Is this defence good enough?

[1stDan]

D Corp is solid.

Better with Trouba for sure.

But solid without.

 

[Trinity]

Byfuglien isn't getting any younger.

 

[Maukkis]

It is not.

@mcpw said a lot of what I think of the last couple of final four teams, but I would like to go further back and point out that most finalists had at least a duo, if not a trio of top flight defensemen (Keith/Seabrook/Hjalmarsson, Hedman/Stralman, Vlasic/Burns/Braun, the Nashville Predators) holding the fort. Furthermore, said teams have had at least some depth on the blue line. Even the Pens of '17 still had Dumoulin, Schultz and Määttä trying to fill the gap left by Letang, as well as guys like Cole.

I'm done trying to convince posters about Trouba's importance to the Jets. There are posters who have taken the path of refusal, effectively ignoring the statistics that consistently prove them wrong and relying on god knows what to claim that Trouba is not that good/bested by other Jets. He is very underrated around by many here and when he eventually leaves, those people will find out the hard way. Some claim that we have the personnel to survive the loss of JT, which I disagree on, but let's analyse it anyway.

What do we have, then? We have Buff. A very known commodity who had a nice resurgence after having his minutes cut. The important part here is in bold. Guess which luxury we will lose out on after Trouba is no more? Moreover, Buff would likely have to go back to the PK, which isn't ideal, but when the option is to play Poolman there, I have no doubt in my mind as to what Maurice would do.

Morrissey is a keeper. Second highest ES point production rate among our defensemen (after... well, you know who). Some of the best PK stats among the same group. Tough minutes, good results. A top pairing guy for the next decade. Waiting for that eight-year deal to salvage the summer.

Myers is pretty much a #4 at this point. He doesn't produce many points at ES and struggles in his own zone. He allowed HD chances against at a higher rate than any other regular defenseman last year. He had success on the PP and possesses good tools for offensive usage.

Kulikov... oh boy. Bottom pairing caliber. Interestingly, CMHockey's GAR model has him as a replacement level player (0.32 GAR/82). Possession numbers are average, scoring a bit worse than that. At least we know he doesn't completely suck while logging 2nd pairing minutes, so there's that.

Chiarot: more replacement level fodder. Garret had a post in another thread which stated how we have had considerably worse results with him on the ice over several seasons in both shot volume and goals (?).

Poolman: too limited sample size to either put him on a pedestal or discard him as worthless junk.

I'll ignore Niku for now, and in all likelihood, it will be Morrow taking on the pressbox role and pushing him down to the A to start off the year. Morrow is more of the same that we already have in 5/7/3.


By a quick and rather subjective look at the guys we have, we seem to have a top pairing that should be able to get it done, a considerably less-than-ideal second pairing, and a bottom pairing that could easily be out there to survive. And this is without considering the following changes from last year.

- The shutdown role left by Trouba is now open. One of Buff, Myers and Poolman has to fill that.
- The pairing of Kulikov and Myers was very sheltered last year, and their play was still lackluster. Now, we'd basically ask them to take on even more responsibility, when we really don't have a reason to believe they will succeed in the role they already had.
- Both Myers and Buff are more suited to an offensive role. At least one of them would have to play in a defensive role.
- You're playing Morrissey at every situation under the sun. Enstrom was a very helpful guy to have last year due to his defensive impact. Now we won't have that, and if Trouba leaves, Morrissey would have a lot on his plate. Kulikov and Chiarot cannot help him at LHD as much as Enstrom and 3rd pairing Kuli did.
- The bottom pairing is not trustworthy. Do I have to remind anyone of what life was like with Stuart and Postma?
- The top scoring defenseman is gone. Who's going to step up and prove the shot volume and point production?

