Is this the last year of the rebuild?

[Run the Jewels]

Bingo. Anyone saying it's going to take another decade to be remotely competitive (i.e. the point where you aren't actively "trying" for a top 5 pick anymore) is basically conceding that the large majority of the Wings young players/top prospects are going to be huge disappointments/busts.

No. I'm not saying we are going 10 straight years of languishing at the bottom of the standings. We've already got three years of that and what do we have to show for that? One proven top 6 center in Larkin and????

Yzerman isn't going down the Holland path. I know a lot of people view them as being essentially the same but I think it's been made pretty clear that Yzerman has a much different approach than what we saw from Holland for the past 7 or so years. It's clear with regard to North American scouting and it's clear with regard to revamping the strength and conditioning program.

Yzerman has preached patience, which I take to mean he's largely going to build us back up through drafting and development with some actual hockey trades to bring in good players. So yeah, I'm giving him 5 years of drafting and development and a few trades and at that point we see what we have.

At that point we could be a legit Cup contender or our window to compete may be just starting to open.

 

[obey86]

Despite a few years of high picks (for us at least), we aren't close to what some other teams have amassed in terms of young talent IMO.

Larkin is a fine player, but we don't have a McDavid, Matthews, Eichel, Barkov, or really even someone comparable to guys like Marner, Point, or Draisaitl. And then factor in the likely development of guys like Hughes or Kakko.

It's great that we're adding young talent again, but it seems like a number of other teams have added more impactful talent within the timeframe of our own rebuild. In many cases that's due to better lottery luck, no doubt, but I just don't see anything we've done recently that's going to push us ahead of some of the other U-25 cores being assembled around the league.

There's nothing to indicate, outside of Eichel going #2 and Larkin #15 in the draft, that Eichel has a more positive impact on his team than Larkin does. Eichel is definitely more physically gifted than Larkin is (but at the same time is a bit lazy and doesn't give 100% all the time like Larkin does) but until that actually shows up in the on ice results I can't justify saying Larkin isn't in Eichel's tier, even if I concede that Eichel is better.

All the advanced on ice stats from last season indicate that Larkin had a greater on ice impact than Eichel did, while being outscored by just a few points. Not to mention that Larkin is also better defensively, better at faceoffs, and plays with worse linemates than Eichel does.

 

[obey86]

Odds are that's the case though. The only u25 players we can say for sure are impact guys are the 4 forwards who were on the team last year. The truth is the Chicago and Toronto situations where every prospect hits is the exception. Add to that the fact that it will take at least two full seasons for Hronek and Cholowski to be reliable in their own zone (this is the case for 90% of defensemen) and no clear cut goalie for the future and you're looking at 4-6 years instead of 2-3.

And that's fine if you truly believe that.

I'm just saying that if the rebuild isn't going to be over for another decade that means that the current rebuild we are in (with our current prospects/young players) is essentially a failure and 5 years from now we will be restarting the rebuilding process over again with another group of young players/prospects.

Being a competitive team starting a decade from now wouldn't be a continuation of the current rebuild, it would mean we conceded this rebuild was a complete and utter failure and had to start over again.

 

[Frk It]

There's nothing to indicate, outside of Eichel going #2 and Larkin #15 in the draft, that Eichel has a more positive impact on his team than Larkin does. Eichel is definitely more physically gifted than Larkin is (but at the same time is a bit lazy and doesn't give 100% all the time like Larkin does) but until that actually shows up in the on ice results I can't justify saying Larkin isn't in Eichel's tier, even if I concede that Eichel is better.

All the advanced on ice stats from last season indicate that Larkin had a greater on ice impact than Eichel did, while being outscored by just a few points. Not to mention that Larkin is also better defensively, better at faceoffs, and plays with worse linemates than Eichel does.

Eiffel produces at a 73.8 pt pace for his career, Larkin produces at a 54.9 pt pace for his career.

 

[deca guard]

ad1066 and greatoutlaw , larkin is an elite skating selke level shutdown centerman that can hound ANYBODY . that is huge and it doesnt show in point totals which to me is all you guys see . he also can haul the mail with anybody , constantly gets the puck up ice and in the zone making excellent passes but it doesnt show in stats because he has no smart dmen to back him up once he passes to them so his work isnt showing up in assist . but on a junk team he does 30 goals while hauling the mail and hounding enemy centerman into the ground , while having an elite motor on full tilt all 60 minutes where hes ' haulin n houndin ' . the guy is a top 15 centerman easily , ands also a great leader by example .

 

[waltdetroit]

On defense: Gostisbehere. Sanheim. Provorov. Hagg. That's four good to great young guys. Along with Gudas and a collection of guys.

