Is this the last year of the rebuild?

[The Zetterberg Era]

No wonder Yzerman kept Blashill around... Notes: Blashill and Boston's Krug have strong connection

In the same vein, depending on his health this coming season, I wouldn't be surprised if Green is back in the fold for 20-21 as well. Whether it's because Yzerman decided not to or couldn't move him at the deadline and extended him, or they moved him as a rental and brought him back as a UFA.

I have to imagine with as particular as Green is about where he's open to play and the looming expansion draft in 2021, he probably doesn't sign for more than a year and likely for less money. Better to go with the devil you know to keep some stability at the position.

Looking at Yzerman's bluelines early in his Lightning tenure, it would be really surprising if at least TWO of Green, Daley, Ericsson or Kronwall (if he returns) aren't either retained or replaced by veteran Dmen.

It would be nice to have a talented Spartan on the team...

The relationship between the Tampa and Detroit coaching staffs is quite close. They go to dinners when they play each other. Lalonde was in our system at one point. Cooper and Blash are extremely close, I believe they were in each other's wedding parties. They believe in the same system, obviously there is a huge talent disparity. People have chased after Cooper at times in Tampa and Stevie would have none of it. I don't think Blash is getting drummed out as quickly as this board thinks.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Absent multiple, significant trades or UFA signings I expect we will remain around here for at least three more seasons. I like a lot of our prospects but also recognize that it will take several years for the next guard to develop into productive NHL players.

 

[Zetterbeer]

The defense and goaltending are the big issues right now.
Forward wise, the Zadina, Svechnikov, Rasmussen and Hirose put us very close to being ready. Probably 2 years.
But our defense?
That's a lot more complicated. The Red Wings used one first in 12 years on defensemen. And it shows.

Not only that, it takes more time, usually, to develop defense.

I look at a team like the Flyers and wonder if that's the direction the Red Wings are heading.
Giroux. Couturier. Voracek. Konecny. Van Riemsdyk. Patrick. Simmonds. Laughton. Lindblom.
That's a decent group of forwards.

On defense: Gostisbehere. Sanheim. Provorov. Hagg. That's four good to great young guys. Along with Gudas and a collection of guys.

The Flyers have some serious young talent on their blueline. Yet their defense sucks. Provorov is a real, elite talent. And he went -16 last year.

Granted, Hakstoll was a terrible coach.

Agreed, and unfortunately for us starting goalies and top defenceman are not readily available in free agency.

Fortunately, we have an abundance of potential and current top 6 wingers. Between AA, Mantha, Svech, Bert, Zadina, Hirose, Ras and Berggren, something has to give in the coming years. Whether or not Ras, Berggren or Svech become what we think they can be, there is also plenty of free agents we could sign to fill those roles.

Depending on how hard Zadina/Hirose/Svech and Ras can push for top 6 roles and cement themselves there, I fully expect Yzerman to move one of our wingers by next years draft. One of Mantha and AA seem like the most likely to be moved as they would return the greatest asset and obviously have expiring RFA contracts.

A major trade, coupled with a FA signing here or there to fill needed roles and improvements from our major prospects and I fully expect this to be our last piss poor year.

 

[Nico the Draft Riser]

3-4 years unless you win Lafreniere - then probably two years

Defense is the big issue and not only do you need to get in position to draft such defenseman, they need to develop.

However if you win Lafreniere you can spare assets to acquire a young dman.

 

[Retire91]

I was honestly rather shocked by this question. Where is the elite talent needed to open a cup window that would signify the rebuild is over?

 

[ShelbyZ]

Agreed, and unfortunately for us starting goalies and top defenceman are not readily available in free agency.

Fortunately, we have an abundance of potential and current top 6 wingers. Between AA, Mantha, Svech, Bert, Zadina, Hirose, Ras and Berggren, something has to give in the coming years. Whether or not Ras, Berggren or Svech become what we think they can be, there is also plenty of free agents we could sign to fill those roles.

Depending on how hard Zadina/Hirose/Svech and Ras can push for top 6 roles and cement themselves there, I fully expect Yzerman to move one of our wingers by next years draft. One of Mantha and AA seem like the most likely to be moved as they would return the greatest asset and obviously have expiring RFA contracts.

