Post-Game Talk: Islanders 4, Penguins 3 - Well That Sucks

[Mr Jiggyfly]

Kuemper is out there supposedly to be had so I do think we can improve the goaltending position...I think, as you know, it’ll be a lot easier to change goalies than get Letang or some of the less experienced players to make fewer mistakes lol...we’ve seen this puppy for too long....we don’t have that many players to change and the coach appears to be going nowhere...it’s also unrealistic to think anyone new coming in is going to make less mistakes...it’s also appearing unrealistic to think there will be a coaching change early enough in this shortened season to affect a wholesale change in our defensive structure...what we can do now before the season is lost is try to get another goalie

I don’t see any other goalie that they can realistically get fixing anything.

Maybe they grab a minimum wage guy off the back end of someone’s roster and he catches fire, but it won’t carry them for long.

If that works, great. All I care about is Minny not getting a high pick. My expectations beyond that aren’t very high.

They don’t even have a legit GM to find a decent goalie right now though.

Guys just have to start playing smarter, more disciplined hockey. The system doesn’t matter nearly as much as people think if players aren’t doing these very basic, but very necessary thing.

They could play a 1-2 delay and trap it up and they would still find ways to lose just like this if guys aren’t playing sound hockey.

 

[Pens x]

Kuemper is out there supposedly to be had so I do think we can improve the goaltending position...I think, as you know, it’ll be a lot easier to change goalies than get Letang or some of the less experienced players to make fewer mistakes lol...we’ve seen this puppy for too long....we don’t have that many players to change and the coach appears to be going nowhere...it’s also unrealistic to think anyone new coming in is going to make less mistakes...it’s also appearing unrealistic to think there will be a coaching change early enough in this shortened season to affect a wholesale change in our defensive structure...what we can do now before the season is lost is try to get another goalie

And he made the all star game last year, and we all know how important that is to some posters around here when they blindly defend Jarry. The all star appearance is often used to deflect blame.

We could have two 2020 all star goalies.

 

[pistolpete11]

I don't agree with holding on to Hornqvist like grim death when he wasn't being used correctly here. I'm happy for what he's doing in Florida but I'm not convinced his time wasn't up here, regardless.

But even with his contract status, age and injuries I would have hoped they could have done better than Matheson, yeah. I just choose to keep my fingers crossed that he can figure it out because that's the only way out of all that now.

Yeah, that's the thing. I can understand wanting to move on from Hornqvist even if I disagree with it, but if Matheson was the best return, wait for something better to come along. Even with being used improperly, Hornqvist was still productive last year and is still a better option to play in the top 6 than E-Rod. People can post whatever analytic charts they want showing he's an average player, but I'd take average over the schlubs they have on L4, too. Tanev is fine on L3, but he'd be better on L4 and might be able to give that line some life.

Hopefully he figures things out enough to at least make Dumo or Petts expendable for something else, but it's just that. A hope.

 

[vodeni]

If McCann is out for next game and ZAR is back, I’d like to see Sceviour in over Lafferty. I’d also like to see O’Connor in McCann’s spot to see what he can do with better line mates. I’d also put Weber in for Ruhwedel, hisbolay seems to diminish when he’s played too much. I thought Malkin and Kapanen showed some chemistry last night.

Guentzel Crosby Rust
Zucker Malkin Kapanen
O’Connor Blueger Tanev
Aston-Reese Jankowski Sceviour

Joseph Letang
Matheson Marino
Weber Ceci

this lafferty experiment has to stop. The guy is not an NHL player, neither is O'Connor at least not yet...get some seasoned veterans, grinders on that 4th line, since Cullen all out 4th line centers must have been the softes motherf***ing players in NHL...Jank won't cut it, he is what they told us he is...the only proven NHL 4th liner Sceviour is benched so they can show how smart they are and use those shiny new toys....with this kind of schedule they have to find productive or at least neutral 4th line

 

[Andy99]

I don’t see any other goalie that they can realistically get fixing anything.

Maybe they grab a minimum wage guy off the back end of someone’s roster and he catches fire, but it won’t carry them for long.

If that works, great. All I care about is Minny not getting a high pick. My expectations beyond that aren’t very high.

They don’t even have a legit GM to find a decent goalie right now though.

Guys just have to start playing smarter, more disciplined hockey. The system doesn’t matter nearly as much as people think if players aren’t doing these very basic, but very necessary thing.

