In Chevy We Trust

[Mortimer Snerd]

what's the temperature on chevy these days? we got a coaching change, not enough GP to evaluate imo. we'll see how his roster plays under D. Lowry for rest of the year.

but to-date id say the team has underperformed. covid, injuries have put a wrench into things for sure, but this is not something unique to the Jets. Every team is going through it.

Defensively still rating quite bad even w/ Chevy's big additions. Bottom-6 still unproductive too.

Thoughts?

Still just too soon to say.

Can't even quite judge his drafting right now. He did well until 2015. The jury is out on the performance since then. We need to see some results on Ves, Heinola, Perfetti and Lucius. He still hasn't had a hit in the 2nd rd. Harkins is the only 1 to have made the NHL so far and he isn't lighting anything up. Will Samberg, Gus or Chibrikov turn that record around? We haven't had anyone from later than the 2nd rd break through either since Appleton from '15. In fact, no one since Laine and Stanley from '16 has made the jump.

That's not much of a drafting record recently but we have quite a few players showing promise who could turn that 180*.

His trades have generally been good, but he has only traded players who wanted out. He needs to have made a few roster building trades, other than his TD rentals.

The acid tests are the quality of his roster, his prospect pool and his coaching staff. The jury is out on all 3 right now.

I'm interested in how he handles the rest of this season and the coming off-season. And of course, how this season turns out.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

The 2021-22 Jets are worse than the 2011-12 Jets that arrived from Atlanta a decade ago. At this point in the season:

2011-12 19-14-5 That's 19 Ws and 19 Ls
2021-22 17-14-7 That's 17 Ws and 21 Ls

Considering we had the worst starting goaltender in the league in 11-12, and we currently have a top tier goaltender in Helle if you look at goals saves above expected, that means that our skaters are much worse. Plus, we are spending to the cap now.

It's time to take a cold, hard look at what Chevy has done since the 17-18 season. He built a good team to get to the WCF, but since the mid point of December of 2018, this team has been on a downward trajectory in spite of the fact that TNSE's wallet is open wide.

 

[razorsedge]

Before this season started, did anyone think this roster would underperformed this badly? I didn't.

This season is on the players and their individual performances and not the GM. Or the coaching staff.

Roster changes need to be made, and I still have faith in Chevy to make the necessary changes. I think Dave Lowry will continue being the coach and I'm not sure how I feel about that yet.

 

[gojetsgo]

The 2021-22 Jets are worse than the 2011-12 Jets that arrived from Atlanta a decade ago. At this point in the season:

2011-12 19-14-5 That's 19 Ws and 19 Ls
2021-22 17-14-7 That's 17 Ws and 21 Ls

Considering we had the worst starting goaltender in the league in 11-12, and we currently have a top tier goaltender in Helle if you look at goals saves above expected, that means that our skaters are much worse. Plus, we are spending to the cap now.

It's time to take a cold, hard look at what Chevy has done since the 17-18 season. He built a good team to get to the WCF, but since the mid point of December of 2018, this team has been on a downward trajectory in spite of the fact that TNSE's wallet is open wide.

I'm sorry but even if we do have a worse record then our first season this roster is still >>>>> even our prospect pool is >>> then when atlanta came here

 

[cbcwpg]

I think if you ask anyone... going into this season the Jets were going to be a much better team then what we have seen so far this season. We are a worse team because something is just wrong some where.

Maurice bailed... not because he thought the team would be better without him, but because he saw what this team really was, and knew he was going to get fired in short order.

 

[DRW204]

I'm sorry but even if we do have a worse record then our first season this roster is still >>>>> even our prospect pool is >>> then when atlanta came here

that's the sad part...

 

[Al Camino]

Still just too soon to say.

Can't even quite judge his drafting right now. He did well until 2015. The jury is out on the performance since then. We need to see some results on Ves, Heinola, Perfetti and Lucius. He still hasn't had a hit in the 2nd rd. Harkins is the only 1 to have made the NHL so far and he isn't lighting anything up. Will Samberg, Gus or Chibrikov turn that record around? We haven't had anyone from later than the 2nd rd break through either since Appleton from '15. In fact, no one since Laine and Stanley from '16 has made the jump.

