Player Discussion Jesperi Kotkaniemi Part IV

[Captain Mountain]

that's a bit better than I thought. Good things seem to happen when he's on the ice but I think there's still more to his game which hasn't quite surfaced yet. Really shows how good a player he is.

He's a really complete player. I don't know if the scoring or offense is ever going to be amazing, but he already plays such a complete game that I'm not sure it matters.

 

[FerrisRox]

I love Lekhonen, but he's not producing offensively, so.

He has 9 points in 14 games while playing an excellent two way game. What's wrong with his production?

 

[GHJimmy]

He has been wonderful, a seems of natural centre, may be some slumps but so did Kopitar have had those yet still an elite player.

He's been good so far

 

[OldCraig71]

Come on Bobby, we are rooting for you!!

 

[Miller Time]

Would he not hit that same proverbial wall if he didn't play in the NHL this year and came over next year? Same thing with hitting a slump.

absolutely possible... the difference would be that he is a year older, which carries with it significant opportunity for physical, emotional and psychological maturation. From a risk management pov, undoubtedly safer imo and the upside is marginal considering that the alternative still involves playing in a men's league.

15yr veterans hit slumps, why would keeping him away from the NHL make him less likely to hit a slump?

i would have thought the difference between a 15yr veteran and an 18 year old rookie is evident?

slumps of course can and do occur for all players at all ages, that's not really the question or concern. As a franchise, if Plekanec goes into a long slump and it affects his confidence... so what.

18 year old rookie on the other hand... the mental game is such a huge (and largely underappreciated) aspect of progression and development. Again here, just a question of risk management. 18 year old will be more prone to, and affected by, a significant slump than a grizzled vet, and the "worst-case" affect of early career struggles is that it gets in his head and messes up his progression.

It's not a given or a defacto result of him staying here, just a risk factor that needs to be considered.

I'm not being sarcastic btw, truly curious to get your point of view on this as it's something i've often seen repeated and i'm not quite sure I get the logic behind it.

the logic simply boils down to the organizations goals.
If winning a cup is the goal, we need to develop or acquire top-end talent. JKO is the most talented asset we've added since Galch (perhaps arguably Sergachev), and is a pretty crucial piece to this club building up a contending roster.

From that lens, imo Finland is certainly the safer place for JKO to be developing. He's shown thus far that he is more than capable of competing at the NHL level, but the only given is that the season will get more challenging (physically and emotionally) as it progresses, and, given our hot start, we're likely going to be in playoff contention well into 2019... which means the coaching staff will be hard pressed to prioritize development over their assessment of what the team needs to win right now.

Risk/Reward, JKO in Finland is the far safer bet... which isn't to say that he can't/won't succeed staying in the NHL.

Maybe i'm forgetting Galchenyuk's rookie year, but i'm seeing more involvement in all 3 zones with Kotkaniemi than I ever did with Galchenyuk.

I saw maybe more natural finishing ability with Galchenyuk, but otherwise, I've found Kotkaniemi better prepared.

Perhaps that's just recency bias at play though.

i can't really comment strongly on that given how long ago it was...

but a few things not to ignore:
- Galch had played 35 games in the previous 2 seasons due to his major knee injury
- Galch didn't get a pre-season in his rookie year given the lockout
- Galch had MT as his first pro coach (with no pre-season)... say what you will about Julien, but imo it is clear that he is a far better teacher/coach, so overall the team plays a far more organized and structured game than under MT.

those factors certainly would have affected Galch's "preparedness" in his first pro season... and while +/- is a flawed stat, it is worth noting that Galch led his team in +/- in his rookie season.

How would Galch have progressed playing for an actual coach? What was/is his ceiling as an end-to-end contributor? Hard to say, but i would agree that early indications suggest JKO is on his way to being a more complete player.

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

absolutely possible... the difference would be that he is a year older, which carries with it significant opportunity for physical, emotional and psychological maturation. From a risk management pov, undoubtedly safer imo and the upside is marginal considering that the alternative still involves playing in a men's league.



i would have thought the difference between a 15yr veteran and an 18 year old rookie is evident?

slumps of course can and do occur for all players at all ages, that's not really the question or concern. As a franchise, if Plekanec goes into a long slump and it affects his confidence... so what.

18 year old rookie on the other hand... the mental game is such a huge (and largely underappreciated) aspect of progression and development. Again here, just a question of risk management. 18 year old will be more prone to, and affected by, a significant slump than a grizzled vet, and the "worst-case" affect of early career struggles is that it gets in his head and messes up his progression.

It's not a given or a defacto result of him staying here, just a risk factor that needs to be considered.



the logic simply boils down to the organizations goals.
If winning a cup is the goal, we need to develop or acquire top-end talent. JKO is the most talented asset we've added since Galch (perhaps arguably Sergachev), and is a pretty crucial piece to this club building up a contending roster.