They could play a 1-2 delay and trap it up and they would still find ways to lose just like this if guys aren’t playing sound hockey.

Lol

 

[ChaosAgent]

you can compare his performance to Varlamov's last nght. Vary faced more point blank excellent chances last night and somehow won the game...

Varly made 4 great saves - looking back at the game highlights. It was interesting to watch and actually assess the quality of chances the Penguins get vs. the opposition team.

1) The partial glove save on Bleuger at 13:02 in the first. He came way out and made himself big. I feel like Jarry would have also had this one but still nice save.

2) Stopping Rust's stuff attempt at 1:10 in the first. This is where I'm really curious about the xG. Letang whips a cross-ice pass to Rust (brilliant pass) and he has an empty net. Issue is that he's semi-handcuffed and he puck is moving really fast. Trying to one-time it is a possible flub but corralling it gives Varly plenty of time to get back into position. It wasn't an easy chance to bury but ultimately I think this was a Rust error more than a Varly great save.

3) The backhand-forehand save on Crosby at 14:50 in the second. IMO his best, he used the poke check to disrupt Crosby and not allow him to elevate the puck. Nice play by Varly.

4) The Kapanen-Malkin low to high at 2:59 in the second where Malkin tried to go 5 hole. I guess this is one where he did better than Jarry, but for Geno was 5-hole really the play there? He was alone and IMO could have deked. Whatever xG said, I think Geno's choice of trying to go 5-hole from 15 feet out instead of handling the puck reduced it more than what Varlamov did.

There wasn't anything after that.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Yeah, that's the thing. I can understand wanting to move on from Hornqvist even if I disagree with it, but if Matheson was the best return, wait for something better to come along. Even with being used improperly, Hornqvist was still productive last year and is still a better option to play in the top 6 than E-Rod. People can post whatever analytic charts they want showing he's an average player, but I'd take average over the schlubs they have on L4, too. Tanev is fine on L3, but he'd be better on L4 and might be able to give that line some life.

Hopefully he figures things out enough to at least make Dumo or Petts expendable for something else, but it's just that. A hope.

I have a hard time arguing against all that. Especially right now.

Also (and this is not aimed at you at all) just to touch on the idea that the Penguins might be best served oversimplifying and going straight north/south or whatever... careful what you wish for. If you liked POJ's goal last night you are an enemy of that kind of hockey -- Guentzel should have just dumped it there, after all.

 

[ChaosAgent]

#17 has the puck (yes, the one with the empty net) and it doesn't result in a goal because he can't corral it. Yeah he tries a stuff attempt and it's a chance later and the goalie makes a pretty good save, but I'd say this is a negative-value play from Rust all in all. Just saying. If that's Eberle it's in the net.

 

[vodeni]

View attachment 393712

#17 has the puck (yes, the one with the empty net) and it doesn't result in a goal because he can't corral it. Yeah he tries a stuff attempt and it's a chance later and the goalie makes a pretty good save, but I'd say this is a negative-value play from Rust all in all. Just saying. If that's Eberle it's in the net.

you can skin that cat many ways...and you are onto somthing here no question, however, for example if Jarry comes out a foot on that first goal and make himself bigger, that Eberly shot hits his shoulder or make eberle overshoot...My intention was not to simplify this issue, it really is nuanced and I ahve been big proponent actually watching what happens, but somehow watching Jarry he just seems out of position so many times for no reason, very small between the pipes and giving up all kinds of rebounds...anyways this does not absolve by any stretch our dman...that PK for example...horrendous PK, open shot, still somehow leave a little bit of hope that puck would be better controlled by the goalie and that dman would make sure that their guy would be boxed out...

 

[ChaosAgent]

you can skin that cat many ways...and you are onto somthing here no question, however, for example if Jarry comes out a foot on that first goal and make himself bigger, that Eberly shot hits his shoulder or make eberle overshoot...My intention was not to simplify this issue, it really is nuanced and I ahve been big proponent actually watching what happens, but somehow watching Jarry he just seems out of position so many times for no reason, very small between the pipes and giving up all kinds of rebounds...anyways this does not absolve by any stretch our dman...that PK for example...horrendous PK, open shot, still somehow leave a little bit of hope that puck would be better controlled by the goalie and that dman would make sure that their guy would be boxed out...

