beekay414
#FireEveryone
Whenever you got time, my friend. I'm a patient soul. I'll search for the Hanas write up, don't you worry about that.
Prospect Info: Ives Final 2020 Draft Rankings -- Top 100
- Thread starter StevenToddIves
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Another sleeper I've been intrigued by is Dmitri Ovchinnikov.
Big year in the MHL last year with 24g and 55p in 54 games and has put up 3g and 7p in 3 games this year and has been bumped up to the KHL I believe.
@StevenToddIves not sure if I've seen you comment on him yet, what're your thoughts?
Big year in the MHL last year with 24g and 55p in 54 games and has put up 3g and 7p in 3 games this year and has been bumped up to the KHL I believe.
@StevenToddIves not sure if I've seen you comment on him yet, what're your thoughts?
LW/C Dmitri Ovchinnikov, Novosibirsk MHL
Ovchinnikov is actually a very good comparable to one of my favorite sleepers, Belarussian LW Evgeni Oksentyuk. They are both extremely skilled but very small LWs with good but not great skating. In fact, I would rate Ovchinnikov's skating as slightly better, and Ovchinnikov is about a year and a half younger -- yet I ranked Oksentyuk #58 overall while Ovchinnikov was left off my top 100 rankings altogether (I'd probably rank Ovchinnikov in the #110-#115 range). Why?
As these players are similarly talented, similarly sized and play the same position it's a very interesting question. But before getting into the reasons people are skeptical of Ovchinnikov, lets' talk about what makes him so good. He is a dual threat winger with the versatility to play center, although his offensive gains in such a switch are tempered by defensive shortcomings, so that his future is likely on the wing. But his offensive skill-set is also pleasingly versatile -- he can do it all with the puck on his stick. Ovchinnikov's combination of hands, anticipation and lightning-quick recognition of what the defense is giving him makes him almost surgical in his ability to pick apart opposition which plays him too soft. This is where the dual-threat ability makes him more effective -- he's very unpredictable about when he will pass or shoot, and he is clearly a plus talent in both tools. Ovchinnikov is just a weapon out there.
These are all qualities shared by Oksentyuk, and why they're both on the NHL Draft radar. The difference -- and where I rank Oksentyuk higher -- come down to 200-foot awareness, general hockey IQ and compete level. First off, I'd like to stress that none of these are necessarily weaknesses for Ovchinnikov, they're just in the "pretty good" range while they are all incredible strengths for Oksentyuk. Both of these players are so creative with the puck that they will occasionally send a bad turnover to the opposition when trying to do too much. This is not a red flag -- many young offensive talents are guilty of this and it's something which diminishes naturally with coaching and development. The difference is that Oksentyuk knows to play a bit more conservative in close & late situations, while Ovchinnikov is always hoping for the flashy highlight play, and once a mistake is made Oksentyuk is a fierce back checker while Ovchinnikov is a far lesser player when his team does not possess the puck.
Oksentyuk has a motor which never stops -- he's a whirling dervish out there. Ovchinnikov likes to dissolve and reappear in the soft areas where he can create scoring opportunities. While this is the nature of his game and I would not try to temper it too much, Oksentyuk's motor and 2-way effort give him the opportunity to make the NHL in a bottom-6 role if he never develops into a top scorer. For Ovchinnikov, it's NHL top-6 or bust. It's very difficult for a small forward lacking dazzling skating to survive against NHL defensemen, so you like a kid who offers a bit more line-up versatility.
But again, Ovchinnikov certainly has the requisite skill to turn your 4th-round pick into a future NHL scorer, so in that sense he's a very intriguing mid-round draft candidate. And again, while Ovchinnikov lacks the high-end IQ and compete of an Oksentyuk, he is not bad in either respect. I'll offer another comparison with another similarly talented small winger in Zion Nybeck.
I would rank Nybeck's combination of hands/creativity/vision maybe a tick above Ovchinnikov and Oksentyuk, though I would rank his skating as a notch behind. Nybeck is just extraordinarily talented with the puck -- I'd go so far to say he has first-round skills. But the reason I rank him out of my top 100 (and he's far, far below that) is that his compete level is negligible at best, and he might be as soft as any forward in the 2020 draft. He'd rather gift-wrap the puck than take a hit, and turnovers are not followed by any effort on the back check This is why I would rank the similarly but slightly-lesser skilled Ovchinnikov above him.
