Player Discussion Jean-Gabriel Pageau

[Sweatred]

What is your problem with White ? He projects as a better player than Pageau.

I like White, I just think he is over paid. White makes $4, 4, 4.75, 4.75. 4.75. 5.25. At what point do you think he outplays Pager ? My honest opinion is probably in year 4-6 of the contract. In the meantime Pager will be putting up more WAR/effectiveness than White. So I would expect Pager's contract to reflect that he is better than White for a few years at least.

That contract creates the exact problem we are seeing with Pager. You can't pay Pager (the way he is playing) less than White.

 

[BondraTime]

Not a single ones is equal lol... unless you meant Dzingel instead of Stone

Not even close to equal, and I hate the return on Stone

 

[swiftwin]

All of these proposed deals are equal to or just slightly less than the return we got for Mark Stone. Sorry, but Pageau and Mark Stone are completely different players, we really need to temper our expectations and remember who is negotiating the trades on our end and remember how poor our pro scouting has been.

All of those proposed deal are roughly what we got for Brassard.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Well safe to say he'll get overpaid if he keeps this up. Still hope he's dealt at the deadline.

 

[SensFactor]

I hope the Sens realize what a commodity Pageau is and re-sign him soon. He's earned the captaincy IMO and is exactly what our young guys need in terms of mentor. I've said it before, you can't develop all these kids without capable veterans. Even one year with Mark Stone, helped Tkatchuk develop on and off the ice. I would give him the same contract as White.

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

I'd rather move a Boro and Anderson than Pager.
He doesn't take up a lot of room on the Cap or the roster, so you'd hope he can be a steady leader that will produce 40ish points a year, maybe more at a decent hit.
We do need some tie to past editions, and Pageau can work both sides of the river with charm and aplomb.

 

[Sensmileletsgo]

On the flip side of things, and this is for the sake of discussion, Pageau is ruining our tank and costing us a chance at an elite level prospect in Laferniere and Byfield.

Maybe he should be traded soon so we can go back to being 3 team in the league. It might feel good to re-sign Pageau as a fan, but it might be better off long term if we trade him.

 

[TheDebater]

I think some fans here really need to take a deep breath and limit their freak-out over Pageau and his hot streak. I cannot harp enough about how contract negotiations work, it is not enough to look at one season, judge good or bad, and then give a contract based on that year. Here are some players who signed a contract at the age of 24-26 recently, their points at the time of signing, and what they signed for:


Player/- Points(at signing)/- GP(at signing)/- Contract


1. Ondrej Palat, 218p in 307gp , signed for 5 x $5.3 mill

2. Tomas Tatar, 194 in 345, signed for 4 x 5.3 mill

3. Kyle Palmieri, 146 in 280, signed for 5 x 4.65 mill (age 25)

4. Teuvo Teravainen, 189 in 326, signed for 5 x 5.4 mill (age 24)

5. Tyler Johnson, 211 in 308, signed for 7 x 5.0 mill

6. Tyler Toffoli, 175 in 293, 3 x 4.6 million

7. Jaden Schwartz, 157 in 240, 5 x 5.35 mill (age 25)

8. Jason Zucker, 172 in 330, 5 x 5.5 million

Other players a bit younger with similar contracts:

Alex Galchenyuk, 204 in 336, 3 x 4.9 mill (age 23)

Jonathan Huberdeau, 172 in 272, 6 x 5.9 mill (age 23)

Jake Guentzel, 114 in 158, 5 x 6 million (age 2$)


Pageau's stats:

Age 27, 157 points in 386 games, current cap hit is 3.1 million.

So if we assume that "at the time of signing", Pageau has had a career high season and hits 70 points, that gives him around 207 points in over 400 games played to work with. that's approximately 0.50 ppg average for a 27 year old in his prime. Hope this helps.

 

[Micklebot]

Not even close to equal, and I hate the return on Stone

All of those proposed deal are roughly what we got for Brassard.

To be fair, the return on Brassard was actually really good...

22nd OA (JBD and Tychonyck), Gustavsson, Ian Cole (2020 Clb 3rd round)

vs

Brannstrom, 2020 2nd rd pick, Lindberg (not re-signed)

Brannstrom is obviously the most valuable piece here, but a Clb 3rd and VGK 2nd may end up pretty close in terms of value. Gustavsson still has starter potential, and JBD looks like a pretty darn good piece himself. There's a realistic chance that we benefit more from the Brassard return than the Stone one.


