Jason Botterill Discussion 3

[Zman5778]

I think Golisano and doing everything on a budget happened leading to the drop off. Scouting was gutted and the infamous videos scouting was implemented.

Well yeah. But once Pegula pumped money back into the department, he didn't regain his touch....like at all. His last 3 drafts were kind of abysmal (granted 11 was a terrible, terrible year) and he didn't make like anything out of his high picks outside of Girgs and McCabe (and maybe Compher?)

 

[Zman5778]

We seem to **** up the timing of everything. We needed the money bags owner after the bankruptcy. I still appreciate what Golisano did to save the team. But many of the policies he and Quinn implemented killed our scouting while simultaneously crippling our ability to keep the talent on the NHL roster. It was a double whammy. Which directly led to the need to strip it down and bottom out. We then hired complete inexperienced and in over the hands management (Lafontaine/Murray). To led us into and out of a complete tear down. Now we hired the plodding slow builder to set things right.

When we needed the plodding slow builder after Darcy, and then maybe the aggressive gambler GM after that to finish things off.

 

[Fjordy]

I do not really understand how can justify Botts and constantly refer to Murray’s poor governance. We have no place in a cap? So tradee extra players for picks, only this had to be done in the summer and not drag Jimmy Vesey here, who doesn’t even want to play here.

 

[joshjull]

I do not really understand how can justify Botts and constantly refer to Murray’s poor governance. We have no place in a cap? So tradee extra players for picks, only this had to be done in the summer and not drag Jimmy Vesey here, who doesn’t even want to play here.

Its not so much a matter of justifying Botts so much as it is trying to explain the utter and complete mess Murray left us with. I think some on here are still in denial about that. That doesn’t mean Botts shouldn’t be criticized for the things he is responsible for. Like hiring Phil Housley. Something he should be tarred and feathered for.

As for the cap situation. Its pretty clear Botts intended to let the crappy deals run out instead of buying them out or wasting picks to unload them. We don’t have a ton of cap space this year. But things are wide open going forward to shape the team and in the long run thats what matters.

There are 15 teams so far (roughly half the NHL) that has had to use LTIR to stay cap compliant this season. We are hardly the only team up against it in terms of the cap.

 

[Chainshot]

Always wondered what happened there. At the beginning of his tenure, he was always unearthing gems (Campbell, Kotalik, Miller, Wideman, Hejda, Sekera, Kaleta, Butler, Gerbe) outside of the first 2 rounds.............and then the well ran empty.

Regier seemed to have one good year in the second round in his tenure and whiffed on the rest. They may have drafted Wideman but they didn't sign him, instead choosing Paetsch based on training camp and running a half-squad in Rochester. Hejda they tossed to the Oilers for a 7th rounder, with him never lacing up the skates. Butler? Rushed. Meaningful players he found outside of the first round in almost 15 years on the job were Miller and Campbell (who lets not forget took forever to arrive as the player he became). He blew so many first rounders. That 2010 draft is an epic failure. 2005-2007 were almost as bad as 2010.

Girgensons, Grigorenko, Zadorov and Ristolainen all got pushed in early under Regier. His lean scouting staff from the late 2000's was the founder of the tank feast - that they didn't have anyone in the system worth grooming up so that when the tank picks arrived, so too did some 21-22-23 year old pros with upside nor did they have the mid-20-somethings to lean on as part of the core because they had wasted so many picks.

 

[joshjull]

Regier seemed to have one good year in the second round in his tenure and whiffed on the rest. They may have drafted Wideman but they didn't sign him, instead choosing Paetsch based on training camp and running a half-squad in Rochester. Hejda they tossed to the Oilers for a 7th rounder, with him never lacing up the skates. Butler? Rushed. Meaningful players he found outside of the first round in almost 15 years on the job were Miller and Campbell (who lets not forget took forever to arrive as the player he became). He blew so many first rounders. That 2010 draft is an epic failure. 2005-2007 were almost as bad as 2010.

Girgensons, Grigorenko, Zadorov and Ristolainen all got pushed in early under Regier. His lean scouting staff from the late 2000's was the founder of the tank feast - that they didn't have anyone in the system worth grooming up so that when the tank picks arrived, so too did some 21-22-23 year old pros with upside nor did they have the mid-20-somethings to lean on as part of the core because they had wasted so many picks.

