Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 15-16 Part VIII

[Flair Hay]

What's confusing is why someone would take what Dreyer said at face value. Let alone another reporter.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agreed, he shouldn't get a cent more than Hamilton.

Less.

The last 2 years he has failed to live up to his rookie promise. That probably has a lot to do with having been paired with Stu but the bottom line is we haven't seen him justify a big contract. Bridging him might bite us in the butt but so might a big long term deal now. Klingberg is probably not a good comparable because Dallas got away with a very cheap deal there. Hamilton is no better because he got too much. I could see Trouba right in the middle, 6-8 x5. Even that is a gamble.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not really sure that Klingberg is a peer - I think Trouba will be more effective than Klingberg as a defenceman, and you have to take into account the actual defending when you pay a guy. Guys like Subban and Karlsson have a lot of money committed to them but their defending is a bit sub-par. Klingberg is a bit of an outlier, I think - but I wouldn't mind $6m on Trouba. There's no income tax in Texas, either, which certainly helps dollar wise.

The above poster suggested a Dougie Hamilton type contract - I agree with that. His cap hit is 5.75 million, and it's a good comparable.

Of Klingberg, Hamilton, Trouba Klingberg is the name I hear in the same sentence as Norris.

Players like him and Karlsson may not have the greatest traditional defensive skills but they are compensating by more than just their own scoring. All the time they have the puck in the O zone is the best defense even if their team isn't scoring at that particular time. They are defending by driving the play out of their own end into the other team's end. So even though they may appear weak defensively in some ways their net D is good.

Trouba just hasn't played well enough, often enough to justify 6 mil. Not even close.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You can chose to believe that all you want, doesn't make it reality. I doubt there are many people in the hockey fan and business community that won't take Klingberg, Subban, Karlsson over Trouba now and 6 years from now 10 times out of 10. It seems to me your opinion is heavily fogged by homer glasses



In his contract year Hamilton put up #1 DMan esque numbers and still got "just" 5.5 million. Trouba is on pace for less than 20 points in his contract year. I wouldn't even use Hamilton as a comparable for Trouba. Adam Larrson and Kulikov after his ELC is whom Trouba resembles the closest

Much better comparables for Trouba.

 

[Evil Little]

6 years?! What the ****?

Why would they only buy two UFA years??!?!!

Dreger's a ****ing moron.

 

[Smelling Salt]

That seems really rich for Trouba. If the salary topped out at that number then it's more reasonable as long as Trouba continues to progress.

Klingberg:

2,250,000
2,750,000
3,500,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,750,000
6,000,000

AAV 4.25m

Larsson

2,500,000
3,000,000
4,500,000
4,850,000
5,050,000
5,100,000

AAV 4.166

 

[tbcwpg]

Much better comparables for Trouba.

Offensive d-men are always mentioned in the Norris lately.

We often lament Trouba with Stuart and the negative impact that he's had on Trouba over the past couple of seasons. I think he's worth more than Kulikov and Larsson - two defencemen who are considered to be disappointing by many hockey people. Are we saying Trouba is a disappointment? I have no problem with giving Trouba 5.5-6. When Bogosian signed for 7yrs 5.15 the reaction was that it was a great deal - 5.5 today is 5.15 3 years ago, or similar enough that it's a negligible difference.

If we hope that Chevy sticks to under $5mil a year, we're going to have a protracted sit-out situation.

 

[robertocarlos]

Trouba is not worth anywhere near 7 million. More like 4.5million.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Offensive d-men are always mentioned in the Norris lately.

We often lament Trouba with Stuart and the negative impact that he's had on Trouba over the past couple of seasons. I think he's worth more than Kulikov and Larsson - two defencemen who are considered to be disappointing by many hockey people. Are we saying Trouba is a disappointment? I have no problem with giving Trouba 5.5-6. When Bogosian signed for 7yrs 5.15 the reaction was that it was a great deal - 5.5 today is 5.15 3 years ago, or similar enough that it's a negligible difference.

If we hope that Chevy sticks to under $5mil a year, we're going to have a protracted sit-out situation.

You are just ignoring the rest of my post. I think it explains why 'offensive' D men are front and centre for the Norris. Driving the play into the O zone is the best defense there is. If Karlsson and Klingberg are not that great in the corners or in front of their net they make up for it by keeping the puck out of those places.

Maybe Trouba's performance suffered a lot by being with Stu or maybe only a little. We just don't know. He just hasn't shown near enough to justify 5.5+ long term. You want to pay him 6x8 and maybe he is only a 4 mil D. A 4 mil D is not bad and that is exactly what Trouba has been so far ... not bad. He certainly has shown flashes of outstanding but that's all.

