Is Sidney Crosby on track to be (or already is) the 4th best forward ever?

[newfy]

Hes definitely behind Gretzky, Howe and Lemieux. But there are some other guys that make it interesting, especially Bobby Hull. I'm not sure that Crosby can pass him at this point. I think Crosby is mostly done winning major awards and I think right now hes behind Hull still.

I have trouble where I put him with Ovechkin. Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer of all time and has more Hart trophies. I have trouble saying Crosby is 4th but Ovechkin isnt right there with him

 

[bobholly39]

Messier rankings:
Points - 3rd
Playoff Points - 2nd
Games Played - 2nd
Goals - 6th
Assists - 3rd
Stanley Cups - 10th all time. 1st in post original 6 era.

If not Messier 4th - then who?

Hull, Beliveau, Crosby, Rocket Richard, Jagr....take your pick. All of these guys have a better case than Messier as 4th best forward ever.

Maybe you can rationalize putting Messier above 1-2 of these guys depending on which criteria you value most - but not above all of them.

Then you also have guys like Morenz, Lafleur, Mikita, Ovechkin, Esposito...

Lots of great forwards in NHL history. Messier is one of them - but he's not the 4th best ever. He's in the 10-15 range at best.

 

[bobholly39]

Hes definitely behind Gretzky, Howe and Lemieux. But there are some other guys that make it interesting, especially Bobby Hull. I'm not sure that Crosby can pass him at this point. I think Crosby is mostly done winning major awards and I think right now hes behind Hull still.

I have trouble where I put him with Ovechkin. Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer of all time and has more Hart trophies. I have trouble saying Crosby is 4th but Ovechkin isnt right there with him

He's still only 31. Guys like Joe Sakic, Martin St Louis and many other forwards had great seasons and won awards in their 30s. It's probably fair to say Crosby is no longer the best player in the world - but he's still very, very close to the top level.

Sidney Crosby winning another Hart/Ross, more, or a smythe or such - is still very plausible. I wouldn't count him out of major awards just yet.

Look no further than Ovechkin. He's 2 years older and just won a smythe - and we'll see if Caps make it far enough but he could win another. He just added a Rocket.

Don't think we can discount those guys winning more major awards still.

 

[newfy]

He's still only 31. Guys like Joe Sakic, Martin St Louis and many other forwards had great seasons and won awards in their 30s. It's probably fair to say Crosby is no longer the best player in the world - but he's still very, very close to the top level.

Sidney Crosby winning another Hart/Ross, more, or a smythe or such - is still very plausible. I wouldn't count him out of major awards just yet.

Look no further than Ovechkin. He's 2 years older and just won a smythe - and we'll see if Caps make it far enough but he could win another. He just added a Rocket.

Don't think we can discount those guys winning more major awards still.

Ovechkin adding rockets is different than Crosby winning though. Crosby doesnt have the shot to win rockets and much more of an overall game is needed to win a hart or art ross. I just dont really see Crosby doing it over the current young group of players in the league. Sakic and St Louis won those awards in a weird transition time for the NHL before the new guard was fully in the league but before the old guys had fully left. A SMythe is possible but I cant see his team doing much in the post season for a couple more years, maybe if they re-tool, but by then hes even older.

The smart money is on guys like Kucherov, McDavid, Mackinnon and others who are all 25ish and just hitting their stride. Yes, Crosby could win another one but I really doubt it,the league isnt as nice to older players as it used to be

 

[Gunnersaurus Rex]

Hull, Beliveau, Crosby, Rocket Richard, Jagr....take your pick. All of these guys have a better case than Messier as 4th best forward ever.

Maybe you can rationalize putting Messier above 1-2 of these guys depending on which criteria you value most - but not above all of them.

Then you also have guys like Morenz, Lafleur, Mikita, Ovechkin, Esposito...

Lots of great forwards in NHL history. Messier is one of them - but he's not the 4th best ever. He's in the 10-15 range at best.

10-15 range? Lol, that's just ridiculous...clearly have a anti-Messier slant. That's okay.

But how you would put Crosby in the 4th best makes no sense. He doesn't have the resume to justify that at all.

 

[Gunnersaurus Rex]

He's still only 31. Guys like Joe Sakic, Martin St Louis and many other forwards had great seasons and won awards in their 30s. It's probably fair to say Crosby is no longer the best player in the world - but he's still very, very close to the top level.

