Is Sidney Crosby on track to be (or already is) the 4th best forward ever?

[Gunnersaurus Rex]

I can see a case for Jagr.

Messier just doesn't have the regular season resume to be a too 4 or heck even a too 10 forward of all time.

Esposito just doesn't even come close as he was very ordinary outside of the Orr years.

Messier?
3rd in alltime points
2nd in all time games played
6 Stanley Cups
11 30+ goal seasons
2 Hart Trophy's
1 Conn Smythe
Seems like a pretty good resume to me.

 

[Rodgerwilco]

This is just you picking and choosing what arguments you see fit.

Let's say the media is biased, so what now? Crosby still cannot "suck" as a defensive player. The man finished top 10 in Selke and like I said, will finish top 5 this year. You are going that far to say he is a terrible defensive player but miraculously finishes that high? You can't even say he is average?

I've never understood this anti-Russian propaganda. Yeah, they made a mistake. Who cares? Malkin has won an MVP. So has Ovi. So have other Russians. In fact, many would argue Ovechkin won an MVP over Crosby when he shouldn't have. Stop making these dumb arguments.

It’s much better to just laugh, roll your eyes, and keep scrolling when it comes to him. His M.O. is picking and choosing.

Anything Crosby related and he’s immediately foaming at the mouth (I wouldn’t be surprised if this literally happened.) Picks and chooses what is important based on what helps his argument (I.e. makes Crosby look bad / Ovi look good), takes one tiny line out of an entire comment focuses on that and disregards a handful of other points. (Effectively nullifying the point because it moves the goalposts where he wants).

I don't think you are even sure what you are arguing...

This is a common theme. So far derailed and down the rabbit hole that the arguments aren’t even on topic lol

 

[nowhereman]

Secondary assists... blah, blah, blah... reputation Conn Smythe.... blah, blah, blah... whining cheapshot artist... blah, blah, blah... Malkin and Kessel carried the team... blah, blah, blah... goal scorers are better than playmakers.... Bettman and the refs... blah, blah, blah... did I mention secondary assists yet?

Typical HFboards Crosby thread. Nice to see the usual suspects are out, wasting their collective lives away tearing down some boring guy from Nova Scotia that they've never met. Keep up the good fight, kids!

 

[NextYear67]

Sid is top 5 for sure. Don't really care for anyone that disagrees. They're wrong.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Also if goals are more valuable than assists, why are they both worth a point? The only situation in which goal total vs assist total even matters is in the event of avoiding an Art Ross tie. You can argue as much as you want about the relative difficulty of scoring goals versus assists, but ultimately a player who scored 1 goal and 80 assists still outproduced a player that scored 40 goals and 40 assists.

This is a classic bandwagon logical fallacy.

 

[illpucks]

Sid is top 5 for sure. Don't really care for anyone that disagrees. They're wrong.

Top 4
Gretzky
Lemieux
Howe
Ovechkin

 

[Lomez]

Top 4
Gretzky
Lemieux
Howe
Ovechkin

Ovechkin over Orr (and dozens of others actually)? Comically absurd.

 

[Snowpants]

So when Art Ross finishes aren't in your favor, you switch to the "Goals are everything" argument.

Are you replying to the right person??? I have never said goals did not matter. It is you and this other guy who think finishing third in league points is as or more impressive than finishing FIRST in goals. Get your stories straight.

Crosby has a resume full of trophies and awards and team success that rivals any other #4 forwards. That is inarguble.

Except for Hull and Ovechkin you know the guys clearly ahead of him

 

[Snowpants]

I don't think it's unreasonable to put Crosby on that Mikita/Esposito/Lafleur level personally. I've always considered Esposito a little underrated.

I don't think Crosby is on track to end up the 4th best forward ever, but I do think he's on track to being in the group of players who are debatable for the 4th best forward ever. He doesn't have the separation on guys like Mikita, Jagr, Esposito and Lafleur, but he's sure on pace to end up at the same level as them.

I like that a Penguins fan is the one with the best and most fair take in this thread. Those guys arguing third place point finishes >>> goal scoring titles can learn something from you!!!

 

[Snowpants]

But will still be remembered in 10 year's.

