Buffalo Bills It's the Off-Season. Go.

[Husko]

With 88% of the vote, MHJ is the winner. Dallas Turner the add with 75%.

New poll: 2024 HF Bills Big Board 2

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (88%)

With 83% of the vote, Nabers is the winner. 3-way tie for add, so no add this round.

New poll: 2024 HF Bills Big Board 3

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (88%)
2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (83%)

 

[Krieger Bot]

He currently plays DE in a 3-4. I imagine he’d fill the Settle role or versatile depth that we complain about not being stout enough against the run.

I'm not sure how you're differentiating between DaQuan's role and Settle's role. But I suspect that Johnson is DaQuan's backup.

Per PFF, Johnson lined up in the B gap on over 80% of his snaps last year. And he lined up in the A gap on another 15% of his snaps. That's very similar to DaQuan, who played in the B gap on 75% of his snaps, and in the A gap on another 10-15% of his snaps. Settle similarly played in the B gap on about 85% of his snaps.

This is in contrast to a guy like Oliver, who only played in the B gap on about 45% of his snaps. He also played over tackle on another 45% of his snaps. And is over 25 pounds lighter than each of Daquan, Johnson, and Settle.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Not saying worthy is the guy I want - and in fact I’d look more into his outside fit to really know like you say - but he doesn’t have drop issues.

To be fair, my above comment wasn't based on seeing these stats, rather watching some highlights & reading scouting reports. Maybe he just made one or two drops at the worst times?

Even still - my main worry with Worthy still stands. We see it time and time again where guys get over drafted because speed. It seems that teams are hoping to find the next Tyreek Hill without fully realising that Hill is a truly unique player.

That number for Wilson is a bit scary but he's a complete project that you're drafting because of his tools & potential. I look at him as an even rawer version of DK Metcalf. You can judge mid round picks a little differently in this regard. Wilson is nowhere near the conversation for 28 or even 60.

I'd be interested to know who your target at 28 would be - WR or otherwise? Do you also have any mid/late round sleepers you like?

***

Regarding the above post by @Ace - I'm not going to directly respond to that because it's typical drivel. But I've made this point in past years & it only applies more now that we've reached 'cap hell'. The main things I'm looking at with my top picks are - 1) how many snaps will they play, 2) who would they be taking those snaps away from, 3) what is the net benefit.

Using this formula is how i come to the conclusion that JPJ would likely be the most valuable pick we could realistically make at 28 followed by one of the top tier EDGEs. It's also why I have both DL & S ahead of WR in terms of overall priority at this point. I also consider that this seems to be a particularly deep class at both WR/IDL, while S generally seems to be undervalued league wide. These three positions can likely be addressed very nicely with day 2 picks, hence my desire to get as many of those as possible.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

With 83% of the vote, Nabers is the winner. 3-way tie for add, so no add this round.

New poll: 2024 HF Bills Big Board 3

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (88%)
2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (83%)

Thanks for doing this again - i missed the first two votes.

Vote Odunze.
Added JPJ although thinking about it one of the top tackles would be a more valuable pick.

To tell the truth i have not really looked at any of the top WRs, safe in the knowledge they will be long gone by the time we pick. This seems to be the general consensus of the order they go - but i could actually see them go in any order depending on teams' particular preference & any one of the three could have a better career when all said and done. It's safe to say that any of them would be WR1 in more or less any other draft.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Here's where I think the roster stands in terms of locks or near-locks to make the 53:

Offense
QB: Allen, Mitch (2)
RB: Cook, Johnson (2)
TE: Kincaid, Knox, Gilliam (3)
WR: Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, Hollins (4)
OL: Dawkins, Brown, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Clapp, Van Denmark (7)
Total: 18

Defense
DE: Rousseau, Von, Epenea, Toohill (4)
DT: Oliver, Jones, Johnosn (3)
LB: Milano, Bernard, Williams, Morrow (4)
CB: Johnson, Douglas, Benford, Elam (4)
S: Rapp, Edwards, Lewis (3)
Total: 18

Special Teams
K: Bass (1)
P: Haack/Martin (1)
LS: Reid (1)
Total: 3

That's 41 roster spots pretty much locked down. Among those 12 remaining roster spots, a decent chunk will go to veteran STers (Spector, Evans, Isabella, Shorter, Hamlin come to mind). And there's a few bottom of depth chart guys that will have inside tracks on premier backup spots (Kingsley, Eli, Alec Anderson, Morris). Let's round down and say just 4 of those 8 guys make the team (it will be more) that puts us at 45/53 spots filled heading into the draft.

