Proposal: Jeff Petry to the Leafs

[Liferleafer]

The Leafs are better off keeping and developing the likes of Dermott and Liljegren, rather than trading them for a respectable but ordinary 30 year old player in Petry.

I agree. I have no issue bringing in Petry...he would help. But not at the cost of Dermott or Liljegren....a 1st+2nd? Sure...if that's not enough, then fine.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I don't know that poster's history, but if you look back in this thread there's a bunch of mutual talk around Sandin+2nd or Sandin+1st with retention. The post you quoted is very reasonable

Would have to be a lot of retention for me to do 1st+Sandin... that is two 1st round picks in a row while not moving any cap the other way. Going to hurt down the road when the leafs need some cheap ELCs

 

[Randy Randerson]

Would have to be a lot of retention for me to do 1st+Sandin... that is two 1st round picks in a row while not moving any cap the other way. Going to hurt down the road when the leafs need some cheap ELCs

I think this sort of reinforces the point I was making there, a guy who's been openly criticized for looking at his own team with rose coloured glasses called out another Habs fan for trashing them, when really it just looks like they were being realistic

but keep in mind how low those 1st rounders were/are expected to be as well, it might be something that we look at closer to the TDL when we have more of a confirmation of where that 2019 pick will be. At that point we should also have a feeling about whether Dermott is ready for Gardiner's minutes too, and if so we can recoup what we trade away by trading Gardiner. I think if we can passably patch the hole at RHD while we develop a better option, that really solidifies the contention window being open now and then I set all sights on managing assets so that we can continue to have a pipeline of ELC talent. I hated watching JVR & Bozak walk away for free, and I don't want to see that happen again with Gardiner, and then I think we'll get to a point with the non-core wingers that some will want raises as RFA's and we'll deal those for futures and replace them from within the system:
- Connor Brown first, probably replaced Bracco/Korshkov/Engvall making the lineup
- Hyman next, probably replaced by Johnsson/Kapanen/Leivo moving up the lineup or Grundstrom
- when the Kapanen/Leivo/Johnsson group becomes unaffordable, you hope that the Grundstrom/Korshkov/Bracco/Brooks/Timashov/Engvall group can fill the holes
- and each time someone becomes unaffordable, they're still young enough that they'll bring back a decent return in futures so the pipeline stays perpetually stocked

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I think this sort of reinforces the point I was making there, a guy who's been openly criticized for looking at his own team with rose coloured glasses called out another Habs fan for trashing them, when really it just looks like they were being realistic

but keep in mind how low those 1st rounders were/are expected to be as well, it might be something that we look at closer to the TDL when we have more of a confirmation of where that 2019 pick will be. At that point we should also have a feeling about whether Dermott is ready for Gardiner's minutes too, and if so we can recoup what we trade away by trading Gardiner. I think if we can passably patch the hole at RHD while we develop a better option, that really solidifies the contention window being open now and then I set all sights on managing assets so that we can continue to have a pipeline of ELC talent. I hated watching JVR & Bozak walk away for free, and I don't want to see that happen again with Gardiner, and then I think we'll get to a point with the non-core wingers that some will want raises as RFA's and we'll deal those for futures and replace them from within the system:
- Connor Brown first, probably replaced Bracco/Korshkov/Engvall making the lineup
- Hyman next, probably replaced by Johnsson/Kapanen/Leivo moving up the lineup or Grundstrom
- when the Kapanen/Leivo/Johnsson group becomes unaffordable, you hope that the Grundstrom/Korshkov/Bracco/Brooks/Timashov/Engvall group can fill the holes
- and each time someone becomes unaffordable, they're still young enough that they'll bring back a decent return in futures so the pipeline stays perpetually stocked

I think trading Gardiner makes the team far worse regardless if Dermott is ready so I dont think we will see that. I dont think the leafs will be selling any current roster player at the deadline so I wouldn't expect any recouped assets.

I get they are late 1st rounders likely but still, seems like too much futures for a 30 year old with a 5.5 million dollar cap hit.

Petry wont see a lick of PP time so you can expect his point totals to plummet (19 ES points this year) too.

I honestly think the leafs will resign Gardiner, especially with a GM like Dubas in charge. If Gardiner is willing to take 6 million or under and no NMC/NTC he likely stays a leaf and can be traded or used an expansion bait at a later date. Dermott isn't ready to be a top 5 ES ice time in the entire league player like Gardiner is and likely wont for a few years. Also ignoring that Gardiner is great on the PP too.