That's not much of a drafting record recently but we have quite a few players showing promise who could turn that 180*.

His trades have generally been good, but he has only traded players who wanted out. He needs to have made a few roster building trades, other than his TD rentals.

The acid tests are the quality of his roster, his prospect pool and his coaching staff. The jury is out on all 3 right now.

I'm interested in how he handles the rest of this season and the coming off-season. And of course, how this season turns out.

I would say he's no better or worse than the average GM. He's made some astute picks. Scheifele and Truba. Got lucky with what fell to him with Connor, Ehlers and Perfetti. Won a lottery with Liane. Most of the second and third rounds have been nothing to write home about some of the later round picks up until 2015 seemed good but otherwise nothing to write home about. Maybe it's time to put the narrative that the Jets win the draft every year to bed.

 

[Al Camino]

I think if you ask anyone... going into this season the Jets were going to be a much better team then what we have seen so far this season. We are a worse team because something is just wrong some where.

Maurice bailed... not because he thought the team would be better without him, but because he saw what this team really was, and knew he was going to get fired in short order.

I suspect that TSNE went to him and said there are two ways this is going to go. The option that he took somehow allows him to persevere his professional reputation. Which is odd because his record speaks for itself.

 

[surixon]

I would say he's no better or worse than the average GM. He's made some astute picks. Scheifele and Truba. Got lucky with what fell to him with Connor, Ehlers and Perfetti. Won a lottery with Liane. Most of the second and third rounds have been nothing to write home about some of the later round picks up until 2015 seemed good but otherwise nothing to write home about. Maybe it's time to put the narrative that the Jets win the draft every year to bed.

I mean he got a top 2 to 3 goalie late in the draft. That is pretty much on par with picking up a Stone/Point late. Other then that he's drafted a good suppression physical 3C, a real good two/way middle 6 winger, a fourth line winger and third pair dmen so not a bad record post first round.

As for the last 4 to 5 drafts we need to keep in mind that we generally picked later in the first round or didn't have one 2018. We also traded a tonne of picks trying to contend so we don't have the volume of prospects that we had from later rounds prior to 2016.

Having said that Perfetti looks to be establishing himself in the top 6. We have Samberg showing well on defense and Heinola and Gus are NHL ready imo. So that is another 3 prospects I expect to contribute on the team in the next year or two.

 

[gojetsgo]

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I would say he's no better or worse than the average GM. He's made some astute picks. Scheifele and Truba. Got lucky with what fell to him with Connor, Ehlers and Perfetti. Won a lottery with Liane. Most of the second and third rounds have been nothing to write home about some of the later round picks up until 2015 seemed good but otherwise nothing to write home about. Maybe it's time to put the narrative that the Jets win the draft every year to bed.

Yup.
But, OTOH, If Harkins gets just a bit better, avg 3rd line winger. If most of Samberg, Kovacevic, Gawanke, Gus, Chisholm, Smith, Lundmark and any 1 of the goalies pan out, his later round record will suddenly be much improved. And maybe add 1 or 2 of Chibrikov, Kuzmin and Rashevski. I'm waiting on decisions on a few of those guys before I label Chevy 1 way or the other.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

I'm sorry but even if we do have a worse record then our first season this roster is still >>>>> even our prospect pool is >>> then when atlanta came here

That's what I thought too. But you are as good as your record. Our record is worse than the Atlanta Jets.

We are close to 1/2 way through the season. I guess there is some time to turn it around, but the team is not showing us what it would take for that to happen.

 

[surixon]

That's what I thought too. But you are as good as your record. Our record is worse than the Atlanta Jets.

We are close to 1/2 way through the season. I guess there is some time to turn it around, but the team is not showing us what it would take for that to happen.

