Jake's next contract

[Gurglesons]

I will be extremely surprised if Jake makes under 6 and would expect him to go above 7.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I will be extremely surprised if Jake makes under 6 and would expect him to go above 7.

Comparables (based on age):
Gaudreau - $6.75 million
Pastrnak - $6.67 million
Monahan - $6.375 million
MacKinnon - $6.3 million
Scheifele - $6.125 million
Forsberg - $6 million
Ehlers - $6 million
Barkov - $5.9 million
Drouin - $5.5 million

There is zero evidence to suggest Guentzel should get above $7 million. The guys who signed most recently (Pastrnak, Ehlers) are in the $6 to $6.67 million range, and both have more of a regular season resume.

 

[Gurglesons]

Comparables (based on age):
Gaudreau - $6.75 million
Pastrnak - $6.67 million
Monahan - $6.375 million
MacKinnon - $6.3 million
Scheifele - $6.125 million
Forsberg - $6 million
Ehlers - $6 million
Barkov - $5.9 million
Drouin - $5.5 million

There is zero evidence to suggest Guentzel should get above $7 million. The guys who signed most recently (Pastrnak, Ehlers) are in the $6 to $6.67 million range, and both have more of a regular season resume.

Cap could potentially go up by 7 million.

This is Justin Schultz all over again, people on here thought he wouldn’t get over 5.

No chance Jake gets under 6 even on a short term deal.

Another long playoffs with his current production and another good year next year and he is setting himself up to get paid.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Cap could potentially go up by 7 million.

This is Justin Schultz all over again. No chance Jake gets under 6 even on a short term deal.

Another long playoffs with his current production and another good year next year and he is setting himself up to get paid.

Schultz was ready to be a UFA if the Pens didn't pony up. Guentzel's still a RFA for a couple of years, so he's got less bargaining position.

Those guys are comparables. Take a guy like Ehlers. Even if you factored in the Cap going up, you're looking at his salary range anyway due to Ehlers being more proven over multiple seasons.

I won't be surprised if he gets slightly over $6 million per year. But I disagree 100% with your comment about him likely getting above $7. There's literally no precedent for that for a player with Jake's resume.

 

[Gurglesons]

Schultz was ready to be a UFA if the Pens didn't pony up. Guentzel's still a RFA for a couple of years, so he's got less bargaining position.

Those guys are comparables. Take a guy like Ehlers. Even if you factored in the Cap going up, you're looking at his salary range anyway due to Ehlers being more proven over multiple seasons.

I won't be surprised if he gets slightly over $6 million per year. But I disagree 100% with your comment about him likely getting above $7. There's literally no precedent for that for a player with Jake's resume.

What other player on your list had just set a rookie playoff goal scoring record on a cup winner and then put up better playoff numbers the next year?

And Jake could easily have a monster regular season next year if he is with Crosby.

If he puts up 60-70 next year what is preventing him for asking for Drai money?

Schultz had one year left as an RFA also right?

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

What other player on your list had just set a rookie playoff goal scoring record on a cup winner and then put up better playoff numbers the next year?

And Jake could easily have a monster regular season next year if he is with Crosby.

If he puts up 60-70 next year what is preventing him for asking for Drai money?

I'm assuming they'll ink him to a deal as soon as they're legally allowed to, which would be sometime this summer. That's how most teams approach "high end" RFAs whose ELCs are about to expire.

In any case, you're basing his entire contract on his playoff numbers. I'm saying I don't think teams do that. They'll take into account his regular season totals, too. And so far, Jake's got half a season and a full season of 48 points on his resume. His playoff production would probably just add another $500k to $750k to whatever he'd get based on his regular season production.

Schultz had one year left as an RFA also right?

One year left of RFA, you're right. But the contract is eating up a couple of UFA years. Guentzel's deal will be about 2 or 3 years of RFA status.

And don't forget, Schultz at $5.5 million is the going rate for top four defensemen. It's not like the Pens overpaid him compared to other players similar to him. Whereas in your first post, you'd be paying Guentzel MORE than his comparables. Schultz's salary is right in line with his type of player.

 

[Gurglesons]

I guess we will see. I think Jake makes at least 6.5 mil. I was right about Schultz and Sheary last summer.

I’ll @Sidney the Kidney if I’m right

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

I guess we will see. I think Jake makes at least 6.5 mil. I was right about Schultz and Sheary last summer.

I’ll @Sidney the Kidney if I’m right

You're picking a salary that I even said I could see happening? How generous of you.

