Is this the last year of the rebuild?

[MBH]

I'm thinking this is the last year where we finish towards the bottom of the league. Once Zadina, Veleno, Cholowski, Seider start playing full time it will start to force older players out like Neilsen and Abby. There will be tons of cap space after this coming season and I can see Yzerman going for a significant piece in free agency. How much longer do you guys think it takes to start being competitive again?

I guess there are two ways to look at it.
One. Have we acquired everything we need to turn this around, already? The answer to that might be yes.
Or two, when do we actually compete again?

On question one, I look at the New York Rangers and wonder, are they done the rebuild? The answer could be yes. They might still miss the playoffs a couple times. But I think they're going to be banging on the door really soon.
So in one sense - the rebuild may be over. In the other sense, it might take a season or two to really prove it (and therefore, they might end up with some really good draft assets as a result that add to their rebuild).

I don't think Detroit has all the pieces we need yet. I think we need dynamic defenseman. Another dynamic forward could have done it.

But based on current pieces, looking at a timeline, i'd look for these 3 things:
1) Development of centers.
We have Larkin. We need another center to reach his level, or close to it. So if that's Veleno, probably 2-3 years. And then we probably need a depth center. Maybe that's Ehn.
2) Development of defense.
Here's the real issue. Hronek should be a fulltime NHLer this year. But despite some promise, he's got some really poor numbers that show he's 2-3 years away from being reliable. Cholowski is probably 3-4, in that case. But both guys might always be iffy. It's hard to know. And that's just two guys.
Lindstrom? Seider? How long before they are reliably/trustworthy enough to take a regular shift for a decent team. McIsaac?
Plus, who are going to be the trustworthy veterans providing stability while the young defense learns? Have you ever seen a defense with 5 young guys all developing well together?
3) Development of goaltenders.
Maybe Larsson's a starter one day. Maybe not. We'll know more this year. But if he's not, I'm not sure we have a reasonable prospect in the organization.

So I think you're looking at 4-5 years of bottom 10 finishes until Seider is ready (if he's the kind of defenseman who changes this team's fortunes).
That means we should have 4-5 more years of top 10ish picks to rebuild with.

So five years from now, we look like this:
C: Larkin, 28. Veleno, 24. Ehn, 26.
LW: Bertuzzi, 29. Athanasiou, 30. Hirose, 27. Rasmussen, 25.
RW: Mantha, 29. Zadina, 24. Svechnikov, 27.
LD: Dekeyser 34. Cholowski 26. McIsaac 24.
RD. Hronek 26. Lindstrom 25. Seider 23.
G: Larson 25.

Plus any other prospects who overtake existing guys.

I think Yzerman could seriously speed this up by trading draft picks/prospects for defense.

Imagine, for example, if the Red Wings won the lottery and drafted Hughes.
Could that have been Yzerman who then instead traded for Subban?
You could have gone into next year with:
Bertuzzi-Larkin-Mantha
AA-Filppula-Hughes
Svechnikov-Nielsen-Hirose
Abby-Glendog-Ehn
Dekeyser-Hronek
Daley-Subban
Ericsson-Green

Does that lineup get us to compete? It probably gets us pretty close, with better goaltending.

But our expansion draft would be problematic on defense.

So maybe as soon as that draft is done, Yzerman takes the gloves off.

 

[saska sault]

I would say next year is the year If... Thats a big if, everything comes together. Larkin continues on pace and develops one more gear, AA, Mantha and Bert stay consistent and some of the younger guys like Zadina, Seider, Cholo and Hronek take a big leap in development and we can find some solid goaltending that year, we could maybe compete for a wild card... Now that's a best case scenario. I would imagine the following year is when lots of money is off the books, we can make a play or two in the free agent market and some trades that we will start to really see an up swing in the standings.

My hope is the next year or two we just see steady development, maybe some lottery luck, and a couple prospects really take off and surprise us. Enjoy the youth movement, and watching the kids grow and develop together.

 

[dj4aces]

I'd like to think this is the end, but I'm not going to get my hopes high. If we make the playoffs, that's wonderful, but I kinda expect to be in the league's bottom ten again this year.

 

[Henkka]

You win the lottery and the rebuild will end. As long as we won't win and any other guy doesn't do Petterson-like jump to stardom from ~5th overall or lower, the rebuild continues.

When it will end, then it's time, at same summer, to "trade for Subban", "sign Gusev" and other great free market pieces from the cap-problem teams.

It could be next summer. It could be not.