Sidney Crosby winning another Hart/Ross, more, or a smythe or such - is still very plausible. I wouldn't count him out of major awards just yet.

Look no further than Ovechkin. He's 2 years older and just won a smythe - and we'll see if Caps make it far enough but he could win another. He just added a Rocket.

Don't think we can discount those guys winning more major awards still.

This will not happen. Only 2 players in the last 70 years have won the Art Ross over the age of 31. Gretzky and St. Louis. And St.Louis's win was done in the shortened season so in a sense that deserves as asterisk. Crosby had a very good year and still had only 80% of the points that the Art Ross leader did.

Since 1963 only 2 players have won the Hart over the age of 31, Hasek and Gordie Howe. That's not happening either.

As for a Smythe, the Pens are in decline. They'll be lucky to make the playoffs next year and the years after that.

 

[daver]

Messier rankings:
Points - 3rd
Playoff Points - 2nd
Games Played - 2nd
Goals - 6th
Assists - 3rd
Stanley Cups - 10th all time. 1st in post original 6 era.

If not Messier 4th - then who?

Why don't you have Messier 2nd or 3rd based on those metrics? Seems like he should be above Mario and/or Howe.

 

[Gunnersaurus Rex]

Why don't you have Messier 2nd or 3rd based on those metrics? Seems like he should be above Mario and/or Howe.

I didn't see Howe play, so will go by what historians say. He had 6 Art Ross Trophy's, 6 Hart Tophy's, 4 Stanley Cups and was the All-time leading scorer for almost 40 years until Gretzky came along. He's clearly #2 all time.

I watched Lemieux play. He was an elite skilled player. Best player in the league for a number of years. 6 Art Ross's, 3 Harts, 2 Conn Smythe's. Clearly #3.

What is your argument for putting Crosby ahead of Messier. I have yet to hear a valid argument.

 

[daver]

I didn't see Howe play, so will go by what historians say. He had 6 Art Ross Trophy's, 6 Hart Tophy's, 4 Stanley Cups and was the All-time leading scorer for almost 40 years until Gretzky came along. He's clearly #2 all time.

I watched Lemieux play. He was an elite skilled player. Best player in the league for a number of years. 6 Art Ross's, 3 Harts, 2 Conn Smythe's. Clearly #3.

What is your argument for putting Crosby ahead of Messier. I have yet to hear a valid argument.

Far superior Art Ross finishes, a clearly superior offensive player with a an era best playoff resume including 3 Cups in a 30 team league.

 

[Gunnersaurus Rex]

Far superior Art Ross finishes, a clearly superior offensive player with a an era best playoff resume including 3 Cups in a 30 team league.

Sorry, that's a incredibly weak rebuttal.

So because there were 4 more tams in the NHL, Crosby's 3 Cups are better than Messier's 6? One could argue that the league was watered down, thus easier to win Cups in the Crosby era.

Didn't Crosby only win 2 Art Rosses? I'd say the offensive talent in Messier era was much greater than Crosby's and harder to win the Art Ross. Messier had to compete with Gretzky, Messier, Jagr. Who did Crosby compete against? Which Superstar did he battle?

What else you got for Crosby because so far I hear an argument for a 10-15 all-time player.

 

[Czech Your Math]

Messier rankings:
Points - 3rd
Playoff Points - 2nd
Games Played - 2nd
Goals - 6th
Assists - 3rd
Stanley Cups - 10th all time. 1st in post original 6 era.

If not Messier 4th - then who?

Messier's argument relies heavily on team success. He was a strong playoff performer and a physical two-way player. He stands out in a few areas, which gives him a better shot at #4 than most. I think a comparison to Richard would be interesting.

Hes definitely behind Gretzky, Howe and Lemieux. But there are some other guys that make it interesting, especially Bobby Hull. I'm not sure that Crosby can pass him at this point. I think Crosby is mostly done winning major awards and I think right now hes behind Hull still.