Some interesting stats:

Jets are 7th in scoring chances created per 60, we are 12th in high dangerous chances created per 60.

However our conversion rate on them is 21st in scoring chances per 60 and 24th in high dangerous chances per 60. We also have the 25th shooting percentage at 5 on 5 this year.

To me this team is just going through a year where we are converting much less then expected.

I think this team has played a decent a.ount better then its record this year. To me it wouldn't be the worst thing to have an off year due to variance and het another top 10 pick and likely rebound strongly next year when things normalize.

 

[gojetsgo]

That's what I thought too. But you are as good as your record. Our record is worse than the Atlanta Jets.

We are close to 1/2 way through the season. I guess there is some time to turn it around, but the team is not showing us what it would take for that to happen.

I don't believe this to necessarily be true, look at the 2018/19 blues they were in last place on january 1st and went on to win the cup the kings finished 8th in the west when they won there first cup and on the flip side us from 2018/19 we were 1st in the central for a large portion of the year. there will always be teams that are better then their record just as there will be teams that are worse than their record, we will find out where this team stands at the end of the season

 

[Jimmyjets]

Some interesting stats:

Jets are 7th in scoring chances created per 60, we are 12th in high dangerous chances created per 60.

However our conversion rate on them is 21st in scoring chances per 60 and 24th in high dangerous chances per 60. We also have the 25th shooting percentage at 5 on 5 this year.

To me this team is just going through a year where we are converting much less then expected.

I think this team has played a decent a.ount better then its record this year. To me it wouldn't be the worst thing to have an off year due to variance and het another top 10 pick and likely rebound strongly next year when things normalize.

Or we just regress to the mean the rest of the year and go on a super heater including a playoff run... I'd rather be good but if we aren't going to be good than we should be bad. Just missing the playoffs sucks.

 

[surixon]

Or we just regress to the mean the rest of the year and go on a super heater including a playoff run... I'd rather be good but if we aren't going to be good than we should be bad. Just missing the playoffs sucks.

Yeah there is time for that as well. I'm just going on if things don't change the rest of the year.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

I don't believe this to necessarily be true, look at the 2018/19 blues they were in last place on january 1st and went on to win the cup the kings finished 8th in the west when they won there first cup and on the flip side us from 2018/19 we were 1st in the central for a large portion of the year. there will always be teams that are better then their record just as there will be teams that are worse than their record, we will find out where this team stands at the end of the season

Both of those teams are as good as their records. They both won championships. Their records are of champions.

The 2018-19 Jets were a 500 team wins and losses from Dec 2018 on. We lost our way out of Division 1st place down the stretch into the post season. The Blues were the strongest team from Jan on that year, won their way into the postseason, easily dispatched of the flailing Jets and went on to win the Cup. They are as good as their record was. Champions.

Maybe this years Jets are going to develop into a championship team, but I find that exceedingly unlikely.

In Fanlandia, people like to think their team is better than their records. Just a bounce or an injury or a bad call away from winning it all. In the real world of pro sports, your record is who you are.

 

[gojetsgo]

Both of those teams are as good as their records. They both won championships. Their records are of champions.

The 2018-19 Jets were a 500 team wins and losses from Dec 2018 on. We lost our way out of Division 1st place down the stretch into the post season. The Blues were the strongest team from Jan on that year, won their way into the postseason, easily dispatched of the flailing Jets and went on to win the Cup. They are as good as their record was. Champions.

Maybe this years Jets are going to develop into a championship team, but I find that exceedingly unlikely.

In Fanlandia, people like to think their team is better than their records. Just a bounce or an injury or a bad call away from winning it all. In the real world of pro sports, your record is who you are.

st louis was in LAST place in the nhl.... how can you say they were only as good as their record when they went on to win the cup...

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

st louis was in LAST place in the nhl.... how can you say they were only as good as their record when they went on to win the cup...

How can you say they werent? Their play was horribad.

That's as good as they were as a team at that moment in time. They made personnel changes and adjustments to the team. Different team, different results, different record.

