If you're Matthews and Marner's agent it would be negligent not to advise them to become RFA's

[TDK67]

I said this a few pages back but it bears repeating. Matthews loves the spotlight and big stage of Toronto. There's only one other market that could offer him that kind of notoriety and super stardom--Montreal. Since the Habs are a tire fire its unlikely he's signing an offer sheet by them anytime soon.

 

[Dustin]

Well, it's not like every offer sheet has to be an insane financial incentive compared to what their team offers them. Like if I'm Nylander, and I'm wanting 8m for 8 years (and I'd settle for let's say 7.2) and the Leafs are offering me only 6.5m for 8, and the Isles offer me 7.3m for 8 years, you're damn right I am signing that while hoping the Leafs match. Although I'd actually swing back to Toronto and tell them I've been offered that contract but won't tell them who did it. They can find that out when I sign it.

Couple of things, any other team other than Toronto can only offer a max contract of 7 years. Secondly any contract that averages more than $8.1 over 5 years would mean the Leafs get four 1st round picks. I doubt the Leafs would match that offer. All offer sheets AAV get divided by 5 years regardless if it's 5,6 or 7 years long. Therefore in order for a team to Offer Sheet Nylander over 7 years and still only have to pay a 1st,2nd and 3rd would have to offer him a $5.5 over 7 years deal. There's obviously no way Nylander would sign that and if he did the Leafs of course would match.

 

[The Apologist]

Ughhh, another Matthews thread?

 

[Tripod]

well 1rst off, i would argue the best way to "find room" is to not pay outrageous contract values to RFAs

2nd, sandin and little grin (both whom i love as our prospects) are still sometime away from "limelight ,cup contention roles". One can fairly argue thats where we are right now.

And that's fair to say. But I have also been a firm believer that it's better to pay your 22 year old big money for his 22-29 year old seasons, then pay for the 28-34 seasons when there is much more likely of a decline.

But again, I was just point out that paying the stars are rarely the issue....especially when it's for the 22-29 years. The cap issue come from signing non core guys to longer, bigger contracts.

With Rielly, Dermott, Liljegren and Sandin, the Leafs have the ability to trade a guy like Zaitsev, and replace him in the top 4 with a cheap, ELC and then can also bridge one of the guys for 2 years. That gives them a 5 year window of a cheap, underpaid Dman. That will have great value for the Leafs.

This was never a slight against the Leafs. It was to show that the Leafs have options and the doom and gloom some people spew about the cap can be fixed with a smart GM. It just might mean sacrificing a guy like Zaitsev.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Couple of things, any other team other than Toronto can only offer a max contract of 7 years. Secondly any contract that averages more than $8.1 over 5 years would mean the Leafs get four 1st round picks. I doubt the Leafs would match that offer. All offer sheets AAV get divided by 5 years regardless if it's 5,6 or 7 years long. Therefore in order for a team to Offer Sheet Nylander over 7 years and still only have to pay a 1st,2nd and 3rd would have to offer him a $5.5 over 7 years deal. There's obviously no way Nylander would sign that and if he did the Leafs of course would match.

I know how they work. But I'll give you the 7 years only. Slight oversight on my part. And if you're a GM, you don't worry about those 1sts. As you're hoping that they are the last pick in the 1st.

Off topic, but in my Be A GM, my RFA's never get offer sheeted. But if I trade them away, they do. It's very annoying

 

[Weezeric]

And that's fair to say. But I have also been a firm believer that it's better to pay your 22 year old big money for his 22-29 year old seasons, then pay for the 28-34 seasons when there is much more likely of a decline.

But again, I was just point out that paying the stars are rarely the issue....especially when it's for the 22-29 years. The cap issue come from signing non core guys to longer, bigger contracts.

With Rielly, Dermott, Liljegren and Sandin, the Leafs have the ability to trade a guy like Zaitsev, and replace him in the top 4 with a cheap, ELC and then can also bridge one of the guys for 2 years. That gives them a 5 year window of a cheap, underpaid Dman. That will have great value for the Leafs.

This was never a slight against the Leafs. It was to show that the Leafs have options and the doom and gloom some people spew about the cap can be fixed with a smart GM. It just might mean sacrificing a guy like Zaitsev.

Saying the leafs might have to sacrifice a guy like zaitsev is like the oilers saying they might have to sacrifice a guy like lucic. That contract is an anchor..

 

[Faltorvo]

Well, it's not like every offer sheet has to be an insane financial incentive compared to what their team offers them. Like if I'm Nylander, and I'm wanting 8m for 8 years (and I'd settle for let's say 7.2) and the Leafs are offering me only 6.5m for 8, and the Isles offer me 7.3m for 8 years, you're damn right I am signing that while hoping the Leafs match. Although I'd actually swing back to Toronto and tell them I've been offered that contract but won't tell them who did it. They can find that out when I sign it.

ok for starters, IIRC no team other then the leafs can offer more then 7 years.

