Speculation: Islanders incoming cap crunch

[CREW99AW]

5.2m for the next two season is a lot for a #5 playing 17 minutes a game. I think you are being optimistic in regards to his trade value, no team will trade assets for a 36 year-old with 2 more years left at a fairly high cap hit. It will cost the Isles to move him imo (if he agrees to expand his list).

It's $2.6m per for the next 2 seasons, not $5.2m per.
Disagree. $2.6m per for a solid RHD, who brings veteran leadership and will come cheaply will draw interest.
Boychuk's first comment after being dealt from Boston to the isles was " we ( Isles) are a good team".
Don't underestimate what swag and locker room leadership means to a floundering organization.

 

[CREW99AW]

Could the league financial struggles actually help teams like the isles, attempting to move a player with a front loaded salary?

I have read that some teams are in actual danger of being sold, that some teams will set an internal cap and spend much closer to the cap fl then ceiling.. Those teams will be more concerned with actual cash paid out and less concerned with a players cap hit.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Could the league financial struggles actually help teams like the isles, attempting to move a player with a front loaded salary?

I have read that some teams are in actual danger of being sold, that some teams will set an internal cap and spend much closer to the cap fl then ceiling.. Those teams will be more concerned with actual cash paid out and less concerned with a players cap hit.

Apparently that only works for other teams, not ours

 

[IranCondraAffair]

Could the league financial struggles actually help teams like the isles, attempting to move a player with a front loaded salary?

I have read that some teams are in actual danger of being sold, that some teams will set an internal cap and spend much closer to the cap fl then ceiling.. Those teams will be more concerned with actual cash paid out and less concerned with a players cap hit.

Probably the opposite. It doesn't help a team to cut salary to by adding a terrible player making millions like the Islanders want to ditch. In a normal offseason, you'd have 29 other teams to consider sending your trash. This offseason will have less potential buyers which makes it harder no matter which way you slice it.

The only real advantage of this season is that the Isles (assuming they aren't on a budget) can leverage the situation by taking back big (terrible) contracts with lots of money owed in exchange for their terrible contracts with less money owed. Unfortunately, there simply isn't a lot of big money contracts out there with a cap hit the Islanders can afford.

Take Bobby Ryan for instance. He's still owed 13M over the next 2 years. I'm sure Ottawa would like to get rid of the money, but how are the Islanders going to find a way to take on his 7.5M cap hit? You can't send Ladd, Ottawa isn't going to save any money on such a transaction, since Ladd is still owed 8M and is completely useless, whereas Ottawa would still need to spend 4-6M just to replace Ryan's production.

What about Matheson? Apparently the Panthers are trying to cut salary. He's owed 25M or so over 6 years. He's still got a 4.875M cap hit though so even if the Islanders end out Boychuk for Matheson It only "saves" the Islanders 1.125M in cap and adds a bunch of years. It doesn't help the Islanders at all.

I've gone though a bunch of rosters. Ryan, Matheson, Vlasic, etc.. plenty of teams trying to cut salary, plenty of players, just not a lot of situations were you can dump cap hit AND have a team trying to cut salary and make it worthwhile.

 

[CREW99AW]

Probably the opposite. It doesn't help a team to cut salary to by adding a terrible player making millions like the Islanders want to ditch. In a normal offseason, you'd have 29 other teams to consider sending your trash. This offseason will have less potential buyers which makes it harder no matter which way you slice it.

The only real advantage of this season is that the Isles (assuming they aren't on a budget) can leverage the situation by taking back big (terrible) contracts with lots of money owed in exchange for their terrible contracts with less money owed. Unfortunately, there simply isn't a lot of big money contracts out there with a cap hit the Islanders can afford.

Take Bobby Ryan for instance. He's still owed 13M over the next 2 years. I'm sure Ottawa would like to get rid of the money, but how are the Islanders going to find a way to take on his 7.5M cap hit? You can't send Ladd, Ottawa isn't going to save any money on such a transaction, since Ladd is still owed 8M and is completely useless, whereas Ottawa would still need to spend 4-6M just to replace Ryan's production.

What about Matheson? Apparently the Panthers are trying to cut salary. He's owed 25M or so over 6 years. He's still got a 4.875M cap hit though so even if the Islanders end out Boychuk for Matheson It only "saves" the Islanders 1.125M in cap and adds a bunch of years. It doesn't help the Islanders at all.

I've gone though a bunch of rosters. Ryan, Matheson, Vlasic, etc.. plenty of teams trying to cut salary, plenty of players, just not a lot of situations were you can dump cap hit AND have a team trying to cut salary and make it worthwhile.

Boychuk is not trash and frankly,you sound like you don't watch him play .