Sure but not in the same way or for the same reasons Gretzky Howe Orr etc. will be

Not sure why goals would be that important of a metric. Hejduk leaded the league in goal more often than Peter Forsberg, did you really thought I didn't knew about Bobby Hull goal scoring resume ? You do not have to talk to me has if I was that much of a moron (I do write like one too)

If you did know about it before hand it makes your take even worse imo. Hejduk (and Cheechoo) showed that nearly any player can lead the league in goals if they are in a good situation. But to repeat it eight times? That is not luck. That is something special and more special than third in points a few times.

Giant sample size ppg domination over the field is considered offensive greatness to a lot of people, I must imagine it is the best metric for most serious analysis, one I tend to see the most.

No one gives out an award or is considered the best because they had a great PPG. It is the other things you can achieve by having the best PPG over a sample size (most points in a season decade etc.) that matter. To discount actual feats like finishing first in goals several times because one player's PPG is better for an arbitrary period should not be taken seriously by anybody if that is the main argument.

If your are hurt a lot in your very peak and not otherwise I am not so sure that is the case, cutting your career short obviously help your ppg, missing time during your peak year's I am not sure it help your career ppg in a of course ways. That would be true if we would have really not played enough game to make the sample size relevant, but Crosby played 1107 nhl game during that time. Marleau the super iron man with the most game of the era played 1238 game.

It helps. There were enough examples this year of it alone. You can not say so and so would have definitely scored X points based on pace because pace is so variable. The hottest player can go cold. It happens and has happened many times in history. Play the games though and there is no doubting it.

To give an idea from 2005-2006 to today Crosby is #7 in ice time among forward in regular season, #1 in playoff. #33 in games played in RS, #2 in playoff. Very few forward played more NHL hockey than him during is career

Again not really a wow factor stat, at least when trying to figure out who is a top 4/5 forward of all time. I do not care if he played the most minutes in the playoffs if he was also not the best (actual) point scorer or goal getter.

 

[illpucks]

Ovechkin over Orr (and dozens of others actually)? Comically absurd.

forwards only

 

[daver]

Are you replying to the right person??? I have never said goals did not matter. It is you and this other guy who think finishing third in league points is as or more impressive than finishing FIRST in goals. Get your stories straight.

Hart and Lindsay voting over the years would say that this statement is sometimes the case.

Why does OV have multiple seasons where he won the Richard yet did not get a Hart and/or Lindsay nomination while the 3rd place (or worse) in points did?

2013/14 - Giroux (3rd in points) - Hart and Lindsay
2015/16 - Crosby (3rd in points) - Hart
2017/18 - (MacKinnon (5th), Hall (6th)- Hart and Lindsay, Kopitar 8th) - Hart
2018/19 - ???

Point totals (overall offense) is easily the most valued commodity with goal totals given a smaller edge over assists. Art Ross winners dominate the list of Hart and Lindsay winners over the years.

 

[daver]

Crosby doesn't have a weakness on his resume vs. any other candidate other than longevity.

 

[BeastoftheEast85]

I would say top 10. He doesn’t belong in the Gretzky, Howe, Lemieux group. He belongs in the Jagr, Howe, Richard, Beliveau, Ovy, Morenz, Lafleur group.

 

[Voight]

I don't think it's unreasonable to put Crosby on that Mikita/Esposito/Lafleur level personally. I've always considered Esposito a little underrated.

I don't think Crosby is on track to end up the 4th best forward ever, but I do think he's on track to being in the group of players who are debatable for the 4th best forward ever. He doesn't have the separation on guys like Mikita, Jagr, Esposito and Lafleur, but he's sure on pace to end up at the same level as them.

I knew there was one of you somewhere. Yes Esposito is underrated IMO just because he played with Orr.

 

[bobholly39]

Crosby doesn't have a weakness on his resume vs. any other candidate other than longevity.

