That seems to be the prevailing thought among the hockey community. Some Sens fans talk 6M on the open market which is obscene.
Player Discussion Jean-Gabriel Pageau
- Thread starter Super Cake
- Start date
L'Aveuglette
つ ◕_◕ ༽つ
Caeldan
Whippet Whisperer
- Jun 21, 2008
- 15,459
- 1,046
6% of the cap, yes. 6M? I don't think I've seen anyone suggest that.
5.5M I'd top out at on three years or less. 4.5 to 5M I'd go 5+ years.
4M is an absolute steal if he signs that.
Slack
everything's fine?
- Apr 27, 2012
- 3,692
- 466
Dean Brown is a complete and utter chucklehead. Thank god he's been relegated to the radio.
RedWhiteBlackGold
Veteran User
Pageau is awesome and would love to sign him but this will be his payday contract and I'm not sure it fits in with where this team is right now. He likely regresses back to that perfect 3rd line center/1st penalty killer you want out there.
Kind of like Z.Smith, he upped his game to get paid, then sat on his hands after it was inked. Pageau is a top notch penalty killer so he's worth more, but not sure if he's worth what he could get in the open market.
Kind of like Z.Smith, he upped his game to get paid, then sat on his hands after it was inked. Pageau is a top notch penalty killer so he's worth more, but not sure if he's worth what he could get in the open market.
He’s not really at all like Smith though.
It looks more like he’s benefitting from a change in the way the team plays, and being given more opportunities to play.
He still gets defensive assignments, but’s he’s been creating offence, and has been scoring on his own. He’s not benefitting from playing with top players all of a sudden, and getting PP points.
He could be riding a contract high, but its virtually all of his own doing, rather than riding any coattails.
It looks more like he’s benefitting from a change in the way the team plays, and being given more opportunities to play.
He still gets defensive assignments, but’s he’s been creating offence, and has been scoring on his own. He’s not benefitting from playing with top players all of a sudden, and getting PP points.
He could be riding a contract high, but its virtually all of his own doing, rather than riding any coattails.
Sens of Anarchy
Registered User
- Jul 9, 2013
- 65,526
- 50,249
ReginKarlssonLehner
Let's Win It All
Micklebot
Moderator
- Apr 27, 2010
- 54,041
- 31,241
Based on natural stattricks expected goal model, he's actually not been any more effective than past years at least 5v5. He's on a hot streak for sure, but he is wildly outperforming their expected individual Goals model scoring around 3 times as much as they predict.
Edit: that said, from what I understand there has been some changes to how the NHL tracks shot location data that has thrown off a lot of the xG models, so I'm not sure how confident one should be in them.
He is playing hard but 4 assists through this many games is telling about his overall offensive contributions.
Not sure how it works for advanced stats and I know scoring goals is the ultimate skill but personally I always look to assists when evaluating how effective and offensive player is. Cy Young winners generally don't support team success like a more balanced player does IMO.
For clarity this is not an attack or condemnation on JGP in any way - I have loved him since his first rookie tourney - just adding my context to his season. Ideally he keeps it up, we trade him for at least a 1st rounder and then have the luxury of overpaying for a shorter term contract in the Summer to get him back.
Not sure how it works for advanced stats and I know scoring goals is the ultimate skill but personally I always look to assists when evaluating how effective and offensive player is. Cy Young winners generally don't support team success like a more balanced player does IMO.
For clarity this is not an attack or condemnation on JGP in any way - I have loved him since his first rookie tourney - just adding my context to his season. Ideally he keeps it up, we trade him for at least a 1st rounder and then have the luxury of overpaying for a shorter term contract in the Summer to get him back.
Masked
(Super/star)
He's also not playing with pure snipers or getting PP time with goal scorers. Are Connor Brown's numbers sustainable without Pageau's hot streak bumping them up?
He's never had much of an opportunity to play on a scoring line outside of a half season with Stone and Smith where he ripped it up.
He's never had much of an opportunity to play on a scoring line outside of a half season with Stone and Smith where he ripped it up.