2nd, leafs can fully ignore "supposed offer sheets" they can "make their call" on a actual signed sheet.

but to argue this in broad strokes is truly pointless for example

for arguments sake, we take your example, willi signs a 7.2/7.3 x 7/8 year deal , ok fine

now we have to look at, what team did he sign with , because a 7.3m x 7/8y is
4 1rsts as compensation

would you take 4 non lottery protected first 1rsts , i sure as hell would.

 

[Dustin]

I know how they work. But I'll give you the 7 years only. Slight oversight on my part. And if you're a GM, you don't worry about those 1sts. As you're hoping that they are the last pick in the 1st.

Off topic, but in my Be A GM, my RFA's never get offer sheeted. But if I trade them away, they do. It's very annoying

If I'm the Leafs though I jump at any deal that involves four 1st round picks. The depth alone you would get from that would be amazing and you basically have 8 chances over 4 years now to hit a guy picked late who turns into something special like a Pastrnak. In fact forget the OS, I am sure if any team offered the Leafs four 1st rounders for Nylander they would take it and run.

 

[Faltorvo]

That's pretty debatable. Zaitsev has not lived up to the expectations of that contract in any way, shape, or form. He's been brutal, and he knows it. He's also been fighting off injuries in the first year of his contract, so there's a lot more time for him to prove everyone wrong. We've seen the glimpses of his ability to be a two-way defenseman, so I'm fairly confident he'll make that contract a wash. But to say that it hasn't been a mistake when the results have been substandard is farcical.

I and coach babcock completely and utterly disagree with this entire post.

 

[The Best Leafs Ever]

Saying the leafs might have to sacrifice a guy like zaitsev is like the oilers saying they might have to sacrifice a guy like lucic. That contract is an anchor..

No it’s not, what are you smoking? I would rather sacrifice Hainsey, Gardiner before Zaitsev. And why compare to such a lowly team like Edmonton? Even with McDavid they are a complete joke and in the running for Jack Hughes. Our anchors are much more useful than their useful players.

 

[Dustin]

ok for starters, IIRC no team other then the leafs can offer more then 7 years.

2nd, leafs can fully ignore "supposed offer sheets" they can "make their call" on a actual signed sheet.

but to argue this in broad strokes is truly pointless for example

for arguments sake, we take your example, willi signs a 7.2/7.3 x 7/8 year deal , ok fine

now we have to look at, what team did he sign with , because a 7.3m x 7/8y is
4 1rsts as compensation

would you take 4 non lottery protected first 1rsts , i sure as hell would.

For Nylander? In a second, Hell I'd consider it very seriously for Marner and I think Marner while be the superior player between the two. Eight 1st round picks over 4 years would be filthy. All it would take is that team to have a major injury to their starting goalie or star player and suddenly you are drafting in the top 10.

 

[Faltorvo]

But both players are RFAs not UFAs. Is Marner going to get paid the 3rd best RW money in the league? He can ask for 9m, but the only real leverage he has if someone offers sheets a 9m contract.
If reports are true about Nylander asking for 8m....we he seen successful he has been getting anywhere near that money. He's a 6.5m player right now.

naw he is a 6m x 7y at best,,,he gets what Ehlers got, not a penny more.

 

[Dustin]

Saying the leafs might have to sacrifice a guy like zaitsev is like the oilers saying they might have to sacrifice a guy like lucic. That contract is an anchor..

Ok. Well instead of losing our star players because we have a bad contract, we can always add draft picks to said contract to move it. I'd much rather lose a bad contract and some draft picks than a superstar player.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

If I'm the Leafs though I jump at any deal that involves four 1st round picks. The depth alone you would get from that would be amazing and you basically have 8 chances over 4 years now to hit a guy picked late who turns into something special like a Pastrnak. In fact forget the OS, I am sure if any team offered the Leafs four 1st rounders for Nylander they would take it and run.

Yea there's a chance you end up drafting someone like Pastrnak. There's also the chance you draft someone like Hugh Jessiman

 

[Strangle]

Nobody is getting offer sheeted. But what I don't get is why GMs see them as a dick move. An RFA and a UFA are both free agents. Only difference is one comes with conditions. But neither has a contract with the team they last played for.

An offer sheet might not be signed but we will never know how many offer sheets have been offered.

Only the offer sheets that are signed by the player become known, and for good reason. How do we know that every team in the league hasn’t sent an offer sheet to Nylander? Simple answer is that we don’t.

So saying offer sheets are rare in itself is misleading. We have no idea how often they are sent to RFA’s, all we know is that a player signing one is rare.