Scoring is not the be all and end all for judging but for a quick and dirty comparison it will do. Hamilton scored 83 pts in his first 3 years. Trouba has 61. The big thing is that 29 of them came in his rookie season. Almost half. He is progressing backwards.

He has scored at 3/4 of Hamilton's rate. Pay him accordingly, 4.3. That just happens to be Larsson, Kulikov territory. Whatt'a ya know!

I share the fear of an even bigger number that can follow but I think in Trouba's case a bridge deal might be the best solution. He just has not lived up to his promise yet and it would be massively risky to just assume that he will.

 

[tbcwpg]

You are just ignoring the rest of my post. I think it explains why 'offensive' D men are front and centre for the Norris. Driving the play into the O zone is the best defense there is. If Karlsson and Klingberg are not that great in the corners or in front of their net they make up for it by keeping the puck out of those places.

Maybe Trouba's performance suffered a lot by being with Stu or maybe only a little. We just don't know. He just hasn't shown near enough to justify 5.5+ long term. You want to pay him 6x8 and maybe he is only a 4 mil D. A 4 mil D is not bad and that is exactly what Trouba has been so far ... not bad. He certainly has shown flashes of outstanding but that's all.

Scoring is not the be all and end all for judging but for a quick and dirty comparison it will do. Hamilton scored 83 pts in his first 3 years. Trouba has 61. The big thing is that 29 of them came in his rookie season. Almost half. He is progressing backwards.

He has scored at 3/4 of Hamilton's rate. Pay him accordingly, 4.3. That just happens to be Larsson, Kulikov territory. Whatt'a ya know!

I share the fear of an even bigger number that can follow but I think in Trouba's case a bridge deal might be the best solution. He just has not lived up to his promise yet and it would be massively risky to just assume that he will.

Larsson is also a big negative in the fancy stats category while Trouba has been positive the past two seasons, and last year was 2nd on the team Corsi wise. I think judging him on points alone is unwise. You pay partially for points, sure, but you also play for defence.

I'm not ignoring the rest of the post, I'm commenting that using offensive totals as a judge to pay a player who's primary job is to keep the puck OUT of their own net seems a bit misguided. Should we pay Ehlers when his contract comes up based on how many shot blocks he has?

Keep it under $5.75-6 and I think it's a bargain. Stuart (hopefully) won't be here forever. Perhaps when he's playing with Morrissey or a much better partner, we'll see that he's worth that money.

 

[surixon]

Larsson is also a big negative in the fancy stats category while Trouba has been positive the past two seasons, and last year was 2nd on the team Corsi wise. I think judging him on points alone is unwise. You pay partially for points, sure, but you also play for defence.

I'm not ignoring the rest of the post, I'm commenting that using offensive totals as a judge to pay a player who's primary job is to keep the puck OUT of their own net seems a bit misguided. Should we pay Ehlers when his contract comes up based on how many shot blocks he has?

Keep it under $5.75-6 and I think it's a bargain. Stuart (hopefully) won't be here forever. Perhaps when he's playing with Morrissey or a much better partner, we'll see that he's worth that money.

Yeah. I'm not sure why people seem to think he hasn't lived up to his rookie season. If all you care about is points sure his totals the last couple of years have been disappointing. He has more than lived up to his promise on the defensive side of things. He's even a real good possession player despite playing real tough minutes with a poor partner. Quite frankly I have no issue doing 5.5 million per as I believe he will be worth it even if his offense doesn't materialize as hoped. If it does we have a bargain.

 

[MardyBum]

8 year deal or a bridge, 6 makes zero sense.

 

[canuckzote5]

Haven't seen any discussion on this. Is Chevy for real? Hopefully Dreger has wrong info here.That's higher than Victor Hedman. The same as Doughty and Karlsson for a player who hasn't even come close to that level. I will be sick if we sign Trouba to that deal. Doughty level money for a defenseman with Adam Larsson/Kulikov level results who is an RFA with no leverage, during a time when a guy like Klingberg just signed a deal for less than 4.5 million

For the sake of this franchise, lets hope Dreger has his facts wrong

The scary part about this is the unknown of offer sheets that might come Chevy's way for Trouba or Scheif (please not both). The positive side of this is that they control his rights so even if they do pay him what he wants or match an offer sheet, he will be considered "worth" his money so he holds value in the market. More of an asset than an expense.

 

[Huffer]

Not really sure that Klingberg is a peer - I think Trouba will be more effective than Klingberg as a defenceman, and you have to take into account the actual defending when you pay a guy. Guys like Subban and Karlsson have a lot of money committed to them but their defending is a bit sub-par. Klingberg is a bit of an outlier, I think - but I wouldn't mind $6m on Trouba. There's no income tax in Texas, either, which certainly helps dollar wise.

The above poster suggested a Dougie Hamilton type contract - I agree with that. His cap hit is 5.75 million, and it's a good comparable.

