Proposal: Jeff Petry to the Leafs

[firstemperor]

Logan Couture had mono and still got picked 9th...

Gudbranson had mono and still got picked 3rd

 

[TT1]

No Liljegren, no Sandin, only Dermott. Sandin is a fine prospect but not getting Dermott is a deal breaker for me. I'd personally look elsewhere for another LHD prospect that really i like before accepting Sandin and a 1st.

 

[FerrisRox]

What would it cost if Zaitsev was going back the other way? Assuming the Leafs would have to increase the offer for Montreal to take back money.

I think if you wanted to include Zaitsev, the price would go up for Toronto. They would have to include another asset in the form of a good pick or prospect to get Montreal to take him on.

 

[lifelonghockeyfan]

This obsession that the Leafs HAVE get ANY RHD is just foolish. I'm so happy that all those Weber to Leafs have ended, 95% of Weber trades were to the Leafs, and now the Petry to the Leafs have started.

 

[sansabri]

No Liljegren, no Sandin, only Dermott. Sandin is a fine prospect but not getting Dermott is a deal breaker for me. I'd personally look elsewhere for another LHD prospect that really i like before accepting Sandin and a 1st.

I like your spunk.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Too rich for me. Maybe if Petry was younger. That would be a fleecing for the Habs, relative to what a younger and arguably, more new-age player like Vatanen got, and Hamonic- to a lesser extent. In Vatanen's case, I really wanted him in particular after I saw his performance in the Ducks WCF run 2 years back. Ducks were my west team at the time- he had a underwhelming regular season and his game took a step above when it mattered- played above his size too.

Two 1st rounders for Petry, at 30 years old and no discount cap-wise on a team that needs to fill out the roster with efficient contracts at this point is not ideal.

Also, there's some belief that Sandin can shift over to the right side easier, even though he's play exclusively left. It has more to do with play-style than deployment though.

I see Sandin+1st as a pretty comparable return to what Hamonic got in a 1st+2x2nds. The 1st that we're dealing is likely to be valued a little lower than Calgary's was at the time of the trade, though I do think everyone involved thought Calgary was a playoff team at the time (and getting Dobson made this a hell of a trade for NYI), and Sandin valued at a #29 pick is worth right around 2x2nds seeing as the Leafs traded the #30 pick in 2015 for #34 and #61

for that return I think that retention might be reasonable from the Habs perspective too, but I think that Petry would be dealable for similar return with a year left as well as long as his play didn't fall off a cliff, so if Liljegren made him redundant we could recoup the cap space and most of what we gave up to get him

the Vatanen deal is a little harder to compare because it was more of a "hockey trade"

 

[Randy Randerson]

Zaitsev definitely isn't a cap dump. He simply had a bad injury plagued season and Babcock due to lack of options played him in a role that didn't give him a chance to look as good. Zaitsev played almost 3 minutes a game on the PK and almost no time on the PP. 5 on 5 he finished as a +8.

Zaitsev is signed for 4.5 per year on a deal that takes him all the way through his prime years (till 32). 4.5M for a Dman doesn't buy nearly what people think it does. That's Cole, Kulikov, Ericsson, Alzner, De Haan, Russell type money in the free agent market. I'd bet on Zaitsev being more valuable than any of those guys.

agree, $4.5M is probably #4D money by the end of the contract, so the contract average is probably middle of the pack 2nd pairing money and I think he can achieve that

 

[A1LeafNation]

You have to think Leafs are building/developing their d-core around:

Rielly ______
Dermott Zaitsev
Borgman Liljegren
Sandin

So unless a core piece is coming back, I doubt any of these guys are moved..

 

[firstemperor]

I see Sandin+1st as a pretty comparable return to what Hamonic got in a 1st+2x2nds. The 1st that we're dealing is likely to be valued a little lower than Calgary's was at the time of the trade, though I do think everyone involved thought Calgary was a playoff team at the time (and getting Dobson made this a hell of a trade for NYI), and Sandin valued at a #29 pick is worth right around 2x2nds seeing as the Leafs traded the #30 pick in 2015 for #34 and #61

for that return I think that retention might be reasonable from the Habs perspective too, but I think that Petry would be dealable for similar return with a year left as well as long as his play didn't fall off a cliff, so if Liljegren made him redundant we could recoup the cap space and most of what we gave up to get him

the Vatanen deal is a little harder to compare because it was more of a "hockey trade"

Just my opinion, I can buy everything you said but just playing devils advocate, if we're going to use hindsight that Calgary ended up getting fleeced, to some extent, secondary to Dobson dropping/finishing in the lottery. Can we also not use hindsight that the trade- regardless of Calgary being a lottery team- was probably bad regardless based on how much Hamonic has slowly regressed? I know it's early but still. Now consider Petry, as a much older and more expensive comparable, and I'm not exactly overly optimistic.

