Speculation: Jets General Rumour, Trade, Free Agent and Waiver Speculation 15-16 Part 1

[veganhunter]

Wow, alot of doom and gloom here...unwarranted....Ehlers, Petan, Copp and Armia criminally underrated.

They are going to make a big contribution this year. No need for hand wringing despair.

Chevy is going to give his youth a shot, if he needs a vet or two, he'll add one.

He's earned the benefit of the doubt.

I desperately want to believe this but I have a gut feeling we are in store for a healthy dose of Stu, Thorbs, etc.

 

[jetkarma*]

Unfortunately, the Jets traded their 2016 3rd round pick to the Hurricanes as part of the Tlusty deal, so they can't sign anyone to an offer sheet with an AAV in the following ranges:

$1,205,377 to $1,826,328 (3rd round pick)
$3,652,659 to $5,478,986 (1st and 3rd round picks)
$5,478,986 to $7,305,316 (1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks)
$7,305,316 to $9,131,645 (2x1st, 1x2nd and 1x3rd round picks)

The only offers they could make are:

< $1,205,377 (no compensation)
$1,826,328 to $3,652,659 (2nd round pick)
> $9,131,645 (4 x 1st round picks).

Pretty sure Boedker doesn't sign a $3.64M offer sheet - and if he did the Coyotes would easily match.

That would be easy to get back if they wanted to imo . There are still some very good RFA's available , but I don't think their teams are hard against the cap .

Nelson , Hoffman , Huberdeau among others are still left I believe .

 

[Hunter368]

Being swept by the Ducks, where do the Jets need improvement or upgrade? For me, it's top 9 scoring, a contributing 4th line, top 4 LH dman and goaltending upgrade.

Ehlers, Petan or Armia may help in top 9.

Don't see any upgrade on d. Lots of bodies, but few solid options, Imo. Chiarot, Stu, Postma, Harrison, Clitsome and Pardy are borderline NHL players. Chiarot may be the best of that bunch, which is depressing, actually. Morrissey may help, but we need better options here, Imo.

And unless Pavs is injured and Hellebuyck is called up, I think our goaltending takes a step back next year.

Agreed.

It will be interesting to see what Chevy does just before the TD assuming we're still a bubble team. I think it's fair to say at BEST we're still a bubble team. Does he ride it out with the rookies or add a couple black aces (like he did this year) which would push the rookies back down. Does pushing them back down hurt them? Help their development? Or does he want to ride it out with the rookies even if that means failure this year (missing playoffs)? Does running with the rookies help them if we fail to reach the playoffs?

We're improving but far from a contender still. LHD is bad, goaltending bad/major concern for at least another 1-2 years, depth still an issue on the 4th line, no big star centre, etc. But we're slowing improving year to year.......

 

[Hunter368]

Wow, alot of doom and gloom here...unwarranted....Ehlers, Petan, Copp and Armia criminally underrated.

They are going to make a big contribution this year. No need for hand wringing despair.

Chevy is going to give his youth a shot, if he needs a vet or two, he'll add one.

He's earned the benefit of the doubt.

I don't see any doom and gloom.....just a few of us predicting a minor regression. I don't call that doom and gloom IMO. Can't see anyway we're going to improve over last year....thus minor regression. Life goes on, hardly doom and gloom.

 

[Whileee]

I don't see any doom and gloom.....just a few of us predicting a minor regression. I don't call that doom and gloom IMO. Can't see anyway we're going to improve over last year....thus minor regression. Life goes on, hardly doom and gloom.

I think the Jets could regress in the standings and progress in organizational development.

 

[Jets 31]

I don't see any doom and gloom.....just a few of us predicting a minor regression. I don't call that doom and gloom IMO. Can't see anyway we're going to improve over last year....thus minor regression. Life goes on, hardly doom and gloom.

Nobody and i mean nobody thought Calgary would make the playoffs last season with all their young players , with the potential of our young guys i think we can do it too . One thing i think we do have is a very under rated and very good coach , this helps alot .

 

[drumzan]

Regression or improvement this year is 100% dependent on goaltending IMO. Sink or swim with Hutch and Pavs (maybe Helle).

 

[ps241]

I don't see any doom and gloom.....just a few of us predicting a minor regression. I don't call that doom and gloom IMO. Can't see anyway we're going to improve over last year....thus minor regression. Life goes on, hardly doom and gloom.

I see lots of ways we can duplicate last years success or improve, will it happen, who the hell knows?

 

[YWGinYYZ]

I see lots of ways we can duplicate last years success or improve, will it happen, who the hell knows?