I have trouble where I put him with Ovechkin. Ovechkin is the greatest goal scorer of all time and has more Hart trophies. I have trouble saying Crosby is 4th but Ovechkin isnt right there with him

There's probably 5-10 forwards with an argument for 4th, but I think it comes down to Hull vs. Jagr.
Both were great goal scorers (edge Hull) and point producers (edge Jagr), as well as great possession players (edge Jagr) and strong playoff performers. They didn't have as much team success as some other greats, but that was the factor least in their control.

 

[Czech Your Math]

Ovechkin adding rockets is different than Crosby winning though. Crosby doesnt have the shot to win rockets and much more of an overall game is needed to win a hart or art ross. I just dont really see Crosby doing it over the current young group of players in the league. Sakic and St Louis won those awards in a weird transition time for the NHL before the new guard was fully in the league but before the old guys had fully left. A SMythe is possible but I cant see his team doing much in the post season for a couple more years, maybe if they re-tool, but by then hes even older.

The smart money is on guys like Kucherov, McDavid, Mackinnon and others who are all 25ish and just hitting their stride. Yes, Crosby could win another one but I really doubt it,the league isnt as nice to older players as it used to be

I agree. I think Crosby would have to be close to his peak full season form, which is asking a lot at age 32, and even more so every subsequent year. I think that's highly unlikely, since Crosb6%y was unusually rested for the '14 season (99 RS GP in previous 3 seasons). If we assume he maxes out around the best of his past 5 seasons, that would be '17:

N = # of teams in league
'17 Crosby: 120% of top 1N scorers, 133% of top 2N scorers, 143% of top 3N scorers

Excluding the '13 lockout season, these are worst R0ss-winning seasons since '05 lockout (if you exclude Crosby in '07 & '14):

Vs. 1N, 2N, 3N
'14 Getzlaf 116%, 129%, 139%
'15 Benn 121%, 131%, 140%
'07 Thornton 125%, 141%, 154%
'18 McDavid 126%, 142%, 154%

So it would probably take a trough similar to '14 & '15 for Crosby to really have a good chance at winning another Ross. Another single season like either of those would probably require:

A. McDavid to sustain a substantial injury (improbable, but very possible)
B. Kucherov to not come anywhere close to his '19 season (probable?)
C. MacKinnon to not improve substantially from his age 22-23 seasons (improbable, but very possible)
D. Gaudreau to not improve substantially from his age 25 season (probable?)
E. Kane (1 yr. younger than Crosby) or Malkin (1 yr. older) not edging him out (Kane did in '19, Malkin in'18)

McDavid could get injured, but even then Crosby would likely have to be in his best age 28+ form and battle at least a couple of Kucherov, MacKinnon, Gaudreau, Kane/Malkin, etc. for the Ross.

 

[daver]

Sorry, that's a incredibly weak rebuttal.

So because there were 4 more tams in the NHL, Crosby's 3 Cups are better than Messier's 6? One could argue that the league was watered down, thus easier to win Cups in the Crosby era.

So Beliveau and M. Richard >> Messier?

Mario only has two Cups and is behind Messier in career regular season and playoff points.

You are all over the map to pump up Messier. Crosby is clearly the superior hockey player

 

[daver]

Didn't Crosby only win 2 Art Rosses? I'd say the offensive talent in Messier era was much greater than Crosby's and harder to win the Art Ross. Messier had to compete with Gretzky, Messier, Jagr. Who did Crosby compete against? Which Superstar did he battle?.

You are clearly unwilling to provide context, we are done here.

 

[Gunnersaurus Rex]

You are clearly unwilling to provide context, we are done here.

What context are you looking for. Crosby played in an era of lesser high end players. Doesn't have the resume to be looked at for top 4 or 5 all time.
You certainly haven't provided one solid argument for Crosby other than to say he's better. Likely because there isn't one.
So yes, we are done.

 

[bobholly39]

10-15 range? Lol, that's just ridiculous...clearly have a anti-Messier slant. That's okay.

But how you would put Crosby in the 4th best makes no sense. He doesn't have the resume to justify that at all.

On the history section we just did a ranking of top 100 players of all time and he came in 11th among forwards.

Personally regarding Crosby as the 4th best forward ever - I like the fact that he was the best player in the world for so long (and i use the word 'best' loosely, as co-best in Ovechkin years passes too). I really value that level of top end consistency, and is one of the things i like most about his resume. He is missing some full season finishes, but on a per game level he was on top of the league most seasons in his prime. And his playoff record is as strong as most. Very well rounded resume - international success, etc. Goal-scoring trophies too. No real weaknesses.

