I will be extremely surprised if Jake makes under 6 and would expect him to go above 7.
Comparables (based on age):
Gaudreau - $6.75 million
Pastrnak - $6.67 million
Monahan - $6.375 million
MacKinnon - $6.3 million
Scheifele - $6.125 million
Forsberg - $6 million
Ehlers - $6 million
Barkov - $5.9 million
Drouin - $5.5 million
There is zero evidence to suggest Guentzel should get above $7 million. The guys who signed most recently (Pastrnak, Ehlers) are in the $6 to $6.67 million range, and both have more of a regular season resume.
Cap could potentially go up by 7 million.
This is Justin Schultz all over again. No chance Jake gets under 6 even on a short term deal.
Another long playoffs with his current production and another good year next year and he is setting himself up to get paid.
Schultz was ready to be a UFA if the Pens didn't pony up. Guentzel's still a RFA for a couple of years, so he's got less bargaining position.
Those guys are comparables. Take a guy like Ehlers. Even if you factored in the Cap going up, you're looking at his salary range anyway due to Ehlers being more proven over multiple seasons.
I won't be surprised if he gets slightly over $6 million per year. But I disagree 100% with your comment about him likely getting above $7. There's literally no precedent for that for a player with Jake's resume.
What other player on your list had just set a rookie playoff goal scoring record on a cup winner and then put up better playoff numbers the next year?
And Jake could easily have a monster regular season next year if he is with Crosby.
If he puts up 60-70 next year what is preventing him for asking for Drai money?
Schultz had one year left as an RFA also right?
I guess we will see. I think Jake makes at least 6.5 mil. I was right about Schultz and Sheary last summer.
I’ll @Sidney the Kidney if I’m right
You're picking a salary that I even said I could see happening? How generous of you.
My issue was with the "above $7 million" comment. That's the one where I said there's no comparable of his that suggests he'd get that much.
If Jake signs for 6+ years with a large increase in salary I could see him pushing 7 mil.
We can see how it goes, I’m just saying I wouldn’t be surprised to see him break the bank if he waits to sign.
Only because of the cap. Guy deserves a billion with how good he is in the playoffs. Somebody give this man a billion dollars. Where's drunk Ed Belfour when you need him?The good news is it will be less than a billion dollars
What are you talking about? Guentzel's a 30-40 point winger on any other team. Anyone can put up points with Crosby bouncing pucks in off his head while they just stand there doing nothing.
Depends on the year he has next season I think, if he cracks 50+, he's going for 5.5-6.5m.I will be extremely surprised if Jake makes under 6 and would expect him to go above 7.
I'm assuming they'll ink him to a deal as soon as they're legally allowed to, which would be sometime this summer. That's how most teams approach "high end" RFAs whose ELCs are about to expire.
In any case, you're basing his entire contract on his playoff numbers. I'm saying I don't think teams do that. They'll take into account his regular season totals, too. And so far, Jake's got half a season and a full season of 48 points on his resume. His playoff production would probably just add another $500k to $750k to whatever he'd get based on his regular season production.
One year left of RFA, you're right. But the contract is eating up a couple of UFA years. Guentzel's deal will be about 2 or 3 years of RFA status.
And don't forget, Schultz at $5.5 million is the going rate for top four defensemen. It's not like the Pens overpaid him compared to other players similar to him. Whereas in your first post, you'd be paying Guentzel MORE than his comparables. Schultz's salary is right in line with his type of player.