From that lens, imo Finland is certainly the safer place for JKO to be developing. He's shown thus far that he is more than capable of competing at the NHL level, but the only given is that the season will get more challenging (physically and emotionally) as it progresses, and, given our hot start, we're likely going to be in playoff contention well into 2019... which means the coaching staff will be hard pressed to prioritize development over their assessment of what the team needs to win right now.

Risk/Reward, JKO in Finland is the far safer bet... which isn't to say that he can't/won't succeed staying in the NHL.




i can't really comment strongly on that given how long ago it was...

but a few things not to ignore:
- Galch had played 35 games in the previous 2 seasons due to his major knee injury
- Galch didn't get a pre-season in his rookie year given the lockout
- Galch had MT as his first pro coach (with no pre-season)... say what you will about Julien, but imo it is clear that he is a far better teacher/coach, so overall the team plays a far more organized and structured game than under MT.

those factors certainly would have affected Galch's "preparedness" in his first pro season... and while +/- is a flawed stat, it is worth noting that Galch led his team in +/- in his rookie season.

How would Galch have progressed playing for an actual coach? What was/is his ceiling as an end-to-end contributor? Hard to say, but i would agree that early indications suggest JKO is on his way to being a more complete player.

Let's not forget that Galchenyuk was 9 months older than Kotkaniemi when they respectively played there first NHL games. Not to mention Galchenyuk also got in over 30 games with Sarnia before the lockout ended. Add nine months of physical maturation along with one and a half seasons playing in North American rinks including 33 recent games. Then factor in all the years he spent living a Nort American lifestyle whereas Kotkaniemi is adjusting to all of this for the first time.All of this adds up favorably to arguing that Kotkianiemi looks like a superior prospect to Galchenyuk as anNHL rookie.

 

[Miller Time]

Let's not forget that Galchenyuk was 9 months older than Kotkaniemi when they respectively played there first NHL games. Not to mention Galchenyuk also got in over 30 games with Sarnia before the lockout ended. Add nine months of physical maturation along with one and a half seasons playing in North American rinks including 33 recent games. Then factor in all the years he spent living a Nort American lifestyle whereas Kotkaniemi is adjusting to all of this for the first time.All of this adds up favorably to arguing that Kotkianiemi looks like a superior prospect to Galchenyuk as anNHL rookie.

yeah, i don't disagree... though I'd be hard pressed to view the difference between the two as significant (galch losing a full year the season prior to his first pro game was a pretty serious handicap that he overcame in pretty resounding fashion imo)

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

You seriously cant see the "elite puck skills? like at all?

Is he gonna be deking guys out consistently? Doubtful.

 

[SOLR]

He absolutely does have elite stickhandling.

So he compares to Ovechkin, McDavid and Crosby, because that's what elite means.

The dumb shit people write.

I'm very high on Jesperi (I have a favourable bias) and not even I think is sticking handling is elite. It's not even close to that. Elite stick handlers don't fumble like he did in the shootout (did you ever see McDavid do this?)

You can be an elite player without elite stick handling. Mats Sundin is a good example, very good stick handling (vs. his peers), still elite as a player.

The one aspect of the game where Jesperi compares to McDavid-Crosby is the playmaking.

 

[the paisanos guy]

So he compares to Ovechkin, McDavid and Crosby, because that's what elite means.

The dumb **** people write.

I'm very high on Jesperi (I have a favourable bias) and not even I think is sticking handling is elite. It's not even close to that. Elite stick handlers don't fumble like he did in the shootout (did you ever see McDavid do this?)

You can be an elite player without elite stick handling. Mats Sundin is a good example, very good stick handling (vs. his peers), still elite as a player.

The one aspect of the game where Jesperi compares to McDavid-Crosby is the playmaking.

I think you're underselling his stickhandling, especially don't use that shootout attempt as evidence as that ice was awful and no player was able to stickhandle that puck very well in that mess (hence why shootout went on for so long without a goal). Earlier in the game he dangled through 3 different skaters in very tight space coming out of the corner and in front of the net. Wish I could find a gif, it showcased his mitts pretty well.

 

[DAChampion]

The one aspect of the game where Jesperi compares to McDavid-Crosby is the playmaking.

Seriously? Can you elaborate?

 

[Mrb1p]

So he compares to Ovechkin, McDavid and Crosby, because that's what elite means.

The dumb **** people write.

I'm very high on Jesperi (I have a favourable bias) and not even I think is sticking handling is elite. It's not even close to that. Elite stick handlers don't fumble like he did in the shootout (did you ever see McDavid do this?)

You can be an elite player without elite stick handling. Mats Sundin is a good example, very good stick handling (vs. his peers), still elite as a player.

The one aspect of the game where Jesperi compares to McDavid-Crosby is the playmaking.

McDavid is elite but not all elite players are like McDavid.

Also plz refrain from insults.

