Is this the last year of the rebuild?

[obey86]

Is that you?

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Have to point out with everyone talking about how the Wings need to finish ahead of Boston for the playoffs and what not...Rask, Bergeron, Kreijc, and Marchand are all on the wrong side of 30. Krug is 28 and could just up and walk in a season. Chara was still a big piece of that team and is 42. They had the stars align a bit last year, but I think they are quickly approaching that time where they just won't have the gas to push through the playoffs without some serious revamping of their team.

I think Florida or Buffalo could step forward and make life miserable for Boston or Toronto. I don't really believe in the goalie situation in Buffalo though. Boston also should have kind of a rough bounce back physically after a deep run. Though there is some youth on that team. Carlo and McAvoy are really good right sided pieces. Krug is an excellent defender and I hope is a new addition for us this time next year. Debrusk and Pasta shouldn't be impacted by a deep run. Tukka played his best hockey since his vezina and should be confident. I get the concern, I think Krejci is on the down swing. One of the more underrated guys of the recent era, like a Dallas guy in the 90s I guess right @Bench.

I think Toronto is a big Andersen injury away from huge problems. I expect them to make the playoffs and score lots of goals, I still don't expect them to get out of the first round without anyone aside from Muzzin that actually is good at defense.

Florida should be good, I think they are at least a wildcard team this year, but should challenge whichever of Boston or Toronto slips a little.

Tampa really should run and hide again, they just fixed both of their weaknesses from last year. Quality backup and Right-handed puckmoving PP specialist. As frightening as it is to contemplate, I think they did get fractionally better again this off-season, especially because I think there is more to a few of their younger guys.

Us and Ottawa are a dumpster fire, there are going to be a lot of nights where we are getting crushed pretty good. The top part of our division is pretty good, really should help those pushing for a higher pick. Whatever team winds up being the heel of the Central is also going to take beatings on a nightly basis this year as well in divisional games.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Is that you?

No, he does a lot of hockey stuff, some of it I don't care for. Yes he makes mistakes on certain things, but I do find a lot of his work entertaining. It also gives you kind of a hockey die-hards view without allegiance views our scenario. That goaltending and defense is a disaster but things are shaping up in the front. Seemed an interesting add to this thread at least. He was missing Svech and messed up some names but the rundown itself wasn't necessarily out of line in my opinion. Thought others might enjoy it.

 

[NickH8]

No, he does a lot of hockey stuff, some of it I don't care for. Yes he makes mistakes on certain things, but I do find a lot of his work entertaining. It also gives you kind of a hockey die-hards view without allegiance views our scenario. That goaltending and defense is a disaster but things are shaping up in the front. Seemed an interesting add to this thread at least. He was missing Svech and messed up some names but the rundown itself wasn't necessarily out of line in my opinion. Thought others might enjoy it.

I appreciate him just for the fact he puts out so much hockey content even during the dulldrums of the off-season. He doesn't get everything right but he's honest about his biases and is an all around good guy.

 

[FireBird71]

No, he does a lot of hockey stuff, some of it I don't care for. Yes he makes mistakes on certain things, but I do find a lot of his work entertaining. It also gives you kind of a hockey die-hards view without allegiance views our scenario. That goaltending and defense is a disaster but things are shaping up in the front. Seemed an interesting add to this thread at least. He was missing Svech and messed up some names but the rundown itself wasn't necessarily out of line in my opinion. Thought others might enjoy it.

I’ve watched several of his videos including his ones he did during the draft...he’s not very good..same with Graviteh

 

[NickH8]

I’ve watched several of his videos including his ones he did during the draft...he’s not very good..same with Graviteh

Graviteh is just awful, that we can agree on. It really bothers me when someone making a video that's supposed to present information about the league can't do an extra minute of research to get basic pronunciations right. It's Svechnikov, not Smechvikov.

 

[Bench]

I think Krejci is on the down swing. One of the more underrated guys of the recent era, like a Dallas guy in the 90s I guess right @Bench.

Unsurprisingly one of my favorite players since he came into the league. It was actually watching him, very early in his career in a primetime game against the Wings, that had me sold the Bruins were going to be a force.

 

[FireBird71]

Graviteh is just awful, that we can agree on. It really bothers me when someone making a video that's supposed to present information about the league can't do an extra minute of research to get basic pronunciations right. It's Svechnikov, not Smechvikov.

