Speculation: Islanders incoming cap crunch

[IslesNorway]

Yup. This idea of teams struggling to reach the cap floor is nonsensical. It’s never really been a thing and never will be a thing. Boychuck clearly has negative value.

Not at all. it's not about reaching the floor it's about getting free cap. Some team will like that - teams like Ottawa who have next to no players signed a year from now, and who will have to overpay (in real dollars, mind) to even field a half competitive roster. Or any rebuilding team needing to sign free agents (again, to be paid in real money) to fill out their roster. Even if it's not about reaching the floor per se, it's about not having to actually pay what the cap says. Would they like $4.75 million for free or not? There is a reason these deals are structured like they are.

 

[Djp]

Not at all. it's not about reaching the floor it's about getting free cap. Some team will like that - teams like Ottawa who have next to no players signed a year from now, and who will have to overpay (in real dollars, mind) to even field a half competitive roster. Or any rebuilding team needing to sign free agents (again, to be paid in real money) to fill out their roster. Even if it's not about reaching the floor per se, it's about not having to actually pay what the cap says. Would they like $4.75 million for free or not? There is a reason these deals are structured like they are.

Just filling out their team puts them around high $60Zm in cap hits. It has no reason to take on him.

 

[The Real JT]

Boychuk is a cap dump nobody is touching unless you attach a 1st
Many teams do not have the space to just acquire Leddy. It’s more likely for a player coming back and thus not getting a 2nd+ 3-5 round pick. That’s not factoring in the ED where a team isn’t going to trade you a 2nd+ on a player they will expose in the ED.

Cluster#$&@ and Leo don’t carry much interest given their salaries.
Ladd is the immovable object.

The issue with Bailey isn’t now. Had he had just 2 yrs left he’d have good value. The problem is the term left.

The problem is having a flat cap for at least 2 years if not more.

Remember nearly half the league after just filling up their roster by resigning RFAs foraround QO and a few of them at a low expected amount like Barzal on a 2-3 yr bridge at $6M Will be at or over the cap. Another group wont have the cap space to take on $5M cap hit for 2 yrs. other teams are in the same boat in moving salaries. This UFA class..only about 5 players get paid well. Many others get cut in pay.

I have a feeling this offseason there will be a large number of buy outs.

Flipping Boychuk with the requirement that a first round pick is attached is nonsensical.

Besides the cap hit math previously described, he can still play sheltered minutes and is a true leader on and off the ice.

It can be argued the Isles need to retain $ or add a mid round pick but a first rounder is ridiculous.

 

[Diamonddog01]

Not at all. it's not about reaching the floor it's about getting free cap. Some team will like that - teams like Ottawa who have next to no players signed a year from now, and who will have to overpay (in real dollars, mind) to even field a half competitive roster. Or any rebuilding team needing to sign free agents (again, to be paid in real money) to fill out their roster. Even if it's not about reaching the floor per se, it's about not having to actually pay what the cap says. Would they like $4.75 million for free or not? There is a reason these deals are structured like they are.

This is not accurate at all. Ask any Ottawa fan if they need a player like Boychuck to 'help them reach the cap floor or field a half competitive roster.' First of all they don't to acquire any players in regards to the former, and second of all there will be waaaaay better players than a 36 year-old Boychuck. This is just pure wishful thinking completely divorced from the real world.

 

[Shanwhatplan]

The New York Islanders have had good success since Trotz came in to be their coach. And they are doing very well in the playoffs currently, but there is a huge problem coming for them this off-season. They are going to be in a cap crunch with their three best players (Barzal, Toews, Pulock) all becoming RFA's.

You might think looking at their cap space (8.1 million going to the off-season) that they can free up room for their guys and to keep their contention window open, but keeping it open will be near impossible.

Looking at the players locked up, they have five that are realistically movable. But the Isles will need to give up draft capital and/or a few prospects to move them out. Is it really going to be worth gutting the next couple years of youth development? And therefore setting them back after this window? They can keep their blue chips but the organizational depth will seriously struggle if they move a lot of pieces out to clear cap. Not to mention a couple of the guys on this list play top 6/top 4 minutes for their team. And the other guys are depth pieces that help them win games.

(I am going to use how many years are left AFTER this playoff run).
-Bailey (5 Million per, 4 years left)
-Clutterbuck (3.5 Million per, 2 years left)
-Cizikas (3.5 Million per, 1 year left)
-Leddy (5.5 Million per, 2 years left)
-Hickey (2.5 Million per, 2 years left)

The only guys that would not require many if any pieces added on to a trade are Hickey and Cizikas. The other three would need early picks, good prospects, and/or serious cap retention added on to get rid of them.

The Islanders would also need at least 3 teams more than likely to take on these guys. I seriously doubt with a flat cap that teams will take on money unless the Isles REALLY make it worth their while.

If they somehow move all of these pieces, the Isles will than have 28 million total cap space to re-sign the big three of Barzal, Toews, and Pulock who are all core players and hugely important to their team. According to Evolving-Hockey's contract projections (which are historically pretty accurate). Barzal will get 8x9.6M, Pulock will get 5x6.5M and Toews will get 4x4.75M. All in all adding up to around 21 million.

