Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 15-16 Part 1

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Hunter368

RIP lomiller1, see you in the next life buddy.
Nov 8, 2011
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You consider it unlikely that Ehlers outperforms Buff on forward, Copp outperforms one of the worst fourth liners in the league last season, Armia outperforms Peluso, etc?

Lowry last season was mostly a defensive player. He didn't have much of an offensive game to speak of. His overall contribution to the team was essentially his defensive game. Why do you consider it unlikely that Petan/Ehlers/Morrissey perform well enough offensively to make up for their worse defense?

Ehlers/Buff - Not sure what your expecting from Ehlers his first year. 30-35 points? Ehlers would likely closely reach Buffs offensive production as a forward. But Buff does more as a forward than just deliver points....Ehlers can't do that.....and that does have a positive impact on the game even if it doesn't result in points for Buff.

Copp/Slater - Don't really care.....any Copp does on the 4th line offensively isn't significant.

Armia/Peluso - Not sure why your comparing these two. Are you suggesting Armia plays on our 4th line only? Peluso's minutes aren't predicated on him being the best offensive player available. I wouldn't say you can compare the two.

Rookies defensive play - I'll be interested in seeing how PMO responds to rookies poor defensive play.....historically he doesn't respond well to it.....but he might change his Pov if they knowingly are going with a youth movement. Lowry never really hurt us defensively so any offensive production helped us. A guy like Ehlers might score 35 points but is much worse defensively, might have a less positive net impact in his first year than Lowry did.
 

YWGinYYZ

Registered User
Jul 3, 2011
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Rookies defensive play - I'll be interested in seeing how PMO responds to rookies poor defensive play.....historically he doesn't respond well to it.....but he might change his Pov if they knowingly are going with a youth movement. Lowry never really hurt us defensively so any offensive production helped us. A guy like Ehlers might score 35 points but is much worse defensively, might have a less positive net impact in his first year than Lowry did.

Read my note about strong defensive pairings for the forwards. You should be able to support Stafford, Wheels, and Ehlers with those pairings. Consider them the 'finishers', rather than the defensively responsible wingers.
 

Hunter368

RIP lomiller1, see you in the next life buddy.
Nov 8, 2011
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Im really not sure I follow you. You seem to think that it's a foregone conclusion we regress next year because a couple of rookies will play secondary minutes on the team.

Every team plays rookies and many of those teams don't regress. Why can't Ehlers have a Forsberg type year, he clearly is talented enough to pull it off.

You don't account for internal growth of out young players already on the roster. Both Trouba and Scheifele took big steps last year and I expect that to continue.

The team was horribly undisciplined last year, they can't possible be as bad next year. Becoming league average with regards to penalties substantially improves the team.

Better luck with injuries does as well.

There are plenty of factors that can lead this team to having a better year.

Regression = Not just to do with youth movement, but part of it.

Injuries - As bad as it was last year, it didn't really hurt our results. Team played very well and produced very well during those periods which was impressive.

True Trouba and Mark will incrementally improve again. Don't see this making up for the negatives.

Pavs & Hutch going to deliver the same combined sv% or better? Pavs going to match his career high sv%?
 

Hunter368

RIP lomiller1, see you in the next life buddy.
Nov 8, 2011
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Read my note about strong defensive pairings for the forwards. You should be able to support Stafford, Wheels, and Ehlers with those pairings. Consider them the 'finishers', rather than the defensively responsible wingers.

Your too fast posting lol, slow down. I'm getting to your post. :)
 

sully1410

#EggosForEleven
Dec 28, 2011
15,546
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How.much do we think that Scheifele and Trouba are going to improve this year. I don't think there is a doubt that Trouba is going to be a great DMan, but what we do honestly expect Scheifele's ceiling to be? Is he ever going to be that ninty point centre that they the Jets hoped he would be, or is he going be a sixty-seventy point player or is he going to be more like Bryan Little?
 

surixon

Registered User
Jul 12, 2003
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How.much do we think that Scheifele and Trouba are going to improve this year. I don't think there is a doubt that Trouba is going to be a great DMan, but what we do honestly expect Scheifele's ceiling to be? Is he ever going to be that ninty point centre that they the Jets hoped he would be, or is he going be a sixty-seventy point player or is he going to be more like Bryan Little?

I see 65 to 70 points as his ceiling. He is currently a 50 point player. I expect to see his ES/60 climb from 1.6 to around 1.85-1.90 this year which result in greater offensive contributions at ES. He can also improve further on what were some pretty positive pp numbers last year while continuing to be very strong possession player.
 