This is exactly what the Red Wings should hope Yzerman brought from the Lightning, and why I disagree with the notion that they team can have too many wingers. That ability they had to keep pulling rabbits out of a hat with forward depth from both the draft and through college UFA's is what helped them get those allusive goalies and Dmen... Guys like Conacher, Johnson, Gourd, Palat, Point, Namestnikov, possibly Cirelli now, etc. Those guys kept coming in and making other forwards expendable, and then either they themselves or the player made expendable are traded to fill those spots on D. A lot of Tampa's better D and goalies can be traced back to excess forward depth and expendability:

Vasilevsky - Holland wants Quincey, but Colorado won't deal him to Detroit. Yzerman steps in and sends still productive yet regressing Steve Downie for for him, and then trades Quincey to Detroit for what ends up being the 19th overall pick they used to take their current and long term starting goalie

Bishop - Yzerman end up with two rookies that make a splash during the lockout shortened year (Killorn and Conacher) as well good extended looks at Johnson and Palat. He deals the rookie forward with the riskier longterm outlook and a 4th rounder to acquire a somewhat cost controlled starting goalie

Cernak - Basically strings from the last one. Vasilevsky made Bishop expendable, so Yzerman deals him and gets Cernak as part of the return.

Sergachev - They draft Drouin at #3OA and Yzerman takes a patient approach. While Drouin's back at junior in his D+1, the Lightning get 2 breakout rookie forwards in a 2nd consecutive year with Palat and Johnson, and Kucherov looks promising after finishing the year in the NHL. Drouin comes over the next season, but is overshadowed by the breakout of Kucherov. Namestnikov also comes up that season. The next year, Drouin struggles with an injury and gets suspended for not reporting to the minors, and instead of panicking and dumping him, Yzerman just remains patient. Meanwhile, Namestnikov has a decent first full season. Drouin returns and has an excellent playoff. In the next season, he breaks out, but at the same time Kucherov puts up an elite season, Point puts up an unexpectedly impressive rookie season, and Gourde finishes the season on the NHL club with 5 goals in his last 8 games. Drouin then becomes expendable enough to deal for Sergachev in a trade where if Sergachev doesn't make an immediate impact, the Lightning get a 2nd rounder as well.

McDonagh - This one basically continues from the Sergachev example. Gourde has an impressive first full season, Point and Kucherov continue to improve and Namestnikov has a break out 20 goal season. Namestnikov is then part of the package to bring in McDonagh and JT Miller. Then of course after Cirelli has a good rookie year, Miller gets traded to open up cap space and recoups the value of some of the assets traded along with Namestnikov in the initial trade.

That has to be one of the biggest keys to the Lightning's success with Yzerman. Look at their D for most of last season (which was pretty much Yzerman's doing). A #2OA that was drafted before Yzerman got there, the 3 guys acquired in trades mentioned above, a high end UFA signing in Stralman, and depth in a UFA buyout reclamation project in Girardi and a veteran in Coburn that they paid a decent price for a few years prior. No Yzerman draft picks whatsover (other than Koekkoek sitting in the pressbox), and it wasn't even an issue.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Just getting started? I strongly disagree. There are some really good young pieces (obviously no top end talent from the drafts). I don't see this team being this bad for very long unless things just completely fall apart.

You have to look at teams like Winnipeg and Carolina who had really solid pieces but no super stars: it took quite a few years for them to turn into being a solid playoff team. Didn't Carolina go like a decade without making the playoffs? I wouldn't be shocked if we go somewhere close to a decade in total before making the playoffs. Our NA drafting was thoroughly mediocre and it will take some time to recover from that. Ideally we really hit our stride when Larkin is still in his prime, say his late 20s.

Yzerman may be able to shorten that timeframe, we'll know more by this time next year when he's had a chance to make decisions on the current team and start trading out some pieces. He has a lot of work to do but I do think he will get it back on track. It's just going to take longer than what you expect.

 

[Hammettf2b]

You have to look at teams like Winnipeg and Carolina who had really solid pieces but no super stars: it took quite a few years for them to turn into being a solid playoff team. Didn't Carolina go like a decade without making the playoffs? I wouldn't be shocked if we go somewhere close to a decade in total before making the playoffs. Our NA drafting was thoroughly mediocre and it will take some time to recover from that. Ideally we really hit our stride when Larkin is still in his prime, say his late 20s.

