Speculation: Islanders incoming cap crunch

[Crazydounut]

The New York Islanders have had good success since Trotz came in to be their coach. And they are doing very well in the playoffs currently, but there is a huge problem coming for them this off-season. They are going to be in a cap crunch with their three best players (Barzal, Toews, Pulock) all becoming RFA's.

You might think looking at their cap space (8.1 million going to the off-season) that they can free up room for their guys and to keep their contention window open, but keeping it open will be near impossible.

Looking at the players locked up, they have five that are realistically movable. But the Isles will need to give up draft capital and/or a few prospects to move them out. Is it really going to be worth gutting the next couple years of youth development? And therefore setting them back after this window? They can keep their blue chips but the organizational depth will seriously struggle if they move a lot of pieces out to clear cap. Not to mention a couple of the guys on this list play top 6/top 4 minutes for their team. And the other guys are depth pieces that help them win games.

(I am going to use how many years are left AFTER this playoff run).
-Bailey (5 Million per, 4 years left)
-Clutterbuck (3.5 Million per, 2 years left)
-Cizikas (3.5 Million per, 1 year left)
-Leddy (5.5 Million per, 2 years left)
-Hickey (2.5 Million per, 2 years left)

The only guys that would not require many if any pieces added on to a trade are Hickey and Cizikas. The other three would need early picks, good prospects, and/or serious cap retention added on to get rid of them.

The Islanders would also need at least 3 teams more than likely to take on these guys. I seriously doubt with a flat cap that teams will take on money unless the Isles REALLY make it worth their while.

If they somehow move all of these pieces, the Isles will than have 28 million total cap space to re-sign the big three of Barzal, Toews, and Pulock who are all core players and hugely important to their team. According to Evolving-Hockey's contract projections (which are historically pretty accurate). Barzal will get 8x9.6M, Pulock will get 5x6.5M and Toews will get 4x4.75M. All in all adding up to around 21 million.

Now this is assuming none of them take a bridge deal, but the term value would be horrible for the Isles. Barzal's possible bridge is projected to be 2x6M or 3x7.5M, he would be a UFA within a couple seasons if he signed that (worst case scenario almost for the Isles cuz then they get no value from him). Similar drop in money for Toews and Pulock (while also giving them UFA rights within 2-3 years, risking Tavares 2.0 with their 3 key core players.)

Evolving-Hockey link (Patreon support is needed to view contract projections): https://evolving-hockey.com/?_inputs_&dir="Home"

Click to read more...

 

[boredmale]

Sign Barzal and Toews to 2 year deals, Get Pulock long term. Trade Leddy and give away Hickey to anybody who wants him(else put him back down in the AHL thus negating 1M of his salary), try find a way to place Ladd on LITR

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Barzal takes the $8M cap cushion that the Islanders currently have. Pulock takes the money vacated by a Leddy trade. Other smaller adjustments necessary to fill out the roster, as necessary.

They'll be fine.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

Barzal takes the $8M cap cushion that the Islanders currently have. Pulock takes the money vacated by a Leddy trade. Other smaller adjustments necessary to fill out the roster, as necessary.

They'll be fine.

Oh no no no. As a Tampa fan, they HAVE to give up a player. Maybe TWO. Offer sheets are going to come flying at them like machine gun bullets over the trenches. Get ready, Isles fans.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Oh no no no. As a Tampa fan, they HAVE to give up a player. Maybe TWO. Offer sheets are going to come flying at them like machine gun bullets over the trenches. Get ready, Isles fans.

Your situation is much, much, much different.

 

[Igor Shestyorkin]

Sign Barzal and Toews to 2 year deals, Get Pulock long term. Trade Leddy and give away Hickey to anybody who wants him(else put him back down in the AHL thus negating 1M of his salary), try find a way to place Ladd on LITR

Yeah just LTIR Ladd while he’s healthy

 

[jgimp]

If your not willing to let Pulock go (what would it take? Picks? ELC rookie? Salary dump?) then I could see the Jets in on Leddy as a stop gap for 2 years.

 

[blinkman360]

Leddy is good as gone. Ladd will be LTIRed. One of Boych or Leo will probably go to Seattle with a high end future as incentive - probably our 2021 1st. Hickey can be dealt or buried.

Expect Dobson and Wahlstrom to step in to bigger roles to try to save some money.

I think we’ll be fine as long as we don’t add anyone. We won’t be able to make a play for any decent salaried UFAs.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Leddy is good as gone. Ladd will be LTIRed. One of Boych or Leo will probably go to Seattle with a high end future as incentive - probably our 2021 1st. Hickey can be dealt or buried.