Sens of Anarchy
Registered User
- Jul 9, 2013
- 65,526
- 50,249
Pageau stock has never been higher.
An interesting dilemma for PD.
I suspect he will get more on the open market than he will in Ottawa and his agent will undoubtedly encourage him to do so.
Max term for me would be 5 years at 5 mill given the hyper salaries owners are now dishing out.
The dilemma......sign at market value or trade before he goes back to being the old JG Pageau.
An interesting dilemma for PD.
I suspect he will get more on the open market than he will in Ottawa and his agent will undoubtedly encourage him to do so.
Max term for me would be 5 years at 5 mill given the hyper salaries owners are now dishing out.
The dilemma......sign at market value or trade before he goes back to being the old JG Pageau.
stempniaksen
Registered User
- Oct 12, 2008
- 11,084
- 4,363
Late to the party of this, but it makes me nervous when I hear this kind of talk from Brown/Garrioch. They both seem like mouthpieces for the team more so than guys sharing their own opinions. I didn't hear the interview, so maybe I'm lacking context, but I can't help but feel like if this is something that Brown is trumpeting it's something he heard from the org (i.e not committing that kind of money to Pager).
I've thought for awhile he could be the one guy that actually re-signed (Dorion loves him and he's not at the same level as guys like EK and Stone who can choose to leave and still get their paydays) but the writing on the wall is starting to look like he's gonna be on the move.
Rangers had to make a similar choice when it came to trading or re-signing Kevin Hayes last year.
6'5, 220lb 26YR old center that was on pace for 67P/82GP in his contract year, despite being a career 40-50P center. Got a 1st + Lemieux at the deadline from WPG, which they then turned into Trouba in the off-season.
Could have thrown Hayes a big contract and overpaid him to keep him in a Ranger's uniform, but I bet they are pretty happy they took the assets and let another team overpay him on a long-term deal. We should do the same with Pageau.
6'5, 220lb 26YR old center that was on pace for 67P/82GP in his contract year, despite being a career 40-50P center. Got a 1st + Lemieux at the deadline from WPG, which they then turned into Trouba in the off-season.
Could have thrown Hayes a big contract and overpaid him to keep him in a Ranger's uniform, but I bet they are pretty happy they took the assets and let another team overpay him on a long-term deal. We should do the same with Pageau.
The only way I see it making sense to keep Pageau is if he agrees to take a large hometown discount, combined with teams not putting a 1st+ on the table for him at the deadline.
If teams get stingy and only offer a 2nd+, and Pageau is willing to take 4-5M a year on a long-term deal, that's where re-signing him starts to look like the best option.
Maybe offering Pageau the captaincy could help facilitate a large hometown discount. He'd be a good choice, at least for the short-term until a better alternative presents itself.
If teams get stingy and only offer a 2nd+, and Pageau is willing to take 4-5M a year on a long-term deal, that's where re-signing him starts to look like the best option.
Maybe offering Pageau the captaincy could help facilitate a large hometown discount. He'd be a good choice, at least for the short-term until a better alternative presents itself.
It’s not just Garrioch and Brown saying that JGPs market value is 4M max, Bob McKenzie says his value is between 3.5-4M.
stempniaksen
Registered User
- Oct 12, 2008
- 11,084
- 4,363
And there it is.
Even the biggest JGP backers would have a problem with this, imo.
Love the player, but 6 years would be a mistake.
maclean
Registered User
- Jan 4, 2014
- 8,544
- 2,640
I mean, I'm for re-signing him, but a 1st and a good prospect?? We didn't even get that for Stone
I'd rather the Sens not be the team that overpays Pageau. He's on track for an overpayment followed by a probable regression to historic production. If the Sens could get a 1st and a prospect, I'd jump on that instantly.
Alex1234
Registered User
- Oct 14, 2014
- 16,212
- 6,366
Exactly this
We're not ready to compete
And by the time Pageau will be declining at 5 per
And then we will cry because no money for Clarke or someone else
Norris or Abramov can be our Pageau in 3-4 years
