Jake's next contract

Peat

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Jun 14, 2016
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That would no longer be at this point though. He would have solidified some of the expectation.
There is absolutely no immediate need to give him 5 million for any length of contract. The risks outweigh the potential for it to be higher later. He is a small player that is vulnerable to drop off after a few minor injuries build up.

Could you point to all these small players who've dropped off after a few minor injuries added up in the modern NHL? Because I'm struggling to think of them.

And if you're right, I'm struggling to see how the risk is any significantly less after 3 years as a pro than it is after 2.
 
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Crosbyfan

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Nov 27, 2003
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Could you point to all these small players who've dropped off after a few minor injuries added up in the modern NHL? Because I'm struggling to think of them.

And if you're right, I'm struggling to see how the risk is any significantly less after 3 years as a pro than it is after 2.
Sorry, I'm not going to provide a list, but we have the option with Jake to take a look at that third year and see how he does. At that point if he has not been signed he's an RFA and still an asset. We don't need to buy at a possible peak after a very nice playoffs. He can't sell his services to any other NHL Team at this point, and can't for a while. Overpaying because he might do even better and thus possibly getting a deal is not good cap management IMO. Short of Jake initiating a bargain deal I think it is best to wait until at least mid season and see how he does in whatever roles he has been put in.
 

cheesedanish87

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Jun 27, 2012
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Arvidsson would be a good comparable IMO.

Arvidsson has better regular season numbers, but Jake has better playoff numbers.

He signed a 7 year contract at 4.25 million.

Nashville has less taxes so maybe you have to give Jake 4.5 million to make up for the tax difference.
 

Peat

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Jun 14, 2016
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Arvidsson would be a good comparable IMO.

Arvidsson has better regular season numbers, but Jake has better playoff numbers.

He signed a 7 year contract at 4.25 million.

Nashville has less taxes so maybe you have to give Jake 4.5 million to make up for the tax difference.

That's really generous of him, because there's plenty of guys with the same numbers making more. It'd be nice if Guentzel followed the same path but I'm not holding my breath.

Sorry, I'm not going to provide a list, but we have the option with Jake to take a look at that third year and see how he does. At that point if he has not been signed he's an RFA and still an asset. We don't need to buy at a possible peak after a very nice playoffs. He can't sell his services to any other NHL Team at this point, and can't for a while. Overpaying because he might do even better and thus possibly getting a deal is not good cap management IMO. Short of Jake initiating a bargain deal I think it is best to wait until at least mid season and see how he does in whatever roles he has been put in.

I think you're underestimating what point scoring RFA forwards make. 5m isn't an overpayment.
 

Clare2904

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Why should Pittsburgh have to make up any tax difference when the cost of living is lower than other major NHL cities.
 

Crosbyfan

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Nov 27, 2003
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I think you're underestimating what point scoring RFA forwards make. 5m isn't an overpayment.
Possibly. But Jake is not an RFA yet, and his points have come while playing on one of the highest scoring Teams. I would wait and see unless he is looking for less.
 

Ryder71

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Nov 24, 2017
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Throw out a 5x5 extension this summer and see what happens. He’s worth it.
That sounds about right to me as well. His playoff performances have been remarkable. Before this years playoffs I was thinking four million per, but now five seems far more likely.
 

Sidney the Kidney

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Jun 29, 2009
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I think Jake and his camp would probably prefer a 5 year deal over a 7 or 8, simply because it gives him a chance to hit free agency right when he's still in his prime and can really make bank at that point.
 

cygnus47

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Sep 14, 2013
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I think Jake and his camp would probably prefer a 5 year deal over a 7 or 8, simply because it gives him a chance to hit free agency right when he's still in his prime and can really make bank at that point.

Especially since Sid and Geno will likely be dropping off even in the playoffs by then. We might not be competing for cups anymore and he'd be ready for a huge pay day from someone ready to compete for the rest of his career.
 
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EightyOne

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Nov 23, 2016
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Sorry, I'm not going to provide a list, but we have the option with Jake to take a look at that third year and see how he does. At that point if he has not been signed he's an RFA and still an asset. We don't need to buy at a possible peak after a very nice playoffs. He can't sell his services to any other NHL Team at this point, and can't for a while. Overpaying because he might do even better and thus possibly getting a deal is not good cap management IMO. Short of Jake initiating a bargain deal I think it is best to wait until at least mid season and see how he does in whatever roles he has been put in.

I disagree with everything you wrote.

It's 50/50. One of our opinions is gonna end up being very wrong.
 

Crosbyfan

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Nov 27, 2003
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I disagree with everything you wrote.

It's 50/50. One of our opinions is gonna end up being very wrong.

Half of it is obviously my opinion. Half of it I presented as facts. If you disagree with all of it one of us is very misinformed with regard to the facts.
I have no idea what your opinion or position is. From what I can tell this is your first post in the thread.
The opposite of what I said (the opinion part) might be offer Jake the maximum immediately or whatever it takes...but how much is that...and for how long? Or it could be trade him...or fire him into the Sun...
 

Sidney the Kidney

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Jun 29, 2009
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@Sidney the Kidney still think Jake is making under 7 if he signs long term with that Kane deal?

In a world where McDavid and Drai get 12, Eichel gets 10+, secondary top six wingers are swinging right in that 6.5-7 mil range.

