Prospect Info: Ives Final 2020 Draft Rankings -- Top 100

[StevenToddIves]

the Devils have had months since their season ended -- I'd be pretty surprised if they didn't speak to most of the guys in their top 15-20 of their list multiple times.

From Castron:
"We got a pretty good handle on the guys before we got shut down, then from March on we had our scout meetings and met with players on Zoom. Also, the video system has improved so much over the years that you can watch all of an individual player’s shifts for a game in 12-to-15 minutes. It’s not the same as being there because the video misses some of the stuff that they do away from the puck, but it also doesn’t lie. The video has been a great tool for us."

" Certain guys that we’re keying on we’ve talked to two to three times and our meetings last 20-to-30 minutes. We go over a whole load of questions. We have our sports psychologist in there, too. You’re asking, ‘How do you see yourself as a player? When do you think you’ll be able to track into an NHL lineup? What’s your development path, career path, injury history?"
Devils scouting director Paul Castron talks prepping for draft in pandemic, 3 1st-rounders, career path | Q & A

Very relevant, thanks for posting this!

 

[OmNomNom]

also in Sanderson's interview today, he said the Devils have interviewed him multiple times

what interview

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

what interview

yesterday afternoon, all of the top prospects met with the media

 

[Nocashstyle]

I ranked Quinn just ahead of Holtz and just behind Jarvis as the best RW in the 2020 draft. These three RWs, along with Raymond and Perfetti, proved the toughest span of players for me to order in my entire rankings. It's because they are all such outstanding prospects, and they all offer such diverse talents.

My point is not whether I am right or wrong. My point is that there is no opinion that I am alone on. Last year, I thought I had ranked Moritz Seider higher than anyone on earth at #12, and then the Detroit Red Wings drafted him at #6 overall. This year, I thought I was the only person who saw Tristen Robins as a first-round caliber pick (ranked #17), but then someone on these threads sent me a major ranking (hockeyprospect.com) I had not been aware of which had Robins even higher at #13.

What we need to understand is that there will be NHL teams which have Jack Quinn ahead of Alexander Holtz on their draft boards, and it's not impossible that the Devils are among these teams. Now, I love Holtz -- I don't think I've written a negative word about him all year long. But, when breaking down Holtz vs. Quinn (I ranked Quinn #10 and Holtz #11 overall and it was as close as it gets), this is what it came down to, for me. Holtz's shot is the best in the draft, but Quinn is not too far behind. I also give Holtz a stiff advantage when it comes to hands -- I think Holtz has a beautiful set of mitts, and it's the most underappreciated facet of his game. The skating I would call about even. But I had Quinn ranked as higher than Holtz in every other category. So, I bit the bullet and said Quinn by a hair.

It's important to realize that I am a fan of both Quinn and Holtz and, as a Devils fan, would love either of these kids on my team. But it's also important to realize that if the Devils choice came down to Holtz vs. Quinn, there's a real chance their preference is Quinn. I'd like to end this little diatribe by adding that neither Quinn nor Holtz were my highest rated RW in 2020 -- that was Seth Jarvis, who I think is more of a dual-threat and line-driver than either Holtz or Quinn and plays with more edge, despite not lacking the prodigal pure-scoring upside of the aforementioned pair.

You are obviously more informed on prospects than I am. But I would just be concerned how Quinn seemed to have lit it up this year as an older prospect on a deep and very good team. The season before that, his numbers were pretty unremarkable. Was the improvement due to development? Or his age and skill surrounding him? Maybe a little bit of both?

I also recognize there is some irony that I’m really hoping this Devils snag Rossi at that spot

 

[Nubmer6]

You are obviously more informed on prospects than I am. But I would just be concerned how Quinn seemed to have lit it up this year as an older prospect on a deep and very good team. The season before that, his numbers were pretty unremarkable. Was the improvement due to development? Or his age and skill surrounding him? Maybe a little bit of both?

I also recognize there is some irony that I’m really hoping this Devils snag Rossi at that spot

Ya. To me Quinn is the higher risk because of a shorter track record which makes his ceiling harder to predict. However, he may be higher reward because of the same reason - he may have a lot more room to grow.