Then also consider that we're sitting on a decent chunk of cap space, have $10 million coming available June 1, and most of our draft picks will cost negative money to add to the 53.

What this all adds up to? We probably only have 6-8 spots for rookies and currently have 11 picks. Beane is going to being trading up quite a bit on draft day, I think.

Preach.

Trade down from 28, then use the rest of those picks to trade up. Get as many day 2 picks (preferably top 70-75) as you can.

I'd also consider trading some of this year's surplus for better picks next year. Less likely of course but this cap crunch will never go away so long as Allen is around.

 

[TehDoak]

Can I just say how solid of a builder beane has been.

The Bills defense is always solid. They assemble a deep group of unspectacular guys and make it work, year in and year out, especially on defense.

Yes, there are questions, especially at safety and center, but Beane has left himself enough space to be able to course correct in the summer when players get cut.

 

[Der Jaeger]

In the 1991 Super Bowl, John Madden made a comment about the Bills defense looking like a bunch of weight lifters. There was no girth to dig in and stop power running. He was right. That was a problem for all 4 Bills Super Bowl teams.

McDermott’s 4-2-5 has the same issue.

In the 1987 draft, the Bills took David Brandon in the 3rd round instead of Jerry Ball. Revisionist history, sure, but imagine Ball at NT for those Bills teams instead of Jeff Wright.

For that reason I think Sweat should be the pick.

 

[Husko]

To be fair, my above comment wasn't based on seeing these stats, rather watching some highlights & reading scouting reports. Maybe he just made one or two drops at the worst times?

Even still - my main worry with Worthy still stands. We see it time and time again where guys get over drafted because speed. It seems that teams are hoping to find the next Tyreek Hill without fully realising that Hill is a truly unique player.

That number for Wilson is a bit scary but he's a complete project that you're drafting because of his tools & potential. I look at him as an even rawer version of DK Metcalf. You can judge mid round picks a little differently in this regard. Wilson is nowhere near the conversation for 28 or even 60.

I'd be interested to know who your target at 28 would be - WR or otherwise? Do you also have any mid/late round sleepers you like?

***

Regarding the above post by @Ace - I'm not going to directly respond to that because it's typical drivel. But I've made this point in past years & it only applies more now that we've reached 'cap hell'. The main things I'm looking at with my top picks are - 1) how many snaps will they play, 2) who would they be taking those snaps away from, 3) what is the net benefit.

Using this formula is how i come to the conclusion that JPJ would likely be the most valuable pick we could realistically make at 28 followed by one of the top tier EDGEs. It's also why I have both DL & S ahead of WR in terms of overall priority at this point. I also consider that this seems to be a particularly deep class at both WR/IDL, while S generally seems to be undervalued league wide. These three positions can likely be addressed very nicely with day 2 picks, hence my desire to get as many of those as possible.

I feel more open to a lot of different directions than I have in years. WR, OL, DL, and S would all be perfectly viable picks. Maybe even mix in CB since Douglas is in a contract year and old, but I wouldn't love that personally:

-WR: I'd be very excited and all for a WR at 28. Or maybe even a trade up for Thomas. But unless the Bills think someone really stands out from that next big group, I see little downside in either trading back to the second before taking a WR, trading up for one in the second, or just wholesale waiting until our second pick for a WR. Not getting one with one of those picks, considering the strength of the class and lack of longterm upside at the position, would strike me as a disappointment.
-DL: Strong first round class but then it falls off hard, so it could make a lot of sense at 28. Especially if there's a big run on WRs and QBs causing the DL guys to fall further than they normally would. I think I prefer the bendy Chop over the more imposing Darius, but that's more of a taste thing.
-OL: There's a couple project OTs that could be there, wouldn't be a bad bet since Dawkins is old and Brown is contract year. IOL is what really intrigues me though. It's the best center class in a decade at the top. Usually there's maybe one center with a first round grade, I see three. If we want to solidify the position for a decade, here's our chance to do so.
-S: This is really just Dejean for me. There's a couple other solid prospects, but they're more day 2 talents. Dejean probably won't fall this far either.


What I really care about is difference makers. I want high octane players that could be all pros. Don't force any one position sicne there's so much potential for intersection of need and value. Let the board come to you, moreso than most years. I really like the idea of trading up in the second with all our ammo to get two higher profile players.

 

[Husko]

With 100%! of the vote, Odunze is the winner. Brian Thomas Junior and Latu both added.

New poll: 2024 HF Bills Big Board 4

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (88%)
2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (83%)
3. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (100%)

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Selanne00008]

We are moving all the way up for Odunze, or moving back into the 40s.

 

[Husko]

Bills going to be very well positioned for the Leonard Flloyd post draft FA market. It'll probably only take a couple million to add their rookies.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[truthbluth]

One thing that's clear from listening to Beane and McDermott over the years, they draft people, and to a great extent we'll never be able to project which players they target, because we don't get to witness the most important part of the process, i.e the interviews.

 

[brian_griffin]

Welcome back Rowley - as always, appreciate your keen interest in American Football draft from across the pond.

Been away for a while.

That KC game was another killer but i knew they were going to lose even if Bass made that kick.

My thoughts on FA/draft overall & by position:

<snipped his excellent insights>

<snip>
***

Regarding the above post by @Ace - I'm not going to directly respond to that because it's typical drivel. But I've made this point in past years & it only applies more now that we've reached 'cap hell'. The main things I'm looking at with my top picks are - 1) how many snaps will they play, 2) who would they be taking those snaps away from, 3) what is the net benefit.

Given your hiatus, in the interest of time, you can skip the remaining ~99 of his posts in this thread as they all say the same thing as the reply you read.

Wholly aligned with your assessment priorities for top picks. It's essentially an "incremental gain" investment methodology.

I also like how Beane's FA signings to date, as in past years, camouflage to some extent where the Bills will go with their initial pick(s). That camouflage hopefully prevents the Bills being gouged in a potential trade-up and helps protect the value they can extract in a trade-back.

The only point I'll quibble with is your comment in your OP about wanting to save money on the Trubisky signing. Spotrac has Trubisky at $2M. By your same "incremental gain" reasoning, I think Trubisky is one of the best, if not the best, backup deals in terms of potential performance value per dollar spent. Certainly is for a non-rookie deal. I know I am biased because I was similarly pleased when the Bills signed him 2 years ago, but so be it.

@Husko - work firewall blocks access to google docs and has done so for years. Any chance you could put your remaining "on deck" names in your Bills Board, or do that at some point as the picks get further along?
Also, how "far" should be go this year, recognizing the Bills will hopefully pick 3 times in the first ~100 picks. Maybe after ~40 deep, picks could be "doubled up" with 2 votes per round?

 

[Husko]

Welcome back Rowley - as always, appreciate your keen interest in American Football draft from across the pond.



Given your hiatus, in the interest of time, you can skip the remaining ~99 of his posts in this thread as they all say the same thing as the reply you read.

Wholly aligned with your assessment priorities for top picks. It's essentially an "incremental gain" investment methodology.

I also like how Beane's FA signings to date, as in past years, camouflage to some extent where the Bills will go with their initial pick(s). That camouflage hopefully prevents the Bills being gouged in a potential trade-up and helps protect the value they can extract in a trade-back.

