TSN: Jake Gardiner or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Advanced Stats

[Nithoniniel]

The Ducks announcers were praising Gardiner a lot yesterday. We're not the only ones who are impressed.

 

[champs*]

If you want to see what being sheltered looks like, look at a guy like, say, Subban.

D-Zone Start%

1.Emelin 35.9
2.Petry 35.4
3.Beaulieu 30.8
4.Markov 30.4
5.Gilbert 30.0
6.Subban 29.5

or Doughty

1.Martinez 35.1
2.Muzzin 33.1
3.Ehrhoff 28.4
4.Doughty 28.1
5.McNabb 27.4
6.McBain 26.1

where are these numbers coming from, does not seem correct? Doughty or suban would be close to 50% either way?

 

[champs*]

The Ducks announcers were praising Gardiner a lot yesterday. We're not the only ones who are impressed.

to make something better, sometimes you need to take away and not add to it ...

 

[zeke]

where are these numbers coming from, does not seem correct?

puckalytics.com

 

[91Kadri91*]

babcock also tries to keep Phaneuf out of the d-zone as much as possible. He has taken away as much defensive responsibly away from Phaneuf and gardner as possible.(mostly gardner, 100% no pk or last minute time) stats prove this to be true and easily seen in a game if you look for it.

70% of all shifts Gardner started last night against the ducks, was in the offensive zone.

And yet Gardiner has suppressed shots, goals, scoring chances and second chances better than anyone on the Leafs, while also providing the best lane defense. Statistics show that too and, unlike zone starts (which typically make a negligible difference, and certainly makes a negligible difference in this context), they're meaningful. Let's make one thing clear: this isn't a one year wonder. Gardiner's been one of the best even-strength defensemen in the National Hockey League since his rookie season, ranking top-25 in CFRel, FFRel, SFRel, SCFRel, EGFRel, GFRel, and HSCFRel. In fact, Gardiner's the only Leafs defenseman with a positive (cumulative) WAR since 2011/12 (WAR accounts for all situations). If that wasn't enough to convince you, then perhaps you should consider the fact that, among the ten players who have played with Gardiner most often since his rookie season, Luke Schenn is the only one who performs better away from Gardiner than with Gardiner (and that's probably because he was playing bottom pairing minutes on Philly). Just for good measure, Gardiner also leads the Leafs in even-strength TOI% since 2011/12. Oh, and he performs pretty well against top opposition.

At some point you've got to accept that Gardiner's a very good defenseman.

 

[champs*]

puckalytics.com

think you looked at wrong stat for suban and doughty, they have a 53% o-zone start.


last night game against the ducks:

phaneuf 14-5 <<<< o-zone starts
gardiner 12-5 <<<< o-zone starts

Hunwick 12 - 13 <<<< o-zone starts
reilly 12-10 <<<< o-zone starts

Marincin 5-4 <<<< o-zone starts
Polak 4-7 <<<< o-zone starts

 

[Nithoniniel]

think you looked at wrong stat for suban and doughty, they have a 53% o-zone start.


last night game against the ducks:

phaneuf 14-5 <<<< o-zone starts
gardiner 12-5 <<<< o-zone starts

Hunwick 12 - 13 <<<< o-zone starts
reilly 12-10 <<<< o-zone starts

Marincin 5-4 <<<< o-zone starts
Polak 4-7 <<<< o-zone starts

Looking at one night only tells you about what happened that night.

And yeah, they might have 53% offensive zone starts. Zeke posted defensive zone starts.

 

[Rayban*]

think you looked at wrong stat for suban and doughty, they have a 53% o-zone start.


last night game against the ducks:

phaneuf 14-5 <<<< o-zone starts
gardiner 12-5 <<<< o-zone starts

Hunwick 12 - 13 <<<< o-zone starts
reilly 12-10 <<<< o-zone starts

Marincin 5-4 <<<< o-zone starts
Polak 4-7 <<<< o-zone starts

He was quoting their D-zone starts...