I get your frustration. 2 of the Isles goals were scored on rebounds right in front of the net. On the first one Jarry makes a good save. On the second he lets it leak through and they get there first. Not great by Jarry. But also, 2 goals scored from...5 feet of the net.

For xG are those rebounds counted as 1 or 2 chances?

We can also debate the Clutterbuck goal some more but I'll only bring it up again to say that it was yet another goal scored from 3 feet away. All 3 Penguins goals were scored from 15-25 feet away. Hm.

 

[ColePens]

For everyone shitting on our goalies, are u watching this flyers caps game

 

[Andy99]

For everyone shitting on our goalies, are u watching this flyers caps game

I was thinking the same thing...however, it’s less usual for the Caps rookie and for Hart to get beaten this easily in most games than it has been for Jarry unfortunately

 

[Bingo71]

Hart is getting shelled by a team that, you know, actually shoots the puck...

 

[ncm7772]

I also find it kinda funny that people say "but DeSmith is bad too, which means it's the fault of team defense", when:

1. Jarry should be held to a way higher expectation than "on par with DeSmith" because he's paid 3x as much as DeSmith
2. DeSmith wasn't even that good in the AHL last year, so he's not even a guaranteed NHL goalie
3. Jarry has been sizably worse than DeSmith has this year. DeSmith hasn't been great, he's given up 3.5 more goals than expected based on his chances (10.5 xGA and 14 aGA), but that's not terrible. Jarry is at 10.5 more goals against than expected (14.51 xGA and 25 aGA)
4, Even using simple numbers, DeSmith (.882 save%) is closer to the league average save% (around .905) than he is to Jarry (.857 save%)

Yes.
Yes.
Yes.
Yes.

I think goalies only get criticized here when they kill Yinzer Jesus.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Wait... Jarry has a .857 save percentage? That's real?

 

[Turin]

For everyone shitting on our goalies, are u watching this flyers caps game

And those goalies will still have better results than Jarry so far after this game.

 

[vodeni]

I get your frustration. 2 of the Isles goals were scored on rebounds right in front of the net. On the first one Jarry makes a good save. On the second he lets it leak through and they get there first. Not great by Jarry. But also, 2 goals scored from...5 feet of the net.

For xG are those rebounds counted as 1 or 2 chances?

We can also debate the Clutterbuck goal some more but I'll only bring it up again to say that it was yet another goal scored from 3 feet away. All 3 Penguins goals were scored from 15-25 feet away. Hm.

There are so many issues each team faces on a regular basis...our dman under Sully have never been very good at boxing opponent out, it was our suffocating forecheck and NZ play that minimized those opportunities...btw our forwards have zero desire to park in front of the goalie hence we can't even compare to the other teams valiant defensive effort.

The other thing before I forget....for example Clutterback's goal...no question its Letang who leaves him all by himself there and thats vintage Tanger...so Clutt is there 5 feet all by himself...in reality what is the probability that he scores....100%? 90% 80% 20% 10%...you expct your goalies to make most of the saves in the shootouts, why would not you expect him to make that save...who actually has better chance there...clutts to score or Jarry to make a save...I'd say the probabilities are on Jarry's side considering Clutts being 4th liner limited skill guy and Jarry being an all star...I am purposelly mudding water here because when it comes to goaltending on teams that have chance to win BIG and ALL, the goalies 9 out of 10 times make that save...

 

[Ugene Magic]

Hand waving away analytics because you don't like what they say isn't a legitimate argument.

Again, we actually have some stats that can evaluate these things. These stats say Jarry has been far away the worst starting goalie in all of hockey this year. If you're only stopping 6.5 out of 10 high danger shots against, when the league average is 8.1 of 10 high danger shots against, you're doing a terrible job. This isn't even a technical critique of Jarry, which you can certainly make (he's playing small as hell right now and his rebound control has been awful), this is just a statistical one.

The defense of Jarry in here sounds like people blaming the fielders for a pitcher having an ERA of 5.75 on the year, when his FIP (fielding independent pitching) is like 5.5. Sure, maybe the defense is making his numbers a little bit worse, but he's the primary driver for being bad.

It's not hand waving them away when put to it's actual use of being married to the eye test and at times they will not come to an equal conclusion.