True, Klingberg may not be the exact comparable, just one of a few possibles. But he's close enough IMO to say that 7 million or even 6.5 would be an overpay.

I wouldn't mind something closer to Hamilton as well, but that's really the upper end IMO because I think even that one was pretty rich considering the comparables.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Larsson is also a big negative in the fancy stats category while Trouba has been positive the past two seasons, and last year was 2nd on the team Corsi wise. I think judging him on points alone is unwise. You pay partially for points, sure, but you also play for defence.

I'm not ignoring the rest of the post, I'm commenting that using offensive totals as a judge to pay a player who's primary job is to keep the puck OUT of their own net seems a bit misguided. Should we pay Ehlers when his contract comes up based on how many shot blocks he has?

Keep it under $5.75-6 and I think it's a bargain. Stuart (hopefully) won't be here forever. Perhaps when he's playing with Morrissey or a much better partner, we'll see that he's worth that money.

I conceded at the start that scoring was just for a quick and dirty comparison. Larsson doesn't figure in the part about Norris consideration. Klingberg and Karlsson do. Trouba does not. Hamilton might be a good comparable for Trouba but I don't agree his contract is. He got paid for promise. Overpaid a bit I think, although in 3 years it might seem like a bargain. That is if he lives up to that promise. The same applies to Trouba. If we sign him 6x8 and if he fulfills his promise that will seem like a bargain long before it expires. If not it will seem like a boat anchor.

How about we add Hamonic to the list of comparables? 7 yeares 27 mil. In his ELC years he scored 60 points. Just 1 less than Trouba and his 3rd season was the lockout shortened one. This season isn't over yet so they compare quite well. He is also very good defensively. Trouba has more upside but through their first 3 years they compare very closely.

 

[veganhunter]

You can chose to believe that all you want, doesn't make it reality. I doubt there are many people in the hockey fan and business community that won't take Klingberg, Subban, Karlsson over Trouba now and 6 years from now 10 times out of 10. It seems to me your opinion is heavily fogged by homer glasses



In his contract year Hamilton put up #1 DMan esque numbers and still got "just" 5.5 million. Trouba is on pace for less than 20 points in his contract year. I wouldn't even use Hamilton as a comparable for Trouba. Adam Larrson and Kulikov after his ELC is whom Trouba resembles the closest

I feel the same way in regards to the bold. We might have a better idea of what Trouba actually is (and where he is likely headed) if Maurice didn't saddle him with the corpse that is Mark Stuart for 2 years, but I digress.

 

[tbcwpg]

I conceded at the start that scoring was just for a quick and dirty comparison. Larsson doesn't figure in the part about Norris consideration. Klingberg and Karlsson do. Trouba does not. Hamilton might be a good comparable for Trouba but I don't agree his contract is. He got paid for promise. Overpaid a bit I think, although in 3 years it might seem like a bargain. That is if he lives up to that promise. The same applies to Trouba. If we sign him 6x8 and if he fulfills his promise that will seem like a bargain long before it expires. If not it will seem like a boat anchor.

How about we add Hamonic to the list of comparables? 7 yeares 27 mil. In his ELC years he scored 60 points. Just 1 less than Trouba and his 3rd season was the lockout shortened one. This season isn't over yet so they compare quite well. He is also very good defensively. Trouba has more upside but through their first 3 years they compare very closely.

I think more recent contracts will be used as comparables. I think the Islanders got a steal with Hamonic at that price and it's why his trade price has been rumoured to be so high. Trouba and his agent will of course be asking to be paid on promise as well as current results. If we can get Trouba signed for under $5mil a year, I'll be extremely surprised (and pleased). I just see your valuation and comparables as being a bit on the low end. It might be what Chevy comes in with, but we'll likely end up somewhere in the $5-$6mil range, and I don't think it's a "failure" if he gets Hamilton money.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah. I'm not sure why people seem to think he hasn't lived up to his rookie season. If all you care about is points sure his totals the last couple of years have been disappointing. He has more than lived up to his promise on the defensive side of things. He's even a real good possession player despite playing real tough minutes with a poor partner. Quite frankly I have no issue doing 5.5 million per as I believe he will be worth it even if his offense doesn't materialize as hoped. If it does we have a bargain.

What I don't like about Trouba's scoring is the trajectory. Down each year. We all know that he has been hampered by Stuart but no one knows exactly how much or in which direction. It is a reasonable assumption that he has been holding back to cover for his partner but I don't want to pay based on an assumption. There are also some hints about his commitment. He doesn't compare well to Scheifele in that department but that may be unfair because few measure up to Scheif that way. His play early this season looked like he simply wasn't in especially good shape. He seemed to tire mid way through games. A real thing or imagined? IDK. Something to consider though.