Yep. There are many things that could go sideways to lead to a regression (goaltenders post numbers worse than last year, Burmi doesn't really fill in for Frolik, etc), but there are many reasons that lend hope to a better year, as well.

• Goalies stand-pat on their numbers, or improve over last year
• Rookies step up, like Lowry did (Ehlers, Copp, Armia, Morrissey, etc)
• Burmi meshes well with players on the 3rd and 2nd lines
• FA is not over - pick up one or more of Stempniak, Winnik, Bergenheim, etc

Just as likely as a regression. Given that this is the FA thread, I hope we see one or more of the listed players signed/re-signed.

 

[Romang67]

Yep. There are many things that could go sideways to lead to a regression (goaltenders post numbers worse than last year, Burmi doesn't really fill in for Frolik, etc), but there are many reasons that lend hope to a better year, as well.

• Goalies stand-pat on their numbers, or improve over last year
• Rookies step up, like Lowry did (Ehlers, Copp, Armia, Morrissey, etc)
• Burmi meshes well with players on the 3rd and 2nd lines
• FA is not over - pick up one or more of Stempniak, Winnik, Bergenheim, etc

Just as likely as a regression. Given that this is the FA thread, I hope we see one or more of the listed players signed/re-signed.

Winnik signed with the Leafs.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Winnik signed with the Leafs.

I never liked him anyway.

 

[Hunter368]

I think the Jets could regress in the standings and progress in organizational development.

Agreed.....I alluded to that above in my post. Curious for me how the general masses will view/perceive that if they do atoll.

Nobody and i mean nobody thought Calgary would make the playoffs last season with all their young players , with the potential of our young guys i think we can do it too . One thing i think we do have is a very under rated and very good coach , this helps alot .

I wouldn't count or hold my breath on duplicating what the Flames did last year.....that was a freak stroke of luck. Kinda like the Avs a couple years ago.

 

[Hunter368]

Yep. There are many things that could go sideways to lead to a regression (goaltenders post numbers worse than last year, Burmi doesn't really fill in for Frolik, etc), but there are many reasons that lend hope to a better year, as well.

• Goalies stand-pat on their numbers, or improve over last year
• Rookies step up, like Lowry did (Ehlers, Copp, Armia, Morrissey, etc)
• Burmi meshes well with players on the 3rd and 2nd lines
• FA is not over - pick up one or more of Stemp, Winnik, Bergenheim, etc

Just as likely as a regression. Given that this is the FA thread, I hope we see one or more of the listed players signed/re-signed.

YWG, are you saying all the above are just as Likely to happen as regression?

 

[YWGinYYZ]

YWG, are you saying all the above are just as Likely to happen as regression?

Yep! For me, the d-corp is better than the start of last season, and the forwards are similar (and harder to predict, given the rooks that might be in the line-up, and Burmi's ability to replace Frolik).

It's the voodoo of goaltending that'll be the differentiator, methinks. If we get similar or better goaltending, we make the PO's again. If not, it'll be a struggle.

Now sign one of Stempniak, Winnik, or Bergy, Chevy. kthnxbai.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

I desperately want to believe this but I have a gut feeling we are in store for a healthy dose of Stu, Thorbs, etc.

I fully trust the org than when the youth is ready, they'll be there. I see much less Thorbs this season, probably the same amount of Stu, which does suck, but we will also get a Hellybuyck teaser and you can't discount improvement from a surprise prospect, Kosmachuk, Lipon, de Leo.

I see the Ehlers, Copp, Petan, Armia group adding, in totality, between 50 to 60 goals. IMO, that's a big deal.

I think the wait for a really different looking team is now a short one.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I think the Jets could regress in the standings and progress in organizational development.

I kind of expect St Louis and Chicago to be worse myself

 

[surixon]

Something nobody has talked about yet but could play make a substantial positive difference is discipline. If we can move from 2nd worse in the league to even league average it will result in almost 300 less penalty minutes. Given that I believe we will still have a top 5-10 possession team cutting down on penalties and playing more time 5 on 5 should result in more wins and the team taking a step forward.

 

[Hunter368]

Yep! For me, the d-corp is better than the start of last season, and the forwards are similar (and harder to predict, given the rooks that might be in the line-up, and Burmi's ability to replace Frolik).

It's the voodoo of goaltending that'll be the differentiator, methinks. If we get similar or better goaltending, we make the PO's again. If not, it'll be a struggle.

Now sign one of Stempniak, Winnik, or Bergy, Chevy. kthnxbai.