 

[Faltorvo]

Matthews will get 13m+ and Marner is going to want 10. I would not be surprised to see an offer sheet(s) thrown at Matthews for 15x5 or something equally huge. There are probably 25 teams in the league that would benefit greatly from Matthews and could make the numbers work.

If Matthews stays in Toronto and signs for 13m, and Marner signs for 9-10m, and if you factor in tavares at 11m, that would be 34m locked up in THREE players. If the leafs and Nylander come to an agreement around 7m, that's 40m on 4 players.

That leaves 39m for the other 18 roster players. An average of 2.16m available PER player.

That is why people are making a big deal about this.

It's a good problem to have, but it will take some luck or some concessions from the players to make it work.

dang with the numbers you are putting out there

it makes one wonder what Rantanen will demand next season.

 

[Dustin]

Yea there's a chance you end up drafting someone like Pastrnak. There's also the chance you draft someone like Hugh Jessiman

Absolutely. Those chances are times 8. I would take them everytime. And that is only assuming that over the 4 years the team is successful. If there are injuries or who knows they could fall and now the Leafs are drafting much higher.

Look we obviously disagree but like I said if any team wants to offer four unprotected 1st round picks for Nylander we will take that and run.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

An offer sheet might not be signed but we will never know how many offer sheets have been offered.

Only the offer sheets that are signed by the player become known, and for good reason. How do we know that every team in the league hasn’t sent an offer sheet to Nylander? Simple answer is that we don’t.

So saying offer sheets are rare in itself is misleading. We have no idea how often they are sent to RFA’s, all we know is that a player signing one is rare.

Yea I made that point earlier. I'm sure offer sheets happen all the time. And a majority are more than likely in the area of what the player signs for. I'm sure the ones that are actually signed are the ones that are way more than the original team was offering.

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Absolutely. Those chances are times 8. I would take them everytime. And that is only assuming that over the 4 years the team is successful. If there are injuries or who knows they could fall and now the Leafs are drafting much higher.

Look we obviously disagree but like I said if any team wants to offer four unprotected 1st round picks for Nylander we will take that and run.

I would too if I were the Leafs. Whether it's a trade or done through an offer sheet. I sure as hell wouldn't be pissed about the offer sheet tho!

 

[Steve]

I don’t think they will both get to RFA. The Leafs have shown with Nylander, granted it’s been less than 2 weeks, that they will not be pushed around. Also, it’s rare that players get to RFA due to injury possibility etc... Nylander wasn’t a surprise bc he’s the least valuable of the 3 and he’s overshadowed here.

Imo one signs this season and the other signs before July 1 assuming the Leafs are being reasonable.

 

[EichHart]

Matthews is worth more than 4 1sts, he's that good.

 

[Faltorvo]

Matthews is worth more than 4 1sts, he's that good.

matty will never ever get offer sheeted you can book that

 

[AvsFan29]

dang with the numbers you are putting out there

it makes one wonder what Rantanen will demand next season.

It's probably going to be around 9x8.

If we can sign him for 8x8 I'd be pretty happy.

If he breaks 90 points or manages to break 100, Im not sure it will be less than 9.5

 

[biotk]

naw he is a 6m x 7y at best,,,he gets what Ehlers got, not a penny more.

The season is still young, but Nylander has been better than Ehlers this current season.

 

[TDK67]

And that's fair to say. But I have also been a firm believer that it's better to pay your 22 year old big money for his 22-29 year old seasons, then pay for the 28-34 seasons when there is much more likely of a decline.

But again, I was just point out that paying the stars are rarely the issue....especially when it's for the 22-29 years. The cap issue come from signing non core guys to longer, bigger contracts.

With Rielly, Dermott, Liljegren and Sandin, the Leafs have the ability to trade a guy like Zaitsev, and replace him in the top 4 with a cheap, ELC and then can also bridge one of the guys for 2 years. That gives them a 5 year window of a cheap, underpaid Dman. That will have great value for the Leafs.

This was never a slight against the Leafs. It was to show that the Leafs have options and the doom and gloom some people spew about the cap can be fixed with a smart GM. It just might mean sacrificing a guy like Zaitsev.

I think this is the only sensical post I've seen from a non-Leafs fan on this whole thing. You're 1000% right and I would bet a lot of money on Dubas feeling this way too.

They will keep Nylander (and Matthews and Marner) even if it means sacrificing a Zaitsev or Gardiner or Brown or whoever.

Elite talent is the hardest thing to acquire in the NHL and a smart GM will know they're much, much better off keeping elite YOUNG talent even if they have to overpay rather than keeping spare parts and/or exchanging that asset for spare parts.

Furthermore pretty much all examples of elite youth being traded have ended up as losses for the team making that move. Subban/Weber, Hall/Larsson, Jones/Johansen, Forsberg/Erat, Seguin/Eriksson, etc etc. There's just 0 evidence to suggest Dubas will be that dumb with this current situation.