If You Were Talbot Would You Re-Sign Here?

[shoop]

I was hoping/guessing that Talbot would have a 92%+ save pct this season and Nilsson would have approximately 91% save pct.

Talbot is about 1% short of that now... and Nilsson is right about where I hoped he would be.

To me Talbot is the "better" goalie based on his abilities and fundamentals but Nilsson with his size has the ability to stone teams over stretches as well.

I think they do make a good combo and it's nice that they could be shaping up as a pair of at least "average" goalies.

Keeping in mind that this D is clearly a bottom 5 group in the league, these two goalies may actually be an above average duo on a better club. Stick them on a team like LA and they'd probably look like one of the top 1A-1B duos in the league.

Those are a very specific set of wishes. How did you land on those?

 

[Consultant]

Good points in the last 10 comments.
Sounds like a good idea to wait see if Talbot can get to a .915, then sign him to a multi year deal before he gets too expensive (like if we waited until he had a .920).
Would work for me, 3 years around 2.5 would be great...

 

[MagicOilers73]

I think he would re-sign, but knows he's not having the greatest season(so far) & therefore won't get the kind of #1 pay he'd expect to get & would take a 2.5-3 mil for 2 year deal to prove himself of the #1 pay he could earn.

 

[Aerchon]

Fundamentally its been crystal clear throughout that Talbot is the much better goalie. His rebound control for instance being on a whole other level than Nillsons.

People take one aspect, some unlucky bad angle goals and extrapolated everything from that somehow determining that Talbot was bad in net.

Sometimes some bad breaks just occur. Every bad angle shot that has beat Talbot it looks like the puck has had eyes finding the most narror margins. On two of the to goals it was his own D putting it in. Shultz on one play took two whacks to put it in..

Fundamentally, it has not been clear.

Talbots rebound control has been better but his positioning, puck tracking, quickness, and aggressiveness has been worse IMO. Only marginally so, for differences in either goalie and both have shown to be been less than what a #1 should be so far.

I also don't like how deep he plays in his net.

His regularity for letting in back breaking goals against isn't Dubnyk level but if he continues to let softies in it will be. Teams are already focusing on just shooting from anywhere looking for those bad goals.

Plus Nilsson is bigger.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Those are a very specific set of wishes. How did you land on those?

I looked at what the average and above average save pct stats generally are each season... and I was of the opinion that Talbot would be/is an above average goaltender... and Nilsson I projected as (hopefully) an average backup at least.

So basically 91% would be a solid, reliable backup and 92%+ would be a solid starter... and that's why I was projecting/hoping for that specific set of stats for those two.

So far it's shaping up ok... although Talbot has a ways to go to get to 92%... but he's a hell of a lot closer than he was a couple months or so ago.

 

[MarkMessyay11]

Rangers fan checking in here. Happy to hear Cambot is doing well for you guys! He was stellar for us last year when we needed him to be, and I hope he'll be as good to you as he was to us.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

There's games where he gives me hope like the Canes game.

...Then there's games like the Kings game where I think he should be sent down the highway.

 

[THall4]

Young team on the rise.
Looking for a number one.
Has the money for it.
City will treat you like an A Lister.


I would.

Brand new arena too

not to mention..Connor McDavid

 

[Seedling]

There are only 30 spots for starters and 30ish for backups. He'll sign if we offer him a contract. I am more worried about fixing the D to be honest.

 

[MessierII]

I'd try to sign both him and Nilsson to 2 year deals. Give Brossoit a bit of time and see who emerges in that frame.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

NHL League Average for Save% is .916
http://www.nhl.com/stats/leaders?navid=nav-sts-league#
http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

Cambot and Anders are at .908 which is still below league average.

36/37th in the league.


There's a LOT of factors that go into s% such as having a terrible D group, but statistically they're not an amazing duo.

 

[Up the Irons]

NHL League Average for Save% is .916
http://www.nhl.com/stats/leaders?navid=nav-sts-league#
http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

Cambot and Anders are at .908 which is still below league average.

36/37th in the league.


There's a LOT of factors that go into s% such as having a terrible D group, but statistically they're not an amazing duo.

true, but Talbot has been coming around. his save % is decent since he has found his game.

I hope they sign him

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I hope they sign him too. but with only 30 starter positions the pickings are quite slim for him.

Which teams would sign a statistically below-average UFA starter this off season?

http://thehockeywriters.com/ranking-the-30-nhl-starting-goalies/


Winnipeg, Carolina, and Calgary are the other options for Talbot. Edmonton seems the most likely imho.

 

[Replacement*]

NHL League Average for Save% is .916
http://www.nhl.com/stats/leaders?navid=nav-sts-league#
http://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html

Cambot and Anders are at .908 which is still below league average.

36/37th in the league.


There's a LOT of factors that go into s% such as having a terrible D group, but statistically they're not an amazing duo.

How many goalies play on clubs as futile as the Oilers or get scored on by their own team 7 times only half way into a season? (Talbot) Any factoring of that divine comedy into the GAA?