I think 5 mil is more appropriate but I set my upper limit at about 5.5. That feels like a stretch especially for 8 years. Going 6x5 could set us up for a really big number next contract. It is risky either way. I'm just not sufficiently confident in Trouba to feel comfortable with any of the likely options.

I think whatever Trouba gets Scheif deserves more. If we give Trouba 8x6 how do you feel about 8x6.5 for Scheif? If that is the kind of contracts we are going to have to give RFAs then it is a good thing that we have the lowest payroll in the league to start. In another 2 years Ehlers will need 8x8 and a year or two later Connor needs 8x9. And Hellebuyck will need to be paid. All with the $C in the crapper and the cap going down.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Trouba's been dragging a damned anchor around for the last two years. I'm not that worried about his progression, and if we can lock him up for 7-8 years (6 is silly - bridge him instead), do it.

 

[Jimmyjets]

There will be a new market set for the 21-22 year old RFA Dman because there are so many guys that need new contracts.

If Trouba's demands are high let other teams "go first" to set the market.

I think Avco cup posted a list in a different thread but here are guys needing new contracts that are RFAs. (Seeing this list I'm not worried at all about an offer sheet for Trouba because some of these other teams have cap problems and would be way better targets): In no particular order:

- Seth Jones
- Hampus Lindholm
- Olli Maatta
- Ryan Murray
- Morgan Rielly
- Matt Dumba
- Ryan Murphy
- Rasmus Ristolainin
- Jacob Trouba

Once some of these guys sign it will start to firm up the market more than just Dougie Hamliton's contract. If I'm Chevy I just sit back and let the market be set by other contracts if Trouba's reported salary demands are true.

 

[wintersej]

You can chose to believe that all you want, doesn't make it reality. I doubt there are many people in the hockey fan and business community that won't take Klingberg, Subban, Karlsson over Trouba now and 6 years from now 10 times out of 10. It seems to me your opinion is heavily fogged by homer glasses



In his contract year Hamilton put up #1 DMan esque numbers and still got "just" 5.5 million. Trouba is on pace for less than 20 points in his contract year. I wouldn't even use Hamilton as a comparable for Trouba. Adam Larrson and Kulikov after his ELC is whom Trouba resembles the closest

Lurking Bruins fan.

Hamilton put up points but was a defensive nightmare. Even before Hamilton bargained his way out of Boston, most Bruins fans would have dealt Hamilton for Trouba.

 

[wintersej]

Would I be correct that one of Buff, Trouba and Myers will probably be on the way out given the contract demands of the first two?

I would assume that Myers would be the one the Jets are most apt to move.

1) How has he been?
2) What would he cost? In my mind (from Boston's point of view) I keep thinking a deal with Zboril (LHD, top pairing potential) as the center piece.

 

[RustyCat]

Was just looking on General Fanager and was surprised to see that Ladd has a No-trade-clause. I was unaware of this and would imagine it really throws a wrench into any contract discussions.

Also surprised to see that Clitsome's contract is up after this year so there will be some space there, one would think, to put towards, say, Buff?

Lastly, I am big fan of him because of what he brings in character, but Thorburn has not been good at all the last 20 games or so. Quite ineffective at 1.2m/yr. The guy needs to up his game.

For RFA's I think Schief will probably look at 5 years @ 4.9m/yr, Armia do a 3 yr @ 1.6/yr, Lowry at 4 years @ 2.2/yr and Trouba 6 years @6.2m.

 

[surixon]

Would I be correct that one of Buff, Trouba and Myers will probably be on the way out given the contract demands of the first two?

I would assume that Myers would be the one the Jets are most apt to move.

1) How has he been?
2) What would he cost? In my mind (from Boston's point of view) I keep thinking a deal with Zboril (LHD, top pairing potential) as the center piece.

Myers has been very good as of late and continues to grow his game. Given that Trouba is playing on the left side now I don't really see a need to move any of the three anytime soon (Barring the Jets not being able to come to a contract agreement with Buff prior to the deadline). What I think is likely to happen is that Morrissey will gradually phase Enstrom out of the top four over the next two years and the team won't reup Toby to save some cash.

 

[Gm0ney]

The scary part about this is the unknown of offer sheets that might come Chevy's way for Trouba or Scheif (please not both). The positive side of this is that they control his rights so even if they do pay him what he wants or match an offer sheet, he will be considered "worth" his money so he holds value in the market. More of an asset than an expense.

I think it's pretty unlikely that either Scheifele or Trouba sees an offer sheet. The Jets have the room to match - unlike Chicago with Saad or Boston with Hamilton last year. A falling or stagnant cap is really going to limit the number of teams that could even make a play. And I believe GMs are pretty reluctant to drive up RFA values anyway. Everyone's got their own guys to worry about signing.