Expect Dobson and Wahlstrom to step in to bigger roles to try to save some money.

I think we’ll be fine as long as we don’t add anyone. We won’t be able to make a play for any decent salaried UFAs.

That doesn't really play this off season.

 

[topshelf15]

They have enough depth built up ,in prospects they can soft deal a piece or two away

 

[blinkman360]

That doesn't really play this off season.

Doesn’t have to though. As long as the other moves happen we’ll be fine. The Seattle idea has more to do with re-upping Beauvillier and Sorokin - plus prepping for Pelech’s raise.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Doesn’t have to though. As long as the other moves happen we’ll be fine. The Seattle idea has more to do with re-upping Beauvillier and Sorokin - plus prepping for Pelech’s raise.

Ah. I see.

 

[Diamonddog01]

It's too bad Mayfield didn't have a slightly higher cap hit as he's a guy I'd love on the Canucks, but his contract is such a sweetheart deal. Hope that dude fired his agent btw. Wonder if a Boychuk trade could be explored as he has a limited NTC, will probably cost to a lot move him but that would a) free up cap and b) free up a spot for Dobson.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

They don't really have to do too much. Leddy's tradable and won't require an asset to go along with him. The return will be underwhelming but a 2nd rounder and "b" prospect is obtainable. Hickey, if not traded is buriable, which saves 1.025. Ladd could be buried as well though we'd love to trade him (but that's just fantasy).

That right there is about 8M, which would give the Isles 16M, which should be enough to get Barzal on a bridge (an expensive one but a bridge nevertheless), Pulock long-term and Toews at a 3 year deal.

I don't see Toews getting 4.5. I think he'd wind up in the 2.75-3.25 range.

This is probably the "best' year to have this problem since the flat cap ensures a lot of teams won't have the wiggle room they normally do to offersheet or make a play for an RFA.

We'll see. I'm confident that Lou will be able to get everyone signed. if an aberration occurs and someone pilfers Toews away the org will recover.

 

[CREW99AW]

It's too bad Mayfield didn't have a slightly higher cap hit as he's a guy I'd love on the Canucks, but his contract is such a sweetheart deal. Hope that dude fired his agent btw. Wonder if a Boychuk trade could be explored as he has a limited NTC, will probably cost to a lot move him but that would a) free up cap and b) free up a spot for Dobson.

Boychuk is owed a total of $5.2m for the next 2 seasons. He is still a quality D and team leader. Nice pickup for a team wanting leadership and an owner not wanting to spend actual cash.
The biggest problem would likely be getting him to expand his 8 team trade list.

 

[Djp]

My independent views...

First you are going to not get back what you wish to get for $4M++ for older players who are 28+ who are on downsides of their career with players hitting 33+ can be reall anchor contracts.

There are many other teams in similar situations and with a flat cap new teams don’t have such room to absorb the longer contracts and you want full value.

Pulock needs a long contract, barzal gets a 3 yr bridge.

You don’t have much coming off in the next few years.

In ED you have to plan on Seattle taking one of these long contracts.

Beauvillier Gets Cizkas cap space added.

Leady can be traded but ideally you take back a lower salary player but not worry about is it a far trade. Drop the idea you will get a top D prosrpect for him or a 1st.

You might trade Bsiley but salary would still be coming back but maybe say a 2 for 1 trade where each player is owed $2M -$3M per.

 

[CREW99AW]

My independent views...

First you are going to not get back what you wish to get for $4M++ for older players who are 28+ who are on downsides of their career with players hitting 33+ can be reall anchor contracts.

There are many other teams in similar situations and with a flat cap new teams don’t have such room to absorb the longer contracts and you want full value.

Pulock needs a long contract, barzal gets a 3 yr bridge.

You don’t have much coming off in the next few years.

In ED you have to plan on Seattle taking one of these long contracts.

Beauvillier Gets Cizkas cap space added.

Leady can be traded but ideally you take back a lower salary player but not worry about is it a far trade. Drop the idea you will get a top D prosrpect for him or a 1st.

You might trade Bsiley but salary would still be coming back but maybe say a 2 for 1 trade where each player is owed $2M -$3M per.

I have not seen 1 NYI fan post suggesting Leddy ($5.5m), would return a top prospect. i have read suggestions saying a 2nd & 3rd or 2 second rounders.
I think LHD Leddy or RHD Boychuk are the most likely to go.