 

[PuckMagi]

And yet Gardiner has suppressed shots, goals, scoring chances and second chances better than anyone on the Leafs, while also providing the best lane defense. Statistics show that too and, unlike zone starts (which typically make a negligible difference, and certainly makes a negligible difference in this context), they're meaningful. Let's make one thing clear: this isn't a one year wonder. Gardiner's been one of the best even-strength defensemen in the National Hockey League since his rookie season, ranking top-25 in CFRel, FFRel, SFRel, SCFRel, EGFRel, GFRel, and HSCFRel. In fact, Gardiner's the only Leafs defenseman with a positive (cumulative) WAR since 2011/12 (WAR accounts for all situations). If that wasn't enough to convince you, then perhaps you should consider the fact that, among the ten players who have played with Gardiner most often since his rookie season, Luke Schenn is the only one who performs better away from Gardiner than with Gardiner (and that's probably because he was playing bottom pairing minutes on Philly). Just for good measure, Gardiner also leads the Leafs in even-strength TOI% since 2011/12. Oh, and he performs pretty well against top opposition.

At some point you've got to accept that Gardiner's a very good defenseman.

Gardiner's been my favourite Leaf player for quite a while now (as you can see from my avatar). I've never supported trading him in any trade proposal. Even back when we first got him, I could tell that he was a special player who could do things that virtually no one else in the league could do. And I still think he's improving. He still makes mistakes occasionally... but his great plays far outnumber is bad plays... and with a good defensive partner in Phaneuf and a solid system where forwards will cover for a pinching D, Gardiner has done great! He's just so good at handling the puck and skating around players... I love watching him play.

 

[champs*]

And yet Gardiner has suppressed shots, goals, scoring chances and second chances better than anyone on the Leafs, while also providing the best lane defense. Statistics show that too and, unlike zone starts (which typically make a negligible difference, and certainly makes a negligible difference in this context), they're meaningful. Let's make one thing clear: this isn't a one year wonder. Gardiner's been one of the best even-strength defensemen in the National Hockey League since his rookie season, ranking top-25 in CFRel, FFRel, SFRel, SCFRel, EGFRel, GFRel, and HSCFRel. In fact, Gardiner's the only Leafs defenseman with a positive (cumulative) WAR since 2011/12 (WAR accounts for all situations). If that wasn't enough to convince you, then perhaps you should consider the fact that, among the ten players who have played with Gardiner most often since his rookie season, Luke Schenn is the only one who performs better away from Gardiner than with Gardiner (and that's probably because he was playing bottom pairing minutes on Philly). Just for good measure, Gardiner also leads the Leafs in even-strength TOI% since 2011/12. Oh, and he performs pretty well against top opposition.

At some point you've got to accept that Gardiner's a very good defenseman.

Gardner is a good player! I am just showing how he is being used and how babcock structures his defense.

1. We have sets of D-men and not really #1, 2, 3, 4 etc.
2. We have one power play d-man, Phaneuf

Phaneuf <<<<<< our #1 PP d-man and #4 PK guy
Gardner <<<<<< our #2 PP d-man

Gardiner and Phaneuf <<<<<< offensive set of d-men. Babcock tries to start these two in the o-zone as often as possible.

Reilly and Hunwick <<<<<< defensive set of d-men. Babcock tries to start these two in the d-zone as often as possible.

Polak <<<<<< defensive used with #6 d-man and Phaneuf on PK, end game.

 

[champs*]

Looking at one night only tells you about what happened that night.

And yeah, they might have 53% offensive zone starts. Zeke posted defensive zone starts.

unless the game gets a little messed up, that is how it usually is. zeke made a mistake.

 

[Nithoniniel]

unless the game gets a little messed up, that is how it usually is.

No it's not. What you say is factually wrong. We have the numbers for the entire season, and they are nothing like tonight.

Gardiner starts in the offensive zone a whole 1.1% more than the defensive zone over the course of the season.

34.2% Offensive zone
32.7% Neutral zone
33.1% Defensive zone

 

[zeke]

i'm pretty sure you are including special teams.

 

[champs*]

No it's not. What you say is factually wrong. We have the numbers for the entire season, and they are nothing like tonight.

Gardiner starts in the offensive zone a whole 1.1% more than the defensive zone over the course of the season.

babcock now is settled in on how he plays these guys, early on he was finding what he has here.

 

[X66]

Don't need advanced stats to know Gardiner has played excellent. Watching him shows it as well.