There are lots of things that go overlooked when trying to think what life will be like without Trouba. I'm not optimistic at all, but if we're going to get a replacement for him, that would help a lot. I'd like to get a guy like Torey Krug or Jake Gardiner to get us a legit top 4 (top 2 in a pinch) solution at LHD. Over time, there is a chance we already have ours in Niku and/or Samberg, but in the short term, that is not realistic. I guess we are OK at RHD in the short term, but a) I want no part in extending Myers after 18-19, and b) Buff isn't everlasting. It would require an unexpected change in the development of a prospect to turn RHD into a long-term strength. Either that, or Trouba would need to be kept.

 

[1stDan]

Byfuglien isn't getting any younger.

That's true.

I still think he can play high level for 2 or more seasons so long as injuries stay away. He can linger in a bottom 6 role after that.

Hell look at Chara he is still somewhat effective. Big Buff has always been a better skater than him too.

 

[Tdpjets]

the jets lost to vegas due to to lack of offense. the only game the jets won against vegas is the first game when they scored 4 goals. But with that being said, vegas did get lucky, because MAF was really good in that series.

Iam more concerned with the offense.

 

[Whileee]

With Trouba, the Jets' D is top level.

If they trade Trouba after next season the quality will really depend on how Poolman and Niku develop. I think there's a chance that Poolman can be a decent 2nd pairing D. If Niku also develops into a top 4 level D, the Jets will be weaker, but still not bad on D.

 

[kittiecarlyle]

the jets lost to vegas due to to lack of offense. the only game the jets won against vegas is the first game when they scored 4 goals. But with that being said, vegas did get lucky, because MAF was really good in that series.

Iam more concerned with the offense.

Not beating Vegas was definitely not because the D was not good enough to win. As you said, after game one the scoring dried up and that is why a contributing C to replace Stastny's playoff scoring is a key point.

 

[Duke749]

the jets lost to vegas due to to lack of offense. the only game the jets won against vegas is the first game when they scored 4 goals. But with that being said, vegas did get lucky, because MAF was really good in that series.

Iam more concerned with the offense.

Why? That makes no sense.

 

[KingBogo]

the jets lost to vegas due to to lack of offense. the only game the jets won against vegas is the first game when they scored 4 goals. But with that being said, vegas did get lucky, because MAF was really good in that series.

Iam more concerned with the offense.

Just because a team ran into a hot goalie and lost in the conference final you are worried about offense? The Jets just may have more offensive firepower than any team in the league. Certainly an easy top 5.

 

[KingBogo]

With Trouba, the Jets' D is top level.

If they trade Trouba after next season the quality will really depend on how Poolman and Niku develop. I think there's a chance that Poolman can be a decent 2nd pairing D. If Niku also develops into a top 4 level D, the Jets will be weaker, but still not bad on D.

This is assuming no defenseman or D prospect return in a trade for Trouba.

 

[ThinIce61]

First, step away from the edge. Trouba is not going to be traded this year. As much as some of us want to see his entitled ass shipped off to this mythical horrible destination that is somehow worse than Winnipeg, it's not going to happen. It's clear the organization sees another Cup run this year, and they are going to keep the team intact as much as possible.

As to whether this team's D is good enough? Even with Trouba, my answer is no. Morrissey is our star, why isn't he locked up yet, Chevy? Without him, every day would be like Sunday. After him, you start talking about least damaging.

Buff is like a box of chocolates. Will you get a nice praline, or crunchy frog? Total game changer in both the good and bad sense of the phrase. Overpowering beast, aimless wanderer, or reckless risk taker... they're all in there and which one shows up on any given night can lead us to delight or despair.

Trouba is one of those people that can accurately be described as stupid. Worse, he's stupid with a mean streak. That's a bad combination. On that play he was concussed, you could see he was going head hunting again, but got the worst of it. I see injuries and suspensions in his future.

Myers is just a clumsy klutz in the D zone and we have his heir apparent waiting in the wings. Stanley. Oh joy.

Kulikov is meh and grossly overpaid. And who knows if his back will hold up. We must have been desperate for a LD when we offered that contract. And we still are.

Chiarot and Morrow. Well, at least they work cheap. Since we're spending too much elsewhere, we can't really afford better.

Niku needs more Moose time. All offense, no defense right now.

