Speculation: Islanders incoming cap crunch

[Sonofamitch]

People blow this out of proportion. Their cap issues aren’t as bad as everyone makes them seem. Sure the Ladd deal sucks. Eberle, lee, and Bailey are probably a little overpaid and past their prime.

But literally all they need to do is move Komorov and Cizikas and they have enough money to sign Barzel and pulock.

 

[miscs75]

Boychuk’s style of play doesn’t fit this current NHL and ive always had my doubts about the effort he brings every shift. There have been numerous games of his, dating back to Boston, where he looks to be carelessly floating.

Mainly I dont want him taking a spot from a youngster, my opinion on his effort and veteran leadership could be overstated

He'll most likely start the season as the #7 since he can play in a limited setting. Thankfully he only has 2 seasons left and could possibly be buried to turn into a player-coach. Lou will have to pull some magic off with both him and Ladd to clear the 11.5m in cap space.

 

[JoemAvs]

People blow this out of proportion. Their cap issues aren’t as bad as everyone makes them seem. Sure the Ladd deal sucks. Eberle, lee, and Bailey are probably a little overpaid and past their prime.

But literally all they need to do is move Komorov and Cizikas and they have enough money to sign Barzel and pulock.

The problem is that they not only have to move them (doable), they have to move them without taking any money in return (very hard to do).
Thats not easy in COVID-19 times and plenty of other teams are trying to do that as well while there are only a very limited amount of teams that are actually willing to take on salary. And these teams will get their pick and probably won't spend that very valuable currency on players like Komarov or Cizikas but aim higher and look at teams like Tampa that really have to get rid off some better players as well...

In all reality they need to find a taker for Leddy that won't send much money in return...

 

[Drew97]

The problem is that they not only have to move them (doable), they have to move them without taking any money in return (very hard to do).
Thats not easy in COVID-19 times and plenty of other teams are trying to do that as well while there are only a very limited amount of teams that are actually willing to take on salary. And these teams will get their pick and probably won't spend that very valuable currency on players like Komarov or Cizikas but aim higher and look at teams like Tampa that really have to get rid off some better players as well...

In all reality they need to find a taker for Leddy that won't send much money in return...

bodie wilde to toronto for rights to barrie and bracco and dermott

 

[KrisBeKreame]

bodie wilde to toronto for rights to barrie and bracco and dermott

The Islanders have no use or want for tyson Barrie. So nope.

 

[Djp]

People blow this out of proportion. Their cap issues aren’t as bad as everyone makes them seem. Sure the Ladd deal sucks. Eberle, lee, and Bailey are probably a little overpaid and past their prime.

But literally all they need to do is move Komorov and Cizikas and they have enough money to sign Barzel and pulock.

I’m objectively looking at this.

They need to sign Pullock, Toews, snd Barzal. I think they will cost around $16M combined.
They have about $8.9M in space.

They need to move out about $8M in net after factoring in roster spots filled of those traded.



Komeros and Cizikas amount to $6.4M - min roster replacrments means only about $4.8M in cap savings.
If they move Boychuk and replace with an ELC would save about $5.1M
Thst gives them $9.9m in space.

Cizikas has positive value
komerov has zero
Boychuk is negative.

They also need to create more space next summer.

If you sign Barzal to a bridge could save some short term. 2 yr bridge takes him to 2022 when Islanders have $22M coming off in 6 players.

 

[davinhimself]

The New York Islanders have had good success since Trotz came in to be their coach. And they are doing very well in the playoffs currently, but there is a huge problem coming for them this off-season. They are going to be in a cap crunch with their three best players (Barzal, Toews, Pulock) all becoming RFA's.

You might think looking at their cap space (8.1 million going to the off-season) that they can free up room for their guys and to keep their contention window open, but keeping it open will be near impossible.

