Buffalo Bills It's the Off-Season. Go.

[buffalowing88]

Here's where I think the roster stands in terms of locks or near-locks to make the 53:

Offense
QB: Allen, Mitch (2)
RB: Cook, Johnson (2)
TE: Kincaid, Knox, Gilliam (3)
WR: Diggs, Shakir, Samuel, Hollins (4)
OL: Dawkins, Brown, McGovern, Torrence, Edwards, Clapp, Van Denmark (7)
Total: 18

Defense
DE: Rousseau, Von, Epenea, Toohill (4)
DT: Oliver, Jones, Johnosn (3)
LB: Milano, Bernard, Williams, Morrow (4)
CB: Johnson, Douglas, Benford, Elam (4)
S: Rapp, Edwards, Lewis (3)
Total: 18

Special Teams
K: Bass (1)
P: Haack/Martin (1)
LS: Reid (1)
Total: 3

That's 41 roster spots pretty much locked down. Among those 12 remaining roster spots, a decent chunk will go to veteran STers (Spector, Evans, Isabella, Shorter, Hamlin come to mind). And there's a few bottom of depth chart guys that will have inside tracks on premier backup spots (Kingsley, Eli, Alec Anderson, Morris). Let's round down and say just 4 of those 8 guys make the team (it will be more) that puts us at 45/53 spots filled heading into the draft.

Then also consider that we're sitting on a decent chunk of cap space, have $10 million coming available June 1, and most of our draft picks will cost negative money to add to the 53.

What this all adds up to? We probably only have 6-8 spots for rookies and currently have 11 picks. Beane is going to being trading up quite a bit on draft day, I think.

Seeing this all on paper somehow feels...calming haha. It seems like Beane has been able to navigate his way to creating a competent roster yet again and we can draft with a position of leverage again.

I hope Spector makes the lineup as one of those extra ST guys. He had some flashes there at the end of the season.

 

[Husko]

We have our first tie! With 38% of the vote each, Alt and Turner both come off the board! Latu and Fashanu also received votes (full picture below). JPJ the overwhelming add.

New poll: 2024 HF Bills Big Board 6

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (88%)
2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (83%)
3. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (100%)
4. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame (38%)
4. Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama (38%)

 

[Der Jaeger]

@Husko your list always confuses me. Every time I read it, I think "are we that dumb that Caleb Williams isn't getting any votes?"

Then I remember that it's done by the Bills needs.

I voted for DeJean. I think of the players likely to fall, it'll be him, Barton, or Darius Robinson.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Right. If Beane likes one of them enough to pull the trigger at 28, I trust him. But taking another position at 28 and then trading up in the second for a WR is starting to make more sense to me.

If we're staying put at 28, i only realistically want JPJ or DeJean.

Other than those two, trade down & then trade back up with the cache of day 3 picks.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

We have our first tie! With 38% of the vote each, Alt and Turner both come off the board! Latu and Fashanu also received votes (full picture below). JPJ the overwhelming add.

New poll: 2024 HF Bills Big Board 6

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (88%)
2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (83%)
3. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (100%)
4. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame (38%)
4. Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama (38%)


View attachment 841352

This is a strange one.

Vote Fashanu, add Latham. But I'd likely also vote for Latham at this stage if he was on the list.

Latham seems to be the guy trending upwards while Fashanu seems to be trending down. I like the position flexibility Latham offers which we know is a big plus point for this staff. You could argue that he doesn't fit the super athletic prototype as much as the other top OL, but we saw them move away from that with the Torrence pick & that worked out very well.

 

[Jim Bob]

Grading the 2024 NFL Draft class by position | NFL News, Rankings and Statistics | PFF

Sam Monson grades the 2024 NFL Draft class by position.

www.pff.com

RECEIVERS: A+​

RUNNING BACK: C​

OFFENSIVE TACKLE: A​

INTERIOR OFFENSIVE LINE: C+​

DEFENSIVE INTERIOR: B​

EDGE DEFENDER: B-​

CORNERBACK: A​

SAFETY: C+​

​

 

[Der Jaeger]

PFN mock where I accepted a modest trade down from 28 and then stayed at every pick I had, just to see what I got.