Top Shelf Hockey is about the only day he I watch on a regular basis. The rest are NHL or Red Wing streams

 

[Run the Jewels]

To approach this from another angle, we'd be further along and closer to the end of the rebuild with some lottery luck - imagine a roster that includes Dahlin, Makar and Dach. That would give you great odds of having a #1 center and a top pairing on defense that would perform at an elite level. You'd have Larkin as your other top 6 center and that's a rock solid core you can build around. The rest can be built out through drafting and development and via trades. Of course we have none of those guys and instead have a lot of question marks. You cannot rely on lottery luck so it really depends heavily on drafting and development and for the foreseeable future we should always have 2 picks in the top 50 of each draft and if we can acquire additional picks in the top 50 that's great. This is the part where I mention trading Abby, Helm and Howie would have almost certainly given us an extra 3 top 50 picks. C'est la vie.

The biggest thing under our control that is holding us back is that our top 50 picks have largely become mediocre NHL'ers at best if not outright busts. Looking at these draft picks over a ten year period:

2016: Cholo (wait and see), Givani Smith (not looking good), Hronek at 53 is looking good (Hakan special)
2015: Svechnikov (trending poorly)
2014: Larkin (greatly outperforming draft spot)
2013: Mantha (outperforming draft slot), Nastasiuk (bust)
2012: Frk (marginal NHL'er)
2011: Jurco (marginal NHL'er), Ouellet (bust), Sproul at 55 was a bust
2010: Sheahan (marginal NHL'er), Jarnkrok at 51 is a solid NHL'er
2009: Ferraro (bust)
2008: McCollum (bust)
2007: Brendan Smith (marginal NHL'er)

One legitimately great draft pick in Larkin and one really good pick in Mantha over a ten year period. This is why we have no true core to build around outside of Larkin. This, much moreso than the poor lottery luck, is the reason this rebuild isn't going to be over after this season. Yes, it is possible that Cholo turns into a Norris winning defenseman and Veleno turns into a rock solid top 6 center. The big question is how likely is that to happen? The odds are pretty long.

Now I like Veleno as a bottom 6 center. I think he'd put up lots of points and be a fixture on the PK. He's a really good player if you use him a role where he is likely to flourish. So I am hesitant to expect him and Cholo and Hronek and Rasmussen to outperform the way Larkin has. Dylan Larkin is the exception, not the rule.

 

[Pavels Dog]

This is the part where I mention trading Abby, Helm and Howie would have almost certainly given us an extra 3 top 50 picks.

And.. that would have shaved years off the rebuild?

Pretty small things here and there can greatly affect the future of a team, but I'd argue winning one draft lottery would matter a lot more than 3 extra top 50 picks some years ago, even if you go full 20/20 hindsight and draft the best possible players with those picks.

The biggest thing under our control that is holding us back is that our top 50 picks have largely become mediocre NHL'ers at best if not outright busts. Looking at these draft picks over a ten year period:

2016: Cholo (wait and see), Givani Smith (not looking good), Hronek at 53 is looking good (Hakan special)
2015: Svechnikov (trending poorly)
2014: Larkin (greatly outperforming draft spot)
2013: Mantha (outperforming draft slot), Nastasiuk (bust)
2012: Frk (marginal NHL'er)
2011: Jurco (marginal NHL'er), Ouellet (bust), Sproul at 55 was a bust
2010: Sheahan (marginal NHL'er), Jarnkrok at 51 is a solid NHL'er
2009: Ferraro (bust)
2008: McCollum (bust)
2007: Brendan Smith (marginal NHL'er)

One legitimately great draft pick in Larkin and one really good pick in Mantha over a ten year period. This is why we have no true core to build around outside of Larkin. This, much moreso than the poor lottery luck, is the reason this rebuild isn't going to be over after this season.

The stretch from ~05-11 has more to do with why we are rebuilding in the first place than being part of the problem for this rebuilding effort.

I'd argue from 2012-2016 we got a good haul of talent when you look at it as drafting during playoff years.

Tbh take a 10 year stretch of drafting from any perennial playoff team and it's unlikely to look much better.

 

[Run the Jewels]

And.. that would have shaved years off the rebuild?

Sure, if we weren't so bad at drafting with our top 50 picks. There's a reason Holland is in Edmonton and Yzerman has revamped NA scouting. There are far too many misses and in that context I guess you can wave a tiny little victory flag that having 3 more top 50 picks would have made no difference.

Pretty small things here and there can greatly affect the future of a team, but I'd argue winning one draft lottery would matter a lot more than 3 extra top 50 picks some years ago, even if you go full 20/20 hindsight and draft the best possible players with those picks.