Looking at the players locked up, they have five that are realistically movable. But the Isles will need to give up draft capital and/or a few prospects to move them out. Is it really going to be worth gutting the next couple years of youth development? And therefore setting them back after this window? They can keep their blue chips but the organizational depth will seriously struggle if they move a lot of pieces out to clear cap. Not to mention a couple of the guys on this list play top 6/top 4 minutes for their team. And the other guys are depth pieces that help them win games.

(I am going to use how many years are left AFTER this playoff run).
-Bailey (5 Million per, 4 years left)
-Clutterbuck (3.5 Million per, 2 years left)
-Cizikas (3.5 Million per, 1 year left)
-Leddy (5.5 Million per, 2 years left)
-Hickey (2.5 Million per, 2 years left)

The only guys that would not require many if any pieces added on to a trade are Hickey and Cizikas. The other three would need early picks, good prospects, and/or serious cap retention added on to get rid of them.

The Islanders would also need at least 3 teams more than likely to take on these guys. I seriously doubt with a flat cap that teams will take on money unless the Isles REALLY make it worth their while.

If they somehow move all of these pieces, the Isles will than have 28 million total cap space to re-sign the big three of Barzal, Toews, and Pulock who are all core players and hugely important to their team. According to Evolving-Hockey's contract projections (which are historically pretty accurate). Barzal will get 8x9.6M, Pulock will get 5x6.5M and Toews will get 4x4.75M. All in all adding up to around 21 million.

Now this is assuming none of them take a bridge deal, but the term value would be horrible for the Isles. Barzal's possible bridge is projected to be 2x6M or 3x7.5M, he would be a UFA within a couple seasons if he signed that (worst case scenario almost for the Isles cuz then they get no value from him). Similar drop in money for Toews and Pulock (while also giving them UFA rights within 2-3 years, risking Tavares 2.0 with their 3 key core players.)

Evolving-Hockey link (Patreon support is needed to view contract projections): https://evolving-hockey.com/?_inputs_&dir="Home"

there’d a bunch of avenues to making the cap work but Toews doesn’t sniff the Islanders top 3.

 

[davinhimself]

Boychuk’s style of play doesn’t fit this current NHL and ive always had my doubts about the effort he brings every shift. There have been numerous games of his, dating back to Boston, where he looks to be carelessly floating.

Mainly I dont want him taking a spot from a youngster, my opinion on his effort and veteran leadership could be overstated

That’s the worst take on Johnny Boychuk that someone could possibly put together.

 

[IslesNorway]

I’m objectively looking at this.

They need to sign Pullock, Toews, snd Barzal. I think they will cost around $16M combined.
They have about $8.9M in space.

They need to move out about $8M in net after factoring in roster spots filled of those traded.



Komeros and Cizikas amount to $6.4M - min roster replacrments means only about $4.8M in cap savings.
If they move Boychuk and replace with an ELC would save about $5.1M
Thst gives them $9.9m in space.

Cizikas has positive value
komerov has zero
Boychuk is negative.

They also need to create more space next summer.

If you sign Barzal to a bridge could save some short term. 2 yr bridge takes him to 2022 when Islanders have $22M coming off in 6 players.

Sending Ladd and Hickey to the AHL will save another $2.5 million or so on the cap, so in reality the Isles have around $11.5 left to sign the RFAs. That means they have to move around $4-5 million off the books somehow.

Trading Leddy would save them for now, but I don't think they are too keen on that as it worsens the team. Of course moving Ladd to LTIR will practically save them all the hassle so I wouldn't be surprised if that's what happens unless LL decides to be creative and try to sell off both Cizikas and Clutterbuck in one go.

 

[Djp]

Sending Ladd and Hickey to the AHL will save another $2.5 million or so on the cap, so in reality the Isles have around $11.5 left to sign the RFAs. That means they have to move around $4-5 million off the books somehow.

Trading Leddy would save them for now, but I don't think they are too keen on that as it worsens the team. Of course moving Ladd to LTIR will practically save them all the hassle so I wouldn't be surprised if that's what happens unless LL decides to be creative and try to sell off both Cizikas and Clutterbuck in one go.