Poolman is the big unknown for this season. Can he play well enough to earn regular playing time on the Jets, or will he and Dano develop a press box bromance?

Sorry, I really don't see a serious Cup threat with this D corp. There's only so much Laine can do to propel this team to greatness.

Just my opinions. There will be no charts or graphs presented as supporting evidence.

This is the same D crop that got us to the final 4.

Minus Enstrom who do me didn't do that much.
If Trouba doesn't miss any time and Kulikov as well it is probably better, no?

Morrissey with get more experience, a healthy Trouba playing the season of his life.
Morrow in over Chiarot In my opinion.

If Roslovic can hold his own at 2C or he and Little are able to be 2C(A) and 2C(B) and we pick up a piece at the trade deadline I see no reason why we aren't del into the playoffs again.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

thanks everyone for the great feedback. Really thought provoking stuff.

I apologize for missing Morrow, although, barring a breakout season by him, I doubt it changes the narrative about our defence.

The deconstruction of the 17 Pens team was fascinating. Crosby, Malkin and Murray's insane 937 save percentage certainly were freakishly bizarre. Their d was held together by duct tape, no doubt.

That said, the recent Stanly Cup champions have a nasty one -two knockout punch at centre that is worth taking a closer look at:

Here are examples:

2008: Zetterburg and Datsyuk
2009, 206, 2017: Crosby, Malkin
2011: Bergeron, krecji
2012/2014: Carter/Kopitar
2018: Backstrom/Kuznetsov

It is a tantalizing proposition to imagine having another centre on par with Mark Schiefle. Even one close in quality to Schief is very exciting.

Could Trouba return one of those?

Would our defence then be strong enough?

Essentially it comes down to if we think a Myers-Kulikov pairing is good enough to play big second pair minutes.

There was another post about how Trouba's presence makes Myers and Buff much better because their usage gets changed. It was a very valid point. Also, Kulikov and Myers have questionable injury histories. If one or both is missing or defence probably cannot recover.

The best route is probably to be patient. Niku and Poolman are the wild cards. Let's see after 35 games where we stand.

What is frustrating about this is that for a Cup contender we have more questions about our lineup than what feels comfortable at this point.

It would not surprise me if the Jets took a step back this season while we evaluated some of our talent. If some of these young players struggle and don't provide replacement for what we have lost I could see us exiting the playoffs earlier than we might like.

Although at this point its probably the smart move. Good thing we have a patient GM.

Lose the battle,win the war.

I think I will step away from the ledge, but also remind myself that until the cap space is opened up to fully deal with all of these concerns we may tread water for a season or two. 12 months from now this team could look very different.

 

[lomiller1]

It is not.

@mcpw said a lot of what I think of the last couple of final four teams, but I would like to go further back and point out that most finalists had at least a duo, if not a trio of top flight defensemen (Keith/Seabrook/Hjalmarsson, Hedman/Stralman, Vlasic/Burns/Braun, the Nashville Predators) holding the fort. Furthermore, said teams have had at least some depth on the blue line. Even the Pens of '17 still had Dumoulin, Schultz and Määttä trying to fill the gap left by Letang, as well as guys like Cole.

I'm done trying to convince posters about Trouba's importance to the Jets. There are posters who have taken the path of refusal, effectively ignoring the statistics that consistently prove them wrong and relying on god knows what to claim that Trouba is not that good/bested by other Jets. He is very underrated around by many here and when he eventually leaves, those people will find out the hard way. Some claim that we have the personnel to survive the loss of JT, which I disagree on, but let's analyse it anyway.

What do we have, then? We have Buff. A very known commodity who had a nice resurgence after having his minutes cut. The important part here is in bold. Guess which luxury we will lose out on after Trouba is no more? Moreover, Buff would likely have to go back to the PK, which isn't ideal, but when the option is to play Poolman there, I have no doubt in my mind as to what Maurice would do.

Morrissey is a keeper. Second highest ES point production rate among our defensemen (after... well, you know who). Some of the best PK stats among the same group. Tough minutes, good results. A top pairing guy for the next decade. Waiting for that eight-year deal to salvage the summer.