As for Vatanen- I can see that too but I still see it as a viable comparable. Scandella is probably another practical one- though not a natural right shot.

As per my overall take on such a deal. I think it would be stupid as of now. Buying Petry for 2 1st's, late or not, would be buying extremely high when there is zero reason to based on how young our core is. Hell, we haven't even iced a single game for our biggest acquisition in Toronto pro sports history (in the modern era).

I've said this in the thread earlier- but I am not buying the argument by some Hab fans on here that teams would be lining up for an analogous package (of a 1st+) +/- retention. In fact, I'd argue that won't be the case. I could see one team doing it, but it would have to be a convenient set of circumstances- and certainly I won't see that team offering the equivalent of two 1st round caliber prospects. That's arguably more than ROR on term just got.

Not to mention the potential repercussions- i.e. losing those valuable ELC, high-end prospect pieces that come with a 1st. That's a recipie for disaster when your trying to keep the influx of cheaper, cost-efficient guys to supplement the top end guys. I know we have a embarrassment of riches, but let's keep the train rolling.

Cheers for the healthy discussion either way

 

[Randy Randerson]

Just my opinion, I can buy everything you said but just playing devils advocate, if we're going to use hindsight that Calgary ended up getting fleeced, to some extent, secondary to Dobson dropping/finishing in the lottery. Can we also not use hindsight that the trade- regardless of Calgary being a lottery team- was probably bad regardless based on how much Hamonic has slowly regressed? I know it's early but still. Now consider Petry, as a much older and more expensive comparable, and I'm not exactly overly optimistic.

As for Vatanen- I can see that too but I still see it as a viable comparable. Scandella is probably another practical one- though not a natural right shot.

As per my overall take on such a deal. I think it would be stupid as of now. Buying Petry for 2 1st's, late or not, would be buying extremely high when there is zero reason to based on how young our core is. Hell, we haven't even iced a single game for our biggest acquisition in Toronto pro sports history (in the modern era).

I've said this in the thread earlier- but I am not buying the argument by some Hab fans on here that teams would be lining up for an analogous package (of a 1st+) +/- retention. In fact, I'd argue that won't be the case. I could see one team doing it, but it would have to be a convenient set of circumstances- and certainly I won't see that team offering the equivalent of two 1st round caliber prospects. That's arguably more than ROR on term just got.

Not to mention the potential reprecussions- i.e. losing those valuable ELC, high-end prospect pieces that come with a 1st. That's a recipie for disaster when your trying to keep the influx of cheaper, cost-efficient guys going to supplement the top end guys. I know we have a embarrassment of riches, but let's keep the train rolling regardless.

Cheers for the healthy discussion either way

don't get me wrong, it could definitely backfire. I do think Petry is a better gamble right now than Hamonic was at the time of the trade, he had been a measurable drag on his linemates for years before the trade where Petry has been the opposite since shortly after he got to Montreal. So I think there's two issues there - 1) the return for the trade or its potential to be more than we think at the time of the trade (ie. Sandin or the pick turn into a home run), and 2) the actual quality of the player being returned (vs. his perceived reputation, as in Hamonic has always been thought of as a very good RHD despite the evidence to the contrary)

I'll bite on the possibility of Sandin or the pick being really good, but I think at some point we'll need to bet the averages and deal futures for current contribution, accepting the chance that one of them really hits and we wish we hadn't done it in hindsight

I like Petry as an asset quite a bit more than I liked Hamonic at the time we were said to be making an offer


I'm good with waiting to see what happens, and definitely good with stockpiling futures when it makes sense to do so (we should have dealt Bozak & JVR last year, we should definitely deal Gardiner this year), but I'm also good with plugging a the one obvious hole in the lineup at the cost of a couple of assets that have about a 30% chance to contribute to the lineup too.