Regier seemed at his best when he was able to wait out another GM to squeeze as much value from a deal as possible.

 

[Fjordy]

Its not so much a matter of justifying Botts so much as it is trying to explain the utter and complete mess Murray left us with. I think some on here are still in denial about that. That doesn’t mean Botts shouldn’t be criticized for the things he is responsible for. Like hiring Phil Housley. Something he should be tarred and feathered for.

As for the cap situation. Its pretty clear Botts intended to let the crappy deals run out instead of buying them out or wasting picks to unload them. We don’t have a ton of cap space this year. But things are wide open going forward to shape the team and in the long run thats what matters.

There are 15 teams so far (roughly half the NHL) that has had to use LTIR to stay cap compliant this season. We are hardly the only team up against it in terms of the cap.

I understand, but what the hell is he the third season in the team, has already hired a second coach and the situation does not look very good.

He took a lot of stupid steps that had nothing to do with Murray, he was to blame for the fact that the team was at the limit of the cap, he was so happy about the depth of defense and constantly mentioned that he did not notice that our attack simply sucks and is one of the worst in the league , now let him correct the situation, and not wait for the next season, when some contracts will free up space in the cap. Because I'm sure that new excuses will begin next season: no one wants to play Buffalo (for UFA signatures), the market is hard, I like our prospects, Mittelstadt is ready for the role of 2C, and so on, there will be many such excuses from Botts.

 

[Chainshot]

Regier seemed at his best when he was able to wait out another GM to squeeze as much value from a deal as possible.

In terms of prospects and picks? Sure. In terms of team-building and filling holes, he was far too slow. And his drafting and development record was poor over the tenure of his time. It's not even just failing, it's that the whiffs leave nothing later -- it isn't like they could spin Marek Zagrapan or Dennis Persson for something down the line when they were part of the purge because they were both never-weres. Same with a guy like Kryukov. He botched trying to move up to draft Nash because someone at his table couldn't keep their mouth shut and MacLean overheard and shuffled up to make sure he got him (which would've been funny, because that was rumored to have been Ryan Miller going the other way... who knows, maybe with Millzie, the Thrashers become something other than an asterisk). Heck, if we're kicking things over, his 1999 and 2000 drafts turned up two great players in the fifth (Miller) and seventh (Gaustad) but the rest of the picks were pretty weak. Of the 18 other guys in those two drafts, none could ever be referred to as an NHL regular for a single NHL season. Then 2001 he knocks the second round out of the park, but whiffed on Novotny's situation (which still parallels Girgensons' to me... get him playing time against his peers, not in the AHL).

Bleh. Hated his tenure.

 

[joshjull]

In terms of prospects and picks? Sure. In terms of team-building and filling holes, he was far too slow. And his drafting and development record was poor over the tenure of his time. It's not even just failing, it's that the whiffs leave nothing later -- it isn't like they could spin Marek Zagrapan or Dennis Persson for something down the line when they were part of the purge because they were both never-weres. Same with a guy like Kryukov. He botched trying to move up to draft Nash because someone at his table couldn't keep their mouth shut and MacLean overheard and shuffled up to make sure he got him (which would've been funny, because that was rumored to have been Ryan Miller going the other way... who knows, maybe with Millzie, the Thrashers become something other than an asterisk). Heck, if we're kicking things over, his 1999 and 2000 drafts turned up two great players in the fifth (Miller) and seventh (Gaustad) but the rest of the picks were pretty weak. Of the 18 other guys in those two drafts, none could ever be referred to as an NHL regular for a single NHL season. Then 2001 he knocks the second round out of the park, but whiffed on Novotny's situation (which still parallels Girgensons' to me... get him playing time against his peers, not in the AHL).

Bleh. Hated his tenure.

I was thinking more along the lines of when he was in a position to be patient. Like the bankruptcy and rebuild after it. He had time then to wait others out since there was no urgency. When he didn’t have the advantage of being able to wait he wasn’t as good.

I have mixed feelings on his tenure but it was certainly more enjoyable than the time frame since his firing. I’m not pining for his return. I’m pining for relevance as a team

 

[jc17]

Here's my attempt at the Murray trade history when deleting duplicates and ignoring the minor ones.
Color coded by a combination of value now and value at the time of the trade, which is obviously very subjective and not really the point.