I see what you're saying but Gudas plays for the Caps

 

[Frk It]

Larkin is a big piece for us. That's 1 guy that already outperformed his draft position in a big way. We are probably going to need Veleno to do the same thing, which he is certainly trending in the right direction.

But this is the difficulty in building a team without the top 3/top 5 picks. You have to resort to hoping everyone outperforms their draft position. Which some will... and some won't.

We have some pieces, and most of them are trending in the right way. Still a tough task at hand for everything to hit just right. Really hoping we catch a break in the lottery here, it would be awesome to add a real blue chip/sure thing to all the nice pieces we have been building. I will continue to say I think we have implemented a really good draft strategy under Stevie to find later round gems. Mining USHS/USHL and Euro's after round 1 is absolutely the way to go, IMO. If we continue to do this moving forward, I am pretty confident we will find guys like Stevie did in TB (Point, Palat, etc.)

 

[Hammettf2b]

I was honestly rather shocked by this question. Where is the elite talent needed to open a cup window that would signify the rebuild is over?

I guess we have different views on what a rebuild actually is. I think the worst days are behind this team and only going to get better. To me just because you aren't a cup contender doesn't mean you are rebuilding from being a bottom 5 team.

 

[MBH]

Larkin is a big piece for us. That's 1 guy that already outperformed his draft position in a big way. We are probably going to need Veleno to do the same thing, which he is certainly trending in the right direction.

But this is the difficulty in building a team without the top 3/top 5 picks. You have to resort to hoping everyone outperforms their draft position. Which some will... and some won't.

We have some pieces, and most of them are trending in the right way. Still a tough task at hand for everything to hit just right. Really hoping we catch a break in the lottery here, it would be awesome to add a real blue chip/sure thing to all the nice pieces we have been building. I will continue to say I think we have implemented a really good draft strategy under Stevie to find later round gems. Mining USHS/USHL and Euro's after round 1 is absolutely the way to go, IMO. If we continue to do this moving forward, I am pretty confident we will find guys like Stevie did in TB (Point, Palat, etc.)

Boston, for the most part, is a team that's been built without high picks.
It can be done.
Detroit's had 3 top 10 picks in a row.
Boston has had some top 10 picks.
Hamilton.
Hamill.
Kessel.
Seguin.
Certainly, those picks contributed to Boston's success in way or another.
But it's pretty hard to say they were built with high picks.

 

[Frk It]

Boston, for the most part, is a team that's been built without high picks.
It can be done.
Detroit's had 3 top 10 picks in a row.
Boston has had some top 10 picks.
Hamilton.
Hamill.
Kessel.
Seguin.
Certainly, those picks contributed to Boston's success in way or another.
But it's pretty hard to say they were built with high picks.

Good example. We are going to start to need to be significantly more aggressive on the trade front if this is who we want to emulate, that much I know. Maybe that is part of the decision to bring in Stevie, guess we will see.

Also knowing something can be done is great, that doesn’t however make it easily repeatable. The odds of 1 team drafting Bergeron, Marchand, and Pastrnak where Boston did and having them become what they did is not good at all.

 

[MBH]

Good example. We are going to start to need to be significantly more aggressive on the trade front if this is who we want to emulate, that much I know. Maybe that is part of the decision to bring in Stevie, guess we will see.

Also knowing something can be done is great, that doesn’t however make it easily repeatable. The odds of 1 team drafting Bergeron, Marchand, and Pastrnak where Boston did and having them become what they did is not good at all.

Yep.
But we're on our way, to some degree.
Larkin - 15th
Mantha - 20th
Bertuzzi - 58th
Athanasiou - 110th
That's a nice start at forward.
If, after the last 4 drafts, we don't have enough to draft at forward...

Still, how do measure the impact of Chara, a rare UFA stud defenseman.
When they won, their defense:
Chara: Drafted by Islanders
Seidenberg: Drafted by Flyers
Kaberle: Drafted by Toronto
Ference: Drafted by Pittsburgh
Boychuk: Drafted by Colorado
McQuaid: Drafted by Columbus

 

[obey86]

Eiffel produces at a 73.8 pt pace for his career, Larkin produces at a 54.9 pt pace for his career.

Which is completely irrelevant if we are comparing the caliber of player they are at a single point in time. Unless you think Larkin is going to revert back to a 40 point player why should I care that his earlier seasons, before he greatly improved his game, drag down his career 82 game pace? Last two seasons Larkin is at a 71 point pace while Eichel is at an 83 point pace, hardly a huge difference. Again, Eichel has produced a little more offensively (an average of 1 additional point every 7 games over the last two seasons), while Larkin is superior in most other facets of the game. I don't see that as being on different tiers.