Anyways, if we can get something even approaching the Brassard return for Pageau, I'd do it, but my preference would be to trade Tierney and re-sign Pageau if it can be done at a reasonable price.

 

[BondraTime]

I think some fans here really need to take a deep breath and limit their freak-out over Pageau and his hot streak. I cannot harp enough about how contract negotiations work, it is not enough to look at one season, judge good or bad, and then give a contract based on that year. Here are some players who signed a contract at the age of 24-26 recently, their points at the time of signing, and what they signed for:


Player/- Points(at signing)/- GP(at signing)/- Contract


1. Ondrej Palat, 218p in 307gp , signed for 5 x $5.3 mill

2. Tomas Tatar, 194 in 345, signed for 4 x 5.3 mill

3. Kyle Palmieri, 146 in 280, signed for 5 x 4.65 mill (age 25)

4. Teuvo Teravainen, 189 in 326, signed for 5 x 5.4 mill (age 24)

5. Tyler Johnson, 211 in 308, signed for 7 x 5.0 mill

6. Tyler Toffoli, 175 in 293, 3 x 4.6 million

7. Jaden Schwartz, 157 in 240, 5 x 5.35 mill (age 25)

8. Jason Zucker, 172 in 330, 5 x 5.5 million

Other players a bit younger with similar contracts:

Alex Galchenyuk, 204 in 336, 3 x 4.9 mill (age 23)

Jonathan Huberdeau, 172 in 272, 6 x 5.9 mill (age 23)

Jake Guentzel, 114 in 158, 5 x 6 million (age 2$)


Pageau's stats:

Age 27, 157 points in 386 games, current cap hit is 3.1 million.

So if we assume that "at the time of signing", Pageau has had a career high season and hits 70 points, that gives him around 207 points in over 400 games played to work with. that's approximately 0.50 ppg average for a 27 year old in his prime. Hope this helps.

Every one of those players signed deals as RFA's, Pageau is a UFA

Pageau isn't a guy that is being paid by the points he puts up, he's a matchup C. The only guy that plays center on that list is Johnson, and that's only sporadically.

 

[Cosmix]

I say sign him for 4 years. Don’t need more picks at this point. We’re loaded already. I mean you always want more picks but compared to the value jgp brings if he can maintain this type of play outweighs an extra pick considering the number of picks we already have.
(So yeah, number of picks, one extra pick, already lots of picks, picks picks picks)

We need better picks, not more picks.

 

[Micklebot]

I think some fans here really need to take a deep breath and limit their freak-out over Pageau and his hot streak. I cannot harp enough about how contract negotiations work, it is not enough to look at one season, judge good or bad, and then give a contract based on that year. Here are some players who signed a contract at the age of 24-26 recently, their points at the time of signing, and what they signed for:


Player/- Points(at signing)/- GP(at signing)/- Contract


1. Ondrej Palat, 218p in 307gp , signed for 5 x $5.3 mill

2. Tomas Tatar, 194 in 345, signed for 4 x 5.3 mill

3. Kyle Palmieri, 146 in 280, signed for 5 x 4.65 mill (age 25)

4. Teuvo Teravainen, 189 in 326, signed for 5 x 5.4 mill (age 24)

5. Tyler Johnson, 211 in 308, signed for 7 x 5.0 mill

6. Tyler Toffoli, 175 in 293, 3 x 4.6 million

7. Jaden Schwartz, 157 in 240, 5 x 5.35 mill (age 25)

8. Jason Zucker, 172 in 330, 5 x 5.5 million

Other players a bit younger with similar contracts:

Alex Galchenyuk, 204 in 336, 3 x 4.9 mill (age 23)

Jonathan Huberdeau, 172 in 272, 6 x 5.9 mill (age 23)

Jake Guentzel, 114 in 158, 5 x 6 million (age 2$)


Pageau's stats:

Age 27, 157 points in 386 games, current cap hit is 3.1 million.

So if we assume that "at the time of signing", Pageau has had a career high season and hits 70 points, that gives him around 207 points in over 400 games played to work with. that's approximately 0.50 ppg average for a 27 year old in his prime. Hope this helps.