Yzerman may be able to shorten that timeframe, we'll know more by this time next year when he's had a chance to make decisions on the current team and start trading out some pieces. He has a lot of work to do but I do think he will get it back on track. It's just going to take longer than what you expect.

if it takes another decade to make the playoffs then this rebuild was a total disaster. With our young players plus cap space coming up, we should push for the playoffs in 2 years imo.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

Always depends on too many factors to say yes or no to a specific timeline. We win the #1 pick and Krug next summer our time line changes

I think that's the correct answer. As it stands now this team looks to be set for another bottom 5 finish in 2019-2020 and if you project our 2020-2021 roster the immediate future doesn't look bright. If the Wings add Lafreniere, Krug, and the young guys develop that's a very different looking team going into 2020-2021. If the Wings are "unlucky" and don't get a top 3 pick again this year than it's likely the 2022-2023 season before they're pushing for a playoff spot again.

Seeing as most players hit their peak in their 24 year old season and they stick around that level for a couple of seasons, typically till about 28 or 29, and than they begin to really decline, the Wings still have time to add core pieces to surround Mantha and Larkin. I think the speed of the rebuild will be determined by how successful Yzerman and co are at find find elite talent outside of the top 10 to augment those high picks. As of now, I would say the Wings have 1 "elite" player/prospect in the system and that is Larkin. There are a lot of pieces that look like they'll be good top 6 or 9 forwards, but I'm hesitant to say that someone like Veleno or Zadina can be line driving players.

 

[Run the Jewels]

if it takes another decade to make the playoffs then this rebuild was a total disaster. With our young players plus cap space coming up, we should push for the playoffs in 2 years imo.

We've already gone three years with no playoffs. I think 5 is a good over/under for how many more years we miss the playoffs. The D is a disaster, we have no depth at center beyond Larkin, and no clear future goaltender.

Like I said it could take less time, this is just what I think is reasonable. I will not criticize Yzerman for the first 5 or so years and hopefully by then he will have restocked the team and pipeline.

 

[Borlag]

The rebuild will continue for as long as it takes until you don't have to try and justify it with lottery stuff such as "we only need this and that guy to exceed expectations". Yea if someone does just that, it's obviously great but you just can't plan the future assuming someone exceeds expectations, you have to to play smart and continue until they actually prove that. Right now we have guys that are progressing nicely and could become something, but that still only means just that. They're doing what is expected of them.

Basically after next season we'll start knowing what we have in Hronek, 2-3 seasons from that we'll know what we have in Seider. We just can't stop building our blueline from draft until we know for sure that we've got it. Same thing with center depth, right now Larkin is the only one we can be sure about. The rest is nothing but what if's and hopeful thinking.

 

[Gniwder]

I was honestly rather shocked by this question. Where is the elite talent needed to open a cup window that would signify the rebuild is over?

2020 1st overall pick because Bettman loves Stevie, and we all know the lottery is rigged.

 

[micormic79]

Not even close, probably 5 more years at least.

 

[odin1981]

It is dependent on the development of our D prospects, IMO

I would add one addendum to this a additional top 6 center as well. Velono might take that need off the table, but he has played 0 nhl games yet can't in any way possible guess to what his aptitude will be.

 

[Killerjas]

Atleast 2 to 3 years, depending on the UFA's we sign, the current D core developing (Hronek, Cholowski, McIsaac, Lindstrom etc.) and the players drafted (in my dream we get Perfetti or Lafreniere next year, Raty in 2021, Savoie/Wright/Lambert in 2022)

 

[obey86]

Nope. 2-3 more years. The defenseman prospects won't be ready until then, which is the primary weakness. And even then, they'll need time to learn the NHL game.

Hronek is ready this year. Cholowski could be on the team this coming year, or the next year at the latest. That’s 2 of their top 3 defensive prospects.

 

[obey86]

I think this will be the last of the truly awful years. Even if the Wings don't win the lotto, they're going to start bringing in too much decent young talent to stay at the bottom, imo. they might get another high pick or two after 2020 just from Draft Luck (at some point the hockey gods could be nice to us, anyway) but they will be unlikely to walk into the draft with the odds of a bottom5 team in their favor.