EpicGingy

Registered User
Jul 30, 2012
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How.much do we think that Scheifele and Trouba are going to improve this year. I don't think there is a doubt that Trouba is going to be a great DMan, but what we do honestly expect Scheifele's ceiling to be? Is he ever going to be that ninty point centre that they the Jets hoped he would be, or is he going be a sixty-seventy point player or is he going to be more like Bryan Little?

Did the Jets ever say anything about him becoming a ninety point centre?

The most I can see out of him is 70, but I think he'll be within 60-70 most of his career.
 

Romang67

BitterSwede
Jan 2, 2011
29,823
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Ehlers/Buff - Not sure what your expecting from Ehlers his first year. 30-35 points? Ehlers would likely closely reach Buffs offensive production as a forward. But Buff does more as a forward than just deliver points....Ehlers can't do that.....and that does have a positive impact on the game even if it doesn't result in points for Buff.

Copp/Slater - Don't really care.....any Copp does on the 4th line offensively isn't significant.

Armia/Peluso - Not sure why your comparing these two. Are you suggesting Armia plays on our 4th line only? Peluso's minutes aren't predicated on him being the best offensive player available. I wouldn't say you can compare the two.

Rookies defensive play - I'll be interested in seeing how PMO responds to rookies poor defensive play.....historically he doesn't respond well to it.....but he might change his Pov if they knowingly are going with a youth movement. Lowry never really hurt us defensively so any offensive production helped us. A guy like Ehlers might score 35 points but is much worse defensively, might have a less positive net impact in his first year than Lowry did.

Offensively? I imagine Copp being better at every aspect of the game except for faceoffs.

And I expect Ehlers to do more 5v5 as a forward than Byfuglien did. For some reason, I think people forget exactly how invisible Byfuglien is as a forward. Byfuglien isn't even good as a possession player as a forward. He's just big and there.

Armia compared to Peluso, because I anticipate that's the spot that Armia will start on.
 

KurtG8

Registered User
Apr 4, 2015
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90 point center's dont exist anymore. Benn was the top scorer in the league with 87 points last year. And while i think yes you will see a couple of them creep over 90 points again, id say its fairly unrealistic to think any of the current jets at any position have the potential for a 90 point season(except maybe Ehlers in a couple years).

But that all being said we dont need 90 point players we need a balanced team, which is what we have imo.
 

Aavco Cup

"I can make you cry in this room"
Sep 5, 2013
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Did the Jets ever say anything about him becoming a ninety point centre?

The most I can see out of him is 70, but I think he'll be within 60-70 most of his career.

90 points would have won the scoring title last season. I don't think anyone expects that TBH
 

sully1410

#EggosForEleven
Dec 28, 2011
15,546
3
Calgary, Alta.
You.guys are acting like it was eons ago that there were in ninety point players on the NHL. It really wasn't. And obviously they thought Scheifele had to potential to reach that height because his NHL comparable was Ryan Getzlaf.
 

Hunter368

RIP lomiller1, see you in the next life buddy.
Nov 8, 2011
27,071
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Where the heck did I say I had ANY faith in our goaltending? Strawman. I stated if we DID get the same goaltending we got last year, we're likely in. If not, then it'll be a struggle. No more, no less. Don't put words into my mouth, and by all means, go read a few of my posts in the Pav thread to see what I think of him.

I got that impression b/c I asked in my post if you thought this was as likely as regression and you said yes.....maybe we misunderstood each other.


Disagree, but I guess we'll see. Scheifele and Lowry made nice progression last year - I think we have room to move two more rookies into the line-up, and with the dynamic talent of Ehlers, they could be positive contributors to the Jets.

Ladd - Little - X
Perreault - Scheifele - X
X - Lowry - Burmi

All three of those centre / winger pairs are very responsible defensively - that gives the Jets room to slot in one of Stafford, Wheeler, and probably Ehlers to provide offense, and to be carried by the other two defensively. I think we also see Copp in for Slater on the 4th line. Two rooks - that's not a whole bunch, and it's no more than we had last year.

I agree two isn't a lot, but they won't has as much of a positive net effect as some vets in those positions. Keep in mind were talking about if they will hurt us a tiny bit vs a vet in the same position. I'm not arguing we shouldn't do it, just explaining why it will have a small negative effect.