Trade down: Bills trade 28 and 189 to Washington for picks 36, 100, and 139. Mostly went BPA but cross referenced in many cases with PFF and The Athletic.

36: T'Vondre Sweat DT Texas
60: Kiran Amegadjie OT Yale
100: Brendan Rice WR USC
128: Beaux Limmer IOL Arkansas
133: Tykee Smith S Georgia
139: Gabe Hall DT Baylor
144: Jordan Jefferson DT LSU
160: Cedreic Johnson DE Mississippi
163: Braiden McGregor DE Michigan
200: Myles Harden CB South Dakota
204: Carson Steele RB UCLA
248: Jordan Magee LB Temple

 

[Der Jaeger]

PFN mock where I accepted a modest trade down from 28 and then stayed at every pick I had, just to see what I got.

Trade down: Bills trade 28 and 189 to Washington for picks 36, 100, and 139. Mostly went BPA but cross referenced in many cases with PFF and The Athletic.

36: T'Vondre Sweat DT Texas
60: Kiran Amegadjie OT Yale
100: Brendan Rice WR USC
128: Beaux Limmer IOL Arkansas
133: Tykee Smith S Georgia
139: Gabe Hall DT Baylor
144: Jordan Jefferson DT LSU
160: Cedreic Johnson DE Mississippi
163: Braiden McGregor DE Michigan
200: Myles Harden CB South Dakota
204: Carson Steele RB UCLA
248: Jordan Magee LB Temple

Using that mock, here's a potential roster:

QB: Allen, Trubisky
RB: Cook, Johnson, Gilliam, Steele
WR: Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, Hollins, Shorter, Rice
TE: Kincaid, Knox, Morris
OT: Dawkins, Brown, Van Demark, Amegadjie
OG: Edwards, Torrence, Anderson
C: McGovern, Clapp, Limmer

DE: Rousseau, Miller, Epenesa, Toohill, McGregor, Johnson
DT: Oliver, Jones, Johnson, Sweat, Hall, Jefferson
OLB: Milano, Williams, Morrow, Magee
MLB: Bernard, Spector
NB: Johnson, Lewis
CB: Douglas, Benford, Elam, Harden
S: Rapp, Edwards, Smith

ST: Bass, Martin/Haack, Ferguson

That's 55, so I think Beane will need some trade up options. I think the draft gets a little stale around 155-170 and that's where I'd lokk to move picks to trade up.

 

[SundherDome]

PFN mock where I accepted a modest trade down from 28 and then stayed at every pick I had, just to see what I got.

Trade down: Bills trade 28 and 189 to Washington for picks 36, 100, and 139. Mostly went BPA but cross referenced in many cases with PFF and The Athletic.

36: T'Vondre Sweat DT Texas
60: Kiran Amegadjie OT Yale
100: Brendan Rice WR USC
128: Beaux Limmer IOL Arkansas
133: Tykee Smith S Georgia
139: Gabe Hall DT Baylor
144: Jordan Jefferson DT LSU
160: Cedreic Johnson DE Mississippi
163: Braiden McGregor DE Michigan
200: Myles Harden CB South Dakota
204: Carson Steele RB UCLA
248: Jordan Magee LB Temple

I'm really loving the Rice picks I am getting and seeing in mock drafts.

 

[Jim Bob]

Using that mock, here's a potential roster:

QB: Allen, Trubisky
RB: Cook, Johnson, Gilliam, Steele
WR: Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, Hollins, Shorter, Rice
TE: Kincaid, Knox, Morris
OT: Dawkins, Brown, Van Demark, Amegadjie
OG: Edwards, Torrence, Anderson
C: McGovern, Clapp, Limmer

DE: Rousseau, Miller, Epenesa, Toohill, McGregor, Johnson
DT: Oliver, Jones, Johnson, Sweat, Hall, Jefferson
OLB: Milano, Williams, Morrow, Magee
MLB: Bernard, Spector
NB: Johnson, Lewis
CB: Douglas, Benford, Elam, Harden
S: Rapp, Edwards, Smith

ST: Bass, Martin/Haack, Ferguson

That's 55, so I think Beane will need some trade up options. I think the draft gets a little stale around 155-170 and that's where I'd lokk to move picks to trade up.

