Jake's next contract

Discussion in 'Pittsburgh Penguins' started by exHornet, Apr 27, 2018.

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  1. Peat

    Peat Registered User

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    Could you point to all these small players who've dropped off after a few minor injuries added up in the modern NHL? Because I'm struggling to think of them.

    And if you're right, I'm struggling to see how the risk is any significantly less after 3 years as a pro than it is after 2.
     
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  2. Crosbyfan

    Crosbyfan Registered User

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    Sorry, I'm not going to provide a list, but we have the option with Jake to take a look at that third year and see how he does. At that point if he has not been signed he's an RFA and still an asset. We don't need to buy at a possible peak after a very nice playoffs. He can't sell his services to any other NHL Team at this point, and can't for a while. Overpaying because he might do even better and thus possibly getting a deal is not good cap management IMO. Short of Jake initiating a bargain deal I think it is best to wait until at least mid season and see how he does in whatever roles he has been put in.
     
  3. cheesedanish87

    cheesedanish87 Registered User

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    Arvidsson would be a good comparable IMO.

    Arvidsson has better regular season numbers, but Jake has better playoff numbers.

    He signed a 7 year contract at 4.25 million.

    Nashville has less taxes so maybe you have to give Jake 4.5 million to make up for the tax difference.
     
  4. Peat

    Peat Registered User

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    That's really generous of him, because there's plenty of guys with the same numbers making more. It'd be nice if Guentzel followed the same path but I'm not holding my breath.

    I think you're underestimating what point scoring RFA forwards make. 5m isn't an overpayment.
     
  5. Clare2904

    Clare2904 My babes!

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    Why should Pittsburgh have to make up any tax difference when the cost of living is lower than other major NHL cities.
     
  6. Crosbyfan

    Crosbyfan Registered User

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    Possibly. But Jake is not an RFA yet, and his points have come while playing on one of the highest scoring Teams. I would wait and see unless he is looking for less.
     
  7. Ryder71

    Ryder71 Registered User

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    That sounds about right to me as well. His playoff performances have been remarkable. Before this years playoffs I was thinking four million per, but now five seems far more likely.
     
  8. Sidney the Kidney

    Sidney the Kidney 3-Peat + 1

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    I think Jake and his camp would probably prefer a 5 year deal over a 7 or 8, simply because it gives him a chance to hit free agency right when he's still in his prime and can really make bank at that point.
     
  9. cygnus47

    cygnus47 Registered User

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    Especially since Sid and Geno will likely be dropping off even in the playoffs by then. We might not be competing for cups anymore and he'd be ready for a huge pay day from someone ready to compete for the rest of his career.
     
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  10. EightyOne

    EightyOne Registered User

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    I disagree with everything you wrote.

    It's 50/50. One of our opinions is gonna end up being very wrong.
     
  11. Crosbyfan

    Crosbyfan Registered User

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    Half of it is obviously my opinion. Half of it I presented as facts. If you disagree with all of it one of us is very misinformed with regard to the facts.
    I have no idea what your opinion or position is. From what I can tell this is your first post in the thread.
    The opposite of what I said (the opinion part) might be offer Jake the maximum immediately or whatever it takes...but how much is that...and for how long? Or it could be trade him...or fire him into the Sun...
     
  12. pixiesfanyo

    pixiesfanyo Registered User

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    @Sidney the Kidney still think Jake is making under 7 if he signs long term with that Kane deal?

    In a world where McDavid and Drai get 12, Eichel gets 10+, secondary top six wingers are swinging right in that 6.5-7 mil range.
     
  13. Pens x

    Pens x Registered User

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    I’d be shocked if he took less than $5.5 mill aav.
     
  14. Sidney the Kidney

    Sidney the Kidney 3-Peat + 1

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    The Kane deal has zero impact on Guentzel because one is UFA and holds all the control, while the other is RFA and is still property of the Pens.

    I'll say it again, I'll be surprised if Guentzel gets more than the Ehlers/Pastrnak range. I know he's coming off two straight strong playoffs, but regular season is also factored in and thus far he's got a career high 48 points. I'd be shocked if that's enough to land him $7+ million.

    Btw, Draisaitl will make $8.5 million. Not sure where you got $12 million.
     
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  15. Empoleon8771

    Empoleon8771 Kunitz Was There

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    Guentzel just doesn't have the resume that stacks up with guys who got huge contracts as RFAs. People are really overestimating the impact that having 2 good runs is going to have, Guentzel doesn't have the sustained regular season numbers to go over $6 million. If Guentzel puts up a near PPG season next year (so 60+ points), then he'll be in the Pastrnak or Scheifele range of money. If he's signed before the season, he just doesn't have the resume to get that.
     
  16. pixiesfanyo

    pixiesfanyo Registered User

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    You’re using old contracts to justify a new deal.

    The cap went up by two million from 2015-16 to 2016-17 when Pasta signed his deal.

    The cap is potentially going up by seven million dollars.
     
  17. Sidney the Kidney

    Sidney the Kidney 3-Peat + 1

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    And you're using a UFA deal of a proven player to justify Guentzel getting $7+ million per year. What about Josh Bailey, on the heels of a 70 point season, getting $5 million per year, if we're going to compare him to recently signed UFAs?

    All Guentzel's comparables are making less than $7 million per year. Just because the cap is going up doesn't mean his contract should be inflated by $1.5 to $2 million more than what he would have gotten if he signed it last year or the year prior. That's not how salary inflation works with a rising cap.
     
  18. pixiesfanyo

    pixiesfanyo Registered User

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    Maybe I am mistaken, but Pasta’s contract is only RFA years right?
     
  19. cheesedanish87

    cheesedanish87 Registered User

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    If this thread happened at the end of the regular season i bet the majority opinion of Jake's contract would of been 3 or 4 million per year.

    I didn't think he was awful in the regular season, but it wasn't a good regular season for him at least based on my expectations for him.
     
  20. Pengu

    Pengu Registered User

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    What really helps is that alot of the decisionmaking as to what players get paid is to what they do in the regular season.
    If Arvidsson gets 4*7 I seee no reason why jake should be paid higher. Arvidsson outproduces Jake in regular season stats.
    Just cause Jake has a great playoffs doesn't make him worth so much more. The regular season is 70-80 games and the playoffs is 10-20 games. Way smaller sample size.
     
  21. pixiesfanyo

    pixiesfanyo Registered User

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    If you think Jake is signing for anything below 6 you are smoking crack.
     
  22. Pengu

    Pengu Registered User

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    Ok. which player in the NHL has EVER been awarded 6 million+/year when getting 48 pts in 82 games in the regular season?

    And don't even try something as players ALWAYS so far gets awarded their contract based on the regular season.
     
  23. pixiesfanyo

    pixiesfanyo Registered User

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    Evander Kane just got paid 7x7 and averages around 40 pts a season. He was a UFA though.

    I could see a bridge deal with a lower cost, but if we go long term with Jake. The starting point is Pasta with likely a 500K increase due to the cap rising.
     
  24. Andy99

    Andy99 Registered User

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    lol...I know people here love to overvalue the Pens' players, but Jake (and I love him) is not in Pastrnak's league...he does not create or have a shot like him and has not put up as many points....what he does well is find ways of getting open in the tough areas around the net...take guts, hockey IQ but he's not as skilled or as much of a playmaker...if someone told you the B's were going to trade Pasta one for one for Jake, you'd probably jump up and down....
     
  25. pixiesfanyo

    pixiesfanyo Registered User

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    Disagree 100%.

    With 1st powerplay time I think Jake could easily hit 70.
     

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