On the other hand, his better defense and all-around game may give him a higher floor of a third or fourth liner where Holtz may bust out completely if his scoring doesn't translate to the NHL for some reason.

 

[OmNomNom]

yesterday afternoon, all of the top prospects met with the media

is there video of these? can't find em

edit: unless it's this:

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

is there video of these? can't find em

Wheeler had a bunch of the quotes, check his timeline out

https://twitter.com/scottcwheeler

 

[OmNomNom]

hypothetical -

if the devils snag rossi at 7 and move up to like 11 or 12 with picks 18+20 to snag quinn, do we riot?

 

[Forge]

hypothetical -

if the devils snag rossi at 7 and move up to like 11 or 12 with picks 18+20 to snag quinn, do we riot?

Why would we riot? I'm not as high on Quinn as some, but that value is right to pick him. I'm confused.

That being said, I give it like a .1% chance that this FO gives up picks to move up

 

[OmNomNom]

Why would we riot? I'm not as high on Quinn as some, but that value is right to pick him. I'm confused.

That being said, I give it like a .1% chance that this FO gives up picks to move up

riot as a loose word, but just bc its dropping from 2 to 1 pick

 

[Forge]

riot as a loose word, but just bc its dropping from 2 to 1 pick

Ahh.

I don't have a problem with moving up if you feel that much better about that tier group and the player you are getting. I love Jarvis, and I'd rather have him than say, Reichel and Zary.

I do think that there is a large gap in the talent at 11/12 and 18/20.

 

[Guadana]

If we trade 18+20 for 11+37(or 42) and pick Quinn, i don`t see any problem with it. There will be enough high risk well reward prospects in second round.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

hypothetical -

if the devils snag rossi at 7 and move up to like 11 or 12 with picks 18+20 to snag quinn, do we riot?

I think I’d rather have 2 bullets than one but I wouldn’t be upset if the Devils really loved the player they were moving up to get. Don’t know enough about the players to be overly happy or sad about any outcome.

 

[Darkauron]

The only way I am trading up like that if we get Rossi with out first pick and then Sanderson is still available.

 

[StevenToddIves]

You are obviously more informed on prospects than I am. But I would just be concerned how Quinn seemed to have lit it up this year as an older prospect on a deep and very good team. The season before that, his numbers were pretty unremarkable. Was the improvement due to development? Or his age and skill surrounding him? Maybe a little bit of both?

I also recognize there is some irony that I’m really hoping this Devils snag Rossi at that spot

Rossi is my #4 overall prospect, so obviously I'd be happy with him, too!

As far as Quinn goes, it's important to note that he did not skate on the first line alongside Marco Rossi, as many mistakenly believe. The Ottawa 67's split them up, deploying Quinn on the second line with ex-Devils draft pick Mitchell Hoelscher. Though Quinn played on the power play with Rossi, he scored a ton of even strength goals as clearly the top player on his line.

As far as Quinn's massive improvement goes, I really can't explain it. He's just a devastating scorer with an excellent 200-foot game, and maybe he just blossomed in his draft-eligible campaign. Quinn apparently grew four inches between 2017-19, and maybe he just needed to grow into his body. Either way, he's a heck of a prospect and I really can't see him falling past #12 overall in the draft.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Ahh.

I don't have a problem with moving up if you feel that much better about that tier group and the player you are getting. I love Jarvis, and I'd rather have him than say, Reichel and Zary.

I do think that there is a large gap in the talent at 11/12 and 18/20.

I would disagree with your final statement, in the sense that there is more uncertainty between the guys available at #18 & #20 compared to the guys available at #11 & #12, but not necessarily less talent.

What I mean by this is the most "talented" RW in the 2020 draft is probably Jacob Perreault. His combination of skating/hands/vision is better not only than Holtz and Quinn, but also perhaps better than Stutzle and Raymond. It's that good. His shot compares about equally to Quinn (just behind Holtz), while his vision and skating compare just below Stutzle and Raymond. I mean, Perreault is just a monster talent, and he's also one of the younger players in the draft class. The problem is that Perreault does not always compete, and he showed up for his draft eligible season reportedly out of shape. There are no questions about the tools, but the tool box should drop him to #18 or so.