I agree that replacing those non core players with cheap ELC will be key, I just thinking trading Sandin + 1st is giving away a lot of those cheap ELC contracts that have a decent shot of making an impact. If Montreal was willing to delay the 1st round pick to the next draft (or the one after perhaps) that would make more sense for the leafs.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I think trading Gardiner makes the team far worse regardless if Dermott is ready so I dont think we will see that. I dont think the leafs will be selling any current roster player at the deadline so I wouldn't expect any recouped assets.

I get they are late 1st rounders likely but still, seems like too much futures for a 30 year old with a 5.5 million dollar cap hit.

Petry wont see a lick of PP time so you can expect his point totals to plummet (19 ES points this year) too.

I honestly think the leafs will resign Gardiner, especially with a GM like Dubas in charge. If Gardiner is willing to take 6 million or under and no NMC/NTC he likely stays a leaf and can be traded or used an expansion bait at a later date. Dermott isn't ready to be a top 5 ES ice time in the entire league player like Gardiner is and likely wont for a few years. Also ignoring that Gardiner is great on the PP too.

I agree that replacing those non core players with cheap ELC will be key, I just thinking trading Sandin + 1st is giving away a lot of those cheap ELC contracts that have a decent shot of making an impact. If Montreal was willing to delay the 1st round pick to the next draft (or the one after perhaps) that would make more sense for the leafs.

I think Borgman looked very passable as a bottom pairing defender and Dermott (assuming he doesn't crumble under tougher competition after dominating weaker competition, which I think would be odd if it happened) is underutilized playing 16 mins a night. So I do think that the team would be worse without Gardiner, but if Dermott reacts predictably to more minutes against tougher competition and ultimately delivers a Gardiner-esque net effect, it's really just a downgrade for 16 mins a night against the weakest competition which I would live with to get the futures that Gardiner is worth. In this trade scenario you'd also have an upgrade on the right side with Petry

I said earlier in the thread that I would do Sandin+1st without retention but I might be changing my tune a bit, I think we'd want him at a Zaitsev type cap hit if we were looking at that kind of trade

19 ES points is actually pretty good, tied for 69th among defensemen last year so at the high end of #3dman territory for production purposes. I'm really more interested because he's a good possession defenseman than for offensive production though

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I think Borgman looked very passable as a bottom pairing defender and Dermott (assuming he doesn't crumble under tougher competition after dominating weaker competition, which I think would be odd if it happened) is underutilized playing 16 mins a night. So I do think that the team would be worse without Gardiner, but if Dermott reacts predictably to more minutes against tougher competition and ultimately delivers a Gardiner-esque net effect, it's really just a downgrade for 16 mins a night against the weakest competition which I would live with to get the futures that Gardiner is worth. In this trade scenario you'd also have an upgrade on the right side with Petry

I said earlier in the thread that I would do Sandin+1st without retention but I might be changing my tune a bit, I think we'd want him at a Zaitsev type cap hit if we were looking at that kind of trade

19 ES points is actually pretty good, tied for 69th among defensemen last year so at the high end of #3dman territory for production purposes. I'm really more interested because he's a good possession defenseman than for offensive production though

Personally I just dont think it is reasonable to expect dermott to cover Gardiner's minutes at a similar net benefit. It wouldn't just be the massive increase in QoC as Dermott was very sheltered it would be the massive increase in ice time as well. I dont think dermott is ready to play with the Matthews line shift in/shift out like Gardiner has been doing to great success. One of the reason I think Matthews has been elite at ES is because Gardiner is always getting him the puck and forcing play in the right direction.

Ya it isn't bad ES production but the point I was trying to make is you wouldn't be adding 40+ point Jeff Petry to the team. He certainly seems like he could be a good fit for rielly I just would hesitate over a 1st+Sandin package. Dubas trading his 1st ever pick as GM also seems unlikely.

Either way I dont think the leafs will make any trades until they know what they have at the TDL.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Personally I just dont think it is reasonable to expect dermott to cover Gardiner's minutes at a similar net benefit. It wouldn't just be the massive increase in QoC as Dermott was very sheltered it would be the massive increase in ice time as well. I dont think dermott is ready to play with the Matthews line shift in/shift out like Gardiner has been doing to great success. One of the reason I think Matthews has been elite at ES is because Gardiner is always getting him the puck and forcing play in the right direction.

Ya it isn't bad ES production but the point I was trying to make is you wouldn't be adding 40+ point Jeff Petry to the team. He certainly seems like he could be a good fit for rielly I just would hesitate over a 1st+Sandin package. Dubas trading his 1st ever pick as GM also seems unlikely.