Myers is pretty much a #4 at this point. He doesn't produce many points at ES and struggles in his own zone. He allowed HD chances against at a higher rate than any other regular defenseman last year. He had success on the PP and possesses good tools for offensive usage.

Kulikov... oh boy. Bottom pairing caliber. Interestingly, CMHockey's GAR model has him as a replacement level player (0.32 GAR/82). Possession numbers are average, scoring a bit worse than that. At least we know he doesn't completely suck while logging 2nd pairing minutes, so there's that.

Chiarot: more replacement level fodder. Garret had a post in another thread which stated how we have had considerably worse results with him on the ice over several seasons in both shot volume and goals (?).

Poolman: too limited sample size to either put him on a pedestal or discard him as worthless junk.

I'll ignore Niku for now, and in all likelihood, it will be Morrow taking on the pressbox role and pushing him down to the A to start off the year. Morrow is more of the same that we already have in 5/7/3.


By a quick and rather subjective look at the guys we have, we seem to have a top pairing that should be able to get it done, a considerably less-than-ideal second pairing, and a bottom pairing that could easily be out there to survive. And this is without considering the following changes from last year.

- The shutdown role left by Trouba is now open. One of Buff, Myers and Poolman has to fill that.
- The pairing of Kulikov and Myers was very sheltered last year, and their play was still lackluster. Now, we'd basically ask them to take on even more responsibility, when we really don't have a reason to believe they will succeed in the role they already had.
- Both Myers and Buff are more suited to an offensive role. At least one of them would have to play in a defensive role.
- You're playing Morrissey at every situation under the sun. Enstrom was a very helpful guy to have last year due to his defensive impact. Now we won't have that, and if Trouba leaves, Morrissey would have a lot on his plate. Kulikov and Chiarot cannot help him at LHD as much as Enstrom and 3rd pairing Kuli did.
- The bottom pairing is not trustworthy. Do I have to remind anyone of what life was like with Stuart and Postma?
- The top scoring defenseman is gone. Who's going to step up and prove the shot volume and point production?

There are lots of things that go overlooked when trying to think what life will be like without Trouba. I'm not optimistic at all, but if we're going to get a replacement for him, that would help a lot. I'd like to get a guy like Torey Krug or Jake Gardiner to get us a legit top 4 (top 2 in a pinch) solution at LHD. Over time, there is a chance we already have ours in Niku and/or Samberg, but in the short term, that is not realistic. I guess we are OK at RHD in the short term, but a) I want no part in extending Myers after 18-19, and b) Buff isn't everlasting. It would require an unexpected change in the development of a prospect to turn RHD into a long-term strength. Either that, or Trouba would need to be kept.

This

 

[Hunter368]

This is assuming no defenseman or D prospect return in a trade for Trouba.

I do think that if Trouba is traded this summer or next the strengths & weaknesses on our team end up very likely shifting significantly. RHD may become a weakness, LHD or Centre might become a strength.......depending on the return for Trouba and how Niku/Roslovic develop this year. The long term outlook for our RHD at this point looks questionable. Trouba gone in a year or less possibly, Buff aging, Poolman ceiling, no good RHD prospects close to NHL ready or with high ceiling and Myers is a questionable long term extension.

Sky isn't falling bc of this potential, but it's a very possible reality RHD becomes a weakness in the next 1-2 years.

 

[KingBogo]

I do think that if Trouba is traded this summer or next the strengths & weaknesses on our team end up very likely shifting significantly. RHD may become a weakness, LHD or Centre might become a strength.......depending on the return for Trouba and how Niku/Roslovic develop this year. The long term outlook for our RHD at this point looks questionable. Trouba gone in a year or less possibly, Buff aging, Poolman ceiling, no good RHD prospects close to NHL ready or with high ceiling and Myers is a questionable long term extension.

Sky isn't falling bc of this potential, but it's a very possible reality RHD becomes a weakness in the next 1-2 years.