Burying players saves very little when you factor in the roster replacement

LTIR only works if you have ELC players you can send down and then call up against the ltir space. They are on the roster active on day 1; only then can they go on ltir.

 

[boredmale]

Islanders should just offer Barzal a 2 year deal. First year 3.5M signing bonus 1M salary, second year 7M signing bonus 1M salary. Given the 1M this year gets pro rated Barzal loses some of that money but collectively makes 12M+ while the caphit is roughly 6.25M

I can see many 1-2 year deals being handed out with high bonuses but low actual salary that way the player will get a nice payday this season

 

[TOGuy14]

Islanders should just offer Barzal a 2 year deal. First year 3.5M signing bonus 1M salary, second year 7M signing bonus 1M salary. Given the 1M this year gets pro rated Barzal loses some of that money but collectively makes 12M+ while the caphit is roughly 6.25M

I can see many 1-2 year deals being handed out with high bonuses but low actual salary that way the player will get a nice payday this season

lol at the idea of Barzal signing for two years at 6.25

he has been their top scorer for three straight seasons but you want him to take short term and small cap?

 

[boredmale]

lol at the idea of Barzal signing for two years at 6.25

The way did the contract he get a guaranteed 12M. If we only have a 50 game season most players are only going to get 5/8ths of their salary this season by giving Barzal huge bonuses that is more money then if he signed 2 year 7.5M(no bonus)

 

[Strait2thecup]

Unfortunately they moved all their picks which would have made trading Ladd/Boychuk much easier.

yes, very unfortunate they moved a pick to acquire and with JGP long term. Sucks that they’ll lose Barzal and pulock now :/.

 

[TOGuy14]

The way did the contract he get a guaranteed 12M. If we only have a 50 game season most players are only going to get 5/8ths of their salary this season by giving Barzal huge bonuses that is more money then if he signed 2 year 7.5M

anyone offersheeting Barzal could do the same bonus laden contract but provide higher values

I don’t see how he doesn’t fetch at least the Aho deal on the open market. Aho’s deal had him making over 20M in signing bonus the first two years

Carolina Hurricanes: Sebastian Aho Offer Sheet Breakdown.

Aho would be paid $11.3M in signing bonuses in year 1, plus a $700k salary; in year 2, his signing bonus would be $9.87M, with a $700k salary. Year 3 sees Aho receiving $6.95M in signing bonus, plus a $750k salary. In years 4 and 5, Aho will receive $5.25M in signing bonus, plus $750k in salary.

 

[boredmale]

anyone offersheeting Barzal could do the same bonus laden contract but provide higher values

I don’t see how he doesn’t fetch at least the Aho deal on the open market. Aho’s deal had him making over 20M in signing bonus the first two years

Carolina Hurricanes: Sebastian Aho Offer Sheet Breakdown.

Barzal statswise is not as good as Aho so if Aho is worth 8.5M on a 5 year deal you figure a 2 year deal would be much less. Reason Barzal grabs the 2 year deal would be in 2 years he gets his huge payday which could put him in the 10M+ category

Probably a better point of comparison is Brayden Point's 3 years bridge deal(6.75M)

 

[Strait2thecup]

anyone offersheeting Barzal could do the same bonus laden contract but provide higher values

I don’t see how he doesn’t fetch at least the Aho deal on the open market. Aho’s deal had him making over 20M in signing bonus the first two years

Carolina Hurricanes: Sebastian Aho Offer Sheet Breakdown.

it’s not an open market though, he’s restricted just like Aho who outproduced him in the two years leading to RFA. He’ll get at most what aho did which is manageable for the islanders

 

[The Real JT]

Barzal was a steal at pick #18 and he's staying on the Island. Lou will get ink to paper.
When I see that Aho went in Round 2 at #35 I'm a little jealous.

Why?
Here's a few of the Isles 2nd round picks lately:
Robin Salo
Ruslan Ishakov
Bode Wilde
Samuel Bolduc

Still some potential there but I'm not too high on the first two on the list.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Still confused why people think its in Barzal’s best interest to take short term. He has proven himself already and is the Islanders best player

Idt anyone can name me a single RFA whos their teams best player who took a bridge deal

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Still confused why people think its in Barzal’s best interest to take short term. He has proven himself already and is the Islanders best player

Idt anyone can name me a single RFA whos their teams best player who took a bridge deal

Point?