Larkin was very comparable to Eichel last year value wise, and there's nothing in Larkin's underlying numbers to indicate that his season was some sort of fluke. Maybe i'm wrong and Eichel is a 100 point player next year and Larkin reverts back a 60 point guy. Could happen I suppose, but I don't believe that's likely.

I knew i'd get some flaming for my opinion and that's ok. Eichel is obviously an excellent player, but hasn't quite lived up the pre-draft hype (yet anyways) of him being this absolutely dominant night in and night out, top tier player.

 

[obey86]

Boston, for the most part, is a team that's been built without high picks.
It can be done.
Detroit's had 3 top 10 picks in a row.
Boston has had some top 10 picks.
Hamilton.
Hamill.
Kessel.
Seguin.
Certainly, those picks contributed to Boston's success in way or another.
But it's pretty hard to say they were built with high picks.

Boston, San Jose, Winnipeg, St. Louis, Nashville, and Vegas have all done an excellent job of becoming top end teams without having to depend on multiple superstar type lottery picks to make their team competitive.

 

[obey86]

Good example. We are going to start to need to be significantly more aggressive on the trade front if this is who we want to emulate, that much I know. Maybe that is part of the decision to bring in Stevie, guess we will see.

Also knowing something can be done is great, that doesn’t however make it easily repeatable. The odds of 1 team drafting Bergeron, Marchand, and Pastrnak where Boston did and having them become what they did is not good at all.

Said pretty much every team in the last decade who has won the Stanley Cup. Depending on drafting the next Ovechkin, not easily repeatable. Or the next Crosby, not easily repeatable. Or drafting a Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Datsyuk late in the draft, not easily repeatable. Or going from dead last place in the NHL in January to being a Stanley Cup Winner, not easily repeatable. Including Boston, that's 8 of the past 12 Stanley Cup Champions.

It's usually not easily repeatable to win the Cup, no matter which method you use to build the team. I mean, I think our chances of building the next Boston Bruins type team are significantly better than thinking we can hit on the next Crosby/Malkin combo over a two year period or draft a goal scoring winger comparable to the best goal scorer of all time to anchor the team. But that's just me.

 

[newfy]

I doubt it. They could really use one of the top picks this year though. A Lafreniere or Byfield would really kick things into gear but they still need some pieces to really be a consistent playoff threat not even talking about being a contender

 

[Frk It]

Which is completely irrelevant if we are comparing the caliber of player they are at a single point in time. Unless you think Larkin is going to revert back to a 40 point player why should I care that his earlier seasons, before he greatly improved his game, drag down his career 82 game pace? Last two seasons Larkin is at a 71 point pace while Eichel is at an 83 point pace, hardly a huge difference. Again, Eichel has produced a little more offensively (an average of 1 additional point every 7 games over the last two seasons), while Larkin is superior in most other facets of the game. I don't see that as being on different tiers.

Larkin was very comparable to Eichel last year value wise, and there's nothing in Larkin's underlying numbers to indicate that his season was some sort of fluke. Maybe i'm wrong and Eichel is a 100 point player next year and Larkin reverts back a 60 point guy. Could happen I suppose, but I don't believe that's likely.

I knew i'd get some flaming for my opinion and that's ok. Eichel is obviously an excellent player, but hasn't quite lived up the pre-draft hype (yet anyways) of him being this absolutely dominant night in and night out, top tier player.

Flaming? I simply posted something that was 100% factual and offered no opinions on the matter.

It's usually not easily repeatable to win the Cup, no matter which method you use to build the team. I mean, I think our chances of building the next Boston Bruins type team are significantly better than thinking we can hit on the next Crosby/Malkin combo over a two year period or draft a goal scoring winger comparable to the best goal scorer of all time to anchor the team. But that's just me.

This I do agree with, particularly the bolded.

I do also think the new lottery system is flawed, and it will need to be addressed sooner than later.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Maybe a better way to look at it is: they need several guys worthy of a top line/pairing/starting role to lead the way. Right now, they have one. Until that number grows, they aren't going anywhere.

And honestly, several of them don't look like they have the upside to make it happen. Rasmussen, for example, is probably not going to be a first liner. I think we overrate our prospects a bit.

 

[NickH8]

Maybe a better way to look at it is: they need several guys worthy of a top line/pairing/starting role to lead the way. Right now, they have one. Until that number grows, they aren't going anywhere.

