Player Discussion Jean-Gabriel Pageau

[Chelis Chili]

PAGEAU’S FIRST REGULAR-SEASON HAT TRICK DRIVES SENATORS PAST DEVILS

Jean-Gabriel Pageau scored two of the Senators’ three third-period goals to complete his first career regular-season hat trick and help Ottawa rally to its third win in four contests.
* Pageau’s hat trick was the third of his career and first in the regular season, netting each of his first two performances in the Stanley Cup Playoffs – including a four-goal outing in Game 2 of their 2017 Second Round series vs. the Rangers. He joined Daniel Alfredsson as the second player in Senators history to score a hat trick in both a regular season and postseason contest.
* Pageau celebrated his 27th birthday Monday and has collected nine points in his last seven games (8-1—9). The fourth-round pick in the 2011 NHL Draft (96th overall) leads the Senators in goals and points in 2019-20 (11-4—15), while also pacing the NHL with a plus-19 rating.

 

[TheDebater]

PAGEAU’S FIRST REGULAR-SEASON HAT TRICK DRIVES SENATORS PAST DEVILS

Jean-Gabriel Pageau scored two of the Senators’ three third-period goals to complete his first career regular-season hat trick and help Ottawa rally to its third win in four contests.
* Pageau’s hat trick was the third of his career and first in the regular season, netting each of his first two performances in the Stanley Cup Playoffs – including a four-goal outing in Game 2 of their 2017 Second Round series vs. the Rangers. He joined Daniel Alfredsson as the second player in Senators history to score a hat trick in both a regular season and postseason contest.
* Pageau celebrated his 27th birthday Monday and has collected nine points in his last seven games (8-1—9). The fourth-round pick in the 2011 NHL Draft (96th overall) leads the Senators in goals and points in 2019-20 (11-4—15), while also pacing the NHL with a plus-19 rating.

You know in his head he is thinking "nah I've got three of these babies right here".

 

[Clayonator]

He’s worth every bit of what someone like Bonino is making and more. I’m hesitant to put him in Backlund territory though, because I’m unsure of his long term production going forward. He’s cracked 40 points once so far, and that was a few years ago. Then again he’s only 26 years old, and at the moment is on pace to smash his old career highs. At this point, I’d be comfortable giving him 5 x 3, 4.75 x 4, or 4.5 x 5.

 

[GCK]

He’s worth every bit of what someone like Bonino is making and more. I’m hesitant to put him in Backlund territory though, because I’m unsure of his long term production going forward. He’s cracked 40 points once so far, and that was a few years ago. Then again he’s only 26 years old, and at the moment is on pace to smash his old career highs. At this point, I’d be comfortable giving him 5 x 3, 4.75 x 4, or 4.5 x 5.

Good comparable. Bonino got 4 x 4.1M 2 years ago. A little rich for my liking taking into account inflation.

 

[Boud]

Pageau has me wondering how good offensively he could be as a complimentary top 6 winger. Put him on the wing with his speed and shot, make him take faceoffs if needed and he's responsible defensively.

Tkachuk - L. Brown - Pageau
Duclair - White - Batherson
Paul - Namestnikov - C.Brown
Chlapik - Tierney - Davidsson

Or swap White and Pageau

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

5.5 x 3. Bit more money upfront, not a long contract where it hinders FYOUS, Keeps a vet through his prime. Even if his production slows down, he's good enough at everything else where I wouldn't care.

 

[Sweatred]

So ... Ray thinks 23 year old White is a better 3C than 29 year old Pager ? Maybe ? I think Pager outplays White through 30-31...

That would be great but White’s games hasn’t shown much improvement this year vs last when he was playing with a top caliber player. Who knows how serious the injury was. He has picked up a few recent points but he’s been pushed off the puck a lot and failed at running the PP. I think his game is closer to Names than outplaying Pager.

 

[Clayonator]

5.5 x 3. Bit more money upfront, not a long contract where it hinders FYOUS, Keeps a vet through his prime. Even if his production slows down, he's good enough at everything else where I wouldn't care.

Yeah to be honest, I wouldn’t even mind going north of that on nothing longer than a 3 year term. I put 5 as my cap previously, but could stand 6 really. The fear is that he won’t even be the 3rd best centre on the team by then as illustrated by the tweet @Sens of Anarchy shared. You could move him to the wing I suppose, but we have a glut of options there too coming.

