Prospect Info: Ives Final 2020 Draft Rankings -- Top 100
- Thread starter StevenToddIves
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- Dec 20, 2018
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That would be amazing and Ottawa would not do that because the perceived value is way in the Devils favor. The values are not exact, in part because people can only trade the picks they actually have and presumably one team is more interested in making a trade happen. That said, we would likely only get 28 and one 2nd, there’s never been a comparable return as good as 1st and 2 2nds ever in a similar swap. NJ can add Cane’s 3rd adds to value (but it won’t get another 2nd lol).
The Athletic has a good article about the different studies of the value of NHL draft picks. I’ve included a chart for draft pick values from the articles from one of the models for non-subscribers because I fight for the users.
By the numbers: Revisiting the true value of a draft pick
nugg
NJ Hammerhead Bats!
Might be able to get Robins, Vierling and Faber with those three.
nugg
NJ Hammerhead Bats!
Yes, just realized the lopsidedness of that trade. Still might be able to get Robins at the 28th, Vierling at the one extra 2nd picked up, then Faber with the third from Carolina.
I will get what I want! We don't care about reality here!
- Dec 20, 2018
- 21,772
- 46,980
To give two examples using the chart:
St Louis
2018 1st #25 (Dominik Bonk) {3.4}
acquired from
Toronto
2018 1st #29 (Rasmus Sandin) {2.9}
2018 3rd #76 (Semyon Der-Arguchintsev) {.8}
NY Rangers
2018 1st #22 (K’Andre Miller) {3.7}
acquired from
Ottawa
2018 1st #26 (Jacob Bernard-Docker) {3.3}
2018 2nd #48 (Jonathan Tychonick) {1.7}
In both of these the team that wanted to trade up obviously has put more value up to make it happen. That said, the first deal is closer in value and only getting a third in this sort of thing always seems pretty blah. I guess St Louis wasn’t giving up their 2nd (45) obviously and Toronto went for it.
In the case of the Rangers, they had 26, 28, 39 and 48, and you can see what Ottawa got out of them (26, 48) for 22. So good job Dorion.
(I would point out that the Sens sent the Rags their 2018 2nd in the Zibanejad who then traded it to Detroit for Brendan Smith which leads me to believe that pick is cursed - I will never trust Jonatan Berggren because of this. This isn’t completely related but I wanted to get it off my chest.)
I think there is definitely a drop off at 20-22, so no matter who we pick, I’ll be happy. Admittedly, I would prefer forwards over anyone but Drysdale/Sanderson.
at this point I just want the draft to be here!
also Sebrango from Kitchener is great, I could see him in the 3rd. I think he’s better then Vukojevic and when he adds man strength he will have more beef behind his physical game. Great shot when he uses, skates very well and makes a great pass up the ice.
at this point I just want the draft to be here!
also Sebrango from Kitchener is great, I could see him in the 3rd. I think he’s better then Vukojevic and when he adds man strength he will have more beef behind his physical game. Great shot when he uses, skates very well and makes a great pass up the ice.
I'm a big Sebrango booster. I'm probably the only guy around who ranked him at LD over Andrae, Poirier, Cormier, Mukhamadullin and Wallinder -- but I think Sebrango is a safe pick with the upside as a very good mid-pairing, two-way defender. Whereas Poirier and Mukhamadullin have top-pairing upside, they also come with a lot of risk. Andrae and Cormier have mid-pairing upside and significant risk, while the Wallinder thing is not something I feel like getting into right now, though I think if a lot of things go right he can make it as a third-pairing guy in the NHL.
With Sebrango, you get a kid who does a lot of things well and, though he lacks a singular dynamic tool, he also lacks any glaring weakness. He has size and intelligence, he skates well and handles the puck well, he defends well and can play the physical game. I blame his too-low consensus rankings on the fact that modern draft-writers often have the convoluted idea that a kid with 40-point potential who is a defensive liability is somehow a better prospect than a kid with 30-point potential who is good in all aspects of the game.