Cizikas ( $3.5m) is a ufa next summer.
Clutterbuck & Uncle's Leo each have 2 yrs/ $7m left and would require a sweetner to move.
Bailey ($5m) is having a strong postseason, which can only help if the isles do decide to try and move him.
Ladd ($5.5m), spent much of the season riding the buses in Bridgeport. Now that the July 2020 signing bonuses have been paid, Ladd has 3 yrs/$9m in actual cash left. Would Ladd prefer riding the ahl buses for the next 3 yrs or LTIR? Will Lou offer a high pick to a cap fl team to take Ladd or Boychuk's ($5.5m-$6m) cap hit?
I see plenty of wiggle room to free up salary.

Below is a link to Barzal's April 2020 comments, where he says he expects to sign a new NYI contract. And if anyone is watching Barzal's recent bubble playoff interviews, where he says how he and his teammates are loving the bubble experience, you get an idea of how tight this Isles group is.So long as the isles treat Barzal/Pulock fairly and don't sour them on the organization...I expect both to sign.


Barzal feels he'll sign with Islanders, hasn't had talks during pause
"To be honest with you guys, I don't think there's been too much communication, and not because there's anything negative or anything, it's just [general manager Lou Lamoriello is] getting ready for a playoff run right now, and I'm still worried about this season as well," Barzal said Friday. "I'm not too too worried about it, just because I don't think the season is over yet. I think we're still going to be playing.
"There's bigger things we've got to worry about right now in terms of heading to the [Stanley Cup] Playoffs this year. But at the same time, whenever we're ready to sit down and get it done, I'd love for that to happen. At the same time, I'm not a person that's just going to rush this thing or get nervous about it or whatever. I'm just going about my day, and it'll happen when it happens."
Lamoriello said last month the Islanders would match an offer sheet if Barzal were to sign one.
"My first year, we weren't in the playoffs I think with 11 or 12 games left. It was really no fun. You just really didn't have a sense of competitiveness, whereas being in the playoff fight the last two years has been a blast for me and my teammates. I was pretty confident we were still going to make the playoffs."

 

[Diamonddog01]

Boychuk is owed a total of $5.2m for the next 2 seasons. He is still a quality D and team leader. Nice pickup for a team wanting leadership and an owner not wanting to spend actual cash.
The biggest problem would likely be getting him to expand his 8 team trade list.

5.2m for the next two season is a lot for a #5 playing 17 minutes a game. I think you are being optimistic in regards to his trade value, no team will trade assets for a 36 year-old with 2 more years left at a fairly high cap hit. It will cost the Isles to move him imo (if he agrees to expand his list).

 

[ziggy7716]

Ladd is going to Robidas Island, so his 5.5M is going to disappear, Leo is likely going with him, that’s another 3M. Hickey will go for a 5th rd pick which frees another 2.5M. Leddy will go for picks and that’s another 5.5M. That’s 16M freed up. Won’t be a issue.

And to the OP, Devon Toews isn’t getting nearly that much. While he’s very good, he’s only getting roughly 3.25M.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

@Crazydounut

Red Winigs might have interest in Leddy, what would that deal look like in your mind?

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

How you guys gonna fit Parise in?

 

[boredmale]

How you guys gonna fit Parise in?

I could be wrong but I believe the deal involved Ladd going the other way(basically to cover some of Parise's salary and caphit). I wouldn;t have been surprised if another contract was put in to even out salaries say like Komarov or Hickey(basically Minny would take the short term hit in bad contracts to get rid of Parise's contract long term)

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I could be wrong but I believe the deal involved Ladd going the other way(basically to cover some of Parise's salary and caphit). I wouldn;t have been surprised if another contract was put in to even out salaries say like Komarov or Hickey(basically Minny would take the short term hit in bad contracts to get rid of Parise's contract long term)

Ladd + Komarov + 2021 1st for Parise?

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

Oh no no no. As a Tampa fan, they HAVE to give up a player. Maybe TWO. Offer sheets are going to come flying at them like machine gun bullets over the trenches. Get ready, Isles fans.

legit laughed out loud

 

[KaprizovEntitlelist]

I could be wrong but I believe the deal involved Ladd going the other way(basically to cover some of Parise's salary and caphit). I wouldn;t have been surprised if another contract was put in to even out salaries say like Komarov or Hickey(basically Minny would take the short term hit in bad contracts to get rid of Parise's contract long term)

Get rid of parise contract? Haha Minnesota doesn't need to.

It was & is very much a fact Minnesota wasn't doing deal without a 1sr. Minnesota doesn't need to get rid of Parise.