 

[stempniaksen]

Banking on Norris being better than Pageau in 2 years is supremely optimistic, imo. "Worst" case scenario you move one of White/Norris to the wing until Pageau's contract runs out or have JGP play on the "4th" line (which shouldn't really be a true 4th line with the glut of kids we have coming) and top PK unit which should still get him to ~14 mins/game.

I'm with @Clayonator on this one. Term is the issue, not cash. This team probably won't be within $5 million of the ceiling in the next 3-4 years if they have as many ELC's on the roster as is projected.

 

[Sen sational]

IMO Pageau is currently playing above his ability. He has an average shot and his shooting percentage is not sustainable. You could also argue that when you become the "man" on a team you attract the other teams attention and get more difficult players to play against.

Having said that, people point to his career high 43 points and usual 30+ point pace over the last 3 years as the reason he will never be more than that. "He is 27 and you don't suddenly improve at 27". This ignores that in junior he was a better than ppg player in his final 2 years, that his 43 point year was his first full year in the NHL and that in the 3 following years he was coached by Boucher and put on a line with "defence first" players with limited offensive upside. I don't think you can disregard the role he was given by Boucher as a limiting factor to his offensive upside.

In his first, non-Boucher coached year, he again started as the shut down player but has since shown that he has an offensive upside. Now playing more minutes and with more offensive minded players he is showing he has more offensive upside. I think Pageau's ceiling is a 50+ point player and with appropriate linemates and ice time I would expect his future floor to be 40+ points.

If you look at his playoff history of scoring and being a clutch player, his last 2 years of junior, his first full year in the NHL I think there is a history of play that would suggest he is much better than a 30 point a year player.

 

[Micklebot]

IMO Pageau is currently playing above his ability. He has an average shot and his shooting percentage is not sustainable. You could also argue that when you become the "man" on a team you attract the other teams attention and get more difficult players to play against.

Having said that, people point to his career high 43 points and usual 30+ point pace over the last 3 years as the reason he will never be more than that. "He is 27 and you don't suddenly improve at 27". This ignores that in junior he was a better than ppg player in his final 2 years, that his 43 point year was his first full year in the NHL and that in the 3 following years he was coached by Boucher and put on a line with "defence first" players with limited offensive upside. I don't think you can disregard the role he was given by Boucher as a limiting factor to his offensive upside.

In his first, non-Boucher coached year, he again started as the shut down player but has since shown that he has an offensive upside. Now playing more minutes and with more offensive minded players he is showing he has more offensive upside. I think Pageau's ceiling is a 50+ point player and with appropriate linemates and ice time I would expect his future floor to be 40+ points.

If you look at his playoff history of scoring and being a clutch player, his last 2 years of junior, his first full year in the NHL I think there is a history of play that would suggest he is much better than a 30 point a year player.

To me, Pageau is a middle six guy that's too valuable in a shutdown role to ever get the opportunity to play in an offensive role. As ou suggested, he doesn't really have any stand out skills, but I think he's above average in just about everything.

I'd also suggest that a career of playing shutdown mins with guys like Smith, Pyatt, Chiasson and the ghost of Bobby Ryan can have a chilling effect on your production. That's not to say Paul and C.Brown are world beaters, just that his role and deployment has never been conducive to pts production save a brief stint with Stone and had some success with Hoffman, but the deployment was always more shutdown in nature.

 

[guyzeur]

Pageau always had the offensive upside, his problem was that he has been our best shutdown and short handed player since the beginning of his NHL career.

 

[Sen sational]

To me, Pageau is a middle six guy that's too valuable in a shutdown role to ever get the opportunity to play in an offensive role. As ou suggested, he doesn't really have any stand out skills, but I think he's above average in just about everything.

I'd also suggest that a career of playing shutdown mins with guys like Smith, Pyatt, Chiasson and the ghost of Bobby Ryan can have a chilling effect on your production. That's not to say Paul and C.Brown are world beaters, just that his role and deployment has never been conducive to pts production save a brief stint with Stone and had some success with Hoffman, but the deployment was always more shutdown in nature.

I agree, he is a natural shut down player. My point was simply that his floor and ceiling for points as a shut down player is higher than it was under Boucher.

 

[GCK]

5.5 x 3. Bit more money upfront, not a long contract where it hinders FYOUS, Keeps a vet through his prime. Even if his production slows down, he's good enough at everything else where I wouldn't care.

The AAV is high but I prefer the term. how about 4.75 x 3. I wouldn't want to break the 5M threshold with depth players as it skews future deals. Maybe 5M on the nose and he is named Captain.

 

[GCK]

So ... Ray thinks 23 year old White is a better 3C than 29 year old Pager ? Maybe ? I think Pager outplays White through 30-31...