Because I think NHL front offices highly value this type of reliable, all-around defenseman, Sebrango is not likely to last until the third round. In my mock draft, I had him going #56 overall to Montreal, but I must say I considered him with a few picks as early as the 40s.
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I would consider 28 and 52 or 59 for 20, maybe even for 18. depending on the option available at 18. at 20 i don't think, there will be any must gets, which might also be available at 28 or a comparable player. the second rounder would be of good use to add a D prospect at a more fitting spot.
beekay414
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The trade talk is fun, but there is a good chance that the Devils will set up to the (virtual) podium with players they really like still on the board at #7, #18 and #20. It's tough to look for a trade when you still have no idea how the actual draft is going to shake out.
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Not top 10, but I think Nashville pick 11 is a strong possibilty.
If we do trade up to Pick 11, it is probably to draft Askarov, if he is still available at that selection.
No, and our recent history doesn't suggest that we would have interest in moving up
beekay414
#FireEveryone
How do you feel about what our friend over on HF posted as a possible motive to move up? Taking on Russell to jump from 20 to 14. I don't like the framework of what he offered but I like the idea.
I've brought it up here a time or two. I'd definitely be interested in getting to 14, and it makes sense, but I just don't know if it's something we would do where we are including more than taking back the cap dump. I don't know if we would throw them a pick or Mikey, let alone both (even if Mikey has no value)
If we did, I kind of have to wonder if it would be for askarov lol
beekay414
#FireEveryone
I don't think Askarov makes it to 14 but I would definitely do 20 and Mikey for 14 and Russell, especially if it gives us the chance to land Jarvis. Russell also helps us fill a need and, as you said on FF, lets us move on from Mueller while giving Ty Smith a veteran partner with a rep of being helpful to youth. LIS over there, though, I'm not adding that Carolina 3rd to it. No interest in waiting over 80 picks to select again and losing a shot at a decent dman prospect in the process.
Umm... CapFriendly has him with a NMC. Not sure if it's modified or not, but it may mean we're required to protect him in the expansion draft. Or does it not matter if his contract is up after this year?
This is all so confusing.
-edit-
Interesting. Looks like he's only being paid 2.5M in real money. Maybe less because 1M is in signing bonuses, which may have been paid by Edmonton already.
beekay414
#FireEveryone
He has a 10 team modified no-trade list. Who knows if we're on it or not but he knows he isn't going to be playing in Edmonton so he could always waive it.
EDIT - Yes, he's only owed $1.5 Million in real money. I believe his bonus was paid.
Askarov's draft position is really fun to try to figure out, right? I mean, I think he could go as high as #8 to Buffalo -- I would not be surprised at all to see that. Minnesota at #9 is a possibility, but I would call it a long shot. No way Winnipeg takes him at #10, but then Nashville is a very strong option at #11.
We have to keep in mind what a gutsy call it is for a GM to pick a goaltender so high in the draft these days. There will certainly be a lot of scrutiny associated with the pick. Personally, I'd be fine with Ottawa taking him at #5 (they won't, he's Russian, but it's a hypothetical) because Askarov is just that highly regarded and the Senators have 3 first-round picks and a serious need in net.
One week until the draft, folks! If anyone wants me to give them a write up of any 2020 draft-eligibles, just let me know on this thread.
beekay414
#FireEveryone
I apologize if you did one already on any of these guys in advance. You don't have to address all of them in detail whatsoever, just whatever you want to do. Brief blurbs, at best, is all I expect. Thanks.
Blake Biondi
Charlie Desroches
Elliot Ekmark
Alex Gaffney
Cross Hanas
Bear Hughes
Alex Jefferies
Ben King
Leo Loof
Oh geez, you're not messing around.
Well, I'm rooting on my Yankees right now, so give me some time. If it helps, I wrote up Cross Hanas already, but will be glad to go more in depth. He's certainly a kid I like.
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