Sorry I don't share the same level of.....blind faith in our goaltending at the very least. Pavs is a proven POS. Expecting him to duplicate his career best (or better) is a pipe dream.....highly unlikely to happen.

Multi rookies bust out this year and perform well....to the same level as Lowry did? Not likely. Reasoning is Lowry is very different player, he was very sound defensively at the same time. So while Ehlers, Petan, Josh might have decent rookie offensive numbers their defensive games will retract from their overall contribution (unlike Lowrys last year). Copp....don't really care about him....4th liner likely for life....just a cheaper version of Slater.

Could Chevy pry that vault of a wallet out of his back pocket and spend a few bucks on one more vet FA that might play in our top 9? Maybe, but not holding my breath.

Hell Thor and Peluso might actually score 35 goals each.....while we're talking about possibilities. I prefer to talk about things that are likely going to happen vs highly unlikely events.

I see us going with more youth than ever before, regressing in the standings, missing the playoffs but furthering our youth development. The interesting things to me if this happens or is the plan (youth movement) is the following:

Buffs contract? Trade or sign long term?

How will the masses receive a regression?

How will management respond to this fan response?

How might our vet core view youth movement (regression)? Remember Ladds comments last year?

Etc

 

[BrianFromAIH]

I kind of expect St Louis and Chicago to be worse myself

Nashville as well will probably be worse.

 

[Hunter368]

Something nobody has talked about yet but could play make a substantial positive difference is discipline. If we can move from 2nd worse in the league to even league average it will result in almost 300 less penalty minutes. Given that I believe we will still have a top 5-10 possession team cutting down on penalties and playing more time 5 on 5 should result in more wins and the team taking a step forward.

Good freaking point. Stop taking so many bad pens guys! Gee that might help our results. That's an annoying one all year.

 

[Romang67]

Sorry I don't share the same level of.....blind faith in our goaltending at the very least. Pavs is a proven POS. Expecting him to duplicate his career best (or better) is a pipe dream.....highly unlikely to happen.

Multi rookies bust out this year and perform well....to the same level as Lowry did? Not likely. Reasoning is Lowry is very different player, he was very sound defensively at the same time. So while Ehlers, Petan, Josh might have decent rookie offensive numbers their defensive games will retract from their overall contribution (unlike Lowrys last year). Copp....don't really care about him....4th liner likely for life....just a cheaper version of Slater.

Could Chevy pry that vault of a wallet out of his back pocket and spend a few bucks on one more vet FA that might play in our top 9? Maybe, but not holding my breath.

Hell Thor and Peluso might actually score 35 goals each.....while we're talking about possibilities. I prefer to talk about things that are likely going to happen vs statically unlikely events.

I see us going with more youth than ever before, regressing in the standings, missing the playoffs but furthering our youth development. The interesting things to me if this happens or is the plan (youth movement) is the following:

Buffs contract? Trade or sign long term?

How will the masses receive a regression?

How will management respond to this fan response?

How might our vet core view youth movement (regression)? Remember Ladds comments last year?

Etc

You consider it unlikely that Ehlers outperforms Buff on forward, Copp outperforms one of the worst fourth liners in the league last season, Armia outperforms Peluso, etc?

Lowry last season was mostly a defensive player. He didn't have much of an offensive game to speak of. His overall contribution to the team was essentially his defensive game. Why do you consider it unlikely that Petan/Ehlers/Morrissey perform well enough offensively to make up for their worse defense?

 

[Gm0ney]

That would be easy to get back if they wanted to imo . There are still some very good RFA's available , but I don't think their teams are hard against the cap .

Nelson , Hoffman , Huberdeau among others are still left I believe .

Chevy should totally reacquire that 3rd rounder just to make things interesting...

The Blackhawks and the Lightning are the only two teams within $1,000,000 of the cap. Their RFAs are: Kruger, Nordstrom, Svedberg and Rasmussen (CHI) and Namestnikov, Ashton, Paradis and Witkowski (TBL).

Namestnikov seems like he'd be a target for someone at least.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Sorry I don't share the same level of.....blind faith in our goaltending at the very least. Pavs is a proven POS. Expecting him to duplicate his career best (or better) is a pipe dream.....highly unlikely to happen.

Where the heck did I say I had ANY faith in our goaltending? Strawman. I stated if we DID get the same goaltending we got last year, we're likely in. If not, then it'll be a struggle. No more, no less. Don't put words into my mouth, and by all means, go read a few of my posts in the Pav thread to see what I think of him.