You miss my point. The players Lou would try to move have had almost all their salary paid by the isles. Boychuk is due a total of $2.6m in cash for each the next two seasons.
For a team financially struggling because of the pandemic,a team not wanting to spend actual cash ,they won't care that his cap hit is $6m. Indeed, that type of cap fl trick allows them to reach the fl without extra spending.


Ryan is due $15m in actual cash over the next 2 seasons.
Boychuk 's due $5.2m in actual cash over the next 2 seasons.
Matheson is due $29m in actual cash over the remainder of his contract.

One of those contracts is significantly less in actual cash then the other two.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

Boychuk is not trash and frankly,you sound like you don't watch him play .

You miss my point. The players Lou would try to move have had almost all their salary paid by the isles. Boychuk is due a total of $2.6m in cash for each the next two seasons.
For a team financially struggling because of the pandemic,a team not wanting to spend actual cash ,they won't care that his cap hit is $6m. Indeed, that type of cap fl trick allows them to reach the fl without extra spending.

First off, every team in the NHL will easily be above the cap floor just filling out a roster.

Secondly, although there are teams like Ottawa who will be spending less than 60M in salaries, they have no need to simply add salary to get to the floor. They are above the floor already. Since everyone is above the floor, in order to "save money", they will have to do it like every other team, which is to send out more money in trades than they take back.

That is how we end up back at my original post. Look around if you don't believe me. Who are these players that NJ or Ottawa or Florida can just trade away that make more than 3-4M? They are either too important, or equally toxic as Ladd, Boychuk, etc..

The only players on Ottawa who make enough salary to significantly save them money are Bobby Ryan, Zaitsev, Colin White, and Thomas Chabot. Same goes for teams like NJ. Their cap hit and spending is going to be right around 66-68M. Yeah, they can acquire a guy like Boyhuck/Ladd to cut salary, but the types of players they'd have to send back is Cory Schneider or PK Subban...which doesn't exactly help the Islanders.

Again, the problem is that no matter what team you try and find, there just isn't a way to cut costs.

I'm going to put this on you, find me a contract the Islanders can take back (to save them cap hit) that also saves the receiving team money. Harder than it looks.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

Boychuk is not trash and frankly,you sound like you don't watch him play .

You miss my point. The players Lou would try to move have had almost all their salary paid by the isles. Boychuk is due a total of $2.6m in cash for each the next two seasons.
For a team financially struggling because of the pandemic,a team not wanting to spend actual cash ,they won't care that his cap hit is $6m. Indeed, that type of cap fl trick allows them to reach the fl without extra spending.


Ryan is due $15m in actual cash over the next 2 seasons.
Boychuk 's due $5.2m in actual cash over the next 2 seasons.
Matheson is due $29m in actual cash over the remainder of his contract.

One of those contracts is significantly less in actual cash then the other two.

Your math is wrong. If Boychuk is due 5.2M remaining, then Ryan is due 13M.

How does that help the Islanders? That trade adds to their cap hit. NYI is trying to save cap hits to make room.

Is Ottawa going to retain 50% on Ryan so that NYI saves some cap hit? Is NYI going to want Ryan at 3.75M for Boychuk at 6M? That only saves them 2.25M, not enough to do much and Ottawa would still be spending 12M instead of 13M. I mean, 1M is still a lot of money but is it worth it to just give up their Masterton winning winger who is a big part of their locker room to make a fairly lateral (if not downgrade) talent-wise AND take on an additional 2.25M in cap for two years?

 

[ToDavid]

That's funny considering the players with contract problems needing to be moved weren't signed by Lou.

He's not responsible for the worst of them, but over the last two years he's added $31.5 million in cap through 2022 to players 27 or older while being fully aware of the team's upcoming RFAs. Most of those deals are fine by themselves, but together it's a whole lot of money to older, serviceable but not special players, without forethought for the the upcoming contracts of two of your best players.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Boychuk has a NTC that only lists 8 teams he can be traded to.

Assuming he wants to stay an Islander, the 8 teams he picked will have no room to add a 6M player.

No chance of him waiving for a team like Ottawa. Can't see him waiving at all now that the Isles are a solid playoff team.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

It's $2.6m per for the next 2 seasons, not $5.2m per.
Disagree. $2.6m per for a solid RHD, who brings veteran leadership and will come cheaply will draw interest.
Boychuk's first comment after being dealt from Boston to the isles was " we ( Isles) are a good team".
Don't underestimate what swag and locker room leadership means to a floundering organization.

There is an important caveat to his contract that gets lost when framed this way. He's owed $1.25 mil in salary in 20-21. An acquiring team is then on the hook for $4 mil in salary in 21-22, including a $2.75 mil signing bonus (Link). If the idea is to get a bailout from a team that is cash poor, that aspect to his contract has to be an issue.