We definitely lost quite a bit, and maybe thats part of the issue is now. Most GM's have room to make bad moves and survive. 2 or 3 bad moves by Botterill isn't good enough with what we have

 

[Chainshot]

I was thinking more along the lines of when he was in a position to be patient. Like the bankruptcy and rebuild after it. He had time then to wait others out since there was no urgency. When he didn’t have the advantage of being able to wait he wasn’t as good.

I have mixed feelings on his tenure but it was certainly more enjoyable than the time frame since his firing. I’m not pining for his return. I’m pining for relevance as a team

Even when he was waiting, he hurt himself. He waited out the Peca trade and it alienated Dom. Same sort of BS with the Drury and Briere negotiations - didn't start in the summer, just put out an offer to Drury in the fall and never got back to Chris people about it. Or all the free agents he rented and never had the decency to tell them if he was or wasn't interested prior to them hitting the market (Heinze and Audette 2.0 both talked about not getting calls).

They won despite him. The '06 and '07 teams are more of a perfect storm than anything. Most of his tenure was Dom and a string of poor decisions, even if they have mitigating factors. He was bad at drafting and development under three different owners. I don't see how if they had retained him, this team would be that much better today.

 

[joshjull]

Even when he was waiting, he hurt himself. He waited out the Peca trade and it alienated Dom. Same sort of BS with the Drury and Briere negotiations - didn't start in the summer, just put out an offer to Drury in the fall and never got back to Chris people about it. Or all the free agents he rented and never had the decency to tell them if he was or wasn't interested prior to them hitting the market (Heinze and Audette 2.0 both talked about not getting calls).

They won despite him. The '06 and '07 teams are more of a perfect storm than anything. Most of his tenure was Dom and a string of poor decisions, even if they have mitigating factors. He was bad at drafting and development under three different owners. I don't see how if they had retained him, this team would be that much better today.

I get it . You dont like Regier.

 

[joshjull]

View attachment 277523

Here's my attempt at the Murray trade history when deleting duplicates and ignoring the minor ones.
Color coded by a combination of value now and value at the time of the trade, which is obviously very subjective and not really the point.

We definitely lost quite a bit, and maybe thats part of the issue is now. Most GM's have room to make bad moves and survive. 2 or 3 bad moves by Botterill isn't good enough with what we have

He moved out two 2015 first rounders as well as a 2nd rounder (31st overall). But nice job all the same

 

[joshjull]

I understand, but what the hell is he the third season in the team, has already hired a second coach and the situation does not look very good.

He took a lot of stupid steps that had nothing to do with Murray, he was to blame for the fact that the team was at the limit of the cap, he was so happy about the depth of defense and constantly mentioned that he did not notice that our attack simply sucks and is one of the worst in the league , now let him correct the situation, and not wait for the next season, when some contracts will free up space in the cap. Because I'm sure that new excuses will begin next season: no one wants to play Buffalo (for UFA signatures), the market is hard, I like our prospects, Mittelstadt is ready for the role of 2C, and so on, there will be many such excuses from Botts.

I agree with you that Botts needs to show something in his 3rd season. Another flame out is unacceptable.

I also agree that he needs to get help up front. I’d say two top 6/9 forwards. Now that the defense is healthy or as close to fully healthy as you can expect. He now has the pieces to make the moves needed to improve the forwards. Like you, I’ll be waiting to see what he does.

I’m not that worried about the cap situation. If need be teams can work in players that balance out the cap to make a trade happen. Players can be sent down as well to get compliant. One advantage of having so many guys on expiring deals is we have plenty of guys to use to balance out a trade cap wise.

As for next season and filing holes. If I had to guess the plan is to let the kids like Cozens, Pekar, Tage and Asplund to fill holes up front. Maybe a minor trade or two and a minor UFA signing or two. I don’t think Botts will be relying on big name UFA signings.


I’m neither excited nor too down about the situation right now. The pieces are getting in place for Botts to make moves. Now we wait to see what he does. Your guess is as good as mine as to what happens next.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Year one scapegoat: Ryan O'Reilly
Year two scapegoat: Phil Housley
Year three scapegoat: ?????