That's why IMO the ideal trade for Trouba is a #2 center and a top RHD prospect. I've advocated a few times something like Trouba for J.T. Miller and Foote might be set us up to be even better in the future. Get a #2 C the same age as Scheifele and a RHD that is pretty much a sure fire top 4 guy that has yet to play a season on his ELC. Trouba is walking out the door if we like it or not. Time to maximize a return that doesn't set us back.

 

[ps241]

@ Maukkis that is a very nice comprehensive breakdown.

 

[Hunter368]

That's why IMO the ideal trade for Trouba is a #2 center and a top RHD prospect. I've advocated a few times something like Trouba for J.T. Miller and Foote might be set us up to be even better in the future. Get a #2 C the same age as Scheifele and a RHD that is pretty much a sure fire top 4 guy that has yet to play a season on his ELC. Trouba is walking out the door if we like it or not. Time to maximize a return that doesn't set us back.

I’ve purposed similar type of packages myself. Assuming we keep Trouba this year, the benefit becomes we get to see how Niku/Roslovic develop this year and then we can target whatever we need next summer as a return.....plus we get one more kick at the cup this season with our full defence. I see Josh as the main guy we now build around on D long term......plus maybe Niku depending how he develops.

I look at the positive of everything in life, at least I try do. If Trouba leaves next summer and we get futures back solves our cap issues to a big degree. Sign Wheeler

 

[Weezeric]

It is not.

@mcpw said a lot of what I think of the last couple of final four teams, but I would like to go further back and point out that most finalists had at least a duo, if not a trio of top flight defensemen (Keith/Seabrook/Hjalmarsson, Hedman/Stralman, Vlasic/Burns/Braun, the Nashville Predators) holding the fort. Furthermore, said teams have had at least some depth on the blue line. Even the Pens of '17 still had Dumoulin, Schultz and Määttä trying to fill the gap left by Letang, as well as guys like Cole.

I'm done trying to convince posters about Trouba's importance to the Jets. There are posters who have taken the path of refusal, effectively ignoring the statistics that consistently prove them wrong and relying on god knows what to claim that Trouba is not that good/bested by other Jets. He is very underrated around by many here and when he eventually leaves, those people will find out the hard way. Some claim that we have the personnel to survive the loss of JT, which I disagree on, but let's analyse it anyway.

What do we have, then? We have Buff. A very known commodity who had a nice resurgence after having his minutes cut. The important part here is in bold. Guess which luxury we will lose out on after Trouba is no more? Moreover, Buff would likely have to go back to the PK, which isn't ideal, but when the option is to play Poolman there, I have no doubt in my mind as to what Maurice would do.

Morrissey is a keeper. Second highest ES point production rate among our defensemen (after... well, you know who). Some of the best PK stats among the same group. Tough minutes, good results. A top pairing guy for the next decade. Waiting for that eight-year deal to salvage the summer.

Myers is pretty much a #4 at this point. He doesn't produce many points at ES and struggles in his own zone. He allowed HD chances against at a higher rate than any other regular defenseman last year. He had success on the PP and possesses good tools for offensive usage.

Kulikov... oh boy. Bottom pairing caliber. Interestingly, CMHockey's GAR model has him as a replacement level player (0.32 GAR/82). Possession numbers are average, scoring a bit worse than that. At least we know he doesn't completely suck while logging 2nd pairing minutes, so there's that.

Chiarot: more replacement level fodder. Garret had a post in another thread which stated how we have had considerably worse results with him on the ice over several seasons in both shot volume and goals (?).

Poolman: too limited sample size to either put him on a pedestal or discard him as worthless junk.

I'll ignore Niku for now, and in all likelihood, it will be Morrow taking on the pressbox role and pushing him down to the A to start off the year. Morrow is more of the same that we already have in 5/7/3.


By a quick and rather subjective look at the guys we have, we seem to have a top pairing that should be able to get it done, a considerably less-than-ideal second pairing, and a bottom pairing that could easily be out there to survive. And this is without considering the following changes from last year.