Yeah, I said as much. The thing is you have zero control over how the draft lottery balls bounce. You do have control over how your top 50 draft picks work out. That is the larger point in the context of the topic at hand: we didn't draft well over a 10 year period and these are the guys who would be part of the core if the rebuild was over after this season. I don't see it happening and have outlined why.

I'd argue from 2012-2016 we got a good haul of talent when you look at it as drafting during playoff years..

So you think those players drafted are going to be key players when we are eventually competing for division/conference titles, presidents trophies and hopefully Cups? If so which ones? I see Larkin for sure and possibly Bertuzzi.

 

[PullHard]

Is that you?

it me

 

[Pavels Dog]

Sure, if we weren't so bad at drafting with our top 50 picks. There's a reason Holland is in Edmonton and Yzerman has revamped NA scouting. There are far too many misses and in that context I guess you can wave a tiny little victory flag that having 3 more top 50 picks would have made no difference.



Yeah, I said as much. The thing is you have zero control over how the draft lottery balls bounce. You do have control over how your top 50 draft picks work out. That is the larger point in the context of the topic at hand: we didn't draft well over a 10 year period and these are the guys who would be part of the core if the rebuild was over after this season. I don't see it happening and have outlined why.



So you think those players drafted are going to be key players when we are eventually competing for division/conference titles, presidents trophies and hopefully Cups? If so which ones? I see Larkin for sure and possibly Bertuzzi.

We've had a ton of picks, more than nearly all other teams in the last couple of drafts, so I just don't think going on about the players we might have been able to sell for a pick at some point in time is very constructive. There's always more you could have sold.

I don't know why you are putting some arbitrary "top 50" view of our drafting, but yes we drafted pretty poorly for a number of years. 05 to 11 was bad. Coincidentally we were a dominant team those years. Take a look at Pittsburgh's drafting in the last 10 years. Find a lot of talent?

Drafting while you're competing for cups is hard work. You're lucky to find a few complementary players.
After 2011 our team started hitting a decline and at about the same time it seems our drafting started improving. What a coincidence huh?

2012: Frk+AA is honestly a good haul from a draft where your highest pick is #49.
2013: Mantha+Bertuzzi+Janmark, excellent draft
2014: Larkin, what else needs to be said?
2015: Could be a complete miss, but I won't call it bad drafting if a guy suffers freak injuries. And Svech is still young, could get back on track.
2016: Looks awesome. Cholo has tons of potential still. Hronek is great. Smith could actually turn into a player and Larsson is very promising.

That's imo at least 4 out of the last 5 drafts of our playoff run that I would easily give a passing grade. And I'd be inclined to give 2013, 2014 and 2016 very high marks.

And yes yes I think some of those players could be part of our team and big parts when we're good again, I really don't see why not.

 

[Winger98]

The problem I have with the whole top50 thing is that considering where the Wings were drafting, Kindl at 19th was actually a success for drafting at that position. Smith at 27 was a success. Yeah, he didn't become what he wanted, but he's enjoyed a longer career than everyone but ~15 guys drafted after him. Would we rather have had some of those 15 other guys? Yeah, no doubt. But it's not like pretty much every team would like to have those guys, too. And the guy we did have outdid the vast majority of guys that could have been drafted and performed above what could be expected from that draft spot.

What we needed was for someone to drastically out perform expectations to the level of someone like Kucherov or Pointe. It didn't happen. Part of that is maybe on the guys drafting but part of it (probably a larger share) is just on pure dumb luck.

 

[Retire91]

I guess we have different views on what a rebuild actually is. I think the worst days are behind this team and only going to get better. To me just because you aren't a cup contender doesn't mean you are rebuilding from being a bottom 5 team.

Ah gotcha, I feel a rebuild is on when you are managing your assets in a certain way and able to not care about making the playoffs. Trading off assets that you don't see in your core for picks or prospects. For example, I would trade Green in a heartbeat.

There are also giant structural issues like no solution in goal, not knowing if the D core is good enough, not having any truly elite talent.

To me that all indicates we are still in the rebuild and that we are actually still just starting.

Just sharing my perception. IMO the rebuild is over when you have a young core that includes some elite players that are expected to go into the playoffs with a chance.