Multi rookies bust out this year and perform well....to the same level as Lowry did? Not likely. Reasoning is Lowry is very different player, he was very sound defensively at the same time. So while Ehlers, Petan, Josh might have decent rookie offensive numbers their defensive games will retract from their overall contribution (unlike Lowrys last year). Copp....don't really care about him....4th liner likely for life....just a cheaper version of Slater.

Disagree, but I guess we'll see. Scheifele and Lowry made nice progression last year - I think we have room to move two more rookies into the line-up, and with the dynamic talent of Ehlers, they could be positive contributors to the Jets.

Ladd - Little - X
Perreault - Scheifele - X
X - Lowry - Burmi

All three of those centre / winger pairs are very responsible defensively - that gives the Jets room to slot in one of Stafford, Wheeler, and probably Ehlers to provide offense, and to be carried by the other two defensively. I think we also see Copp in for Slater on the 4th line. Two rooks - that's not a whole bunch, and it's no more than we had last year.

Could Chevy pry that vault of a wallet out of his back pocket and spend a few bucks on one more vet FA that might play in our top 9? Maybe, but not holding my breath.

Given that the FA season is a couple months long, it's probably best not to hold your breath. I think we see another vet signed, myself.

Hell Thor and Peluso might actually score 35 goals each.....while we're talking about possibilities. I prefer to talk about things that are likely going to happen vs statically unlikely events.

Ridiculous statement is ridiculous. If this is what you think of my analysis of the situation, then I can understand why you think I'm nuts. Your take on likely vs. unlikely is as valid or as invalid as mine as far as I'm concerned.

BTW: I predicted around this time last year (after the Perreault signing) that the Jets would finish in 8th, and in the PO's. Your prediction?

I see us going with more youth than ever before, regressing in the standings, missing the playoffs but furthering our youth development.

I will admit that's possible - I don't speak in absolutes. I do prefer to be positive until the sky actually falls on my head though - just my persona.

The interesting things to me if this happens or is the plan (youth movement) is the following:

Buffs contract? Trade or sign long term?

I think we see a signing. 7.5x4 or 5 is my guess.

How will the masses receive a regression?

Are you kidding? Terribly. The pitchforks will be out.

How will management respond to this fan response?

With the same calmness and conviction to their path that they have in the past, which will only serve to further infuriate some. I don't necessarily agree with all their moves, but you have to admit they're pretty steadfast in their resolve.

How might our vet core view youth movement (regression)? Remember Ladds comments last year?

I think we'll see him signed very soon as well, which will put that to bed. In any event, I WANT all the vets to be talking about the SC, and not prospect development - that's their job.

 

[surixon]

Sorry I don't share the same level of.....blind faith in our goaltending at the very least. Pavs is a proven POS. Expecting him to duplicate his career best (or better) is a pipe dream.....highly unlikely to happen.

Multi rookies bust out this year and perform well....to the same level as Lowry did? Not likely. Reasoning is Lowry is very different player, he was very sound defensively at the same time. So while Ehlers, Petan, Josh might have decent rookie offensive numbers their defensive games will retract from their overall contribution (unlike Lowrys last year). Copp....don't really care about him....4th liner likely for life....just a cheaper version of Slater.

Could Chevy pry that vault of a wallet out of his back pocket and spend a few bucks on one more vet FA that might play in our top 9? Maybe, but not holding my breath.

Hell Thor and Peluso might actually score 35 goals each.....while we're talking about possibilities. I prefer to talk about things that are likely going to happen vs statically unlikely events.

I see us going with more youth than ever before, regressing in the standings, missing the playoffs but furthering our youth development. The interesting things to me if this happens or is the plan (youth movement) is the following:

Buffs contract? Trade or sign long term?

How will the masses receive a regression?

How will management respond to this fan response?

How might our vet core view youth movement (regression)? Remember Ladds comments last year?

Etc

Im really not sure I follow you. You seem to think that it's a foregone conclusion we regress next year because a couple of rookies will play secondary minutes on the team.

Every team plays rookies and many of those teams don't regress. Why can't Ehlers have a Forsberg type year, he clearly is talented enough to pull it off.

You don't account for internal growth of out young players already on the roster. Both Trouba and Scheifele took big steps last year and I expect that to continue.

The team was horribly undisciplined last year, they can't possible be as bad next year. Becoming league average with regards to penalties substantially improves the team.

Better luck with injuries does as well.

There are plenty of factors that can lead this team to having a better year.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

The reasonable projections for optimism outnumber the reasonable projections for pessimism.