Now i'm not here trying to make a very strong case as to why Crosby is absolutely t he 4th best ever - i'm just saying he has a case and some of the above are arguments why. If we're talking specifically Crosby vs Messier - Crosby was the better player, quite clearly so. If you want to pick others above Crosby for 4th ever (Beliveau, Hull, etc) that's fine.

I don't have an anti-Messier bias at all - you seem to be very pro-Messier though. You say Messier has the 3rd most points ever, the 3rd most assists and the 2nd in games played. That's great. Ron Francis does better in those metrics - and he's nowhere near the best ever. You can't just look at those placements to draw conclusion, makes no sense.

10 to 15 for me for Messier among forwards.

This will not happen. Only 2 players in the last 70 years have won the Art Ross over the age of 31. Gretzky and St. Louis. And St.Louis's win was done in the shortened season so in a sense that deserves as asterisk. Crosby had a very good year and still had only 80% of the points that the Art Ross leader did.

Since 1963 only 2 players have won the Hart over the age of 31, Hasek and Gordie Howe. That's not happening either.

As for a Smythe, the Pens are in decline. They'll be lucky to make the playoffs next year and the years after that.

Maybe, maybe not. I just still feel as though Crosby, Malkin and Ovechkin are all 3 still near to their peak ability. I think when they're "on" - they have the ability to be the best in the world. And while I still believe that - I'll always feel they have a shot to win the ross/hart (probably not Ross for Ovechkin, but Hart). All i'm saying is don't assume Crosby is done winning awards - he's still only 32 and could add some more hardware.

 

[Goalie guy]

I see a lot of back and forth fighting right now we don't know as he is not done playing. The guy is a work out freak and loves the game. As a Wings fan I don't like him but hes damn good lets wait and see where his number end up.

 

[Midnight Judges]

On the history section we just did a ranking of top 100 players of all time and he came in 11th among forwards.

There were some neat conversations but that project was fatally tainted from the start by bad ground rules (that were not followed anyway), a non-representative group of participants, massive bias, and a severe lack of logic.

You guys wasted your time. The result will not age well.

 

[wetcoast]

10-15 range? Lol, that's just ridiculous...clearly have a anti-Messier slant. That's okay.

But how you would put Crosby in the 4th best makes no sense. He doesn't have the resume to justify that at all.

You really need to look closer at Crosby's resume.

Outside of the big 3 no one has a 14 year start to their career like Crosby did.....period.

Regular season and playoffs.

 

[goonybird]

Ovechkin is a better goal scorer. Crosby is a vastly better hockey player.

 

[wetcoast]

There were some neat conversations but that project was fatally tainted from the start by bad ground rules (that were not followed anyway), a non-representative group of participants, massive bias, and a severe lack of logic.

You guys wasted your time. The result will not age well.

While some of what you say has merit it would really help your case to provide a top 100 player list yourself.

 

[bobholly39]

Crosby has the highest lows out of possibly any player in the history of the NHL by age 31. Probably not including Gretzky - but it might include some of the big 4. I think it includes everyone outside of the big 4 though. His consistency is his best attribute - and he's not declined yet.

That's what I like best about his resume. His "highs" aren't as high as they likely would have been without injuries, otherwise his case would be almost a slam dunk for 4th forward ever. Hell he might even give some of the top 3 a run for their money in an alternate universe with no major injuries.

 

[daver]

What context are you looking for. Crosby played in an era of lesser high end players. Doesn't have the resume to be looked at for top 4 or 5 all time.
You certainly haven't provided one solid argument for Crosby other than to say he's better. Likely because there isn't one.
So yes, we are done.

Let's remove Wayne and Mario as statistical anomalies and see how Messier does.

Art Ross placings - 1, 2, 5, 5, 7, 12

vs.

Crosby - 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 6, 10

See a difference?

Messier has a great argument to be rated higher based on his playoff resume but he also has this argument over Mario and Orr too.

Crosby is clearly ahead of him.

 

[Mrb1p]

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Sid, Bill and Hull.

Sid has done that with injuries too. Theres no contest that hes the 4th best forward all time now, hes running down Howe.

 

[Czech Your Math]

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