I will say letting up 10 high danger chances per game is absurd. For any team. Especially when a lot are at your doorstep. It's poor defensive style/systematically, insane, to expect a goaltender to deal with such poor play constantly. Eventually you end up with like "battlefield shellshock" It's why each and every goaltender that has gone through here looks like a mess. That's not to say they don't eventually end up with issues themselves considering that, a lot of goalies have gone through this at some point. This team is not currently built upon a defensive first system. Maybe they should put more effort to defense than offense and work from there.

Baseball is a terrible analogy comparison. The Pitcher is not the last line of defense. He is the first. He would be liken to the center who takes the faceoff. The control of initial play.

Nobody is absolving him of bad play, but all bad play isn't exactly all on his shoulders to bare. Last night, the only goal he should of had was the PPG against, and he did at first. But blame should also be put on TB for creating the PK, and a poor diamond defense that created the good opportunity with no real depression of the one-time shot going from side to side where he was completely being blocked from net front presence to sliding across in a fast manner. Not locking up the man in front is more reason why the goal was scored. Players didn't play to the whistle and assumed he's got it. He doesn't have eyes in the back of his head, though, you'd assume he would close up and possibly stop that puck from leaking out.

The rest is completely on the players in front of him.

Goal #1 is on Ceci too far out of position. Great backhand shot
Goal #2 is on Crosby and his over pursuit. D-man blocking view of the shot
Goal #3 is on Letang for waiting too long to decide on what to do and leaving a man free in front.
Goal#4 is on TB for the OTG PK and a poor system setup. "Diamond defense" No net front coverage. 2 guys left uncontested.

That's just on the goals scored. Count up the amount of more that did get saved. It's really not just the amount of high danger shots but where they are taken. High danger shots can come from out a little further. He's seeing them from the hashmarks in, constantly, with little to no help.

So... the list looks like this.

Coaching.
System.
Players. Forward and defense.
Opposing players who's high danger success rate could be even higher if it were not for their own failure to convert easy chances and flubbed them.
Goaltending.

In that order.

You take care of those and goaltending will not be an issue. If you consider working from the goal out then you will not get very far considering the issue don't start there.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

So Tristan Jarry has a friggin .857 save percentage and people are like "dOn'T BlAme TeH GoAlerz!"

I had no idea it was that bad. The worst defense ever conceived doesn't explain that away. An entire defense of Jack Johnsons and Ian Morans don't explain that away. This fanbase is weird about it's goaltenders.

 

[Gurglesons]

So Tristan Jarry has a friggin .857 save percentage and people are like "dOn'T BlAme TeH GoAlerz!"

I had no idea it was that bad. The worst defense ever conceived doesn't explain that away. An entire defense of Jack Johnsons and Ian Morans don't explain that away. This fanbase is weird about it's goaltenders.

He is the worst goalie by standard and advance metrics.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

He is the worst goalie by standard and advance metrics.

So what you're saying is that this is all Letang's fault?

 

[ChaosAgent]

Baseball is a terrible analogy comparison. The Pitcher is not the last line of defense. He is the first. He would be liken to the center who takes the faceoff. The control of initial play.

Thank you for this. Swing and a miss on this metaphor.

The average team's defense counts like $25M against the cap (I wish capfriendly had a way to break this down but alas no). The average goaltending is...what, $6M?

The market knows what is more influential on a team's goals against.

None of this is to say that Jarry shouldn't be better.

 

[SEALBound]

this lafferty experiment has to stop. The guy is not an NHL player, neither is O'Connor at least not yet...get some seasoned veterans, grinders on that 4th line, since Cullen all out 4th line centers must have been the softes motherf***ing players in NHL...Jank won't cut it, he is what they told us he is...the only proven NHL 4th liner Sceviour is benched so they can show how smart they are and use those shiny new toys....with this kind of schedule they have to find productive or at least neutral 4th line

I'm a little torn here. Lafferty wasn't great last game, no doubt but we shouldn't be winning or losing games based on Lafferty. He's not the greatest but far from the issue. I've thought DOC has been great in the time and role he's been given. Problem is, when you put 3 4th liners together, you have a legitimate 4th line caliber 4th. What we want is a 3rd line caliber 4th line. But looking at the roster and taxi squad, there are not better options. Again, while Sceviour may be a pinch better than those two, Lafferty is faster and DOC is providing better play (IMHO) so I don't see this as "put Sceviour in, fix issues". When it comes to the 4th line, we have who we have. Just like any team wanting to win, their players have to play a game that limits mistakes and creates chances. That's what we need from them - better play, not new players. Angello coming in isn't magically fixing anything. ERod coming back? Same.