- The shutdown role left by Trouba is now open. One of Buff, Myers and Poolman has to fill that.
- The pairing of Kulikov and Myers was very sheltered last year, and their play was still lackluster. Now, we'd basically ask them to take on even more responsibility, when we really don't have a reason to believe they will succeed in the role they already had.
- Both Myers and Buff are more suited to an offensive role. At least one of them would have to play in a defensive role.
- You're playing Morrissey at every situation under the sun. Enstrom was a very helpful guy to have last year due to his defensive impact. Now we won't have that, and if Trouba leaves, Morrissey would have a lot on his plate. Kulikov and Chiarot cannot help him at LHD as much as Enstrom and 3rd pairing Kuli did.
- The bottom pairing is not trustworthy. Do I have to remind anyone of what life was like with Stuart and Postma?
- The top scoring defenseman is gone. Who's going to step up and prove the shot volume and point production?

There are lots of things that go overlooked when trying to think what life will be like without Trouba. I'm not optimistic at all, but if we're going to get a replacement for him, that would help a lot. I'd like to get a guy like Torey Krug or Jake Gardiner to get us a legit top 4 (top 2 in a pinch) solution at LHD. Over time, there is a chance we already have ours in Niku and/or Samberg, but in the short term, that is not realistic. I guess we are OK at RHD in the short term, but a) I want no part in extending Myers after 18-19, and b) Buff isn't everlasting. It would require an unexpected change in the development of a prospect to turn RHD into a long-term strength. Either that, or Trouba would need to be kept.

You lost me when you said Justin Braun is a top flight defenceman. You’re clearly looking more critically at the jets defence than other teams. The Leafs have Ron Hainsey on the top pair and they’re viewed as a contender...

 

[Maukkis]

You lost me when you said Justin Braun is a top flight defenceman. You’re clearly looking more critically at the jets defence than other teams. The Leafs have Ron Hainsey on the top pair and they’re viewed as a contender...

The pairing of him and Vlasic achieved results that very much suggest that they were worthy of such high praise.

 

[Weezeric]

The pairing of him and Vlasic achieved results that very much suggest that they were worthy of such high praise.

And Ben chairot has good results playing with buff. That doesn’t make him a top tier defenceman.

 

[ps241]

My answer is with Trouba our D core is good enough to win a cup this year with .920 or better goaltending . Without him I don’t think so unless we get about .935 goaltending or we get a really solid top 4 D asset back in a trade.

 

[Maukkis]

And Ben chairot has good results playing with buff. That doesn’t make him a top tier defenceman.

If you want to call Braun a lesser one, fine. The Sharks still had a far better D corps than ours is without Trouba, so the point stands.

 

[Tommigun]

It is not.

@mcpw said a lot of what I think of the last couple of final four teams, but I would like to go further back and point out that most finalists had at least a duo, if not a trio of top flight defensemen (Keith/Seabrook/Hjalmarsson, Hedman/Stralman, Vlasic/Burns/Braun, the Nashville Predators) holding the fort. Furthermore, said teams have had at least some depth on the blue line. Even the Pens of '17 still had Dumoulin, Schultz and Määttä trying to fill the gap left by Letang, as well as guys like Cole.

I'm done trying to convince posters about Trouba's importance to the Jets. There are posters who have taken the path of refusal, effectively ignoring the statistics that consistently prove them wrong and relying on god knows what to claim that Trouba is not that good/bested by other Jets. He is very underrated around by many here and when he eventually leaves, those people will find out the hard way. Some claim that we have the personnel to survive the loss of JT, which I disagree on, but let's analyse it anyway.

What do we have, then? We have Buff. A very known commodity who had a nice resurgence after having his minutes cut. The important part here is in bold. Guess which luxury we will lose out on after Trouba is no more? Moreover, Buff would likely have to go back to the PK, which isn't ideal, but when the option is to play Poolman there, I have no doubt in my mind as to what Maurice would do.