Three strikes and yerrrr out, Pal!

 

[Jim Bob]

Year one scapegoat: Ryan O'Reilly
Year two scapegoat: Phil Housley
Year three scapegoat: ?????

Three strikes and yerrrr out, Pal!

Dahlin better not be the scapegoat for this season.

I'm hoping it is the dynamic duo: Vladimir Vesey.

 

[jc17]

He moved out two 2015 first rounders as well as a 2nd rounder (31st overall). But nice job all the same

Right, I just took out anything he acquired and traded away so its sort of a net gain/loss/

So if he traded for a first rounder, then traded one away it cancels out on that list

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

That's worse than I thought.

It partially explains the situation we're in but doesn't exonerate Botterill either, I think both can be true. Jason can't be entirely blamed for the current situation, but seeing Vesey, Sheary, Sobotka as solutions for our forward's issues have little to do with Murray's moves.

The argument can be made that we'd have guys in the system playing those roles if not for Murray, which may be true, but Botterill is also at fault for wasting assets getting lousy players.

If the team stunk, and Botterill was handcuffed into a few AHLers because of cap reasons or a lack of assets literally preventing him from getting players, I'd understand, but the team is struggling after sacrificing more assets for players that aren't the solution.

Botterill has indeed shipped out some futures for crappy players, but the quality of those futures that he wasted were much less than what Murray wasted. The main trades that Botterill used futures on were eventual downgrades in picks like the Beaulieu and Scandella trades, or giving them away straight up in the Sheary, Skinner, and Miller trades. The first few of those were meant to change out the guys who had no business in an NHL sweater for guys that at least had some veteran respect (Scandella, Pominville, Hunwick, Sheary). Those moves also bought time, putting some passable NHLers on the ice so prospects could have time to develop where they belonged, instead of being rushed to Buffalo. Later it was to acquire valuable players to effectively fill holes (Skinner, Montour, Miller). Nobody should have a problem with the later deals, and I don't think anyone does.

Vesey is actually just like the first few trades. He was semi-cheap to acquire, and he'll get flipped at the TDL for a near equivalent pick, to make room for Thompson. I won't care if he only gets a 4th or 5th if it means Thompson is better off joining the team as a better player. Now if this doesn't happen, and Vesey stays through the TDL I won't be happy. Is it because Botterill was only offered a 7th? I don't care because he should get shipped out anyway. Is it because Thompson looks not ready for the NHL? That makes more sense, but then it also shows he probably struck out on the best (least worst) part of the ROR trade. Maybe Sheary gets traded instead, and injuries mean a mediocre pick for Vesey isn't worth it at the time. We'll see, but what makes most sense, and what I expect to happen, validates the Vesey trade.

 

[joshjull]

Right, I just took out anything he acquired and traded away so its sort of a net gain/loss/

So if he traded for a first rounder, then traded one away it cancels out on that list

That makes sense. Thanks for clarifying

 

[joshjull]

That's worse than I thought.

It partially explains the situation we're in but doesn't exonerate Botterill either, I think both can be true. Jason can't be entirely blamed for the current situation, but seeing Vesey, Sheary, Sobotka as solutions for our forward's issues have little to do with Murray's moves.

The argument can be made that we'd have guys in the system playing those roles if not for Murray, which may be true, but Botterill is also at fault for wasting assets getting lousy players.

If the team stunk, and Botterill was handcuffed into a few AHLers because of cap reasons or a lack of assets literally preventing him from getting players, I'd understand, but the team is struggling after sacrificing more assets for players that aren't the solution.

The mess Murray left goes well beyond having absolutely nothing in the system. Murray left us with a bad roster full of holes which was compounded by the lack of answers in house. He also left a dysfunctional locker room that had to be dealt with and a handful of bad to horrible contracts to sort out. Addressing the locker room issues and bad contracts further complicated filing holes on the roster. Since it led to some trades and transactions that were done simply to move on from players/contracts. All of that falls on Murray for creating the mess in the first place.