If we did get Petry for that, I would deal Gardiner to recoup the same type of value in futures....maybe do the Gardiner trade first and look for a return that Montreal would want in place of Sandin if you have a particular like for him

 

[firstemperor]

don't get me wrong, it could definitely backfire. I do think Petry is a better gamble right now than Hamonic was at the time of the trade, he had been a measurable drag on his linemates for years before the trade where Petry has been the opposite since shortly after he got to Montreal. So I think there's two issues there - 1) the return for the trade or its potential to be more than we think at the time of the trade (ie. Sandin or the pick turn into a home run), and 2) the actual quality of the player being returned (vs. his perceived reputation, as in Hamonic has always been thought of as a very good RHD despite the evidence to the contrary)

I'll bite on the possibility of Sandin or the pick being really good, but I think at some point we'll need to bet the averages and deal futures for current contribution, accepting the chance that one of them really hits and we wish we hadn't done it in hindsight

I like Petry as an asset quite a bit more than I liked Hamonic at the time we were said to be making an offer


I'm good with waiting to see what happens, and definitely good with stockpiling futures when it makes sense to do so (we should have dealt Bozak & JVR last year, we should definitely deal Gardiner this year), but I'm also good with plugging a the one obvious hole in the lineup at the cost of a couple of assets that have about a 30% chance to contribute to the lineup too.

If we did get Petry for that, I would deal Gardiner to recoup the same type of value in futures....maybe do the Gardiner trade first and look for a return that Montreal would want in place of Sandin if you have a particular like for him

Agreed with Hamonic vs Petry and their underlying productivity, but go back a year or two before he was traded from the Isles, and his underlying numbers were solid. I know he had some personal issues with his family at the time, Islanders were a gong show defensively for a while- so I could buy into some of the circumstances around him as a commodity at the time.

My opinion is still pretty firm though that the 2 1st's would be overpayment and not worth the price of admission. My expectations would be a bit higher, or at the very least- I'd like to see how things play out in either case.

As for ranking the three as a thought experiment. I like Vatanen>Petry>Hamonic in that order. With Vatanen, I have zero concerns about him as a PMD, as an added bonus. Really thought the Bruins cheated on the forecheck/any breakout opportunity in our 7 game series- because they knew our right side- Hainsey/Polak, and Zaitsev- to a lesser extent, because he started picking up at the time, were incapable of breaking it out or being a threat at all exiting their end of the ice.

Re: Gardiner- I'm on the fence with moving him. You probably don't move him unless it's a follow-up move, but I'm also open to resigning him if the term and hit are managable. My thoughts on him haven't really changed. He's a polarizing player but still very good 75% of the time, it's really just about sheltering him properly for the other 25%. The problem when your judging a player like Gardiner is for every mistake he does, he does 2-3 things that help win you a game. He's always going to be a high-event player....and you need those guys to win. Either way, I don't consider him firmly as a core player but if the perception is that he sucks and we can sign him cheaper, then you have to explore retaining him IMO.

 

[Cobra Commander]

Reilly-Petry
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Hainsey-Carrick

 

[A1LeafNation]

Reilly-Petry
Gardener-Zaitsev
Hainsey-Carrick

Lol nope.

 

[Cobra Commander]

Lol nope.

I got the LDs and the RDs correct though right? What order and combinations would you have them in?

 

[A1LeafNation]

I got the LDs and the RDs correct though right? What order and combinations would you have them in?

You have to think Leafs are building/developing their d-core around:

Rielly ______
Dermott Zaitsev
Borgman Liljegren
Sandin

So unless a core piece is coming back, I doubt any of these guys are moved.

Hainsey and Gardiner are gone after this year.

One of Carrick Ozhiganov Rosen Marincin Holl could surprise and become a core piece, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

 

[Cobra Commander]

You have to think Leafs are building/developing their d-core around:

Rielly ______
Dermott Zaitsev
Borgman Liljegren
Sandin

So unless a core piece is coming back, I doubt any of these guys are moved.

Hainsey and Gardiner are gone after this year.

One of Carrick Ozhiganov Rosen Marincin Holl could surprise and become a core piece, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Ok so for next season

Reilly-Petry
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Hainsey-Liljegren

After next season you still have a veteran presence in Petry..

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

No Liljegren, no Sandin, only Dermott. Sandin is a fine prospect but not getting Dermott is a deal breaker for me. I'd personally look elsewhere for another LHD prospect that really i like before accepting Sandin and a 1st.