 

[DRW204]

st louis was in LAST place in the nhl.... how can you say they were only as good as their record when they went on to win the cup...

the stl team that was in last place wasn't exactly the same one that won the cup. the switch from jake allen to binnington basically catapulted them. it's only 1 player, but goaltending is an ultimate equalizer can make or break your team even if you rate well defensively. allen was sub-900 sv% as a starter. Binnington from Jan 1 onward had a 930 sv%.

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

the stl team that was in last place wasn't exactly the same one that won the cup. the switch from jake allen to binnington basically catapulted them. it's only 1 player, but goaltending is an ultimate equalizer can make or break your team even if you rate well defensively. allen was sub-900 sv% as a starter. Binnington from Jan 1 onward had a 930 sv%.

The move to Binnington, and also the coaching change were two big changes.

 

[ello]

Some interesting stats:

Jets are 7th in scoring chances created per 60, we are 12th in high dangerous chances created per 60.

However our conversion rate on them is 21st in scoring chances per 60 and 24th in high dangerous chances per 60. We also have the 25th shooting percentage at 5 on 5 this year.

To me this team is just going through a year where we are converting much less then expected.

I think this team has played a decent a.ount better then its record this year. To me it wouldn't be the worst thing to have an off year due to variance and het another top 10 pick and likely rebound strongly next year when things normalize.

Out of curiosity where do they sit for scoring chances against per 60

 

[DRW204]

iirc
after berube was hired they became a defensive stalwart of a team and one of the best teams at limiting quality chances against. that + great goaltending was a recipe for their success. they were kind of middle of the pack in goal scoring.

The move to Binnington, and also the coaching change were two big changes.

 

[cbcwpg]

JMO, but I think after the 17-18 run and the disappointment in 18-19 getting knocked out by St.L... Chevy honestly thought that this team could just bounce back and get back to a successful playoffs in a year or two, by just having to fill in some holes.

Not that it was in his control, but I think he got caught off guard and totally underestimated the loss that Buff was going to have , and still has, on this team. I personally think if Buff never got hurt and never retired, the Jets might have won the Stanley Cup in 19-20 ( the last year of Buff's contract ).

Now we are at the point where "the core" is falling off or will be or will move on due to contracts or whatever, and need to be replaced.

IMO, the biggest mistake a GM can make is not recognizing the time to do a rebuild and hanging on to what he has built for too long. We had our window ( it's sad that it was only for 1 season ) but we need to do something.

 

[Gm0ney]

Out of curiosity where do they sit for scoring chances against per 60

Over the last 10 games: 26th in xGA/60, 25th in SCA/60.
2021-22 to date: 27th in xGA/60, 24th in SCA/60...so not much difference with Lowry at the helm.

I still think the Jets tactics are doing more harm than good. They still look like a trainwreck in their own end for long stretches. This lineup should be better than this. Although our forwards are some of the worst in the league defensively...but that's on the coaching staff - I mean, I've been informed that defense can be taught, right?

Scheifele is the 7th worst forward in the league (min 100 minutes TOI 5v5) in xGA/60. There are 5 Jets in the top-50 worst xGA/60: Scheifele, Wheeler (23), Ehlers (34), Copp (41), Connor (50). The best Jet in xGA/60 right now is Cole Perfetti - but he hasn't had time to absorb all of this coaching staff's wisdom yet, so let's give him time. Or alternately clean f***ing house and get rid of all these coaches.

Anyway, I know this is the Chevy thread and I'm blaming the coaches - but who's in charge of firing coaches again? Chevy! (jk it's Chipman). I do find it hard to believe that even if Chevy had tried to assemble the worst collective group of defensive forwards in the league he'd be this successful.

By letting Maurice gracefully resign and installing an assistant as interim coach, it seems like Jets management believe the direction they're going is correct. No new message, just a new voice (didn't Maurice say that on his way out the door?). We'll see what happens in the offseason, I guess.