And honestly, several of them don't look like they have the upside to make it happen. Rasmussen, for example, is probably not going to be a first liner. I think we overrate our prospects a bit.

This is pretty much it. We shouldn't be counting down the years but the top line players. There's no one way to build a team, all we know is we need young top line players and the best way to get them is through the draft. We just need to be patient while Yzerman builds a culture of winning and continues to draft and develop. There's no predicting when we'll be out of it.

 

[obey86]

Flaming? I simply posted something that was 100% factual and offered no opinions on the matter.



This I do agree with, particularly the bolded.

I do also think the new lottery system is flawed, and it will need to be addressed sooner than later.

Sorry I didn’t mean flaming in a bad way. Just meant it to mean as pushback or disagreement with my opinion. Apologies.

 

[ShelbyZ]

But this is the difficulty in building a team without the top 3/top 5 picks. You have to resort to hoping everyone outperforms their draft position. Which some will... and some won't.

We have some pieces, and most of them are trending in the right way. Still a tough task at hand for everything to hit just right. Really hoping we catch a break in the lottery here, it would be awesome to add a real blue chip/sure thing to all the nice pieces we have been building. I will continue to say I think we have implemented a really good draft strategy under Stevie to find later round gems. Mining USHS/USHL and Euro's after round 1 is absolutely the way to go, IMO. If we continue to do this moving forward, I am pretty confident we will find guys like Stevie did in TB (Point, Palat, etc.)

And just in case that lottery luck never comes, they also need to maximize their kicks at the can outside of the draft:

-Low (or no) cost, low risk, high reward reclamation projects like Bowey or even Samuelsson/Cleary when they first came over
-(If they have room) waiver pick ups that might still have some upside
-College UFA's like Hirose
-Skilled guys that were overlooked in the NHL draft because of their size (Johnson and Gourde for Tampa)
-Keep moving expiring guys to get more draft picks/prospects
-Instead of letting struggling young guys stagnate in the pressbox, flip them for another teams troubled young asset and see if a change of scenery can turn it around

 

[ShippinItDaily]

There's appears to be a definite over-exaggeration going on in this thread as to what this team needs to be competitive again.

Go look at the St. Louis Blues depth chart on CapFriendly on how they acquired most of their team. There will always be players available throughout the league that can be acquired on the cheap. See Ryan O'Reilly last summer or P.K. Subban this year. All you need is cap space and future assets with reasonable possibilities of yielding a positive ROI to pry players like this from teams that are in a tough situation.

After this season, there is going to be a TON of cap space to work with. Mantha could be expensive, but if that's the case then we have ourselves a good problem.

If Zadina and Seider are on track to meet projections and we get a little lottery luck then we are well on our way to being competitive again.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Good example. We are going to start to need to be significantly more aggressive on the trade front if this is who we want to emulate, that much I know. Maybe that is part of the decision to bring in Stevie, guess we will see.

Also knowing something can be done is great, that doesn’t however make it easily repeatable. The odds of 1 team drafting Bergeron, Marchand, and Pastrnak where Boston did and having them become what they did is not good at all.

It's even less likely you can lock up all three guys to insanely team friendly deals like Boston did as well. There are a lot of layers and luck (which we will absolutely need at times as well) that have helped Boston become what they did.

 

[MBH]

There's appears to be a definite over-exaggeration going on in this thread as to what this team needs to be competitive again.

Go look at the St. Louis Blues depth chart on CapFriendly on how they acquired most of their team. There will always be players available throughout the league that can be acquired on the cheap. See Ryan O'Reilly last summer or P.K. Subban this year. All you need is cap space and future assets with reasonable possibilities of yielding a positive ROI to pry players like this from teams that are in a tough situation.

After this season, there is going to be a TON of cap space to work with. Mantha could be expensive, but if that's the case then we have ourselves a good problem.

If Zadina and Seider are on track to meet projections and we get a little lottery luck then we are well on our way to being competitive again.

The Blues got O'Reilly without even giving up Thomas or any of their bluechippers. Buffalo got rammed so hard.

 

[Winger98]

It's even less likely you can lock up all three guys to insanely team friendly deals like Boston did as well. There are a lot of layers and luck (which we will absolutely need at times as well) that have helped Boston become what they did.

Have to point out with everyone talking about how the Wings need to finish ahead of Boston for the playoffs and what not...Rask, Bergeron, Kreijc, and Marchand are all on the wrong side of 30. Krug is 28 and could just up and walk in a season. Chara was still a big piece of that team and is 42. They had the stars align a bit last year, but I think they are quickly approaching that time where they just won't have the gas to push through the playoffs without some serious revamping of their team.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]