My issue was with the "above $7 million" comment. That's the one where I said there's no comparable of his that suggests he'd get that much.

 

[Gurglesons]

You're picking a salary that I even said I could see happening? How generous of you.

My issue was with the "above $7 million" comment. That's the one where I said there's no comparable of his that suggests he'd get that much.

If Jake signs for 6+ years with a large increase in salary I could see him pushing 7 mil.

We can see how it goes, I’m just saying I wouldn’t be surprised to see him break the bank if he waits to sign.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

If Jake signs for 6+ years with a large increase in salary I could see him pushing 7 mil.

We can see how it goes, I’m just saying I wouldn’t be surprised to see him break the bank if he waits to sign.

I think another key thing we have to keep in mind is the Sid/Geno "artificial cap". They've basically set the standard and no one is going to be making as much as them (or probably even close to them) while they're still on the team. Letang's the closest at just over $7 million, and he's considered the "franchise defenseman".

Jake would essentially have to turn into a Kucherov (ie. 85+ points every year) for him to earn what Letang does.

IMO, the Ehlers deal is what we'll see. Give or take $500k to account for the cap going up or number of years being longer/shorter than Ehlers.

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I'd be happy with that Drouin money for him.

 

[madinsomniac]

The good news is it will be less than a billion dollars

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

All of the money

 

[Don'tcry4mejanhrdina]

The good news is it will be less than a billion dollars

Only because of the cap. Guy deserves a billion with how good he is in the playoffs. Somebody give this man a billion dollars. Where's drunk Ed Belfour when you need him?

 

[Dangles78]

Lock him up. Kid is captain material and is clutch. You can tell he's absorbing every little thing Sid does on and off the ice.

Edit: I think 6 AAV is good

 

[edog37]

What are you talking about? Guentzel's a 30-40 point winger on any other team. Anyone can put up points with Crosby bouncing pucks in off his head while they just stand there doing nothing.

I tend to agree.

 

[Tom Hanks]

 

[Honour Over Glory]

I will be extremely surprised if Jake makes under 6 and would expect him to go above 7.

Depends on the year he has next season I think, if he cracks 50+, he's going for 5.5-6.5m.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Tyler Johnson deal probably out of reach now. 8yr 5mil

 

[Tender Rip]

Unless something really sweet is acceptable to Jake, I still don’t understand why anyone wants to go long.

Much better to get two more years where he can be an ace on much less than the salary he deserves. 21/22 is a loooong time from now.

 

[pokey10]

As I said in the other thread, they are going to offer him a bridge. Rarely have we seen them (in recent history) offer blockbuster contracts to kids that can still qualify as RFA's. Our two time SC winning goalie is making 3.7 . Expect Jake on 4 x 3.

 

[Peat]

I'm assuming they'll ink him to a deal as soon as they're legally allowed to, which would be sometime this summer. That's how most teams approach "high end" RFAs whose ELCs are about to expire.

In any case, you're basing his entire contract on his playoff numbers. I'm saying I don't think teams do that. They'll take into account his regular season totals, too. And so far, Jake's got half a season and a full season of 48 points on his resume. His playoff production would probably just add another $500k to $750k to whatever he'd get based on his regular season production.




One year left of RFA, you're right. But the contract is eating up a couple of UFA years. Guentzel's deal will be about 2 or 3 years of RFA status.

And don't forget, Schultz at $5.5 million is the going rate for top four defensemen. It's not like the Pens overpaid him compared to other players similar to him. Whereas in your first post, you'd be paying Guentzel MORE than his comparables. Schultz's salary is right in line with his type of player.

Aggregate the whole lot and he's on 123 points in 157 games. Dunno where that sits next to his comparables but that's the argument I'd be making if I was his agent.

I'm also telling him not to enter the negotiating room until the end of next season if they do want to base it mainly on the full season of 48 points. A 60 point season is not unrealistic and changes the maths a lot.



A bridge contract this summer to provide Guentzel with some stability while he establishes a concrete case for the size of contract he deserves while we get cheap scoring for that bit longer does seem to make a lot of sense.

 

[The Old Master]

I could see sid wanting to pay half of it

 

[The GM]

I’d be willing to overpay him if it meant we had to ship out Shari to cover the cap

 

[UnderratedBrooks44]

Anything below franchise player territory I think you have to be fine with. I mean, how many playoff goals does a guy gotta score to get paid? If he got $7 mil I would consider it the cost of doing business. I think $6-6.5 mil is right........on the money......though.