Given that the FA season is a couple months long, it's probably best not to hold your breath. ;) I think we see another vet signed, myself.

I've learn to wait and see with Chevy. But as I said as well it's only July 3rd, lots of time to add one more.


Ridiculous statement is ridiculous. If this is what you think of my analysis of the situation, then I can understand why you think I'm nuts. Your take on likely vs. unlikely is as valid or as invalid as mine as far as I'm concerned.

I don't think your nuts, you know I respect your opinion. I was just using humor to make a point.

BTW: I predicted around this time last year (after the Perreault signing) that the Jets would finish in 8th, and in the PO's. Your prediction?

My prediction was bang on as well. I stated we would be a bubble team, either getting in or missing by a hair. I even added if we did get in we would likely lose in 4, max 5 games. I certainly can produce posts to prove it.

I will admit that's possible - I don't speak in absolutes. I do prefer to be positive until the sky actually falls on my head though - just my persona.

In life I'm like that as well. But in regards to the Jets, I prefer to be as honest and realistic as possible and more times than not I'm right. I hate being disappointed with the Jets so I always temper my excitement.

I think we see a signing. 7.5x4 or 5 is my guess.

I would be surprised but very pleased with that contract if it happened.

Are you kidding? :laugh: Terribly. The pitchforks will be out.

Agreed

With the same calmness and conviction to their path that they have in the past, which will only serve to further infuriate some. I don't necessarily agree with all their moves, but you have to admit they're pretty steadfast in their resolve.

Agreed. My biggest issue with Chevy is I feel he has tunnel vision and doesn't look at all possible options to improve the team. But overall I like him, despite my sarcasm at times (that's just my humor).

I think we'll see him signed very soon as well, which will put that to bed. In any event, I WANT all the vets to be talking about the SC, and not prospect development - that's their job.

Agreed
 

KurtG8

Registered User
Apr 4, 2015
173
23
You.guys are acting like it was eons ago that there were in ninety point players on the NHL. It really wasn't. And obviously they thought Scheifele had to potential to reach that height because his NHL comparable was Ryan Getzlaf.

Whom has only broken 90 points once in his 10 year career. and it was in 08-09

Thats an eon in Hockey/Dog years.
 

Bob E

Registered User
Aug 20, 2011
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If Scheifele can reach 70 pts during his career, that would be fantastic for the Jets. Little seems to be 'stuck' around 50+ pts (except for his one 64 pt season), basically due to not putting up significant assist numbers. Little seems to be good for 20+ g and 25-30 assists. Scheifele is a better playmaker, and should continue to have strong assist numbers.

I can see Scheifele scoring 20+ goals in a season, could have last year with all the posts and missed nets, and getting 45+ assists playing with offensive players (especially with more PP time), so 70 pts definitely possible, imo.
 

Hunter368

RIP lomiller1, see you in the next life buddy.
Nov 8, 2011
27,071
23,772
Offensively? I imagine Copp being better at every aspect of the game except for faceoffs.

And I expect Ehlers to do more 5v5 as a forward than Byfuglien did. For some reason, I think people forget exactly how invisible Byfuglien is as a forward. Byfuglien isn't even good as a possession player as a forward. He's just big and there.

Armia compared to Peluso, because I anticipate that's the spot that Armia will start on.

I see Copp being about the same defensively in his first year. Face off worse. Slater produced well last year offensively being healthy (and contract year :)). Will Copp produce more than Slater last year? Not sure about that, Slater had 13 points....Copp will be pressed to do that or more. Let's say hypothetically Copp produces a dream season.....gets 20 points (realistically he won't) the 7 points isn't significant enough to talk about (but it won't happen anyways). Copp will be very lucky to get 15 points if he plays the entire year IMO.

Ehlers produce more than Buff 5v5....your changing our discussion now....but ok I'll bite. I agree Buff is not as effective at forward as he is at D......but he was hardly invisible at forward.....he just didn't produce points for himself at the same rate as he does at D (that doesn't mean his play didn't help the team win). At forward I would expect over an entire year Buff to produce about 30-40 points......expect roughly the same from Ehlers (closer to the 30-35 points) in his first year (without the physical play Buff gives).
 

Hunter368

RIP lomiller1, see you in the next life buddy.
Nov 8, 2011
27,071
23,772
If Scheifele can reach 70 pts during his career, that would be fantastic for the Jets. Little seems to be 'stuck' around 50+ pts (except for his one 64 pt season), basically due to not putting up significant assist numbers. Little seems to be good for 20+ g and 25-30 assists. Scheifele is a better playmaker, and should continue to have strong assist numbers.