In terms of "lack of weaknesses" Crosby ranks very, very highly all time. In fact he's probably higher than top 5 in that regard. One of the most well-rounded resumes of all time. I think that's why it helps when comparing him to others

That's also why Beliveau tends to do so well in comparisons. He too is very well rounded in his resume

 

[ElLeetch]

Ovechkin over Orr (and dozens of others actually)? Comically absurd.

this is a thread about forwards.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

The "secondary assists" argument about Crosby has always been spurious, not just this season. He has never had a disproportionate amount of secondary assists compared to goals and primary assists at any point in his career. In fact, IIRC, someone on here calculated career PPG for a bunch of top players without factoring in secondary assists and Crosby was still on top of the league.

There's two ways to look at the data - secondary assists as a percentage of total assists, and secondary assists as a percentage of total points. I have data from 2008 to 2019, regular season only, and ES only.

Before someone accuses me of being biased because I'm only presenting ES data - I simply don't have the PP scoring data in a format that's usable. If someone else wants to look into that, I'd encourage it.

TABLE 1 - secondary assists as a percentage of total assists (top 50 ES scorers)

Player	G	1A	2A	TOTAL
Evgeni Malkin	228	234	105	567	31.0%
Sidney Crosby	261	260	132	653	33.7%
Daniel Sedin	182	195	101	478	34.1%
Phil Kessel	242	180	94	516	34.3%
Blake Wheeler	189	198	105	492	34.7%
Patrick Kane	256	246	131	633	34.7%
David Krejci	146	210	114	470	35.2%
Jakub Voracek	145	183	101	429	35.6%
Alex Ovechkin	347	184	103	634	35.9%
Jonathan Toews	230	185	105	520	36.2%
Henrik Zetterberg	163	188	107	458	36.3%
Eric Staal	222	190	111	523	36.9%
Joe Thornton	131	236	142	509	37.6%
Mike Ribeiro	112	171	103	386	37.6%
Claude Giroux	157	181	114	452	38.6%
Patrice Bergeron	174	155	98	427	38.7%
Anze Kopitar	200	197	125	522	38.8%
Jason Pominville	185	156	102	443	39.5%
Paul Stastny	149	163	109	421	40.1%
Milan Lucic	159	143	96	398	40.2%
Ryan Getzlaf	158	233	160	551	40.7%
Zach Parise	213	137	95	445	40.9%
Nicklas Backstrom	157	211	147	515	41.1%
Martin St. Louis	153	143	104	400	42.1%
Loui Eriksson	169	134	109	412	44.9%
Henrik Sedin	117	215	176	508	45.0%
David Backes	167	117	105	389	47.3%
Mikko Koivu	120	131	126	377	49.0%
Justin Williams	151	118	115	384	49.4%
Jamie Benn	195	131	131	457	50.0%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If you're looking at secondary assists as a percentage of total assists, Crosby actually has the 2nd lowest percentage out of the top 50 ES scorers during that period. If you compare Crosby's actual production compared to the group average, he got around 20 fewer secondary assists (and therefore 20 more primary assists), relative to what we'd expect.

TABLE 2 - secondary assists as a percentage of total points (top 50 ES scorers)

Player	G	1A	2A	TOTAL
Alex Ovechkin	347	184	103	634	16.2%
Phil Kessel	242	180	94	516	18.2%
Evgeni Malkin	228	234	105	567	18.5%
Jonathan Toews	230	185	105	520	20.2%
Sidney Crosby	261	260	132	653	20.2%
Patrick Kane	256	246	131	633	20.7%
Daniel Sedin	182	195	101	478	21.1%
Eric Staal	222	190	111	523	21.2%
Blake Wheeler	189	198	105	492	21.3%
Zach Parise	213	137	95	445	21.3%
Patrice Bergeron	174	155	98	427	23.0%
Jason Pominville	185	156	102	443	23.0%
Henrik Zetterberg	163	188	107	458	23.4%
Jakub Voracek	145	183	101	429	23.5%
Anze Kopitar	200	197	125	522	23.9%
Milan Lucic	159	143	96	398	24.1%
David Krejci	146	210	114	470	24.3%
Claude Giroux	157	181	114	452	25.2%
Paul Stastny	149	163	109	421	25.9%
Martin St. Louis	153	143	104	400	26.0%
Loui Eriksson	169	134	109	412	26.5%
Mike Ribeiro	112	171	103	386	26.7%
David Backes	167	117	105	389	27.0%
Joe Thornton	131	236	142	509	27.9%
Nicklas Backstrom	157	211	147	515	28.5%
Jamie Benn	195	131	131	457	28.7%
Ryan Getzlaf	158	233	160	551	29.0%
Justin Williams	151	118	115	384	29.9%
Mikko Koivu	120	131	126	377	33.4%
Henrik Sedin	117	215	176	508	34.6%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Goal-scorers tend to do better based on this metric, and playmakers do worse (hence Ovechkin in 1st, while Henrik Sedin is in last). This makes sense, since a higher (lower) percentage of Ovechkin's (Sedin's) points are from goals, his reliance on assists, both primary and secondary, is lower (higher).