The only point I'll quibble with is your comment in your OP about wanting to save money on the Trubisky signing. Spotrac has Trubisky at $2M. By your same "incremental gain" reasoning, I think Trubisky is one of the best, if not the best, backup deals in terms of potential performance value per dollar spent. Certainly is for a non-rookie deal. I know I am biased because I was similarly pleased when the Bills signed him 2 years ago, but so be it.

@Husko - work firewall blocks access to google docs and has done so for years. Any chance you could put your remaining "on deck" names in your Bills Board, or do that at some point as the picks get further along?
Also, how "far" should be go this year, recognizing the Bills will hopefully pick 3 times in the first ~100 picks. Maybe after ~40 deep, picks could be "doubled up" with 2 votes per round?

Sure! What are you looking for, just who else is currently in the poll? Maybe I could give those updates every 5 picks or so?

I think getting through the Bills top 2 picks is my realistic goal. A lot will depend on how many days I'm not able to get on to post a new poll / other people stepping up to do so. Also often once we get past the first round voting wanes and we move to one poll per few picks, so that'll help speed it along, because somehow we're only a little over a month from the draft already!

With 100%! of the vote, Odunze is the winner. Brian Thomas Junior and Latu both added.

New poll: 2024 HF Bills Big Board 4

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (88%)
2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (83%)
3. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (100%)

I voted Fashanu. Franchise caliber LT talent that can also play guard. I have him and Alt above any of the pass rushers.

Add JPJ, get the big fast center on the board!

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[TehDoak]

Well, with one of our bizillion day 3 picks, lets take a flyer on Joe Milton. That deep ball is SICK.

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Zman5778]

Once you get into that group -- the one after BTJ -- every single WR has at least one major question mark.

That's why I'm personally leaning away from a round 1 WR and more into the lines (or DeJean).

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Can I just say how solid of a builder beane has been.

The Bills defense is always solid. They assemble a deep group of unspectacular guys and make it work, year in and year out, especially on defense.

Yes, there are questions, especially at safety and center, but Beane has left himself enough space to be able to course correct in the summer when players get cut.

It's perfectly feasible that he comes away from the draft with day one starters at both of those positions without using 28 on either.

In the 1991 Super Bowl, John Madden made a comment about the Bills defense looking like a bunch of weight lifters. There was no girth to dig in and stop power running. He was right. That was a problem for all 4 Bills Super Bowl teams.

McDermott’s 4-2-5 has the same issue.

In the 1987 draft, the Bills took David Brandon in the 3rd round instead of Jerry Ball. Revisionist history, sure, but imagine Ball at NT for those Bills teams instead of Jeff Wright.

For that reason I think Sweat should be the pick.

I'm a big advocate of taking Sweat. But i think 28 is too early & it would require them to make a drastic change in philosophy.

I feel more open to a lot of different directions than I have in years. WR, OL, DL, and S would all be perfectly viable picks. Maybe even mix in CB since Douglas is in a contract year and old, but I wouldn't love that personally:

-WR: I'd be very excited and all for a WR at 28. Or maybe even a trade up for Thomas. But unless the Bills think someone really stands out from that next big group, I see little downside in either trading back to the second before taking a WR, trading up for one in the second, or just wholesale waiting until our second pick for a WR. Not getting one with one of those picks, considering the strength of the class and lack of longterm upside at the position, would strike me as a disappointment.
-DL: Strong first round class but then it falls off hard, so it could make a lot of sense at 28. Especially if there's a big run on WRs and QBs causing the DL guys to fall further than they normally would. I think I prefer the bendy Chop over the more imposing Darius, but that's more of a taste thing.
-OL: There's a couple project OTs that could be there, wouldn't be a bad bet since Dawkins is old and Brown is contract year. IOL is what really intrigues me though. It's the best center class in a decade at the top. Usually there's maybe one center with a first round grade, I see three. If we want to solidify the position for a decade, here's our chance to do so.
-S: This is really just Dejean for me. There's a couple other solid prospects, but they're more day 2 talents. Dejean probably won't fall this far either.