Going off memory here, but most of those guys signed as RFA, not UFA. I know Marner and Matthew's have skewed the perception of that meaning anything, but at least until recently it meant something. Toffoli signing at 4.6 as an RFA for example is likely very different than what he could ight have gotten on an open market with the same history of production.

 

[stempniaksen]

UFA centers =/= RFA wingers

 

[TheDebater]

Every one of those players signed deals as RFA's, Pageau is a UFA

Pageau isn't a guy that is being paid by the points he puts up, he's a matchup C. The only guy that plays center on that list is Johnson, and that's only sporadically.

Going off memory here, but most of those guys signed as RFA, not UFA. I know Marner and Matthew's have skewed the perception of that meaning anything, but at least until recently it meant something. Toffoli signing at 4.6 as an RFA for example is likely very different than what he could ight have gotten on an open market with the same history of production.

Say that is true, regardless, do you guys not believe the dynamic of the NHL has somewhat changed recently where it appears RFA's are now being treated the way UFA's used to be? The trend historically was that players waited to get paid and then cashed in on their UFA deal, however now there is precedent set where most of these players getting the big bucks before becoming a UFA.

The list I compiled was not to necessarily compare apples to apples but to show that "better" players are getting paid in and around the 4-6 million range. Pageau might be a UFA but the numbers do not lie, and arguing over semantics is not going to change his value.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Every one of those players signed deals as RFA's, Pageau is a UFA

Pageau isn't a guy that is being paid by the points he puts up, he's a matchup C. The only guy that plays center on that list is Johnson, and that's only sporadically.

But did you take a deep breath before you introduced those pertinent facts?

 

[BondraTime]

Say that is true, regardless, do you guys not believe the dynamic of the NHL has somewhat changed recently where it appears RFA's are now being treated the way UFA's used to be? The trend historically was that players waited to get paid and then cashed in on their UFA deal, however now there is precedent set where most of these players getting the big bucks before becoming a UFA.

The list I compiled was not to necessarily compare apples to apples but to show that "better" players are getting paid in and around the 4-6 million range. Pageau might be a UFA but the numbers do not lie, and arguing over semantics is not going to change his value.

The precedent was set with Matthews, which happened after all of those deals were signed.

It's not arguing over semantics, it's arguing over who his counterparts will be. It won't be RFA's and it won't be scoring wingers.

JGP is one of, if not the best PK player in the league, that will factor in. He plays Center. That will factor in. He's one of the best playoff performers. That will factor in. He's one of the best shutdown centers in the league, that will factor in. The season prior to a guys UFA is the largest contributor to his payday, he is likely to put up 20+goals and 40+ points.

He hasn't been getting Powerplay minutes, that looks like it may change, or should. He's done all his damage with Even Strength and Short Handed. He should be getting more than the ~20 seconds a game he currently is.

His camp has so much to point to outside of the regular stats. He will be looking for ~6-7% of the cap I would think.

 

[stempniaksen]

Say that is true, regardless, do you guys not believe the dynamic of the NHL has somewhat changed recently where it appears RFA's are now being treated the way UFA's used to be? The trend historically was that players waited to get paid and then cashed in on their UFA deal, however now there is precedent set where most of these players getting the big bucks before becoming a UFA.

The list I compiled was not to necessarily compare apples to apples but to show that "better" players are getting paid in and around the 4-6 million range. Pageau might be a UFA but the numbers do not lie, and arguing over semantics is not going to change his value.

RFA vs UFA and bringing up Pageau's other attributes (i.e defensive play) isn't "semantics" though, imo. You're entirely right that RFA's have started to close the gap with their UFA counterparts, but that's a very recent development and the contracts you mentioned were signed before that was ever really a "thing".

I mean the list you compiled wasn't even apples to oranges, it was like comparing apples to marbles. Sure they're both round, but that's pretty much where the comparison ends.