Again, it's extremely difficult to make the NHL when you're an undersized, offensive winger without elite skating. So, you need every other tool at full-throttle in order to make it. While Ovchinnikov is certainly a player who has a a chance of becoming an impact NHL offensive player, there is certainly risk there, too. But still, his potential makes him a very nice pick in the mid to late rounds.
C Ben King, Swift Current WHL
I'm writing up King first, because he's a very simple and very nice player. You're talking about the classic Western Canadian pivot -- good size, good physicality, good character and work ethic, good two-way game. Skates okay, shoots okay and okay with the puck. Plays north/south and simple, get the puck deep and cycle it. Get the puck out of your own zone and transition it.
Ben King is probably the opposite of a high-risk/high-reward pick. He's the guy you take in the 4th round to be a future bottom six center, and then four years later he's a bottom 6 center on your NHL club. There's really nothing not to like about a player like King, he's got heart and stands up for his smaller line-mates, and his chances of making the big show are as good as anyone you'll see taken after the 3rd round.
RD Charlie DesRoches, Saint John QMJHL
It's important to start any write-up of DesRoches by mentioning that yes, he is a talented offensive blue liner. He's an excellent passer, a strong puck handler and a tremendous shooter, especially when you take into consideration his slight frame at 5'10-170. When he has the puck, he's a good hockey player.
The problem you face with a player like DesRoches is that he has problems attaining the puck in order to display his considerable skills with it. He's an average skater, maybe a tick above-average, but he's not winning many puck races. He is certainly challenged in terms of physical strength, so he's not winning many board battles. And although I'd call him a smart player, he's not advanced enough in terms of gap control or positioning or anticipation to be picking off pucks you would not expect him to.
Ultimately, with DesRoches we have a player who we hope can develop enough in the next few years to become a Will Butcher-type, which is to say a cerebral, offensive third-pairing players whose minutes you need to monitor. He's the type of player I could see going in the 5th-7th rounds to a team with a lot of weight given to the analytics department, but he's not necessarily a player I would target for the Devils in the 2020 draft, especially with a far stronger defensive class on the way for the 2021 draft.
LW/C Elliot Ekmark, Linkoping SWE JR
I'm actually glad @TheGooseIsLoose brought this kid up, because Ekmark is a very likable player. He's small but incredibly quick, and he has a good deal of skill. I'd say his upside is as a second-line scorer, he's not really elite in any offensive facet, but he's a heads-up player with a great motor. What I really like about Ekmark is he plays with a lack of fear and a whole lot of hustle and heart, so we're talking about a guy who could make the big show in a checking line role if he does not achieve his ultimate upside. Ekmark is not afraid to throw the body on players twice his size, and he's a fearless and relentless forechecker.
Though Ekmark is not a player I would target in the 3rd or 4th round based on the Devils' particular current needs, he is certainly a player who would interest me if he fell to the later rounds, which I would have to say is a distinct possibility. Just a nice hustle & heart forward with a nice amount of skill thrown in.
I'm actually glad @TheGooseIsLoose brought this kid up, because Ekmark is a very likable player. He's small but incredibly quick, and he has a good deal of skill. I'd say his upside is as a second-line scorer, he's not really elite in any offensive facet, but he's a heads-up player with a great motor. What I really like about Ekmark is he plays with a lack of fear and a whole lot of hustle and heart, so we're talking about a guy who could make the big show in a checking line role if he does not achieve his ultimate upside. Ekmark is not afraid to throw the body on players twice his size, and he's a fearless and relentless forechecker.
Though Ekmark is not a player I would target in the 3rd or 4th round based on the Devils' particular current needs, he is certainly a player who would interest me if he fell to the later rounds, which I would have to say is a distinct possibility. Just a nice hustle & heart forward with a nice amount of skill thrown in.
beekay414
#FireEveryone
Who is the late round prospect that most reminds you of Bratt this season? We all know that is who NJ will select in the sixth round.
@StevenToddIves
How do you like over agers? I'm pretty curious about Axel Rindell as a late round flier.
How do you like over agers? I'm pretty curious about Axel Rindell as a late round flier.