Either way I dont think the leafs will make any trades until they know what they have at the TDL.

agree on the Dermott front, or at least that we shouldn't assume he could. I think it would be really weird for a player to be as dominant as he was against NHL'ers and not be really good against slightly better NHL'ers. Also think that the gap between the average and replacement level NHL'ers is shrinking as the goons have been sent to pasture and talented players of all sizes are playing on 4th lines now (without doing any data lookup other than remember seeing that the points distribution in the league has become more even between top and bottom than it used to be), so I think it's easy to overestimate the effect of the QoC change. He'll get an increase in the QoT category as well, which might bring down his relative stats but likely helps to maintain the aggregate shot attempt metrics while he's on the ice being really positive. I would definitely try him in bigger minutes against tougher competition, but play him against the 2nd pairing match ups exclusively until he shows that he's got that down. And if it doesn't work, re-sign Gardiner rather than trading him, I'd like this experiment done before we need to make a decision there

I do think at some point we will be trading 1st rounders to win now, that's just the natural cycle of things where contending teams will accept sacrificing future because winning a cup now would justify a few bad years down the line. Personally I think that Jeff Petry for 3 years would positively affect your chances more than even a Karlsson level guy would for a single playoffs because he helps your chances at multiple attempts, so I like that idea. But fair enough, I don't think there's just one way to see this

 

[pmwlker]

@Baksfamous112

Your like 1 of 2 habs fans that I see on here literally defending everything to do with the habs. You really think your team would have finished so low if you guys actually had an elite cup contending team? Those teams figure a way around that stuff..like when matthews missed over 20 games we still were winning many many games.

o the injuries..o the bad save % of carry, o our best players are still young....lol expect pain and lots of it.
Leafs 2 year before: trash
Leafs 2015-2016 30th place super trash
Leafs 2016-2017 squeeked in playoffs and a great series not just a blow out.
Leafs 2017-2018 105 points reg season. Playoffs and a great series after kadri came back vs a team that finished with even more points than us.
leafs 2018-2019: 105 point season under belt, 2 playoffs under belt, JT signed, Top players havent even sniffed their prime yet.

Can you say a good chance at the cup for the next 7-10 years?

--------------------------------------------------------------------

mtl 2 years ago: one mediocore/poor season and one amazing season(even though you guys hit on sergachev..both draft positions weren't that low)
Mtl last year top 3 pick

mtl next year top 3 pick(NO playoffs like wtf id literally bet my ****ty salary on that happening). 1.Tampa/2.Leafs/3.Boston/4.Wash/5.Pits are literally going to be better than you guys for a while so your only chance is 3/8 spots for a while. Then lets look at the only 3 spots you have a chance for. Columbus/newjersey and florida all put up 96-97 points last year. Thats not something you can easily overtake. IMO CLB is a guarantee as well for playoffs they just had a crazy season couple years ago as well so thats 2 spots now. Florida didn't get any older or worse they added hoffman. NJ is on the up and coming for the foreseeable future and i only see there positioning increasing.

mtl year after that top 10 pick hopefully.



Be prepared for lots of pain

I never understood shitting on another team to make you feel better about your own. Seems so immature. Typical HF boards I suppose.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

agree on the Dermott front, or at least that we shouldn't assume he could. I think it would be really weird for a player to be as dominant as he was against NHL'ers and not be really good against slightly better NHL'ers. Also think that the gap between the average and replacement level NHL'ers is shrinking as the goons have been sent to pasture and talented players of all sizes are playing on 4th lines now (without doing any data lookup other than remember seeing that the points distribution in the league has become more even between top and bottom than it used to be), so I think it's easy to overestimate the effect of the QoC change. He'll get an increase in the QoT category as well, which might bring down his relative stats but likely helps to maintain the aggregate shot attempt metrics while he's on the ice being really positive. I would definitely try him in bigger minutes against tougher competition, but play him against the 2nd pairing match ups exclusively until he shows that he's got that down. And if it doesn't work, re-sign Gardiner rather than trading him, I'd like this experiment done before we need to make a decision there

I do think at some point we will be trading 1st rounders to win now, that's just the natural cycle of things where contending teams will accept sacrificing future because winning a cup now would justify a few bad years down the line. Personally I think that Jeff Petry for 3 years would positively affect your chances more than even a Karlsson level guy would for a single playoffs because he helps your chances at multiple attempts, so I like that idea. But fair enough, I don't think there's just one way to see this

Agreed, he should be able to handle top 4 minutes but it isn't guaranteed and I'm not big into taking risks lol.

I feel like the quality of player dermott faced (bottom 6 forwards and largely bottom pairing defenders) is a lot lower than what Gardiner played against (I.e. whoever Matthews faced + whoever Bozak faced) so I would worry a little about how he can play against the superstars of the league. Agreed though that the disparity between top and bottom lines is shrinking drastically. Top 6 vs bottom 6 doesn't even really make sense anymore.

Agreed about a defender like Petry with term being better for the leafs cup window than a rental superstar like EK and I do get the leafs need to trade 1st rounders at some point but I just dont know if Petry is worth 2 1sts. That's a big haul for a guy about to be on the wrong side of 30.