 

[lilidk]

Worst is behind, we supposed to be better going forward. Next draft I hope will be last to get high end prospects. Possible top six we get in 3-4 years:
Zadina, Veleno, Svechnikov, Rasmussen ,Berggren,Kivenmaki, Philips, Mastrosimone, Tutyaev, 2020 first round pic. On defence side it's just impossible to project. I can see only Hronek as solid defenseman. We need one more year because next year it supposed to be the best draft year in years

 

[GMR]

You win the lottery and the rebuild will end. As long as we won't win and any other guy doesn't do Petterson-like jump to stardom from ~5th overall or lower, the rebuild continues.

When it will end, then it's time, at same summer, to "trade for Subban", "sign Gusev" and other great free market pieces from the cap-problem teams.

It could be next summer. It could be not.

How come that isn't working for Edmonton or Buffalo?

 

[Peter Tosh]

Yzerman’s updating conditioning and training could have huge effects. I’m looking forward seeing how players develop with higher physical standards. Mantha, AA and Bert are having contract years and will therefore probably have stronger than usual performances. I expect the team to finish higher than last season, but defense is still too weak to make the playoffs. I hope Yzerman finds a way to get some quality D in a trade for AA

 

[PullHard]

It is dependent on the development of our D prospects, IMO

 

[deca guard]

It is dependent on the development of our D prospects, IMO

truer words never spoken

 

[NickH8]

Plus, who are going to be the trustworthy veterans providing stability while the young defense learns? Have you ever seen a defense with 5 young guys all developing well together?

This is a really good point. DeKeyser as the only vet going forward is not acceptable. Wouldn't surprise me to see Yzerman go hard after Krug or some other veteran defenseman who can actually play (not a Daley type) for this reason.

 

[ShelbyZ]

For the rebuild to really be over, several players would have to really make strides or find a fountain of youth and/or someone like Seider or Kaski would have to step in and basically the second coming of Bobby Orr...

That said, I think there are a few factors that could push this team into the playoffs or at least the WC mix:

-Last season, prior to the Jensen trade, in the 35 games where Green was in the line up and the D was either completely healthy (only 6 games) or missing only one regular Dman (29 games), the team went 18-13-4 and .571 in points. That pace for a whole season would've put them over 90 pts and just outside of a playoff spot. Is it possible a healthy Green as well as an overall healthier D puts the team in or closer to the playoffs?

-To add to that last one, Hronek only dressed for 4 of those 35 games. Is it reasonable to expect that a healthy Green and full time regular Hronek getting top 4 ice time could increase the offensive output of a team that was 10th worst in GF?

-Arguably the teams 3 best wingers, Mantha, AA and Bertuzzi are all in contract years on expiring bridge deals. I'd have to think all 3 would like to step it up to get a decent raise and term out of their remaining RFA years.

-Jimmy Howard's new contract gives him a $1.1M bonus if the team makes the playoffs, and he's been surprisingly healthy the past 2 seasons. Could he be motivated to put in another season like he started in 16-17?

-Blashill's probably aware that he's basically on a one year tryout for Yzerman to see if he's worth hanging onto, or he's trying to stay relevant enough to land another NHL gig if Yzerman goes in a different direction.

-What if Yzerman decides half way through that Blashill isn't the guy and the team goes on some Berube Blues tear under a new guy for the rest of the season?

-Obviously there isn't going to be enough room to keep a lot of guys that have had extended tastes of the NHL on the main roster. What if someone like a Zadina/Hirose/Svechnikov/Rasmussen/Cholowski/etc. gets sent down to GR, but then comes up when injuries mount and goes on some 13-14 Gustav Nyquist tear at the NHL level for the rest of the year?

I just have a feeling this team won't be the lottery disaster that a lot of people are expecting (and/or hoping for).

 

[Frk It]

Too many variables to to say. Certain things could expedite it. Certain things could drag it out. Lots of this is up in the air right now.

Hronek and Zadina taking their respective next steps and realizing potential is huge. I think Zadina is going to make the team and surprise some people this year.

But then you have Veleno, Seider, McIsaac, Berggren, etc who are complete wildcards until we at least see them in the AHL.

2020 Draft is looking good. Lafreniere and Byfield would catapult this thing, as @The Zetterberg Era mentioned earlier. I also am a big fan of Hendrix Lapierre early on here. Complete centerman with a good skill level. Could see him forming a good 1-2 punch with Larkin like what Boston has ran for awhile now. We will have options, but obviously we want a top 2/3 pick soon ideally. We have seen this elevate many teams out of our current position.