That would be great but White’s games hasn’t shown much improvement this year vs last when he was playing with a top caliber player. Who knows how serious the injury was. He has picked up a few recent points but he’s been pushed off the puck a lot and failed at running the PP. I think his game is closer to Names than outplaying Pager.

White already has a similar points season to JGPs career best. They both reached those totals playing with Stone. White projects to be far better than Pageau very soon.

 

[Sweatred]

White already has a similar points season to JGPs career best. They both reached those totals playing with Stone. White projects to be far better than Pageau very soon.

There is more to their value than points. White picked up a bunch of assists playing with MD. We haven't really seen that distribution ability on his own yet. When do you think he will surpass Pager ? I suggested 3+ years (if he does at all). Pager is better than White and White makes more. A fair contract would pay Pager more than White given most feel the White contract is representative of his worth.

 

[GCK]

There is more to their value than points. White picked up a bunch of assists playing with MD. We haven't really seen that distribution ability on his own yet. When do you think he will surpass Pager ? I suggested 3+ years (if he does at all). Pager is better than White and White makes more. A fair contract would pay Pager more than White given most feel the White contract is representative of his worth.

I think he surpasses Pageau later this year.

 

[Sweatred]

I think he surpasses Pageau later this year.

That would be great. Personally I don't see that happening but it would be great for the team.

 

[Micklebot]

A fair contract would pay Pager more than White given most feel the White contract is representative of his worth.

No, White is paid based on an assumption that as a young player, he will continue to progress. Pageau will be paid based on the assumption that he will remain a certain level of play.

There contractual situations are so different it's strange to compare them. I guess if you think that White will top out at Pageau's level or close to it, then a fair deal for Pageau would be something close to what White is getting, but I'm fairly sure that White was expected by the team to develop into a better player than Pageau at the time he was signed.

edit: Worth noting, at least imo White has looked a lot better since returning from injury. I think something may have been nagging him early on this year, but that's just speculation.

 

[TheDebater]

No, White is paid based on an assumption that as a young player, he will continue to progress. Pageau will be paid based on the assumption that he will remain a certain level of play.

There contractual situations are so different it's strange to compare them. I guess if you think that White will top out at Pageau's level or close to it, then a fair deal for Pageau would be something close to what White is getting, but I'm fairly sure that White was expected by the team to develop into a better player than Pageau at the time he was signed.

edit: Worth noting, at least imo White has looked a lot better since returning from injury. I think something may have been nagging him early on this year, but that's just speculation.

They are teammates it is rather common to compare contracts within the team (unless of course the contract is obviously a bad one i.e Ryan and Boedker) which is why is would not be surprised if Pageau's agent used White's contract as a starting point. Does not mean that Dorion has to counter with it, but the White contract is pretty fair and reasonable and if keeping Pageau means paying him a little more than White as a show of appreciation for being a warrior for this team then you give it to him. 4 years at 5.25 million should be fair to both sides here.

 

[GCK]

There is nobody outside the Senators fan base who sees JGPs value at 5M. He is a 4M player on a mid term contract. When I get the usual “Sources?” Replies just check hickey media.

 

[Micklebot]

They are teammates it is rather common to compare contracts within the team (unless of course the contract is obviously a bad one i.e Ryan and Boedker) which is why is would not be surprised if Pageau's agent used White's contract as a starting point. Does not mean that Dorion has to counter with it, but the White contract is pretty fair and reasonable and if keeping Pageau means paying him a little more than White as a show of appreciation for being a warrior for this team then you give it to him. 4 years at 5.25 million should be fair to both sides here.

What's uncommon is comparing RFA to UFA deals. If we were talking about two RFA on the same team, or two UFA on the same team, sure thing. But comparing a 27 year old UFA looking for a new deal to a deal signed coming off an ELC doesn't really make a lot of sense for the reasons that have been gone over ad-nauseum.

 

[bert]

There is nobody outside the Senators fan base who sees JGPs value at 5M. He is a 4M player on a mid term contract. When I get the usual “Sources?” Replies just check hickey media.

Well no, you really cant speak for everyone. Especially when using the Bonino contract from two years ago then looking at inflation. Especially considering the only two times Pageau has ever had opportunities to play in a top 6 he has produced like a top 6 player. He is better than Bonino already in just about every way. I dont want the sens to have to pay him 5 million but its not like its not a possibility.

 

[HSF]

for whatever reason if he doesn't sign here I see him as a potential Bruin