 

[CREW99AW]

First off, every team in the NHL will easily be above the cap floor just filling out a roster.

Secondly, although there are teams like Ottawa who will be spending less than 60M in salaries, they have no need to simply add salary to get to the floor. They are above the floor already. Since everyone is above the floor, in order to "save money", they will have to do it like every other team, which is to send out more money in trades than they take back.

That is how we end up back at my original post. Look around if you don't believe me. Who are these players that NJ or Ottawa or Florida can just trade away that make more than 3-4M? They are either too important, or equally toxic as Ladd, Boychuk, etc..

The only players on Ottawa who make enough salary to significantly save them money are Bobby Ryan, Zaitsev, Colin White, and Thomas Chabot. Same goes for teams like NJ. Their cap hit and spending is going to be right around 66-68M. Yeah, they can acquire a guy like Boyhuck/Ladd to cut salary, but the types of players they'd have to send back is Cory Schneider or PK Subban...which doesn't exactly help the Islanders.

Again, the problem is that no matter what team you try and find, there just isn't a way to cut costs.

I'm going to put this on you, find me a contract the Islanders can take back (to save them cap hit) that also saves the receiving team money. Harder than it looks.

NJ has a bad defense and in some ways reminds me of the isles in the days before adding Leddy/Boychuk.
You think NJ does not want or need blueline help ,leadership and playoff experience?

You don't think a cash strapped team like Arizona,shopping OEL and his $8m per, wouldn't prefer a phantom cap hit of $6m,while only paying out $2.6m in actual cash?

 

[Merrrlin]

Boychuk has a NTC that only lists 8 teams he can be traded to.

Assuming he wants to stay an Islander, the 8 teams he picked will have no room to add a 6M player.

No chance of him waiving for a team like Ottawa. Can't see him waiving at all now that the Isles are a solid playoff team.

Melnyk will not pat the 2.75m bonus he's owed anyways. I don't think many teams will.

 

[CREW99AW]

There is an important caveat to his contract that gets lost when framed this way. He's owed $1.25 mil in salary in 20-21. An acquiring team is then on the hook for $4 mil in salary in 21-22, including a $2.75 mil signing bonus (Link). If the idea is to get a bailout from a team that is cash poor, that aspect to his contract has to be an issue.

Press says the 2020-2021 signing bonuses were paid on July 1,2020.
So, Boychuk is owed $1.25m in base salary for 2020-2021.
He will get a signing bonus of $2.75m on July 1,2021 and a base salary of $1.25m for the 2021-2022 season.

 

[hotpaws]

Senile Lou will suffer his moronic contract signings now. Nobody is going to be taking his crappy contracts to bail him out.

Lou didn't sign either Ladd or Boychuk but don't let that stop you from slagging the guy for other people's mistakes .

 

[CREW99AW]

Melnyk will not pat the 2.75m bonus he's owed anyways. I don't think many teams will.

The 2020-2021 bonus has already been paid by the isles.
He is due $1.25m for the 2020-2021 season.

Will Melynk pay $1.25m?

 

[Merrrlin]

The 2020-2021 bonus has already been paid by the isles.
He is due $1.25m for the 2020-2021 season.

Will Melynk pay $1.25m?

I doubt it. Melnyk wouldn't even buy his own child a jacket let alone pay a bonus he doesn't need to.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

The 2020-2021 bonus has already been paid by the isles.
He is due $1.25m for the 2020-2021 season.

Will Melynk pay $1.25m?

His willingness to pay his salary next season is just one part of the equation. That $2.75 mil check he'll have to write next July doesn't go away with a buyout. The rest of the league would probably squeeze the hell out of him if he tries to trade Boychuk ahead of the payment (see the O'Reilly trade).

 

[CREW99AW]

I doubt it. Melnyk wouldn't even buy his own child a jacket let alone pay a bonus he doesn't need to.

Even if it gives his Sens a phantom caphit,that saves him from spending actual millions?

 

[IranCondraAffair]

NJ has a bad defense and in some ways reminds me of the isles in the days before adding Leddy/Boychuk.
You think NJ does not want or need blueline help ,leadership and playoff experience?

You don't think a cash strapped team like Arizona,shopping OEL and his $8m per, wouldn't prefer a phantom cap hit of $6m,while only paying out $2.6m in actual cash?

Look around the league. Everyone is trying to cut salary. There are going to be UFAs this year that sign at 2.6M that are as good as Boychuk without the cap hit.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

He's not responsible for the worst of them, but over the last two years he's added $31.5 million in cap through 2022 to players 27 or older while being fully aware of the team's upcoming RFAs. Most of those deals are fine by themselves, but together it's a whole lot of money to older, serviceable but not special players, without forethought for the the upcoming contracts of two of your best players.