Late round picks oftentimes end up as PS guys or outright cuts.

The Bills have tended to have 3-5 rookies make the opening 53 man roster as of late. With the added roster spots up for grabs, it might be 6-7 rookies that make it this year.

But, I am sure there will be some veteran FAs that are not on the roster today that make the 53 for week 1.

So, I am guessing they end up making 8-10 picks for those 6-7 rookies that make it.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Rowley Birkin]

With the FA moves they have made so far, 3T DT, DE, IOL, and WR seem to be the spots left with significant snaps that could be available to an early round rookie.

I would also argue S has to be added to this list. I really like Rapp but he wasn't a full time starter last year. Neither was Edwards for KC, IIRC & he's also only on a one year deal. I think you can easily add a day one starter.

Based on expected snaps i would rank them as follows:

C - 100%
There is a huge void there left by Morse. Even if McGovern slides over to C, you're left with a similar size hole at guard. Edwards was fine as the 6th man last year but is he a legit starter? His contract says not... You also worry that they were exceptionally lucky with injuries last year & they also lost a key depth guy in Bates - although that was fantastic business by Beane.

S - 90-100%
It's hard to know how it shakes out as Rapp/Edwards might become the next Hyde/Poyer. But it's a long shot. I can see a rookie taking on a starting role , particularly if it's DeJean. Dejean opens up a number of possibilities all on his own.

DL - 40-50%
During their tenure, they have tended to carry 9-10 guys & employ heavy rotation. Oliver playing circa 60% last season was even an outlier. It's why i didn't like the previous high draft picks, also one reason i hated the Miller contract right from the start. But you can't deny that it's a premium position that this staff puts a lot of importance on.

WR -?
This is the real wild card. If you could draft one of the top 3 then he'd instantly become a starter earning ~80%+. The problem is that we won't get one of those guys & i really don't see much difference between picking a guy at the back of R1, or day 2, possibly even early day 3. Diggs will get his usual share, they will do a lot of different things with Samuel, Shakir looked like their best guy towards the end of the season & he's going to get looks, not just slot but moving him around. Hollins isn't just a ST specialist, then you consider other positions - the TE's, Cook, do they also mix in more of a running game which also seemed to work toward the end of the season? It's feasible that the WR drafted this year really doesn't see much action year one. Think Davis' rookie year or Shakir's rookie year. Both turned into good players but weren't immediate contributors. Picking a guy at 28 this year won't necessarily change anything for the upcoming season.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Late round picks oftentimes end up as PS guys or outright cuts.

The Bills have tended to have 3-5 rookies make the opening 53 man roster as of late. With the added roster spots up for grabs, it might be 6-7 rookies that make it this year.

But, I am sure there will be some veteran FAs that are not on the roster today that make the 53 for week 1.

So, I am guessing they end up making 8-10 picks for those 6-7 rookies that make it.

Sure, agree on all.

That said, if I were on Beane's draft analytics team, I'd tell him he's free to drop from 11 to around 8-9 picks.

His team has probably run enough computer simulated mocks to know what players they want and where to target them. It's similar to how I'd look to off-load 160 and 163, because that range didn't have great picks for me. The Bills know that already, but based off their simulation and their board.

I'd rather not pick 11 kids and put 4-5 on the PS to be poached, like last year.

 

[TehDoak]

The new kickoff rule is making me rethink Xavier Worthy. I'm not sure he's going to be good enough to be a legit #2 WR in the league....but a f***ing insane return man with a 15 yard running start on teams....absolutely. If he gets one or two TDs early in the season, might be automatic 30 yard starts for the rest of the year.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Sure, agree on all.

That said, if I were on Beane's draft analytics team, I'd tell him he's free to drop from 11 to around 8-9 picks.

His team has probably run enough computer simulated mocks to know what players they want and where to target them. It's similar to how I'd look to off-load 160 and 163, because that range didn't have great picks for me. The Bills know that already, but based off their simulation and their board.

I'd rather not pick 11 kids and put 4-5 on the PS to be poached, like last year.

I could easil argue for taking less than 8 or 9:

1 x RB
1 x WR
1 or 2 x OL
2 x DL
1 or 2 x DB

Do you really need anything else ? Use those extra day 3 picks to move up AND maybe get an extra pick or two for next year.