 

[GCK]

I think some fans here really need to take a deep breath and limit their freak-out over Pageau and his hot streak. I cannot harp enough about how contract negotiations work, it is not enough to look at one season, judge good or bad, and then give a contract based on that year. Here are some players who signed a contract at the age of 24-26 recently, their points at the time of signing, and what they signed for:


Player/- Points(at signing)/- GP(at signing)/- Contract


1. Ondrej Palat, 218p in 307gp , signed for 5 x $5.3 mill

2. Tomas Tatar, 194 in 345, signed for 4 x 5.3 mill

3. Kyle Palmieri, 146 in 280, signed for 5 x 4.65 mill (age 25)

4. Teuvo Teravainen, 189 in 326, signed for 5 x 5.4 mill (age 24)

5. Tyler Johnson, 211 in 308, signed for 7 x 5.0 mill

6. Tyler Toffoli, 175 in 293, 3 x 4.6 million

7. Jaden Schwartz, 157 in 240, 5 x 5.35 mill (age 25)

8. Jason Zucker, 172 in 330, 5 x 5.5 million

Other players a bit younger with similar contracts:

Alex Galchenyuk, 204 in 336, 3 x 4.9 mill (age 23)

Jonathan Huberdeau, 172 in 272, 6 x 5.9 mill (age 23)

Jake Guentzel, 114 in 158, 5 x 6 million (age 2$)


Pageau's stats:

Age 27, 157 points in 386 games, current cap hit is 3.1 million.

So if we assume that "at the time of signing", Pageau has had a career high season and hits 70 points, that gives him around 207 points in over 400 games played to work with. that's approximately 0.50 ppg average for a 27 year old in his prime. Hope this helps.

All those players were at over .5 ppg or way more. Even with Pageau’s outlier start he is at .4 ppg. I’d be very upset if they paid him over 4M or gave him more than 4 years.

 

[TheDebater]

Ok well, I decided to go back and re-adjust my research points to filter out players who signed as RFA and focus on the ones who were UFA when they signed a contract at 27+ years old. It probably does not get more specific than that, in terms of comparables:

Player/- Points(at signing)/- GP(at signing)/- Contract

1. Joonas Donskoi, 122 in 283, signed 4 x 3.9 million

2. Mathieu Perreault, 195 in 361. signed 4 x 4.12 million

3. David Perron, 444 in 722, signed for 4 x 4.0 million

4. Nick Bonino, 187 in 407, 4 x 4.1 million

5. Jonathan Marchessault, 107 in 159, 6 x 5.0 million

6. Jakob Silfverberg, 233 in 474, 5 x 5.25 million

7. Bryan Little, 432 in 672, 6 x 5.29 million

8. Mikael Backlund, 262 in 519, 6 x 5.35 million

There are more, but the above were signed fairly recently which make it easier to compare, but let us be honest now has the number really changed that much from my post above where I compared him to recent RFA signings? (I admit, an oversight by me).

Edit: I changed my wording above to "27 +" as some of the players mentioned signed the UFA deal between 27-30 years old.

 

[TheDebater]

The precedent was set with Matthews, which happened after all of those deals were signed.


His camp has so much to point to outside of the regular stats. He will be looking for ~6-7% of the cap I would think.

Ok well see my follow up post, either way, nothing has changed with regards to what you have said. 6-7% of the cap next year is still somewhere around 4.5-5.5 million. Which basically through what I have found is probably the perfect number for a guy like Pageau.

 

[BondraTime]

Ok well see my follow up post, either way, nothing has changed with regards to what you have said. 6-7% of the cap next year is still somewhere around 4.5-5.5 million. Which basically through what I have found is probably the perfect number for a guy like Pageau.

6% of the cap next year will be ~5 million. I'd think he ends up somewhere from 5-5.5 depending on what his length is, and how well he does this year. If he puts up 25+ goals or 50+ points that may likely jump higher.

If he stays with the Sens I can see 4.75ish

 

[Sens]

Ok well, I decided to go back and re-adjust my research points to filter out players who signed as RFA and focus on the ones who were UFA when they signed a contract at 27+ years old. It probably does not get more specific than that, in terms of comparables:

Player/- Points(at signing)/- GP(at signing)/- Contract

1. Joonas Donskoi, 122 in 283, signed 4 x 3.9 million

2. Mathieu Perreault, 195 in 361. signed 4 x 4.12 million

3. David Perron, 444 in 722, signed for 4 x 4.0 million

4. Nick Bonino, 187 in 407, 4 x 4.1 million

5. Jonathan Marchessault, 107 in 159, 6 x 5.0 million

6. Jakob Silfverberg, 233 in 474, 5 x 5.25 million

7. Bryan Little, 432 in 672, 6 x 5.29 million

8. Mikael Backlund, 262 in 519, 6 x 5.35 million

There are more, but the above were signed fairly recently which make it easier to compare, but let us be honest now has the number really changed that much from my post above where I compared him to recent RFA signings? (I admit, an oversight by me).