What I really care about is difference makers. I want high octane players that could be all pros. Don't force any one position sicne there's so much potential for intersection of need and value. Let the board come to you, moreso than most years. I really like the idea of trading up in the second with all our ammo to get two higher profile players.

I think we're more or less on the same page everywhere this year.

I do think there are some really intriguing guys behind DeJean at safety - namely Kinchens but also Tyler Nubin, Javon Bullard & Cole Bishop. Maybe even Malik Mustapha. If you view DeJean as a corner or even a 'positionless DB' then it's really murky as to who is the best true safety in this class.

Who do you like at C behind JPJ?

With 100%! of the vote, Odunze is the winner. Brian Thomas Junior and Latu both added.

New poll: 2024 HF Bills Big Board 4

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (88%)
2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (83%)
3. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (100%)

Voted Joe Alt, added JC Latham after i had some time to think about it. After the top 3 WRs its clearly a very strong draft at OT. Strong across the offensive line in general really.

Welcome back Rowley - as always, appreciate your keen interest in American Football draft from across the pond.



Given your hiatus, in the interest of time, you can skip the remaining ~99 of his posts in this thread as they all say the same thing as the reply you read.

Wholly aligned with your assessment priorities for top picks. It's essentially an "incremental gain" investment methodology.

I also like how Beane's FA signings to date, as in past years, camouflage to some extent where the Bills will go with their initial pick(s). That camouflage hopefully prevents the Bills being gouged in a potential trade-up and helps protect the value they can extract in a trade-back.

The only point I'll quibble with is your comment in your OP about wanting to save money on the Trubisky signing. Spotrac has Trubisky at $2M. By your same "incremental gain" reasoning, I think Trubisky is one of the best, if not the best, backup deals in terms of potential performance value per dollar spent. Certainly is for a non-rookie deal. I know I am biased because I was similarly pleased when the Bills signed him 2 years ago, but so be it.

@Husko - work firewall blocks access to google docs and has done so for years. Any chance you could put your remaining "on deck" names in your Bills Board, or do that at some point as the picks get further along?
Also, how "far" should be go this year, recognizing the Bills will hopefully pick 3 times in the first ~100 picks. Maybe after ~40 deep, picks could be "doubled up" with 2 votes per round?

RE Trubisky - big picture i just don't see any difference between having him (a guy who is clearly not close to good enough to be a starting NFL QB) or a guy who may or may not be slightly worse making minimum salary. If Allen goes down for any length of time, it's season over either way.

 

[Jim Bob]

With the FA moves they have made so far, 3T DT, DE, IOL, and WR seem to be the spots left with significant snaps that could be available to an early round rookie.

 

[Husko]

Once you get into that group -- the one after BTJ -- every single WR has at least one major question mark.

That's why I'm personally leaning away from a round 1 WR and more into the lines (or DeJean).

Right. If Beane likes one of them enough to pull the trigger at 28, I trust him. But taking another position at 28 and then trading up in the second for a WR is starting to make more sense to me.

 

[brian_griffin]

RE Trubisky - big picture i just don't see any difference between having him (a guy who is clearly not close to good enough to be a starting NFL QB) or a guy who may or may not be slightly worse making minimum salary. If Allen goes down for any length of time, it's season over either way.

I understand your point. I just view it differently. I think the incremental </=$1M Trubisky cost relative to a ~$1M vet minimum / rookie minimum is way less than the (high) differential value he provides over a Case Keenum or Kyle Allen or other.

I think last time with BUF he cost $4 or $4.5M.

Any your second point is also where I disagree. Without Josh Allen, the Bills can beat other teams, just not necessarily the KCs and SFs and other top-tier teams. Trubisky provides a cheap insurance policy for those "easier to achieve" potential wins in the event Allen goes down. Put a lesser backup in there and I think the outcome is a coin toss. The difference in W-L record if Trubisky has to play a game or few vs. a lesser backup could be the difference between home field playoffs, or making the playoffs, etc.

Mitch's incremental $1M is negligible in terms of the ~$255M cap or whatever it is this season.

Hopefully we never will find out just how valuable it is or isn't.