 

[lilidk]

How come that isn't working for Edmonton or Buffalo?

It doesn't working because they don't develop prospects they just throwing them into the fire, just like many here wanted to see happened to our kids

 

[Ricky Bobby]

It will be at least two more years of being a bottom feeding team.

The D group is awful as of today and will take time to develop.

Hronek, Cholowski and Seider all have bright futures but won't all be ready to be quality top 4 or even top 6 type Dman until after next season.

 

[LarKing]

Honestly we’re in an ideal spot for tanking still. Defense will be awful for another year or two at least. Cholo and Hronek should improve but won’t be enough to make us a good team.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Nope

Havent even hit rock bottom yet

 

[ArGarBarGar]

This team isn't even sniffing the end of its rebuild until we get a defensive core that we can actually be proud of.

Cholo and Hronek are promising, but not at a level where we can say "yeah these guys are going to be a major staple on our roster and help us win a cup."

 

[Hammettf2b]

Nope

Havent even hit rock bottom yet

I have a hard time believing this team finishes below 73 points. I think the team is on the upswing from here on out.

 

[Winger98]

I think this will be the last of the truly awful years. Even if the Wings don't win the lotto, they're going to start bringing in too much decent young talent to stay at the bottom, imo. they might get another high pick or two after 2020 just from Draft Luck (at some point the hockey gods could be nice to us, anyway) but they will be unlikely to walk into the draft with the odds of a bottom5 team in their favor.

If they are legitimately awful beyond this season, then we'll be seeing some guys (Mantha, Athanasiou, Cholowski) dealt for futures and stunting the team growth or a number of guys just failing to live up to expectations.

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

With the state of the defense, I really think this is year one of the rebuild. Holland sold guys on expiring contracts but be never bought into a rebuild mentality. They would need to get really lucky with a lot of guys to get a roster that could win a round in the playoffs. The team has a good group of forwards, but the defense is terrible and they have no real surefire top-pair defenders on the shelf. Lucking into a first overall pick will likely shave a year off but I don't see the league allowing Detroit into the top two. Yzerman's approach this summer was not that of a GM who expects to be a playoff contender within a season. I think you are looking, at best, at playoffs in 2022. Two more seasons of missing the playoffs.

 

[YpsiWings]

With the state of the defense, I really think this is year one of the rebuild. Holland sold guys on expiring contracts but be never bought into a rebuild mentality. They would need to get really lucky with a lot of guys to get a roster that could win a round in the playoffs. The team has a good group of forwards, but the defense is terrible and they have no real surefire top-pair defenders on the shelf. Lucking into a first overall pick will likely shave a year off but I don't see the league allowing Detroit into the top two. Yzerman's approach this summer was not that of a GM who expects to be a playoff contender within a season. I think you are looking, at best, at playoffs in 2022. Two more seasons of missing the playoffs.

You are contradicting yourself about Holland not buying into a rebuild, acquiring as many draft picks as he did in the last few years is exactly that.

I just don’t see how this is year one of the rebuild, it looks like the supporting cast is pretty much assembled. Building depth takes a lot of time. Granted they are missing an elite piece or two, and that is the hardest part to achieve. But with a little luck, or someone like Hronek/Seider Zadina/Veleno exceeding expectations this rebuild is much closer to over than just starting.

 

[MBH]

You are contradicting yourself about Holland not buying into a rebuild, acquiring as many draft picks as he did in the last few years is exactly that.

I just don’t see how this is year one of the rebuild, it looks like the supporting cast is pretty much assembled. Building depth takes a lot of time. Granted they are missing an elite piece or two, and that is the hardest part to achieve. But with a little luck, or someone like Hronek/Seider Zadina/Veleno exceeding expectations this rebuild is much closer to over than just starting.

The defense and goaltending are the big issues right now.
Forward wise, the Zadina, Svechnikov, Rasmussen and Hirose put us very close to being ready. Probably 2 years.
But our defense?
That's a lot more complicated. The Red Wings used one first in 12 years on defensemen. And it shows.

Not only that, it takes more time, usually, to develop defense.

I look at a team like the Flyers and wonder if that's the direction the Red Wings are heading.
Giroux. Couturier. Voracek. Konecny. Van Riemsdyk. Patrick. Simmonds. Laughton. Lindblom.
That's a decent group of forwards.

On defense: Gostisbehere. Sanheim. Provorov. Hagg. That's four good to great young guys. Along with Gudas and a collection of guys.