Now this is assuming none of them take a bridge deal, but the term value would be horrible for the Isles. Barzal's possible bridge is projected to be 2x6M or 3x7.5M, he would be a UFA within a couple seasons if he signed that (worst case scenario almost for the Isles cuz then they get no value from him). Similar drop in money for Toews and Pulock (while also giving them UFA rights within 2-3 years, risking Tavares 2.0 with their 3 key core players.)

Evolving-Hockey link (Patreon support is needed to view contract projections): https://evolving-hockey.com/?_inputs_&dir="Home"

Wow, nice post!
Some of us Leaf fans are lamenting having let Lou go. Overall, what are your thoughts on him as GM?

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Barzal takes the $8M cap cushion that the Islanders currently have. Pulock takes the money vacated by a Leddy trade. Other smaller adjustments necessary to fill out the roster, as necessary.

They'll be fine.

And Toews?

And what if a guy like Leddy can only be in a deal made taking a lesser, but by large similar contract back in return?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

And Toews?

And what if a guy like Leddy can only be made in a deal taking less, but by large similar contract back in return?

A possible casualty, but Barzal and Pulock would obviously be the priorities.

Like I said, smaller adjustments as necessary.

 

[CupHolders]

I don’t know... Devils fans how about Boychuck for Schneider? Same cap hit, but less salary.

Boychuck is absolutely still a contributing player (still a top six, great shot and terrific teammate). I apologize sincerely if I’m misreading the situation but Schneider looks done.

Isles buyout Schneider and end-up paying about the same salary wise as retaining Boychuck, but convert the cap hit to 2-mil per for four years.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

A possible casualty, but Barzal and Pulock would obviously be the priorities.

Like I said, smaller adjustments as necessary.

I mention it, because what I cannot see Lou doing is moving (and thus losing) BOTH Leddy and Toews.

I can see plenty of scenarios where either of the two is moved.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Three year bridge for Barzal is perfect. Puts him at age 26. Convincing him to take it would be the toughest part.

Regardless, I expect to hear within three weeks that all three are signed with the Isles being at a cap hit of 86-88 mill with a month or six weeks so to get back down to 81.5.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Three year bridge for Barzal is perfect. Puts him at age 26. Convincing him to take it would be the toughest part.

Regardless, I expect to hear within three weeks that all three are signed with the Isles being at a cap hit of 86-88 mill with a month or six weeks so to get back down to 81.5.

Boy, that'd put Lou's back against the wall on the trade front.

As if any GM would listen to anything but a "Yes, Lou, we'll happily rape you on the trade front in light of your situation." type of deal suggestion.

But hey, it may have to happen one way or another?!

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Boy, that'd put Lou's back against the wall on the trade front.

As if any GM would listen to anything but a "Yes, Lou, we'll happily rape you on the trade front in light of your situation." type of deal suggestion.

But hey, it may have to happen one way or another?!

I either expect they're going to get their asses handed to them via cap dump trade or something totally out of the air is going to occur (like how the alleged Parise deal came out of nowhere). This is Lou we're dealing with.

For all we know he'll "call in a favor" to a GM he has history with and gets out of any cap trouble with relative ease.

Regardless, I'm not that concerned. One, I have no say in the matter and two, every year there's a team whose "up against the wall" when it comes to cap problems and there's usually no dropoff in that team's performance.

We'll see!

 

[Richard88]

What would NYI want for Cizikas? I'd love to see him and Nichuskin together on a lights-out shutdown line.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

What would NYI want for Cizikas? I'd love to see him and Nichuskin together on a lights-out shutdown line.

Doubtul he's traded. I think Lou will try to keep the 4th line together for at least one more year.

It'd be a significant overpay for a 3rd or 4th line center, let's say that.

 

[CREW99AW]

It's too bad Mayfield didn't have a slightly higher cap hit as he's a guy I'd love on the Canucks, but his contract is such a sweetheart deal. Hope that dude fired his agent btw. Wonder if a Boychuk trade could be explored as he has a limited NTC, will probably cost to a lot move him but that would a) free up cap and b) free up a spot for Dobson.

Boychuk's caphit could be a problem for Vancouver. While he is only owed a total of $5.2m over the next 2 seasons, his cap hit remains $6m per.
He is still a solid defender and good locker room guy.

Can Vancouver take on that caphit for a very late pick?

 

[CREW99AW]

Ladd + Komarov + 2021 1st for Parise?

No thanks. That ship has god willing sailed.
The new CBA says a NMC or NTC stays in effect, even after a trade.
Parise and his NMC will have to be protected in the expansion draft.

 

[Richard88]

Doubtul he's traded. I think Lou will try to keep the 4th line together for at least one more year.

It'd be a significant overpay for a 3rd or 4th line center, let's say that.

So what does an overpay look like? 2nd + B/C prospect? Just trying to get an idea

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

What would NYI want for Cizikas? I'd love to see him and Nichuskin together on a lights-out shutdown line.

I agree with PSV.