Crosby still has the 5th lowest reliance on secondary assists during this period (again, among top 50 ES scorers over the past 11 seasons). Compared to the group average, Crosby scored 12 extra goals, 13 extra primary assists, and 26 fewer secondary assists.

 

[Lomez]

this is a thread about forwards.

Fair enough. Ovechkin over Lafleur, Jagr, Richard, Hull, Yzerman, Messier, and many others (including Sid) is similarly absurd. He's great, he's exciting, his shot might be the best I've ever seen, I love watching him play, but compared to a lot of the greats who did everything well, he's in the top tier, but not in top five discussion.

 

[Lomez]

There's two ways to look at the data - secondary assists as a percentage of total assists, and secondary assists as a percentage of total points. I have data from 2008 to 2019, regular season only, and ES only.

Before someone accuses me of being biased because I'm only presenting ES data - I simply don't have the PP scoring data in a format that's usable. If someone else wants to look into that, I'd encourage it.

TABLE 1 - secondary assists as a percentage of total assists (top 50 ES scorers)

Player	G	1A	2A	TOTAL
Evgeni Malkin	228	234	105	567	31.0%
Sidney Crosby	261	260	132	653	33.7%
Daniel Sedin	182	195	101	478	34.1%
Phil Kessel	242	180	94	516	34.3%
Blake Wheeler	189	198	105	492	34.7%
Patrick Kane	256	246	131	633	34.7%
David Krejci	146	210	114	470	35.2%
Jakub Voracek	145	183	101	429	35.6%
Alex Ovechkin	347	184	103	634	35.9%
Jonathan Toews	230	185	105	520	36.2%
Henrik Zetterberg	163	188	107	458	36.3%
Eric Staal	222	190	111	523	36.9%
Joe Thornton	131	236	142	509	37.6%
Mike Ribeiro	112	171	103	386	37.6%
Claude Giroux	157	181	114	452	38.6%
Patrice Bergeron	174	155	98	427	38.7%
Anze Kopitar	200	197	125	522	38.8%
Jason Pominville	185	156	102	443	39.5%
Paul Stastny	149	163	109	421	40.1%
Milan Lucic	159	143	96	398	40.2%
Ryan Getzlaf	158	233	160	551	40.7%
Zach Parise	213	137	95	445	40.9%
Nicklas Backstrom	157	211	147	515	41.1%
Martin St. Louis	153	143	104	400	42.1%
Loui Eriksson	169	134	109	412	44.9%
Henrik Sedin	117	215	176	508	45.0%
David Backes	167	117	105	389	47.3%
Mikko Koivu	120	131	126	377	49.0%
Justin Williams	151	118	115	384	49.4%
Jamie Benn	195	131	131	457	50.0%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

If you're looking at secondary assists as a percentage of total assists, Crosby actually has the 2nd lowest percentage out of the top 50 ES scorers during that period. If you compare Crosby's actual production compared to the group average, he got around 20 fewer secondary assists (and therefore 20 more primary assists), relative to what we'd expect.