The Flyers have some serious young talent on their blueline. Yet their defense sucks. Provorov is a real, elite talent. And he went -16 last year.

Granted, Hakstoll was a terrible coach.

 

[ShelbyZ]

This is a really good point. DeKeyser as the only vet going forward is not acceptable. Wouldn't surprise me to see Yzerman go hard after Krug or some other veteran defenseman who can actually play (not a Daley type) for this reason.

No wonder Yzerman kept Blashill around... Notes: Blashill and Boston's Krug have strong connection

In the same vein, depending on his health this coming season, I wouldn't be surprised if Green is back in the fold for 20-21 as well. Whether it's because Yzerman decided not to or couldn't move him at the deadline and extended him, or they moved him as a rental and brought him back as a UFA.

I have to imagine with as particular as Green is about where he's open to play and the looming expansion draft in 2021, he probably doesn't sign for more than a year and likely for less money. Better to go with the devil you know to keep some stability at the position.

Looking at Yzerman's bluelines early in his Lightning tenure, it would be really surprising if at least TWO of Green, Daley, Ericsson or Kronwall (if he returns) aren't either retained or replaced by veteran Dmen.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

I think the answer to the rebuild question can be found in the thread about who the Wings would protect in the expansion draft. It's pretty telling.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I guess there are two ways to look at it.
One. Have we acquired everything we need to turn this around, already? The answer to that might be yes.
Or two, when do we actually compete again?

On question one, I look at the New York Rangers and wonder, are they done the rebuild? The answer could be yes. They might still miss the playoffs a couple times. But I think they're going to be banging on the door really soon.
So in one sense - the rebuild may be over. In the other sense, it might take a season or two to really prove it (and therefore, they might end up with some really good draft assets as a result that add to their rebuild).

I don't think Detroit has all the pieces we need yet. I think we need dynamic defenseman. Another dynamic forward could have done it.

But based on current pieces, looking at a timeline, i'd look for these 3 things:
1) Development of centers.
We have Larkin. We need another center to reach his level, or close to it. So if that's Veleno, probably 2-3 years. And then we probably need a depth center. Maybe that's Ehn.
2) Development of defense.
Here's the real issue. Hronek should be a fulltime NHLer this year. But despite some promise, he's got some really poor numbers that show he's 2-3 years away from being reliable. Cholowski is probably 3-4, in that case. But both guys might always be iffy. It's hard to know. And that's just two guys.
Lindstrom? Seider? How long before they are reliably/trustworthy enough to take a regular shift for a decent team. McIsaac?
Plus, who are going to be the trustworthy veterans providing stability while the young defense learns? Have you ever seen a defense with 5 young guys all developing well together?
3) Development of goaltenders.
Maybe Larsson's a starter one day. Maybe not. We'll know more this year. But if he's not, I'm not sure we have a reasonable prospect in the organization.

So I think you're looking at 4-5 years of bottom 10 finishes until Seider is ready (if he's the kind of defenseman who changes this team's fortunes).
That means we should have 4-5 more years of top 10ish picks to rebuild with.

So five years from now, we look like this:
C: Larkin, 28. Veleno, 24. Ehn, 26.
LW: Bertuzzi, 29. Athanasiou, 30. Hirose, 27. Rasmussen, 25.
RW: Mantha, 29. Zadina, 24. Svechnikov, 27.
LD: Dekeyser 34. Cholowski 26. McIsaac 24.
RD. Hronek 26. Lindstrom 25. Seider 23.
G: Larson 25.

Plus any other prospects who overtake existing guys.

I think Yzerman could seriously speed this up by trading draft picks/prospects for defense.

Imagine, for example, if the Red Wings won the lottery and drafted Hughes.
Could that have been Yzerman who then instead traded for Subban?
You could have gone into next year with:
Bertuzzi-Larkin-Mantha
AA-Filppula-Hughes
Svechnikov-Nielsen-Hirose
Abby-Glendog-Ehn
Dekeyser-Hronek
Daley-Subban
Ericsson-Green

Does that lineup get us to compete? It probably gets us pretty close, with better goaltending.

But our expansion draft would be problematic on defense.

So maybe as soon as that draft is done, Yzerman takes the gloves off.

If we are on that long range of a timeline than Mantha and/or AA are likely casualties of this group not being good enough and are dealt for more assets to assist in the rebuild. If Yzerman is doing a deeper rebuild I expect one to be dealt at the deadline.