A little part of me does however think that Lou will move Cizikas and may do so sooner rather than later, because I don't think there's ANY way possible to pay for this man after next season in light of the RFAs this summer and then the RFAs next summer (starting with Pelech and Beauvillier).

Once Barzal gets the contract we all assume he'll be getting, then this team will surely have no less than 17 million tied into its top 3 centers.

And an offer built around Beaucage and Helleson would have to be very enticing to the Islanders.

 

[dlawong]

That doesn't really play this off season.

You do not build or adjust your team for just one season. There are ways to get around cap by making a series of chess move like if they have to, they can let Martin go and replaced him with rookies & trade either Cizikas (who will be coveted by many playoff-contending teams for their 3rd line center) to the Western conference or Clutterbuck to another team needed a good physical PK player. They can rebuild their 4th line but the priority will be keeping their 1st, 2nd and 3rd center intact and hopefully top 3 D. If Leddy gets traded for picks, they can move Toews up. Isles has a good D depth so this is the area of least concern. They also have some prospects who can play on the 4th line next season. There may be a change in the team culture though from a very physical team tough to play against to one that may be a bit more offensive gifted (especially on 4th line).

Ladd has been very injury prone last couple of years & will not take him now to be back to LTIR. Same with JB as well.

Even with talks of offer sheets, reality is that very few GM is willing to go that route because there is risk involved. They can either end up overpaying the player they signed and at the same time tainted their trading relationship with other GMs around the league. Remember the Penner offer sheet? How did that work out for the Oilers and Penner was very good when that offer sheet was made. You also lose a lot of good draft choices one of which can be potentially a superstar with the lottery system. Say if Rags did that 3 years ago they would not have those 3 1st rounders from which 2 of them turned out to be Lav and Kakko, right?

To do offersheet just to put another team in cap trouble will ruin your chance to ever deal with that GM again and remember that GM does not always stay with one team.

 

[CREW99AW]

A possible casualty, but Barzal and Pulock would obviously be the priorities.

Like I said, smaller adjustments as necessary.

I agree. Barzal and Pulock are the higher priorities.
Their 1C and #1 RHD.

 

[Richard88]

I agree with PSV.

A little part of me does however think that Lou will move Cizikas and may do so sooner rather than later, because I don't think there's ANY way possible to pay for this man after next season in light of the RFAs this summer and then the RFAs next summer (starting with Pelech and Beauvillier).

Once Barzal gets the contract we all assume he'll be getting, then this team will surely have no less than 17 million tied into its top 3 centers.

And an offer built around Beaucage and Helleson would have to be very enticing to the Islanders.

I'd be open to include Beaucage, but RHD is our shallowest position so I don't think Helleson would be available. NYI also have plenty of RHD's themselves in Mayfield, Dobson, Wilde, etc so I don't see why it can't be a forward prospect or pick instead.

 

[Djp]

Islanders need to move salary

What 4 players are on the short get moved?

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

I'd be open to include Beaucage, but RHD is our shallowest position so I don't think Helleson would be available. NYI also have plenty of RHD's themselves in Mayfield, Dobson, Wilde, etc so I don't see why it can't be a forward prospect or pick instead.

It's not bad. Isles fans all know we'd like more darts against the board as far as forward prospects are concerned. Wahlstrom, Bellows and Holmstrom all project to be NHL players but our system has been bare the past year (though I would do the Pageau deal again...and again and again).

 

[dlawong]

Because he knows we will have a few yrs of a flat cap and the isles will have cap space freed up between the expansion draft and several expiring contracts. A short deal for about $6.5/$7m per, then the promise of a bigger deal 2 yrs down the road.
I posted Barzal's comments indicating he is ready to sit down whenever Lou is to get a deal done.

It will come down to see what kind of character Barzal really has. When you have very good potential but not yet proven elite and you are much valued by your team, coach, teammate, fans and not yet have any reason to go somewhere else and just battled with the team all the way to the Eastern Conference final, why would you demand or do something that will ruin your team especially knowing that in a few years that team will have the cap space to give you a fat big contract if you do well and want to stay. If he is extremely selfish, does not enjoy top ice minutes and goes off and sign a big offer sheet with a team out of playoff or have trouble passing 1st round, then would you really be A good teammate for that team down the road?

Also remind you that he also has a brand new state of the art new arena to play in 2 years and a very nice place to live during the season (close to NYC with beach closeby) and great ownership, GM and coach staff to support him over his young careers. Stay with the Isles and grow with the team that highly values you and brought you here. When you turn UFA should you badly desire to be closed to hometown Vancouver when you have family, go sign a big UFA contract with Seattle.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I don’t know... Devils fans how about Boychuck for Schneider? Same cap hit, but less salary.

Boychuck is absolutely still a contributing player (still a top six, great shot and terrific teammate). I apologize sincerely if I’m misreading the situation but Schneider looks done.

Isles buyout Schneider and end-up paying about the same salary wise as retaining Boychuck, but convert the cap hit to 2-mil per for four years.

I think I’d make that trade. Cory is done. Boychuk would be an expensive but decent 3rd pairing dman behind Subban and Severson.