Noel Gunler is another player with comparable talent to Holtz and Quinn, but character questions drop him, too. Rodion Amirov certainly belongs in this conversation, he's just incredibly skilled. Seth Jarvis is a big wild card in that he could fall to the Devils at #18, or he could go in the top 10. I've been talking a bunch about Dawson Mercer -- his entire skill set is top 10, but he has the singular weakness of being an average skater.

The point is, I don't know if I'm looking to move up in the draft. If I had a choice between:

#7 - #18 - #20
Rossi or Raymond
Amirov
Perreault

OR:
#7 - #11
Rossi or Raymond
Quinn


I would go for the first option by a million miles.

 

[Forge]

I would disagree with your final statement, in the sense that there is more uncertainty between the guys available at #18 & #20 compared to the guys available at #11 & #12, but not necessarily less talent.

What I mean by this is the most "talented" RW in the 2020 draft is probably Jacob Perreault. His combination of skating/hands/vision is better not only than Holtz and Quinn, but also perhaps better than Stutzle and Raymond. It's that good. His shot compares about equally to Quinn (just behind Holtz), while his vision and skating compare just below Stutzle and Raymond. I mean, Perreault is just a monster talent, and he's also one of the younger players in the draft class. The problem is that Perreault does not always compete, and he showed up for his draft eligible season reportedly out of shape. There are no questions about the tools, but the tool box should drop him to #18 or so.

Noel Gunler is another player with comparable talent to Holtz and Quinn, but character questions drop him, too. Rodion Amirov certainly belongs in this conversation, he's just incredibly skilled. Seth Jarvis is a big wild card in that he could fall to the Devils at #18, or he could go in the top 10. I've been talking a bunch about Dawson Mercer -- his entire skill set is top 10, but he has the singular weakness of being an average skater.

The point is, I don't know if I'm looking to move up in the draft. If I had a choice between:

#7 - #18 - #20
Rossi or Raymond
Amirov
Perreault

OR:
#7 - #11
Rossi or Raymond
Quinn


I would go for the first option by a million miles.

When I say "talent", it's all encompassing, which means I'm including the likelihood that they actually reach their ceiling or play up to their talent, so that's probably a poor choice of word on my part...should be something more along the lines of their is a big drop in the evaluation grade of said players, so I do agree with you there.

If you're going to give me Rossi / Raymond + Jarvis / Quinn, or the three you named, I'm probably taking the former.

Obviously that can change based on the players as I'm not a huge fan of Perfetti for example, and having him be one of the two would lessen my love of that group.

 

[beekay414]

This one could hurt

 

[Guttersniped]

This one could hurt

That really sucks, I feel bad for him.

 

[Forge]

This one could hurt

Yeah, that's not going to help. I think he's a first round talent, but the injuries are going to crater his draft stock. I'd be very intrigued with Carolina's pick, even with the injuries.

 

[beekay414]

Yeah, that's not going to help. I think he's a first round talent, but the injuries are going to crater his draft stock. I'd be very intrigued with Carolina's pick, even with the injuries.

I still think someone in the 2nd will gamble on him. Especially someone like Ottawa who has a ton of them.

 

[Forge]

I still think someone in the 2nd will gamble on him. Especially someone like Ottawa who has a ton of them.

Solution! We trade 20 for 28 + 52 + 59.

Boom.

 

[StevenToddIves]

This one could hurt

That's too bad for Barron. I saw him as possibly a late first round pick, but this could drop him into the second. He's got a ton of talent, but has really experienced some unfortunate circumstances over the past couple of seasons.

 

[beekay414]

Seems to be okay. Small procedure on his shoulder.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Seems to be okay. Small procedure on his shoulder.

Good news. A lot of people really want to see what Justin Barron is capable of if healthy for a full season.