The Kane deal has zero impact on Guentzel because one is UFA and holds all the control, while the other is RFA and is still property of the Pens.

I'll say it again, I'll be surprised if Guentzel gets more than the Ehlers/Pastrnak range. I know he's coming off two straight strong playoffs, but regular season is also factored in and thus far he's got a career high 48 points. I'd be shocked if that's enough to land him $7+ million.

Btw, Draisaitl will make $8.5 million. Not sure where you got $12 million.
 

Empoleon8771

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Aug 25, 2015
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Guentzel just doesn't have the resume that stacks up with guys who got huge contracts as RFAs. People are really overestimating the impact that having 2 good runs is going to have, Guentzel doesn't have the sustained regular season numbers to go over $6 million. If Guentzel puts up a near PPG season next year (so 60+ points), then he'll be in the Pastrnak or Scheifele range of money. If he's signed before the season, he just doesn't have the resume to get that.
 

Sidney the Kidney

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Jun 29, 2009
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You’re using old contracts to justify a new deal.

The cap went up by two million from 2015-16 to 2016-17 when Pasta signed his deal.

The cap is potentially going up by seven million dollars.

And you're using a UFA deal of a proven player to justify Guentzel getting $7+ million per year. What about Josh Bailey, on the heels of a 70 point season, getting $5 million per year, if we're going to compare him to recently signed UFAs?

All Guentzel's comparables are making less than $7 million per year. Just because the cap is going up doesn't mean his contract should be inflated by $1.5 to $2 million more than what he would have gotten if he signed it last year or the year prior. That's not how salary inflation works with a rising cap.
 

Gurglesons

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And you're using a UFA deal of a proven player to justify Guentzel getting $7+ million per year. What about Josh Bailey, on the heels of a 70 point season, getting $5 million per year, if we're going to compare him to recently signed UFAs?

All Guentzel's comparables are making less than $7 million per year. Just because the cap is going up doesn't mean his contract should be inflated by $1.5 to $2 million more than what he would have gotten if he signed it last year or the year prior. That's not how salary inflation works with a rising cap.

Maybe I am mistaken, but Pasta’s contract is only RFA years right?
 

cheesedanish87

Registered User
Jun 27, 2012
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Pittsburgh
If this thread happened at the end of the regular season i bet the majority opinion of Jake's contract would of been 3 or 4 million per year.

I didn't think he was awful in the regular season, but it wasn't a good regular season for him at least based on my expectations for him.
 

Pengu

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Jun 24, 2016
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What really helps is that alot of the decisionmaking as to what players get paid is to what they do in the regular season.
If Arvidsson gets 4*7 I seee no reason why jake should be paid higher. Arvidsson outproduces Jake in regular season stats.
Just cause Jake has a great playoffs doesn't make him worth so much more. The regular season is 70-80 games and the playoffs is 10-20 games. Way smaller sample size.
 

Gurglesons

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Dec 18, 2009
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What really helps is that alot of the decisionmaking as to what players get paid is to what they do in the regular season.
If Arvidsson gets 4*7 I seee no reason why jake should be paid higher. Arvidsson outproduces Jake in regular season stats.
Just cause Jake has a great playoffs doesn't make him worth so much more. The regular season is 70-80 games and the playoffs is 10-20 games. Way smaller sample size.

If you think Jake is signing for anything below 6 you are smoking crack.
 

Pengu

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Jun 24, 2016
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Ok. which player in the NHL has EVER been awarded 6 million+/year when getting 48 pts in 82 games in the regular season?

And don't even try something as players ALWAYS so far gets awarded their contract based on the regular season.
 

Gurglesons

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Dec 18, 2009
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Ok. which player in the NHL has EVER been awarded 6 million+/year when getting 48 pts in 82 games in the regular season?

And don't even try something as players ALWAYS so far gets awarded their contract based on the regular season.

Evander Kane just got paid 7x7 and averages around 40 pts a season. He was a UFA though.

I could see a bridge deal with a lower cost, but if we go long term with Jake. The starting point is Pasta with likely a 500K increase due to the cap rising.
 

Andy99

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Jun 26, 2017
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Evander Kane just got paid 7x7 and averages around 40 pts a season. He was a UFA though.

I could see a bridge deal with a lower cost, but if we go long term with Jake. The starting point is Pasta with likely a 500K increase due to the cap rising.

lol...I know people here love to overvalue the Pens' players, but Jake (and I love him) is not in Pastrnak's league...he does not create or have a shot like him and has not put up as many points....what he does well is find ways of getting open in the tough areas around the net...take guts, hockey IQ but he's not as skilled or as much of a playmaker...if someone told you the B's were going to trade Pasta one for one for Jake, you'd probably jump up and down....
 

Gurglesons

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Dec 18, 2009
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San Diego, CA
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lol...I know people here love to overvalue the Pens' players, but Jake (and I love him) is not in Pastrnak's league...he does not create or have a shot like him and has not put up as many points....what he does well is find ways of getting open in the tough areas around the net...take guts, hockey IQ but he's not as skilled or as much of a playmaker...if someone told you the B's were going to trade Pasta one for one for Jake, you'd probably jump up and down....

Disagree 100%.

With 1st powerplay time I think Jake could easily hit 70.
 

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