Morrissey is a keeper. Second highest ES point production rate among our defensemen (after... well, you know who). Some of the best PK stats among the same group. Tough minutes, good results. A top pairing guy for the next decade. Waiting for that eight-year deal to salvage the summer.

Myers is pretty much a #4 at this point. He doesn't produce many points at ES and struggles in his own zone. He allowed HD chances against at a higher rate than any other regular defenseman last year. He had success on the PP and possesses good tools for offensive usage.

Kulikov... oh boy. Bottom pairing caliber. Interestingly, CMHockey's GAR model has him as a replacement level player (0.32 GAR/82). Possession numbers are average, scoring a bit worse than that. At least we know he doesn't completely suck while logging 2nd pairing minutes, so there's that.

Chiarot: more replacement level fodder. Garret had a post in another thread which stated how we have had considerably worse results with him on the ice over several seasons in both shot volume and goals (?).

Poolman: too limited sample size to either put him on a pedestal or discard him as worthless junk.

I'll ignore Niku for now, and in all likelihood, it will be Morrow taking on the pressbox role and pushing him down to the A to start off the year. Morrow is more of the same that we already have in 5/7/3.


By a quick and rather subjective look at the guys we have, we seem to have a top pairing that should be able to get it done, a considerably less-than-ideal second pairing, and a bottom pairing that could easily be out there to survive. And this is without considering the following changes from last year.

- The shutdown role left by Trouba is now open. One of Buff, Myers and Poolman has to fill that.
- The pairing of Kulikov and Myers was very sheltered last year, and their play was still lackluster. Now, we'd basically ask them to take on even more responsibility, when we really don't have a reason to believe they will succeed in the role they already had.
- Both Myers and Buff are more suited to an offensive role. At least one of them would have to play in a defensive role.
- You're playing Morrissey at every situation under the sun. Enstrom was a very helpful guy to have last year due to his defensive impact. Now we won't have that, and if Trouba leaves, Morrissey would have a lot on his plate. Kulikov and Chiarot cannot help him at LHD as much as Enstrom and 3rd pairing Kuli did.
- The bottom pairing is not trustworthy. Do I have to remind anyone of what life was like with Stuart and Postma?
- The top scoring defenseman is gone. Who's going to step up and prove the shot volume and point production?

There are lots of things that go overlooked when trying to think what life will be like without Trouba. I'm not optimistic at all, but if we're going to get a replacement for him, that would help a lot. I'd like to get a guy like Torey Krug or Jake Gardiner to get us a legit top 4 (top 2 in a pinch) solution at LHD. Over time, there is a chance we already have ours in Niku and/or Samberg, but in the short term, that is not realistic. I guess we are OK at RHD in the short term, but a) I want no part in extending Myers after 18-19, and b) Buff isn't everlasting. It would require an unexpected change in the development of a prospect to turn RHD into a long-term strength. Either that, or Trouba would need to be kept.

I wonder if a deal around Krug would be possible.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It is not.

@mcpw said a lot of what I think of the last couple of final four teams, but I would like to go further back and point out that most finalists had at least a duo, if not a trio of top flight defensemen (Keith/Seabrook/Hjalmarsson, Hedman/Stralman, Vlasic/Burns/Braun, the Nashville Predators) holding the fort. Furthermore, said teams have had at least some depth on the blue line. Even the Pens of '17 still had Dumoulin, Schultz and Määttä trying to fill the gap left by Letang, as well as guys like Cole.

I'm done trying to convince posters about Trouba's importance to the Jets. There are posters who have taken the path of refusal, effectively ignoring the statistics that consistently prove them wrong and relying on god knows what to claim that Trouba is not that good/bested by other Jets. He is very underrated around by many here and when he eventually leaves, those people will find out the hard way. Some claim that we have the personnel to survive the loss of JT, which I disagree on, but let's analyse it anyway.

What do we have, then? We have Buff. A very known commodity who had a nice resurgence after having his minutes cut. The important part here is in bold. Guess which luxury we will lose out on after Trouba is no more? Moreover, Buff would likely have to go back to the PK, which isn't ideal, but when the option is to play Poolman there, I have no doubt in my mind as to what Maurice would do.