I can see Scheifele scoring 20+ goals in a season, could have last year with all the posts and missed nets, and getting 45+ assists playing with offensive players (especially with more PP time), so 70 pts definitely possible, imo.

Agreed. Drives me crazy how often Mark misses the freaks no net......just hit the net and force the guy to make a save.....with the possibility of a rebound happens. :shakehead
 

fmrdh

Registered User
Mar 5, 2013
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Agreed. Drives me crazy how often Mark misses the freaks no net......just hit the net and force the guy to make a save.....with the possibility of a rebound happens. :shakehead

He also must have hit the post/crossbar 10 times last season.
 

YWGinYYZ

Registered User
Jul 3, 2011
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Toronto
The thing about hitting posts - they're trying to beat the goalie, not put it into their logo. If they did, we'd be complaining about that instead. ;)
 

Romang67

BitterSwede
Jan 2, 2011
29,823
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Evanston, IL
I see Copp being about the same defensively in his first year. Face off worse. Slater produced well last year offensively being healthy (and contract year :)). Will Copp produce more than Slater last year? Not sure about that, Slater had 13 points....Copp will be pressed to do that or more. Let's say hypothetically Copp produces a dream season.....gets 20 points (realistically he won't) the 7 points isn't significant enough to talk about (but it won't happen anyways). Copp will be very lucky to get 15 points if he plays the entire year IMO.

Ehlers produce more than Buff 5v5....your changing our discussion now....but ok I'll bite. I agree Buff is not as effective at forward as he is at D......but he was hardly invisible at forward.....he just didn't produce points for himself at the same rate as he does at D (that doesn't mean his play didn't help the team win). At forward I would expect over an entire year Buff to produce about 30-40 points......expect roughly the same from Ehlers (closer to the 30-35 points) in his first year (without the physical play Buff gives).

Well, since Buff was never a forward on the PP, that doesn't really play into this discussion. He didn't produce points for anyone with consistency as a forward. He hits someone once in a while, but he's really bad as a possession player and doesn't score more than (or even as much as, IIRC) your average third liner. I'd be disappointed if Ehlers doesn't produce at a rate that is higher than that.

And I think you're wrong about Copp. Partly because Slater was that bad defensively last season, and partly because I think Copp will be better defensively than you give him credit for. And that's what we want from our 4th line, no? Go in there, create some energy, don't be useless buffoons in the defensive zone, don't ruin things?
 

Hunter368

RIP lomiller1, see you in the next life buddy.
Nov 8, 2011
27,071
23,772
The thing about hitting posts - they're trying to beat the goalie, not put it into their logo. If they did, we'd be complaining about that instead. ;)

Preference for a shot (other than a goal :)) would not be into the logo but low into the pads (assuming you thought you had a very low % to high glove/blocker) resulting in a rebound. Rebounds, rebounds, rebounds. Rebounds can turn 15 goal guys into 25 goal guys quickly. IMHO
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,075
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If the Jets retain the same possession game as they did last year, and cut back substantially on their PK time (to league average), they are going to have a very successful year.

My guess is that they are going to take a bit of a step back with more youth (at least early in the year), and will be in a struggle for a playoff spot. But they we'll see some important development from their younger players that will bode well for future success.
 

Hunter368

RIP lomiller1, see you in the next life buddy.
Nov 8, 2011
27,071
23,772
Well, since Buff was never a forward on the PP, that doesn't really play into this discussion. He didn't produce points for anyone with consistency as a forward. He hits someone once in a while, but he's really bad as a possession player and doesn't score more than (or even as much as, IIRC) your average third liner. I'd be disappointed if Ehlers doesn't produce at a rate that is higher than that.

I don't disagree with anything you say about Buff. But I just don't agree if you think Ehlers is going to out produce (offensively) Buff at forward. If I'm reading you right sounds like your saying Ehlers will produce more than 35 points this year, I don't believe that he will.

And I think you're wrong about Copp. Partly because Slater was that bad defensively last season, and partly because I think Copp will be better defensively than you give him credit for. And that's what we want from our 4th line, no? Go in there, create some energy, don't be useless buffoons in the defensive zone, don't ruin things?

Agreed.....just don't see Copp making any significantly more impact than Slater did last year.....in Copps first year in the NHL.....assuming he makes the team. Time will tell on both points though, that's why we play the games.
 
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