 

[SundherDome]

I could easil argue for taking less than 8 or 9:

1 x RB
1 x WR
1 or 2 x OL
2 x DL
1 or 2 x DB

Do you really need anything else ? Use those extra day 3 picks to move up AND maybe get an extra pick or two for next year.

I mean, you took 8 in your scenario. We should also be looking at a linebacker as well.

 

[Jim Bob]

I would also argue S has to be added to this list. I really like Rapp but he wasn't a full time starter last year. Neither was Edwards for KC, IIRC & he's also only on a one year deal. I think you can easily add a day one starter.

Based on expected snaps i would rank them as follows:

C - 100%
There is a huge void there left by Morse. Even if McGovern slides over to C, you're left with a similar size hole at guard. Edwards was fine as the 6th man last year but is he a legit starter? His contract says not... You also worry that they were exceptionally lucky with injuries last year & they also lost a key depth guy in Bates - although that was fantastic business by Beane.

S - 90-100%
It's hard to know how it shakes out as Rapp/Edwards might become the next Hyde/Poyer. But it's a long shot. I can see a rookie taking on a starting role , particularly if it's DeJean. Dejean opens up a number of possibilities all on his own.

DL - 40-50%
During their tenure, they have tended to carry 9-10 guys & employ heavy rotation. Oliver playing circa 60% last season was even an outlier. It's why i didn't like the previous high draft picks, also one reason i hated the Miller contract right from the start. But you can't deny that it's a premium position that this staff puts a lot of importance on.

WR -?
This is the real wild card. If you could draft one of the top 3 then he'd instantly become a starter earning ~80%+. The problem is that we won't get one of those guys & i really don't see much difference between picking a guy at the back of R1, or day 2, possibly even early day 3. Diggs will get his usual share, they will do a lot of different things with Samuel, Shakir looked like their best guy towards the end of the season & he's going to get looks, not just slot but moving him around. Hollins isn't just a ST specialist, then you consider other positions - the TE's, Cook, do they also mix in more of a running game which also seemed to work toward the end of the season? It's feasible that the WR drafted this year really doesn't see much action year one. Think Davis' rookie year or Shakir's rookie year. Both turned into good players but weren't immediate contributors. Picking a guy at 28 this year won't necessarily change anything for the upcoming season.

With the way that McD has talked up how much he liked Edwards in Spags's scheme and that they re-signed Rapp after a year here makes me think they feel good with those two starting.

McD also talked up Edwards big time this week. To the extent that some of the media think that getting him in the starting lineup was a big part of the decision to move on from Morse and slide McGovern over to center.

Sure, agree on all.

That said, if I were on Beane's draft analytics team, I'd tell him he's free to drop from 11 to around 8-9 picks.

His team has probably run enough computer simulated mocks to know what players they want and where to target them. It's similar to how I'd look to off-load 160 and 163, because that range didn't have great picks for me. The Bills know that already, but based off their simulation and their board.

I'd rather not pick 11 kids and put 4-5 on the PS to be poached, like last year.

I would put the line for how many picks they make in the 8.5-9.5 range and my guess would be that they make 9 picks.

 

[Selanne00008]

I'll eat my flip flop if we take a S on day 1. And I'll eat that old jar of mayo in the back of my fridge if it's on day 2

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I mean, you took 8 in your scenario. We should also be looking at a linebacker as well.

6 to 8. I'm basing this on the fact that I expect (hope) a lot of trade ups & the obvious opportunity to add further roster depth once White's cap hit comes off the books.

I'm not sure about LB - Milano, Bernard, Williams, Morrow, Spector... Maybe they carry six but i can only really see that if there are worries over Milano's health. Obviously it's not impossible. They could theoretically draft someone at any position.

With the way that McD has talked up how much he liked Edwards in Spags's scheme and that they re-signed Rapp after a year here makes me think they feel good with those two starting.

McD also talked up Edwards big time this week. To the extent that some of the media think that getting him in the starting lineup was a big part of the decision to move on from Morse and slide McGovern over to center.