Those are fair points but I'd argue that I don't see Lee, Nelson or Pageau declining any time soon. When it comes to Nelson and Pageau, they're coming off career seasons at 27 and 28 years old. Eberle can't decline anymore than he already has and that's all the contracts Lou signed with term.

Obviously those not special, only serviceable players were pretty vital during this Covid run. Team is still young built from the net out. If anything, out of the last ten or so teams that made it to the finals they were lef by veteran heavy, 25 and older players.

We'll see how the contracts to Barzal, Pulock, Toews, Pelech and Sorokin shape up the next two years. I don't really see an issue. I definitely don't want to be in a situation where every year the roster is completely turned over. No one fields a championship team going that route.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

Even if it gives his Sens a phantom caphit,that saves him from spending actual millions?

There is no phantom cap hit if you are above the floor.

The Sens are above the floor.

The only way it saves you money is if you are BELOW 60M. The Sens will be above 60M, so it doesn't matter. It just adds salary. So unless Ottawa finds a way to get below 60M, it won't matter.

I'm going even a step further and saying there are only two Sens players you can really trade that would actually reduce their salary below the floor. Ryan and Chabot. The Sens will be so far above the floor they need to save a minimum of 3M to get below it. Further, they need about 800K to replace that player with a new roster player.

Only a few players on the Sens who have more than a 3.8M cap hit. Here are each of their remaining salaries: Zaitsev (4.5M), White (4M), Ryan (5.5M), Anisimov (1.5M) and Chabot (7M).

Realistically, one of Chabot or Ryan have to leave to get the Sens below the floor. Anisimov could too but he only makes 1.5M remaining and Zaitsev probably doesn't save enough either.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Those are fair points but I'd argue that I don't see Lee, Nelson or Pageau declining any time soon. When it comes to Nelson and Pageau, they're coming off career seasons at 27 and 28 years old. Eberle can't decline anymore than he already has and that's all the contracts Lou signed with term.

Obviously those not special, only serviceable players were pretty vital during this Covid run. Team is still young built from the net out. If anything, out of the last ten or so teams that made it to the finals they were lef by veteran heavy, 25 and older players.

We'll see how the contracts to Barzal, Pulock, Toews, Pelech and Sorokin shape up the next two years. I don't really see an issue. I definitely don't want to be in a situation where every year the roster is completely turned over. No one fields a championship team going that route.

No team in the NHL has as much cap signed past 2024 as the Islanders do - and not one of them are crucial, 1st line talents at a good age

Theyre all 28+ and middle-6 or worse. Its definitely a problem NY will have to face sooner or later as a top-3 oldest team in the league

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

No team in the NHL has as much cap signed past 2024 as the Islanders do - and not one of them are crucial, 1st line talents at a good age

Theyre all 28+ and middle-6 or worse. Its definitely a problem NY will have to face sooner or later as a top-3 oldest team in the league

$23M on the books for 23-24
$18M on the books for 24-25
$12M on the books for 25-26
All according CapFriendly.

Hardly anything to be concerned about.

As for team age, most of the age comes from role players and the current goalies: Varlamov, Greiss, Boychuk, Komarov, Ladd, Clutterbuck, etc.

You know who is under 30: Barzal, Sorokin, Beauvillier, Pageau, Nelson, all four top-4 defensemen and Dobson.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

$23M on the books for 23-24
$18M on the books for 24-25
$12M on the books for 25-26
All according CapFriendly.

Hardly anything to be concerned about.

As for team age, most of the age comes from role players and the current goalies: Varlamov, Greiss, Boychuk, Komarov, Ladd, Clutterbuck, etc.

You know who is under 30: Barzal, Sorokin, Beauvillier, Pageau, Nelson, all four top-4 defensemen and Dobson.

Yes but how will the Islanders afford Barzal Beau Pelech Pulock in the next two years?

Lamoriello has never, and wont start now, worried about the cap. He just pays guys until he cant anymore and then pushes for the Cup.

The Islanders dont have a lot coming off the next two years but require a lot more to pay young guys.

 

[JTToilinginToronto]

Yes but how will the Islanders afford Barzal Beau Pelech Pulock in the next two years?

Lamoriello has never, and wont start now, worried about the cap. He just pays guys until he cant anymore and then pushes for the Cup.

The Islanders dont have a lot coming off the next two years but require a lot more to pay young guys.

It's not impossible to dump salary/cap in this league, especially with a new expansion team coming in a year's time.

This year, dump Leddy and maybe another minor move or two and there's enough for bridge deals for the three RFAs.

Next offseason, use the 2021 first to dump cap to Seattle. Bridge next years RFAs as well.

In the 2022 offseason, enough cap comes off to sign Barzal, Sorokin and the rest to long term deals. Per CapFriendly, there's over $40M in cap space in the summer of 2022 as things are constructed now.