TABLE 2 - secondary assists as a percentage of total points (top 50 ES scorers)

Player	G	1A	2A	TOTAL
Alex Ovechkin	347	184	103	634	16.2%
Phil Kessel	242	180	94	516	18.2%
Evgeni Malkin	228	234	105	567	18.5%
Jonathan Toews	230	185	105	520	20.2%
Sidney Crosby	261	260	132	653	20.2%
Patrick Kane	256	246	131	633	20.7%
Daniel Sedin	182	195	101	478	21.1%
Eric Staal	222	190	111	523	21.2%
Blake Wheeler	189	198	105	492	21.3%
Zach Parise	213	137	95	445	21.3%
Patrice Bergeron	174	155	98	427	23.0%
Jason Pominville	185	156	102	443	23.0%
Henrik Zetterberg	163	188	107	458	23.4%
Jakub Voracek	145	183	101	429	23.5%
Anze Kopitar	200	197	125	522	23.9%
Milan Lucic	159	143	96	398	24.1%
David Krejci	146	210	114	470	24.3%
Claude Giroux	157	181	114	452	25.2%
Paul Stastny	149	163	109	421	25.9%
Martin St. Louis	153	143	104	400	26.0%
Loui Eriksson	169	134	109	412	26.5%
Mike Ribeiro	112	171	103	386	26.7%
David Backes	167	117	105	389	27.0%
Joe Thornton	131	236	142	509	27.9%
Nicklas Backstrom	157	211	147	515	28.5%
Jamie Benn	195	131	131	457	28.7%
Ryan Getzlaf	158	233	160	551	29.0%
Justin Williams	151	118	115	384	29.9%
Mikko Koivu	120	131	126	377	33.4%
Henrik Sedin	117	215	176	508	34.6%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Goal-scorers tend to do better based on this metric, and playmakers do worse (hence Ovechkin in 1st, while Henrik Sedin is in last). This makes sense, since a higher (lower) percentage of Ovechkin's (Sedin's) points are from goals, his reliance on assists, both primary and secondary, is lower (higher).

Crosby still has the 5th lowest reliance on secondary assists during this period (again, among top 50 ES scorers over the past 11 seasons). Compared to the group average, Crosby scored 12 extra goals, 13 extra primary assists, and 26 fewer secondary assists.

Heads exploding, oh the humanity!

 

[Beauner]

This is a classic bandwagon logical fallacy.

your entire post history is a logical fallacy

 

[MadLuke]

Again not really a wow factor stat, at least when trying to figure out who is a top 4/5 forward of all time. I do not care if he played the most minutes in the playoffs if he was also not the best (actual) point scorer or goal getter.

It is not a wow stats for a star first liner at all, it is just an average one, but that show Crosby is far from a too small sample size amount of game to discredit is PPG dominance over all is peer, 943 RS game is a lot more than the Forsberg (580)/Lindros (678)/Bure (702)/Kariya(739)/Lemieux(745), number of RS games after their 31 year's old season. And I doubt that the era when he missed most of is game would have significantly lower than is career average PPG, it was mostly during it's peak year's.

is considered the best because they had a great PPG.

Over large sample ? Why not, what could possibly be a better measure ?

 

[FDBluth]

your entire post history is a logical fallacy

lolololol

 

[bobholly39]

Messier?
3rd in alltime points
2nd in all time games played
6 Stanley Cups
11 30+ goal seasons
2 Hart Trophy's
1 Conn Smythe
Seems like a pretty good resume to me.

I really hate seeing "tunnel vision" posts like this. Nobody is saying Messier doesn't have a good resume - it's just that it's not top 4 forward ever worthy. Simply posting his accomplishments proves nothing if you don't post the accomplishments of other top forwards and compare. And if/when you do that - then no, Messier definitely does not have a case for 4th forward ever.

Top 10 is more arguable, but i'd say even that he's outside of. Although he's probably right near the edge of 10th place, somewhere in the 10-15 range.

 

[Gunnersaurus Rex]

I really hate seeing "tunnel vision" posts like this. Nobody is saying Messier doesn't have a good resume - it's just that it's not top 4 forward ever worthy. Simply posting his accomplishments proves nothing if you don't post the accomplishments of other top forwards and compare. And if/when you do that - then no, Messier definitely does not have a case for 4th forward ever.

Top 10 is more arguable, but i'd say even that he's outside of. Although he's probably right near the edge of 10th place, somewhere in the 10-15 range.

Messier rankings:
Points - 3rd
Playoff Points - 2nd
Games Played - 2nd
Goals - 6th
Assists - 3rd
Stanley Cups - 10th all time. 1st in post original 6 era.

If not Messier 4th - then who?