You don't think there's a chance that it could be smoke? Or at the very least - McDermott is simply talking up two recent FA signings at his favourite position group?

M Edwards signed a 1 year / 2.8 m contract. It doesn't scream to me that he's a locked in starter.

D Edwards could have been a contributing factor in letting Morse go. I personally think that letting him go made 100% sense on the spreadsheets but no sense on the field. You don't make that move AND trade Bates without a thought to bringing a draft pick in with at least starter potential IMO. Especially when you just enjoyed a season of above average OL play for the first time in forever.

 

[brian_griffin]

The new kickoff rule is making me rethink Xavier Worthy. I'm not sure he's going to be good enough to be a legit #2 WR in the league....but a f***ing insane return man with a 15 yard running start on teams....absolutely. If he gets one or two TDs early in the season, might be automatic 30 yard starts for the rest of the year.

I have a Kollej Dugree and it still took me 3 tries to understand all that.

Initial reaction:
1. If they're going to make those many changes, bring back the live ball rule such that the kicking team can recover an untouched ball in the end zone for a touchdown. (Also known as the Jets scoring 14 points on the Bills with no elapsed game clock time on MNF rule.)

2. "Onside kicks allowed in the 4th quarter."
A. How are they going to do onside kicks?
Do they use a separate (current/historical) onside kick rule using the traditional formation? If so, the kicking team will need to declare their intent before the receiving team lines up.
If not, I assume per the above the ball must instead travel to the 20 yard line, with the kicking team running from the opponent's 40 to the opponent's 20 or deeper before attempting recovery. Alternatively, the receiving team will be pursuing in the same direction as the kicking team back toward the receiving team's goal line. If the latter is the case, why wouldn't the kicking team attempt an onside kick every time since the field possession differential heavily favors the kicking team.
B. Teams should be able to on-side kick any time they want to try it.

Color me confused about onside kicks.

 

[Selanne00008]

I have a Kollej Dugree and it still took me 3 tries to understand all that.

Initial reaction:
1. If they're going to make those many changes, bring back the live ball rule such that the kicking team can recover an untouched ball in the end zone for a touchdown. (Also known as the Jets scoring 14 points on the Bills with no elapsed game clock time on MNF rule.)

2. "Onside kicks allowed in the 4th quarter."
A. How are they going to do onside kicks?
Do they use a separate (current/historical) onside kick rule using the traditional formation? If so, the kicking team will need to declare their intent before the receiving team lines up.
If not, I assume per the above the ball must instead travel to the 20 yard line, with the kicking team running from the opponent's 40 to the opponent's 20 or deeper before attempting recovery. Alternatively, the receiving team will be pursuing in the same direction as the kicking team back toward the receiving team's goal line. If the latter is the case, why wouldn't the kicking team attempt an onside kick every time since the field possession differential heavily favors the kicking team.
B. Teams should be able to on-side kick any time they want to try it.

Color me confused about onside kicks.

Onsides kick will be pre-reported to opposing team and refs and they line up like they would have in 2023 for an onside kick. Similar reporting wise to saying you are going for 2 after a Tiddy. So it's 'old school onside kicks'

This then eliminates any and all "surprise" onside kicks from the game entirely.

 

[Husko]

With the way that McD has talked up how much he liked Edwards in Spags's scheme and that they re-signed Rapp after a year here makes me think they feel good with those two starting.

McD also talked up Edwards big time this week. To the extent that some of the media think that getting him in the starting lineup was a big part of the decision to move on from Morse and slide McGovern over to center.


I would put the line for how many picks they make in the 8.5-9.5 range and my guess would be that they make 9 picks.

Their level of financial investment, and especially term given, indicates they view them more as one-year stoopgaps though.

We have our first tie! With 38% of the vote each, Alt and Turner both come off the board! Latu and Fashanu also received votes (full picture below). JPJ the overwhelming add.

New poll: 2024 HF Bills Big Board 6

1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (88%)
2. Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (83%)
3. Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (100%)
4. Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame (38%)
4. Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama (38%)


View attachment 841352

Reminder to vote!

 

[Taro Tsujimoto]

 

[26CornerBlitz]

The Bills will see him and the Rams at Highmark this season.

 

[Mike McDermott]

Does this help our dead cap amount?