What we need to do right now, is weather the storm. Get guys healthy. I'm a little curious to see what ZAR can provide before I get crazy on the trade front. Sceviour, ERod, ZAR, Lafferty...they may all have 4th line player value. We may be able to find another team to do a crap for crap swap but that said, they may be able to provide something. ZAR-Jank-Scevs could be a decent line. Should be better defensively no doubt.

For everyone shitting on our goalies, are u watching this flyers caps game

And I love it. I'm such a biased, selfish bunshole when it comes to hockey. I want tight defensive hockey with excellent goaltending to limit goals against when it's the Penguins...ANY other teams, I love watching these offensive explosions. Great game as a pre-game.

 

[Gurglesons]

So what you're saying is that this is all Letang's fault?

I mean, the goal was clearly Letang’s fault. But I find it funny that people criticize Letang in a game where he was on the ice for all three goals for and one goal against at 5v5.

 

[vodeni]

It's not hand waving them away when put to it's actual use of being married to the eye test and at times they will not come to an equal conclusion.

I will say letting up 10 high danger chances per game is absurd. For any team. Especially when a lot are at your doorstep. It's poor defensive style/systematically, insane, to expect a goaltender to deal with such poor play constantly. Eventually you end up with like "battlefield shellshock" It's why each and every goaltender that has gone through here looks like a mess. That's not to say they don't eventually end up with issues themselves considering that, a lot of goalies have gone through this at some point. This team is not currently built upon a defensive first system. Maybe they should put more effort to defense than offense and work from there.

Baseball is a terrible analogy comparison. The Pitcher is not the last line of defense. He is the first. He would be liken to the center who takes the faceoff. The control of initial play.

Nobody is absolving him of bad play, but all bad play isn't exactly all on his shoulders to bare. Last night, the only goal he should of had was the PPG against, and he did at first. But blame should also be put on TB for creating the PK, and a poor diamond defense that created the good opportunity with no real depression of the one-time shot going from side to side where he was completely being blocked from net front presence to sliding across in a fast manner. Not locking up the man in front is more reason why the goal was scored. Players didn't play to the whistle and assumed he's got it. He doesn't have eyes in the back of his head, though, you'd assume he would close up and possibly stop that puck from leaking out.

The rest is completely on the players in front of him.

Goal #1 is on Ceci too far out of position. Great backhand shot
Goal #2 is on Crosby and his over pursuit. D-man blocking view of the shot
Goal #3 is on Letang for waiting too long to decide on what to do and leaving a man free in front.
Goal#4 is on TB for the OTG PK and a poor system setup. "Diamond defense" No net front coverage. 2 guys left uncontested.

That's just on the goals scored. Count up the amount of more that did get saved. It's really not just the amount of high danger shots but where they are taken. High danger shots can come from out a little further. He's seeing them from the hashmarks in, constantly, with little to no help.

So... the list looks like this.

Coaching.
System.
Players. Forward and defense.
Opposing players who's high danger success rate could be even higher if it were not for their own failure to convert easy chances and flubbed them.
Goaltending.

In that order.

You take care of those and goaltending will not be an issue. If you consider working from the goal out then you will not get very far considering the issue don't start there.

let me help you a bit more to make your point, Goals 1 through 4 are also on Sully and Riordan for not being able to coach this team properly and not allow those chances at all, well goals 1 through 4 are even more on FGMJR cause he either kept or recruited those defensive player, wait there is more....its also on Moorehouse Mario etc... for hiring FGMJR...and probably for keeping the franchise in Pittsburgh....we may not care today if that was the case....anyways goaltending is an issue and yes if you have a team that allow less than 20 shots per game and all shots unscreened and from outside, you can put pylon there and not have issues...thats not the point...the point is we need a goalie that make saves at least the ones they like to call timely, we have not had that and there is no way around anyone can spin this

 

[Bingo71]

The issue of not having D men that clear the crease is something that has plagued this team for years. Our players get their asses best into the ice when they get in the slot or the crease, while we allow opposing players to camp out in front of the net and order pizzas.