 

[champs*]

No it's not. What you say is factually wrong. We have the numbers for the entire season, and they are nothing like tonight.

Gardiner starts in the offensive zone a whole 1.1% more than the defensive zone over the course of the season.

34.2% Offensive zone
32.7% Neutral zone
33.1% Defensive zone

i posted his stats from last nights game

phaneuf 14-5 <<<< o-zone starts d-zone starts
gardiner 12-5 <<<< o-zone starts d-zone starts

 

[zeke]

5v5 zone starts

Gardiner 220off, 204neut, 208def
Phaneuf 240off, 221neut, 233def

 

[champs*]

5v5 zone starts

Gardiner 220off, 204neut, 208def
Phaneuf 240off, 221neut, 233def

the leafs have been playing pretty good hockey the last little while?

 

[Nithoniniel]

I imagine this is how I'd feel if I tried to have an in-depth online conversation with my brother, only to realize after confusion, frustration and failed persuasions that it's actually my 5-year old nephew on the other side.

 

[champs*]

I imagine this is how I'd feel if I tried to have an in-depth online conversation with my brother, only to realize after confusion, frustration and failed persuasions that it's actually my 5-year old nephew on the other side.

New coach, 30 games into the season, he now knows his players and how to use them forget about the stats from the first 15-20 games.

watch the game tonight and you will see this is how the d-men are used

Phaneuf <<<<<< our #1 PP d-man and #4 PK guy (used as the swing man)
Gardner <<<<<< our #2 PP d-man and no PK

Gardiner and Phaneuf <<<<<< offensive set of d-men. Babcock tries to start these two in the o-zone as often as possible.

Reilly and Hunwick <<<<<< defensive set of d-men. Babcock tries to start these two in the d-zone as often as possible.

Polak <<<<<< defensive used with #6 d-man and Phaneuf on PK, end game.


i like Gardner... not a hater

 

[zeke]

Season

Phaneuf 240off, 221neut, 233def - 33.6dzs%
Gardiner 220off, 204neut, 208def - 32.9dzs%


last 10gms:

Phaneuf: 77off, 58neut, 64def - 32.2dzs%
Gardiner: 76off, 57neut, 63def - 32.1dzs%

last 5gms

Phaneuf 37off, 19neut, 25def -- 30.9dzs%
Gardiner 37off, 19neut, 26def -- 31.7dzs%

last 3gms

Phaneuf 20off, 10neut, 18def - 37.5dzs%
Gardiner 20off, 10neut, 17def - 36.1dzs%

 

[HellasLEAF]

Don't need advanced stats to know Gardiner has played excellent. Watching him shows it as well.

this. Gards is dripping with confidence. Pretty much does what he wants out there. Skating, exits and decision making all top notch

 

[HellasLEAF]

Keep calm and don't trade Jake Gardiner!

 

[Pi]

Gardiner and Rielly are one of the reasons why I hate media and fan perception of the Leafs.

No matter how good they play...because they play for the Leafs and are on TV so frequently they will never be the "underrated" player in the league. Everyone thinks we just have **** players.

I'd take Gardiner over a ton of players that many of the media perceive to be better than him. The guy has been nothing but brilliant under very bad situations.

I can't wait to see Gardiner as our team gets better and better. He's not a guy I would trade+ for Duchene like half this board wanted to do when rumors were circling around him. It's hard to find puck moving defenseman that play like Gardiner...we trade him and all we have is Rielly. That's it.

 

[champs*]

Season

Phaneuf 240off, 221neut, 233def - 33.6dzs%
Gardiner 220off, 204neut, 208def - 32.9dzs%


last 10gms:

Phaneuf: 77off, 58neut, 64def - 32.2dzs%
Gardiner: 76off, 57neut, 63def - 32.1dzs%

last 5gms

Phaneuf 37off, 19neut, 25def -- 30.9dzs%
Gardiner 37off, 19neut, 26def -- 31.7dzs%

last 3gms

Phaneuf 20off, 10neut, 18def - 37.5dzs%
Gardiner 20off, 10neut, 17def - 36.1dzs%

dzs% <<<< does this stand for "defensive zone starts percentage"