I think the leafs resign Gardiner if one of rielly/dermott shifts to the right side successfully this year. Both are good enough skaters and have high enough hockey IQ to play their offside.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I never understood ****ting on another team to make you feel better about your own. Seems so immature. Typical HF boards I suppose.

You must not like this website then as that is 90% of the content.. lol

 

[Baksfamous112]

Agreed, he should be able to handle top 4 minutes but it isn't guaranteed and I'm not big into taking risks lol.

I feel like the quality of player dermott faced (bottom 6 forwards and largely bottom pairing defenders) is a lot lower than what Gardiner played against (I.e. whoever Matthews faced + whoever Bozak faced) so I would worry a little about how he can play against the superstars of the league. Agreed though that the disparity between top and bottom lines is shrinking drastically. Top 6 vs bottom 6 doesn't even really make sense anymore.

Agreed about a defender like Petry with term being better for the leafs cup window than a rental superstar like EK and I do get the leafs need to trade 1st rounders at some point but I just dont know if Petry is worth 2 1sts. That's a big haul for a guy about to be on the wrong side of 30.

I think the leafs resign Gardiner if one of rielly/dermott shifts to the right side successfully this year. Both are good enough skaters and have high enough hockey IQ to play their offside.

He’s a hot commodity, a need for us too (Habs fans) and is 30, not 35.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

He’s a hot commodity, a need for us too (Habs fans) and is 30, not 35.

I know he is 30 and will be 31 in December. I.e. on the wrong side of 30...

 

[Baksfamous112]

I know he is 30 and will be 31 in December. I.e. on the wrong side of 30...

Being on the wrong side of 30 means 36+.

Jesus...

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Being on the wrong side of 30 means 36+.

Jesus...

I guess? The wrong side of 30 to me means being older than 30. The 'right' side of 30 being younger than 30. This is just semantics on an arbitrary definition though and not worth discussion.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Agreed, he should be able to handle top 4 minutes but it isn't guaranteed and I'm not big into taking risks lol.

I feel like the quality of player dermott faced (bottom 6 forwards and largely bottom pairing defenders) is a lot lower than what Gardiner played against (I.e. whoever Matthews faced + whoever Bozak faced) so I would worry a little about how he can play against the superstars of the league. Agreed though that the disparity between top and bottom lines is shrinking drastically. Top 6 vs bottom 6 doesn't even really make sense anymore.

Agreed about a defender like Petry with term being better for the leafs cup window than a rental superstar like EK and I do get the leafs need to trade 1st rounders at some point but I just dont know if Petry is worth 2 1sts. That's a big haul for a guy about to be on the wrong side of 30.

I think the leafs resign Gardiner if one of rielly/dermott shifts to the right side successfully this year. Both are good enough skaters and have high enough hockey IQ to play their offside.

the Leafs are an extreme version, but if you look at our 2nd line vs. 4th line wingers (assuming Tavares-Marner is the 2nd line), you have Marner who's clearly better than the rest but then I won't be surprised if either of the 4th liners are better than the other 2nd line winger (and if that winger is Hyman rather than Marleau, I think there's a real chance that he's the least talented of the group). So I do see real evidence of that shrinking gap, which I think bodes extremely well for Dermott. But I'll agree that we shouldn't jump the gun

On the Petry front, I'd only pay what it took to get him too, if the market is something less then that's where I'd want to be. So if I'm high on what I'm willing to go to, I wouldn't go there unless I had to

Being on the wrong side of 30 means 36+.

Jesus...

it literally happens, by definition, the moment you turn 30. The sky is green, water is dry, death and taxes are optional...right?

 

[Tavares to Marner]

they want Dermott for Jeff freaking Petry?

come off it lol

 

[sansabri]

I guess? The wrong side of 30 to me means being older than 30. The 'right' side of 30 being younger than 30. This is just semantics on an arbitrary definition though and not worth discussion.

lol

 

[DoobieDubas]

I never understood ****ting on another team to make you feel better about your own. Seems so immature. Typical HF boards I suppose.

Im stating my opinion that instead of being mediocre and keeping things how they are, the habs should rebuild if they want any chance to compete with the top teams in the east. As of right now like I've stated they have 0 chance of passing wash tamp bost leafs pits which is 5/8 leaving 3/8 for potential if everything goes right. in which the odds aren't the greatest.(Thats not me making fun of the habs).

Then i said expect pain..Which is evident for a mediocre team like the habs are ATM if fully healthy (also i know about this because my whole life between sundin to matthews era we were mediocre or bad which is a damn long time) OR a rebuild causes pain to.(this is not making fun of the habs either).