 

[joshjull]

@jc17

At the time of Murray’s firing we had returning d-corp of Risto, McCabe, Bogo and Gorges. No one would want that as our top 4. Or in Gorges case even on the roster. You can’t magically transform that defense into a good top 4 with quality depth in 1 or 2 off seasons. Its even harder to do when there is nothing coming from within other than Guhle. Who would be a pro rookie the season after Murray firing.

Murray also left some not so good to ridiculously bad contracts to deal with which further complicated things;

Ennis 2yrs left @ 4.6mil per
Moulson 2yrs 5mil per
Bogo 3yrs 5.142mil
Okposo 6yrs 6mil per
Risto 5yrs 5.4mil per.

We effectively used Foligno to move out Ennis and got Pommer/Scandella in return. While we filled a defensive hole with this deal we opened a forward hole with 2 out and 1 in. Moulson eventually gets waived to the minors creating another hole to fill. Okposo is dead weight we’re just stuck with as is Bogo since he can’t stay healthy. Risto may or may not get moved on from soon. We shall see.

Last but certainly not least is addressing the dysfunctional locker room. The first move on that front was Kane heading out the door to the Sharks. It creates another forward hole to fill. Then we don’t qualify Lehner and let him leave for nothing creating a hole in net.

All of the above entirely on Murray as is absolutely nothing coming to help from within.

I view Botts job so far as two years of clean up and restocking with this summer as the first one with an eyed towards building. even though there is still some clean up to come. He’s added Miller, Pilut, Montour, Joker to the defense since last year’s deadline. Obviously Dahlin but thats luck. We have the pieces on the backend to make moves to bolster the forward while still having the ability to put together a good d-corp. Next season will start to see some more in house help for the forwards with Cozens, Pekar and R2 coming from Botts into the fold (not 100% sure but I think R2 can be here next season). We will also have a Murray hold over Asplund and the results of the Tage project in Rochester as options as well

Botts has no excuses to not make moves with the assets he now has at hand. This season is on him. He has the coach he initially wanted and the assets to make moves. If he fails this will be the first season I think its fair to say its entirely on him.

 

[TehDoak]

The mess Murray left goes well beyond having absolutely nothing in the system. Murray left us with a bad roster full of holes which was compounded by the lack of answers in house. He also left a dysfunctional locker room that had to be dealt with and a handful of bad to horrible contracts to sort out. Addressing the locker room issues and bad contracts further complicated filing holes on the roster. Since it led to some trades and transactions that were done simply to move on from players/contracts. All of that falls on Murray for creating the mess in the first place.

I won't dispute that Murray's did a bad job, but his refusal to address the defense meaningfully was his downfall.

J-Bott's has been essentially bargain shopping his entire time, picking up "help" cheap (Sheary, Vesey, Scandella, Beaulieu, Miller, Skinner, and Johanssen). He's paid a premium for two pieces (Jokiharu and Montour) and basically gave away O'Reilly for scraps. The team has needed to address the 2nd line center since 7/1 of last year. He brought on a glut of D-men and hasn't resolved it. He's tossed away 2 seasons and on the verge of tossing a 3rd away if he doesn't make a series of moves. He had some serious heavy lifting to do this summer and stopped about 1/3rd of the way through.

 

[joshjull]

I won't dispute that Murray's did a bad job, but his refusal to address the defense meaningfully was his downfall.

J-Bott's has been essentially bargain shopping his entire time, picking up "help" cheap (Sheary, Vesey, Scandella, Beaulieu, Miller, Skinner, and Johanssen). He's paid a premium for two pieces (Jokiharu and Montour) and basically gave away O'Reilly for scraps. The team has needed to address the 2nd line center since 7/1 of last year. He brought on a glut of D-men and hasn't resolved it. He's tossed away 2 seasons and on the verge of tossing a 3rd away if he doesn't make a series of moves. He had some serious heavy lifting to do this summer and stopped about 1/3rd of the way through.

See my post above

 

[Chainshot]

Dahlin better not be the scapegoat for this season.

I'm hoping it is the dynamic duo: Vladimir Vesey.

Clearly he was saddled with those two crappy players by the previous regime. Oh. Wait. Nevermind.

 

[Jim Bob]

It is perfectly reasonable to believe that both Murray and Botterill were/are below average NHL GMs.

Hopefully the third time is the charm when the Pegula's hire a GM for the Sabres.