My #1 "Jesper Bratt" of 2020 would have to be Veeti Miettinen, who has a ton of talent and seems to have completely slipped through the cracks of draft-watchers everywhere. I'd love to hear @thethinglonger 's take on this, since he's really good with the Finland prospects, but I think he would agree.
Miettinen has a very common combination which causes many scouts to look away, which is to say he's like 5'8-150 and is a good but not great skater. Many people just turn off a prospect if they're small and lack lightning speed, it's proven and re-proven every draft year. But Miettinen just has so much to offer with the rest of his game.
I would call everything about his shot "special". He possesses an incredibly quick release, while at the same time being able to disguise his release point. He's constantly catching goalies off-guard, and when you watch him you're like: "how did they not know he was going to shoot? he loves to shoot!" but then you see the replay and just realize that Miettinen is so, so good at getting that shot off. His velocity would be very good for a 6'0 winger, much less a 5'8 one, and his accuracy is just tremendous, even when he's shooting from a non-set position. The kid can just score.
Miettinen's hands and passing are very good, although not elite tools like his shot. But they're certainly good enough that you can envision him playing on a line with top talent down the line. Miettinen's numbers this year were. outrageous -- playing for one of the worst teams in the Finnish junior league and without much talent around him, Veeti put up 42 goals and 73 points in just 52 games. To give you some perspective, the second-highest scorer on the team was 21 year old Leevi Lemberg, who tallied 21 goals and 49 points.
What I really like about Miettinen is the pace he plays with. His feet are always moving, his motor never quits. He has so much hustle that he's one of those players who plays faster than he actually is. This is definitely a kid who you target in the 5th or 6th round. My closest NHL comparable would be (ideally) Viktor Arvidsson.
Some other "Bratt-like" possible 5th-7th rounders -- meaning players with top-6 upside who will quite possibly fall to that range:
LW Antonio Stranges
LW Evgeni Oksentyuk
LW Cross Hanas
LW Ivan Didkovsky
LW Matthew Gleason
LW Maxim Groshev
LW Daniil Gushchin
RW Connor McClennon
2020 marks the first time every I included an over-ager in my first round rankings, RW Dmitry Rashevsky. I also have one in my second round, LW Evgeni Oksentyuk. I normally down-grade them, although I do have the optimism required to still believe in the possibility of a "late bloomer".
With Axel Rindell, I'm not so certain. He's certainly possessing some intriguing offensive tools from the blueline -- he's got a great shot, especially for a 5'10--170ish defenseman. He has some good vision on the power play, but even strength he can be pressured into some questionable decision-making with the puck. That's my problem with Rindell -- I need offensive-minded defenseman to be steady, reliable and solid in their own zone. They don't have to be "shut down" guys if they can drive the offense and put up points, but Rindell is another all-offense kid who I would call a below-average defender, and when you add in the propensity for puck foibles you're talking about a kid I'm probably going to have buried too far down my draft list for serious consideration.
RW Alex Jeffries, The Gunnery USHS
Okay, I'm going to be straight out saying that I have barely seen this young player -- he plays high school hockey in Connecticut, and there just is not film available. I did some research and the best I can tell you is that he is an average sized kid; a volume shooter with good skating ability and a nice skill set. A few scouts have questioned his compete level, but again it's possible that he's playing below his competition level in Connecticut high school hockey. He's committed to Merrimack next year, which is an okay program but I'd be more comfortable drafting him if he was going to Minnesota or BU or a more prominent program. I'm actually curious what you heard about Jeffries which led you to ask me for analysis -- his was not a name a heard mentioned anywhere as a legit sleeper.
beekay414
#FireEveryone
His production stood out to me when I was looking at potential sleepers. He's got decent size (6'0", 195) and he's a right handed shot, which has been a focus of mine this class. I couldn't find a ton on him either so I was wondering if you knew more than I had read.
Haha, if he played in the CHL or USHL it would have made my life easier.
To be fair Merrimack has produced the highest scoring prospect drafted by NJ on a points per game or some other basis since 2012.
nugg
NJ Hammerhead Bats!
For you, I dug up my Cross Hanas "sleeper prospect profile" from August. I really like this kid, because he possesses skills which grade as excellent, which could turn out to be better than we even think when he increases his role with the Winterhawks since season. I noticed him a lot when scouting Seth Jarvis, when he's feeling confident and creative he really looks like a kid with top-6 NHL upside, and I think we're talking about a player who could be around in the 5th/6th rounds.