 

[deca guard]

i figure since were talkin rebuild some button tweets on next summers draft appropriate :

Thoughts on Yaroslav Askarov. Definitely in mix for 1st overall. Best goalie I’ve seen entering a draft since Carey Price in 2005. Skill, technique & IQ++ Last 12 months medal count
@russiahockey_en
Craig Button
@CraigJButton
Thoughts on Cole Perfetti. An elite offensive player who is an outstanding scorer but also an excellent playmaker. Sense & feel that is a 6/5! Can play centre or LW. We had Goal Caufield and now we have Goal Perfetti!
@SpiritHockey #2020NHLDraft 4/6
Thoughts on Quinton Byfield. The Evgeni Malkin clone has the great combination of skill, size & power and continues to push his game to higher levels. He has so much high end potential.
@Sudbury_Wolves #2020NHLDraft 3/63h
Thoughts on Hendrix Lapierre. Call him Bergeron or Barkov. He’s an outstanding player who plays the game with great intelligence, skill & passion.
Craig Button3h
Thoughts on Lafreniere. An elite scoring & play making winger. He may be in the mold of
@HockeyHallFame Michel Goulet. CHL player of the year in 2019.
Craig Button5h
It’s a wide open field for top of the
@NHL 2020 NHL Draft. 6 players who are legitimate candidates for 1st overall. Alexis Lafreniere, Hendrix Lapierre, Quinton Byfield, Cole Perfetti, Lucas Raymond & Yaroslav Askarov. #EliteTalent #SixPack #2020NHLDraft
@TSNHockey

 

[deca guard]

hlinka video highlites from highly rated draft prospects -
https://www.tsn.ca/hockey-canada/video/2020-nhl-draft-prospect-mixtape~1752164

 

[NickH8]

i figure since were talkin rebuild some button tweets on next summers draft appropriate :

Thoughts on Yaroslav Askarov. Definitely in mix for 1st overall. Best goalie I’ve seen entering a draft since Carey Price in 2005. Skill, technique & IQ++ Last 12 months medal count
@russiahockey_en
Craig Button
@CraigJButton
Thoughts on Cole Perfetti. An elite offensive player who is an outstanding scorer but also an excellent playmaker. Sense & feel that is a 6/5! Can play centre or LW. We had Goal Caufield and now we have Goal Perfetti!
@SpiritHockey #2020NHLDraft 4/6
Thoughts on Quinton Byfield. The Evgeni Malkin clone has the great combination of skill, size & power and continues to push his game to higher levels. He has so much high end potential.
@Sudbury_Wolves #2020NHLDraft 3/63h
Thoughts on Hendrix Lapierre. Call him Bergeron or Barkov. He’s an outstanding player who plays the game with great intelligence, skill & passion.
Craig Button3h
Thoughts on Lafreniere. An elite scoring & play making winger. He may be in the mold of
@HockeyHallFame Michel Goulet. CHL player of the year in 2019.
Craig Button5h
It’s a wide open field for top of the
@NHL 2020 NHL Draft. 6 players who are legitimate candidates for 1st overall. Alexis Lafreniere, Hendrix Lapierre, Quinton Byfield, Cole Perfetti, Lucas Raymond & Yaroslav Askarov. #EliteTalent #SixPack #2020NHLDraft
@TSNHockey

Classic Button way overreacting to the Hlinka. Very hard to take him seriously.
If every player he said was elite ended up being elite the salary cap would be at least double what it is now.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Yaroslav Askarov is going to be kicking around in the minors forever. He's going to be an Al Montoya type. Calling it now.

 

[Frk It]

Yaroslav Askarov is going to be kicking around in the minors forever. He's going to be an Al Montoya type. Calling it now.

Have you seen him play?

Also, shouldn’t all those Button quotes be in the draft thread?

 

[Frk It]

The 5 teams who finished ahead of us are Buffalo, NYR, Edmonton, Anaheim, and Vancouver. I think all of those teams will be better than us next year.

The 3 teams who finished behind us are NJ, LA, and Ottawa. I think NJ will jump us, but LA and Ottawa will probably be pretty bad again. So for this upcoming year, I can see the bottom 3 being us, LA, and Ottawa. If you look at the standings, it's hard to objectively point to teams Detroit will be better than with some confidence.

 

[PelagicJoe]

Lol not even close. Add two or three more Larkins and find a true #1 D, then maybe.

 

[masta8]

I would say this will be our last top 5 weakest teams in the league then 2020/21 will be competing for a playoff spot. I see Larkin, AA and Mantha continuing to make leaps this year and next. I love Hronek and believe he will be a terrific offensive D in the future, and Zadina is going to have a great rookie year this year and follow it up in 20/21.

 

[NickH8]

We just got Adam Erne so I'd say so