GAA's are team metrics essentially. They are used too much to discern independent goalie play.

With all due respect to make a comment that .908 isn't good enough and needs to be .920 to hit average is an opinion that is circumspect of everything else a goalie faces here.

Goalies should be overpaid here for trauma alone.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

How many goalies play on clubs as futile as the Oilers or get scored on by their own team 7 times only half way into a season? (Talbot) Any factoring of that divine comedy into the GAA?

GAA's are team metrics essentially. They are used too much to discern independent goalie play.

With all due respect to make a comment that .908 isn't good enough and needs to be .920 to hit average is an opinion that is circumspect of everything else a goalie faces here.

Goalies should be overpaid here for trauma alone.

I can agree with this.

Cambot posted .926 in a pretty substantial sample size in NY.
.908 in Edmonton was roughly about what I expected he would post with our defense.


I'd like to see Talbot back.

 

[Up the Irons]

How many goalies play on clubs as futile as the Oilers or get scored on by their own team 7 times only half way into a season? (Talbot) Any factoring of that divine comedy into the GAA?

GAA's are team metrics essentially. They are used too much to discern independent goalie play.

With all due respect to make a comment that .908 isn't good enough and needs to be .920 to hit average is an opinion that is circumspect of everything else a goalie faces here.

Goalies should be overpaid here for trauma alone.

completely agree

 

[Oilhawks]

Re-sign Cambot (who aside from a few bad games and a couple of adjustments - easy ones - required to become a stellar starter) or continue the risky goalie roulette and piss away McDavid's ELC? Tough decision...do what it takes to sign him.

 

[shoop]

Re-sign Cambot (who aside from a few bad games and a couple of adjustments - easy ones - required to become a stellar starter) or continue the risky goalie roulette and piss away McDavid's ELC? Tough decision...do what it takes to sign him.

There won't be that much to signing him.

He doesn't have a ton of options out there. A bridge a decent dollars should get it done. If someone wants to go crazy for dollars or term so be it. 2 years $2.5M aav would be a good starting point for negotiations.

 

[McHaNugYakEbNurDra]

There won't be that much to signing him.

He doesn't have a ton of options out there. A bridge a decent dollars should get it done. If someone wants to go crazy for dollars or term so be it. 2 years $2.5M aav would be a good starting point for negotiations.

I've always thought of a "bridge" deal to be one for a RFA, to get him closer to the end of his RFA status, but before he becomes UFA. As Talbot would already be a UFA this summer if the Oilers don't resign him, I'm not sure I would say it's a bridge deal as much as just a regular contract.

I'm I misunderstanding the term "bridge contract" or is it meant for younger RFA players only?

I hope that Chiarelli is already in discussions with both Talbot and Nilsson agents and that they are both back next year....behind a better defence.

 

[shoop]

I've always thought of a "bridge" deal to be one for a RFA, to get him closer to the end of his RFA status, but before he becomes UFA. As Talbot would already be a UFA this summer if the Oilers don't resign him, I'm not sure I would say it's a bridge deal as much as just a regular contract.

I'm I misunderstanding the term "bridge contract" or is it meant for younger RFA players only?

I hope that Chiarelli is already in discussions with both Talbot and Nilsson agents and that they are both back next year....behind a better defence.

"bridge-like" contract?

He hasn't really earned a long-term deal. Three-year deal max. Preferably two years. Unless he plays lights out the rest of this season.

 

[JayTam]

Why is everybody listing McDavid as a reason to stay? I get that forwards who play with him would think that way, but for Talbot $$$ will be the factor, I think...

 

[BlowbyBlow]

How many goalies play on clubs as futile as the Oilers or get scored on by their own team 7 times only half way into a season? (Talbot) Any factoring of that divine comedy into the GAA?

GAA's are team metrics essentially. They are used too much to discern independent goalie play.

With all due respect to make a comment that .908 isn't good enough and needs to be .920 to hit average is an opinion that is circumspect of everything else a goalie faces here.

Goalies should be overpaid here for trauma alone.

Great post, to many people about stats - there should be metrics that account for poor defensive play, being scored on, and overall quality of shot.

Some goalies look great in the system they play in, others don't need as much as a system to be successful.

 

[OilTastic]

so despite a vastly different W/L record, is Nilsson losing the starting goalie battle to Talbot? is Talbot now the front runner to be signed? or do you guys think both will be re-signed? scary thing is that Talbot could actually walk as a UFA if he gets a good offer from someone else.

 

[shoop]

so despite a vastly different W/L record, is Nilsson losing the starting goalie battle to Talbot? is Talbot now the front runner to be signed? or do you guys think both will be re-signed? scary thing is that Talbot could actually walk as a UFA if he gets a good offer from someone else.

The starting goalie job is still up for grabs.

If either of them can put together a sustained streak like Nilsson did to start December then the starter status might change.

How good an offer is Talbot going to get from someone else?

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The starting goalie job is still up for grabs.

If either of them can put together a sustained streak like Nilsson did to start December then the starter status might change.

How good an offer is Talbot going to get from someone else?

Ask them.