LW Cross Hanas, Portland WHL
To me, Cross Hanas is why one writes draft sleeper profiles in the first place. I have yet to see him crack a top 75 ranking (he just missed mine, but I think he'll make my next ranking). But we're talking about a kid with top-notch hands and creativity who, with a few tweaks in his game, could be a top 6 winger at the NHL level.
Hanas scored a respectable 49 points in 60 games for the Winterhawks, despite the fact that he played mostly a supporting role and averaged around 15 minutes per game. He's 6'1-165 with a very projectable frame -- since he has some work to do on his game anyway, I'd expect him to get his weight up to 180-185 when he is ready to turn pro in like three years. This added muscle weight should help get more drive into his skating, which would be described as good-to-very-good, though it bears mentioning that his stride could use some cleaning up. Hanas also adds plus skills in shooting and passing, though sometimes he gets caught trying to do too much by himself and can better utilize his teammates. If there's one thing Hanas really needs to work on, it's his consistency -- he can look fantastic one shift before you barely notice him the next. I don't think it's a question of his motor, I think sometimes with creative players they can think themselves out of a play trying to come up with some unheard of solution which coaching has not instilled in him.
Basically, everything in Hanas' game grades out as good to very good and, as mentioned, his hands and creativity are often dazzling. He's scored two lacrosse goals this year, and I don't think I've seen a game where he hasn't tried some deke or move which, whether or not it worked, made me smile. If I were coaching this guy, I'd encourage his creativity, but try to instill in him to maybe choose his spots better.
Ultimately, Hanas is a kid who could go in the 3rd or 4th rounds who clearly has a great deal of potential. An NHL organization is going to need some patience and develop him with care, but to me Cross Hanas is an ideal sleeper candidate for the 2020 draft.
beekay414
#FireEveryone
Yeah, I think he's off my board now. The kid may be good at hockey but there's something there that's not right. Don't think you can risk a 1st on someone like that.
I honestly don't know what it is with Gunler. I dug up as much info as I could on the kid, and I found a few people that mentioned he's a smart kid. I found a few people who said he clashed with coaches and an incident where he shoved a linesman during a scrum. I know he's good friends with Rangers' draft pick Nile Lundqvist, so we're not talking about a completely unlikeable loner. But it seems something in Gunler's demeanor puts certain people off, especially in positions of authority.
Would I still draft Gunler in the first round? I don't know. His potential is really big-time. But I'd have to be a bit wary, considering his developmental arc in 2019-20 was not extremely impressive, and it would have to be considered a step back if he were scratched by his SHL team in his draft + 1 campaign.
The fact is that the 2020 draft is loaded with talented, scoring RWs who could be around at #18 and #20. Perreault has significantly more talent than even Gunler, and has shown better development in the last year. Reichel can play either wing and is a coaches' dream, I think right now he might be a better pick at #20 than Gunler.
RememberTheName
Conductor of the Schmid Bandwagon
I'd like to quote a guy who posted on the mainboard thread about the recent movement of Gunler and this was his response
Combat Koala
Tough buildings never die
- Oct 29, 2014
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The more I think about it, the more I see us picking Reichel at 20. Just seems like a very "Devils type" player to me. I think 18 and 7 are up in the air just based on who goes where before its our time to pick. I'd like either of the defensemen at 7 - if not available, I'll be satisfied with one of Holtz, Rossi or Quinn. Maybe someone like Amirov or Perreault is there at 18. Or Holloway. Whatever. Can't really f*** it up, but then again that's what they said about the Bruins in 2015.
Very glad the draft is so close. Feels like it's been an eternity without Devils related hockey stuff.
Very glad the draft is so close. Feels like it's been an eternity without Devils related hockey stuff.
I do feel like I could see Reichel being high on our list. It make sense. I haven't been a fan because I question the upside, but no doubt that he's going to be the type that NHL people love. I'd still prefer using those two picks to move up in the draft, but I see almost no shot at that happening, tbh.
I am hoping we swing for the fences on one of those picks though.
Ol Dirty Bstrd
Registered User
- Nov 25, 2007
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Reichel and Greig have both grown on me at 20, especially if we take a higher upside guy like Perrault or Amirov at 18
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