 

[Esko6]

By the way about going back to Finland: his dad was fired today.

 

[SOLR]

McDavid is elite but not all elite players are like McDavid.

Also plz refrain from insults.

No, actually, there are 20 guys that are as good as McDavid for stick handly (Crosby, Ovechkin etc). that's elite. Jesperi is not one of them. I'll repeat, that doesn't make him bad. All I'm saying is: at this point he is not with the top group, it's not like being "very good" is bad.

Seriously? Can you elaborate?

He sees the game developing before it happens, and it he makes moves that will connect 3 seconds in the future (the back-end spinorama pass for example). He's slower than McDavid, so he won't benefit from that skill as much as McDavid does, but I think we'll see him with a lot more assist than goal when he's in his prime. I could see him play the board-point on the PP, ala Marner.

I think you're underselling his stickhandling, especially don't use that shootout attempt as evidence as that ice was awful and no player was able to stickhandle that puck very well in that mess (hence why shootout went on for so long without a goal). Earlier in the game he dangled through 3 different skaters in very tight space coming out of the corner and in front of the net. Wish I could find a gif, it showcased his mitts pretty well.

I'm not using his fumble as evidence of anything beside, he's not in the top group (the top group has extremely high end reliability). How is that underselling it? He's very good, but he's not in the top group.

Dangling =/ stickhandling. You can dangle past opponents without any stick handling abilities by passing the puck between their legs. Kokta is also a very good dangler, but he is not in the top group for stickhandling.

Joe Sakic vs. Peter Forsberg

Very good stick handler vs. Elite Stick handler : In a shootout, Sakic would shoot, Forsberg would...well we know...hands of gold.

Very good stick handler = in the top 25% of NHL players.
Elite Stick handler = in the top 5% of NHL players.

 

[Mrb1p]

I'm not using his fumble as evidence of anything beside, he's not in the top group (the top group has extremely high end reliability). How is that underselling it? He's very good, but he's not in the top group.

Dangling =/ stickhandling. You can dangle past opponents without any stick handling abilities by passing the puck between their legs. Kokta is also a very good dangler, but he is not in the top group for stickhandling.

Joe Sakic vs. Peter Forsberg

Very good stick handler vs. Elite Stick handler : In a shootout, Saki would shoot, Forsberg would...well we know...hands of gold.

Very good stick handler = in the top 25% of NHL players.
Elite Stick handler = in the top 5% of NHL players.

All you're doing is arguing semantics, its useless.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Is he gonna be deking guys out consistently? Doubtful.

His puck skills are elite level IMO. The issue is how he can create time and space with his skating ability.

 

[SOLR]

All you're doing is arguing semantics, its useless.

Semantics matter, because words describe or even make reality what it is. Sorry if you find that "useless", it's just a crucial part of the foundation of our western civilization to describe things accurately.

Not done?

 

[Habs Halifax]

By the way about going back to Finland: his dad was fired today.

Wow... first I heard of this. At this stage, I think sending him to Finland is a road we past by a while ago now.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

A lot of players didn't have 18 year old seasons. Still pretty good hopefully he doesn't bust like Chucky...ayyyy

Chucky has 5 points in 6 games, +3

And how can he be a bust if most consider him top 3 of his draft?

It's just the draft year that was weak.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Chucky has 5 points in 6 games, +3

And how can he be a bust if most consider him top 3 of his draft?

It's just the draft year that was weak.

Just playin

 

[Kaako Kappo]

His puck skills are elite level IMO. The issue is how he can create time and space with his skating ability.

I suppose he'll just need to learn to protect the puck with his body and sharper turns. That'll take some years.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Chucky has 5 points in 6 games, +3

And how can he be a bust if most consider him top 3 of his draft?

It's just the draft year that was weak.

I agree. To many Habs fans, he is a bust cause we drafted him as a center and he struggled to live up to our high expectations for him. He also was not given a solid opportunity in a #1C role for a full season sample size. The Coyotes will give him opportunity to play with talented wingers

 

[Habs Halifax]

I suppose he'll just need to learn to protect the puck with his body and sharper turns. That'll take some years.

Agreed. His edge work and getting physically stronger is where he has areas to improve on.

 

[Mrb1p]

Agreed. His edge work and getting physically stronger is where he has areas to improve on.

He's really good at it IMO, already. He angles his body, his skates and his stick perfectly and thats why he retains possession so often even after fumbling with it. Just gotta get stronger.

 

[Habs Halifax]

He's really good at it IMO, already. He angles his body, his skates and his stick perfectly and thats why he retains possession so often even after fumbling with it. Just gotta get stronger.

No doubt he is smart. That is his biggest asset IMO. I would just like to see him have a bit more break open speed so he can create more time and space. And we all agree, strength will come in time.

At the moment he has to be quick in his decision making cause he is limited with creating time and space for himself. Sometimes he shows flashes of brilliance and other times he coughs up the puck