I think the reason it isn't in his best interest is the landscape right now is that teams are going to be really looking hard at curbing spending. If he takes a bridge and his contract is up after Seattle enters the league, fans are back in seats it lends himself to getting an obscene contract either from the Isles or a sheet.

I think offer sheets may be a big thing as soon as the cap increases. So many teams will have locked in or tried to lock in players in addition to leaving wiggle room that a sheet could be offered that might not be matched.

I'm three IPA's in so I'm not checking if the above makes sense, so if it doesn't, there's your reason.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Point?

I think the reason it isn't in his best interest is the landscape right now is that teams are going to be really looking hard at curbing spending. If he takes a bridge and his contract is up after Seattle enters the league, fans are back in seats it lends himself to getting an obscene contract either from the Isles or a sheet.

I think offer sheets may be a big thing as soon as the cap increases. So many teams will have locked in or tried to lock in players in addition to leaving wiggle room that a sheet could be offered that might not be matched.

I'm three IPA's in so I'm not checking if the above makes sense, so if it doesn't, there's your reason.

Point isnt better than Vasilev or Hedman, Kucherov scores a lot more and Stamkos when healthy may be better as well

 

[Merrrlin]

Petry getting 6.25 bodes really well for old Lou.

Pulock should be looking at 6ish with term now, I am guessing.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Petry getting 6.25 bodes really well for old Lou.

Pulock should be looking at 6ish with term now, I am guessing.

That's what we've figured, 6 with term is about right. Maybe 5.5. We will see.

 

[periferal]

lol at the idea of Barzal signing for two years at 6.25

he has been their top scorer for three straight seasons but you want him to take short term and small cap?

Yes - It happens in today's NHL - It's called a bridge deal. Not that surprising. You think Laine got his full value last summer when he took his current deal?

I think the Isles would have to be over 7M on a bridge deal for Barzal (if for no other reason than their highest paid player is Lee at 7M and Barzal is obviously more valuable).

That said if Barzal was a UFA he'd definitely be getting 9M+ from some team.

 

[TOGuy14]

Yes - It happens in today's NHL - It's called a bridge deal. Not that surprising. You think Laine got his full value last summer when he took his current deal?

I think the Isles would have to be over 7M on a bridge deal for Barzal (if for no other reason than their highest paid player is Lee at 7M and Barzal is obviously more valuable).

That said if Barzal was a UFA he'd definitely be getting 9M+ from some team.

There are enough teams with cash and cap that he will possibly get an OS at the 1st, 2nd, 3rd level from a team like Detroit, LAK, Buffalo, NJ or even Colorado

I could see somewhere around 8-8.7M on a five year deal with all sorts of odd structure on bonuses to be most beneficial to Barzal

Barzal has already publicly gone on record saying he hopes that more offer sheets go around to "shake up the league" but didn't indicate if that was just general sentiment or specific to him. Either way it doesn't seem like he thinks an OS is a taboo concept as a player.

Point?

I think the reason it isn't in his best interest is the landscape right now is that teams are going to be really looking hard at curbing spending. If he takes a bridge and his contract is up after Seattle enters the league, fans are back in seats it lends himself to getting an obscene contract either from the Isles or a sheet.

I think offer sheets may be a big thing as soon as the cap increases. So many teams will have locked in or tried to lock in players in addition to leaving wiggle room that a sheet could be offered that might not be matched.

I'm three IPA's in so I'm not checking if the above makes sense, so if it doesn't, there's your reason.

Point is a piece in a deep and talented TB roster.

Barzal has lead the Isles in scoring three straight seasons now. His best bet is a five year deal in the 8M+ range. Gives him short term security with the chance to hit UFA at a prime age to secure a big seven year deal down the road at 28