Edit: I changed my wording above to "27 +" as some of the players mentioned signed the UFA deal between 27-30 years old.

JGP is setting himself up for Brock Nelson type money

 

[Hale The Villain]

JGP is setting himself up for Brock Nelson type money

In a league where career 40-50P centers like Nelson and Hayes can get 6M and 7M+ respectively, I could see a team desperate for a center like Pageau throwing 6M at him on a long-term deal.

If he reverts back to his standard 30-40P production over a full season, a contract like that could be quite bad very quickly.

 

[Sweatred]

I think some fans here really need to take a deep breath and limit their freak-out over Pageau and his hot streak. I cannot harp enough about how contract negotiations work, it is not enough to look at one season, judge good or bad, and then give a contract based on that year. Here are some players who signed a contract at the age of 24-26 recently, their points at the time of signing, and what they signed for:


Player/- Points(at signing)/- GP(at signing)/- Contract


1. Ondrej Palat, 218p in 307gp , signed for 5 x $5.3 mill

2. Tomas Tatar, 194 in 345, signed for 4 x 5.3 mill

3. Kyle Palmieri, 146 in 280, signed for 5 x 4.65 mill (age 25)

4. Teuvo Teravainen, 189 in 326, signed for 5 x 5.4 mill (age 24)

5. Tyler Johnson, 211 in 308, signed for 7 x 5.0 mill

6. Tyler Toffoli, 175 in 293, 3 x 4.6 million

7. Jaden Schwartz, 157 in 240, 5 x 5.35 mill (age 25)

8. Jason Zucker, 172 in 330, 5 x 5.5 million

Other players a bit younger with similar contracts:

Alex Galchenyuk, 204 in 336, 3 x 4.9 mill (age 23)

Jonathan Huberdeau, 172 in 272, 6 x 5.9 mill (age 23)

Jake Guentzel, 114 in 158, 5 x 6 million (age 2$)


Pageau's stats:

Age 27, 157 points in 386 games, current cap hit is 3.1 million.

So if we assume that "at the time of signing", Pageau has had a career high season and hits 70 points, that gives him around 207 points in over 400 games played to work with. that's approximately 0.50 ppg average for a 27 year old in his prime. Hope this helps.

Pager's agent is free to cherry pick his position anyway he wants. There are no rules or conventions that they have to follow. They can make a strong comparable or a weak comparable. At the end of the day (TDL) they can take their chances at UFA and hope that 1/31 teams agrees with their position.

Anyway, half the comps you made there are probably close to what he gets from us or the open market anyway ($5+).

 

[DrEasy]

Ok well, I decided to go back and re-adjust my research points to filter out players who signed as RFA and focus on the ones who were UFA when they signed a contract at 27+ years old. It probably does not get more specific than that, in terms of comparables:

Player/- Points(at signing)/- GP(at signing)/- Contract

1. Joonas Donskoi, 122 in 283, signed 4 x 3.9 million

2. Mathieu Perreault, 195 in 361. signed 4 x 4.12 million

3. David Perron, 444 in 722, signed for 4 x 4.0 million

4. Nick Bonino, 187 in 407, 4 x 4.1 million

5. Jonathan Marchessault, 107 in 159, 6 x 5.0 million

6. Jakob Silfverberg, 233 in 474, 5 x 5.25 million

7. Bryan Little, 432 in 672, 6 x 5.29 million

8. Mikael Backlund, 262 in 519, 6 x 5.35 million

There are more, but the above were signed fairly recently which make it easier to compare, but let us be honest now has the number really changed that much from my post above where I compared him to recent RFA signings? (I admit, an oversight by me).

Edit: I changed my wording above to "27 +" as some of the players mentioned signed the UFA deal between 27-30 years old.

Perron's deal looks really cheap. Wish we had him at that price.