No way leafs would trade Dermott to get Petry. Dermott has already shown he's nhl quality. That would be like us trading Mete for a 30 year old defenseman. Would make no sense.

I would be happy with Petry (25% retained) for 1st + Sandin.
Its much more than what we paid the oilers to get him

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Ok so for next season

Reilly-Petry
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Hainsey-Liljegren

After next season you still have a veteran presence in Petry..

im sure most leafs fan would like petry, minority wouldnt, leafs are probably losing gardiner at the end of the year which then we have two holes, adding petry for the next few years would give time for our d prospect to devleop, liljegren, durzi, sandin, rasanen.

i would for sure trade 1st + for him.

 

[TOGuy14]

No way leafs would trade Dermott to get Petry. Dermott has already shown he's nhl quality. That would be like us trading Mete for a 30 year old defenseman. Would make no sense.

I would be happy with Petry (25% retained) for 1st + Sandin.
Its much more than what we paid the oilers to get him

Petry isn't going to return the value of two 1st round picks.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Ok so for next season

Reilly-Petry
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Hainsey-Liljegren

After next season you still have a veteran presence in Petry..

Where’s Dermott?

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Petry isn't going to return the value of two 1st round picks.

I would say Petry's value is late 1st + 2nd and I'm sure there are many teams outside our division that would be ready to pay that price. So if the leafs want him, they would need to pay more

 

[Randy Randerson]

Agreed with Hamonic vs Petry and their underlying productivity, but go back a year or two before he was traded from the Isles, and his underlying numbers were solid. I know he had some personal issues with his family at the time, Islanders were a gong show defensively for a while- so I could buy into some of the circumstances around him as a commodity at the time.

My opinion is still pretty firm though that the 2 1st's would be overpayment and not worth the price of admission. My expectations would be a bit higher, or at the very least- I'd like to see how things play out in either case.

As for ranking the three as a thought experiment. I like Vatanen>Petry>Hamonic in that order. With Vatanen, I have zero concerns about him as a PMD, as an added bonus. Really thought the Bruins cheated on the forecheck/any breakout opportunity in our 7 game series- because they knew our right side- Hainsey/Polak, and Zaitsev- to a lesser extent, because he started picking up at the time, were incapable of breaking it out or being a threat at all exiting their end of the ice.

Re: Gardiner- I'm on the fence with moving him. You probably don't move him unless it's a follow-up move, but I'm also open to resigning him if the term and hit are managable. My thoughts on him haven't really changed. He's a polarizing player but still very good 75% of the time, it's really just about sheltering him properly for the other 25%. The problem when your judging a player like Gardiner is for every mistake he does, he does 2-3 things that help win you a game. He's always going to be a high-event player....and you need those guys to win. Either way, I don't consider him firmly as a core player but if the perception is that he sucks and we can sign him cheaper, then you have to explore retaining him IMO.

I think your perspective is valid here. I like Petry above Vatanen especially in terms of our needs, but in a vacuum I see them as similar value

agree that the Bruins took advantage of our right side, and of the refs not calling automatic penalties all series long (which is an officiating problem, not the Bruins fault for exploiting their opportunity), and would love to shore it up in the short term if possible. There definitely isn't any pressure to do something right now, and maybe not even this year, but at some point we do need to if someone doesn't emerge internally

agree on Gardiner too, if he just limited his risky play behind the red line he might be a #1dman, not short on ability just makes too many bad decisions in high-risk, low-reward scenarios like breakout passes up the middle that are clean shots from the slot if they get picked but only end up on a winger's stick in the neutral zone if they work. I wish he'd play simpler in our end, unless he has an opportunity to spring someone, and then play creatively in the offensive end

I also think that Borgman looked like a more than capable NHL'er, so it's a bit of a cushioned fall if we think Dermott is good enough to take Gardiner's spot. And Gardiner is worth quite a bit more than the general HF sentiments these days

 

[Cobra Commander]

Where’s Dermott?

He’s a LD, there is no room for him until Hainsey is gone..

 

[A1LeafNation]

He’s a LD, there is no room for him until Hainsey is gone..

More like this:

Rielly Petry
Gardiner Zaitsev
Dermott Hainsey
Borgman Carrick

 

[Randy Randerson]

He’s a LD, there is no room for him until Hainsey is gone..

Hainsey plays the right