Morrissey is a keeper. Second highest ES point production rate among our defensemen (after... well, you know who). Some of the best PK stats among the same group. Tough minutes, good results. A top pairing guy for the next decade. Waiting for that eight-year deal to salvage the summer.

Myers is pretty much a #4 at this point. He doesn't produce many points at ES and struggles in his own zone. He allowed HD chances against at a higher rate than any other regular defenseman last year. He had success on the PP and possesses good tools for offensive usage.

Kulikov... oh boy. Bottom pairing caliber. Interestingly, CMHockey's GAR model has him as a replacement level player (0.32 GAR/82). Possession numbers are average, scoring a bit worse than that. At least we know he doesn't completely suck while logging 2nd pairing minutes, so there's that.

Chiarot: more replacement level fodder. Garret had a post in another thread which stated how we have had considerably worse results with him on the ice over several seasons in both shot volume and goals (?).

Poolman: too limited sample size to either put him on a pedestal or discard him as worthless junk.

I'll ignore Niku for now, and in all likelihood, it will be Morrow taking on the pressbox role and pushing him down to the A to start off the year. Morrow is more of the same that we already have in 5/7/3.


By a quick and rather subjective look at the guys we have, we seem to have a top pairing that should be able to get it done, a considerably less-than-ideal second pairing, and a bottom pairing that could easily be out there to survive. And this is without considering the following changes from last year.

- The shutdown role left by Trouba is now open. One of Buff, Myers and Poolman has to fill that.
- The pairing of Kulikov and Myers was very sheltered last year, and their play was still lackluster. Now, we'd basically ask them to take on even more responsibility, when we really don't have a reason to believe they will succeed in the role they already had.
- Both Myers and Buff are more suited to an offensive role. At least one of them would have to play in a defensive role.
- You're playing Morrissey at every situation under the sun. Enstrom was a very helpful guy to have last year due to his defensive impact. Now we won't have that, and if Trouba leaves, Morrissey would have a lot on his plate. Kulikov and Chiarot cannot help him at LHD as much as Enstrom and 3rd pairing Kuli did.
- The bottom pairing is not trustworthy. Do I have to remind anyone of what life was like with Stuart and Postma?
- The top scoring defenseman is gone. Who's going to step up and prove the shot volume and point production?

There are lots of things that go overlooked when trying to think what life will be like without Trouba. I'm not optimistic at all, but if we're going to get a replacement for him, that would help a lot. I'd like to get a guy like Torey Krug or Jake Gardiner to get us a legit top 4 (top 2 in a pinch) solution at LHD. Over time, there is a chance we already have ours in Niku and/or Samberg, but in the short term, that is not realistic. I guess we are OK at RHD in the short term, but a) I want no part in extending Myers after 18-19, and b) Buff isn't everlasting. It would require an unexpected change in the development of a prospect to turn RHD into a long-term strength. Either that, or Trouba would need to be kept.

Nobody is saying that Trouba is not a VG Dman, nobody (well almost) is saying that he won't be missed. But losing him is only a disaster if we can't get decent value back.

I think you overvalue Myers a bit. I think he is a #5 with PP scoring as a plus. Maybe he is a 4/5 tweener.

If we lose Trouba the return has to include his eventual replacement or a significant upgrade at another position, like 2C for example.

We are not going to get the ideal trade return. Like it or not, his market value is somewhat reduced by the situation. But there are still plenty of potential deals that can work out well, if we get a bit of a break, or really good wheeling and dealing from Chevy. We may need to include some other good player to grease the deal if we are going to get value. And/or we might have to take on a bad contract.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

the jets lost to vegas due to to lack of offense. the only game the jets won against vegas is the first game when they scored 4 goals. But with that being said, vegas did get lucky, because MAF was really good in that series.

Iam more concerned with the offense.

We had the 2nd highest # of goals in the league last year. We haven't lost any offense. Not yet anyway.