If they are legitimately awful beyond this season, then we'll be seeing some guys (Mantha, Athanasiou, Cholowski) dealt for futures and stunting the team growth or a number of guys just failing to live up to expectations.

The Wings are either 1-2 years away from being on the playoff bubble (I would consider the "rebuild" over at that point, as you wouldn't be looking to stay bad anymore) or more like 5-7 years. If it's 5-7 years that means something went horribly wrong with the majority of Cholowski, Hronek, Zadina, Veleno, etc

 

[obey86]

With the state of the defense, I really think this is year one of the rebuild. Holland sold guys on expiring contracts but be never bought into a rebuild mentality. They would need to get really lucky with a lot of guys to get a roster that could win a round in the playoffs. The team has a good group of forwards, but the defense is terrible and they have no real surefire top-pair defenders on the shelf. Lucking into a first overall pick will likely shave a year off but I don't see the league allowing Detroit into the top two. Yzerman's approach this summer was not that of a GM who expects to be a playoff contender within a season. I think you are looking, at best, at playoffs in 2022. Two more seasons of missing the playoffs.

What has Yzerman done this offseason that Holland hadn't done the previous 2-3 offseasons because he never bought into the rebuild (as you say)?

 

[obey86]

if it takes another decade to make the playoffs then this rebuild was a total disaster. With our young players plus cap space coming up, we should push for the playoffs in 2 years imo.

Bingo. Anyone saying it's going to take another decade to be remotely competitive (i.e. the point where you aren't actively "trying" for a top 5 pick anymore) is basically conceding that the large majority of the Wings young players/top prospects are going to be huge disappointments/busts.

 

[JoesuffP]

I just don’t see a great core in the system atm

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Hronek is ready this year. Cholowski could be on the team this coming year, or the next year at the latest. That’s 2 of their top 3 defensive prospects.

It takes a bit for defensemen to find their defensive games, though. Neither of those guys are going to be dependable in that sense for a while. Especially since it's not really their strength in the first place.

Then add in Seider, McIsaac, etc having to figure out the NHL level, and that'll take a couple of years. I don't think we're talking 5 years, but maybe 3 or so.

 

[ThankGord]

There are a lot of ifs:
- If we get good development from Zadina, Cholowski, Ras, Veleno, and Hronek and if Hirose is the real deal
- If Mantha, AA, and Bert can keep up what they started towards the end of last season (I'm confident Larks will)
- If Yzerman puts his stamp on the team with a 2020 offseason similar to the Rangers or Devils this year

I think this could be our last year at the bottom / the beginning of the rise up.

 

[AD1066]

Despite a few years of high picks (for us at least), we aren't close to what some other teams have amassed in terms of young talent IMO.

Larkin is a fine player, but we don't have a McDavid, Matthews, Eichel, Barkov, or really even someone comparable to guys like Marner, Point, or Draisaitl. And then factor in the likely development of guys like Hughes or Kakko.

It's great that we're adding young talent again, but it seems like a number of other teams have added more impactful talent within the timeframe of our own rebuild. In many cases that's due to better lottery luck, no doubt, but I just don't see anything we've done recently that's going to push us ahead of some of the other U-25 cores being assembled around the league.

 

[Outl4w]

Larkin reminds me a of a good number two center like Keith Primeau was in his prime for the Wings and Flyers. He was never the number one guy or elite but put up solid numbers.

 

[NickH8]

Bingo. Anyone saying it's going to take another decade to be remotely competitive (i.e. the point where you aren't actively "trying" for a top 5 pick anymore) is basically conceding that the large majority of the Wings young players/top prospects are going to be huge disappointments/busts.

Odds are that's the case though. The only u25 players we can say for sure are impact guys are the 4 forwards who were on the team last year. The truth is the Chicago and Toronto situations where every prospect hits is the exception. Add to that the fact that it will take at least two full seasons for Hronek and Cholowski to be reliable in their own zone (this is the case for 90% of defensemen) and no clear cut goalie for the future and you're looking at 4-6 years instead of 2-3.