evidence to justify the combination of long term and big money.

Absolutelyt, it's just the risk of bridge contracts seems tog et completly ignored a lot of the time. I feel there is enough evidence that we can accurately say he will be an effective to pairing dman for the next 8 years. It's a bet i'd make.

...cba stuff... snip...

That's fair, though again, the disagreement simply stems from the evidence. Statistically speaking there's plenty of evidence to suggest 5.5-6 mil/year long term carries no risk.

You are pressing me to argue against Trouba being an outstanding player. That is not my position. I still see future Norris winner potential. I just haven't seen much progress in that direction from his rookie year. His rookie year was outstanding for a 19 YO rookie. It was not among the top D men in the league.

he was 20th in dmen scoring 5v5 p/60. how is that not among the top d men in the league?

The only thing keeping him out of these conversations are box cars and the eye test, both of which we know are very fallable/no more of the story then the numbers he is exceeding at.

If he gets a secure contract for big $$$ is he going to have the drive to excel that will see him climb to that level of the top 10 in the league? Or is he going to live the good life of a 22 YO millionaire athlete? I don't know. I don't see that drive from him. That doesn't mean it isn't there. That kind of thing is hard to see from where I sit. I don't know what kind of attitude he has. It might be great. It might not. Just a lot of unknown with Trouba.

Agreed that we just can't know about such things, but since I can't ever know one way or the other, i dismiss them entirely.


Obviously not my best attribute, I just don't like picking and choosing which rumors/vibes i'll put stock in.

My concern is if he has that kind of attitude, how likely is he to resign here 1-2 years from UFA for a long term deal? And in that situation, will he be worth more then he would be if on a 6 year remaining 6/mil a year contract?

 

[veganhunter]

Based on everything I've seen on here I've changed my position a bit on Trouba. Everything I've looked at he seems to be better than his rookie year, except points. I think maybe I got a bit carried away with my doom and gloom because of the points and dragging Stuart around.

I'd probably wait until the end of the year just to be sure but Stuart really is that bad so just based on making him look like a passable NHL player he should get a lot of credit.