If Montreal Wins the Stanley Cup - Biggest Fluke in NHL History?

[Gurglesons]

I don't buy that it is a fluke. The North Division team was pretty much assumed to have an easier road to the Conference Finals which many assumed would ultimately favor them in terms of injuries and freshness.

Montreal has taken advantage of their circumstances. That isn't a "fluke" that's coming together at the right time.

 

[Hunter368]

I wouldn’t call it a “fluke”, often a winner of a series or even the cup isn’t the most talented team or “best team (whatever that means)”. The winner of a series/cup often wins due to injury luck, suspension luck, bounces etc. Also the winner often is not the most talented, it’s the team who is playing their game to the best of their ability compared to the other team who might be more talented but isn’t playing their best game.

While the Habs aren’t the most talented team in the playoffs, but they have a goalie playing out of his mind currently and are playing as a team their game at a very high level…..compared to other teams who have not played to their best game for various reasons (injuries, suspension & just poor play).

The difference between a highly talented team vs one who isn’t the most talented isn’t huge in the NHL, certainly that gap can be over come by the lesser talented team playing to their peak level especially when other teams haven’t played to their peak level due to multi reasons.

 

[hockeyfan2k18]

Stanley Cup wins aren’t flukes.

 

[Crazy Cizikas]

Anytime someone says “in history” or “ever” they are probably wrong.

 

[AcerComputer]

They definitely have gotten fluky and timely goals. They have also managed to have a key player on the other team hurt or suspended (Tavares and Scheifele).

 

[TT1]

the funniest part of all of this is that the Stanley Cup is by far the hardest championship to win

Not only is NHL playoff hockey the hardest physical grind in all of pro sports, the amount of games you need to play also makes it a hard mental grind as well. It takes four BO7 rounds to win the cup, that cuts down on variance. Sure it takes luck to win the cup (injuries/hot goalies etc., same story every year).. but it also takes a ton of skill and effort/character.

Winning the Cup is a complete team effort.

 

[MadLuke]

The 1938 Hawks tend to be considered the worst winners in history:

1936-37	Chicago Blackhawks	NHL	American	48	14	27	7	0	0	35	0.365	99	131	291		Clem Loughlin	Out of Playoffs
1937-38	Chicago Blackhawks	NHL	American	48	14	25	9	0	0	37	0.385	97	139	238		Bill Stewart	Won Championship
1938-39	Chicago Blackhawks	NHL		48	12	28	8	0	0	32	0.333	91	132	367		Stewart, Thompson {+}	Out of Playoffs

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In the middle of 3 season of less than 15 win's in a row, 41% GF.

In the playoff they were +5 (26 GF to 21 GA)

The best of 3 round form and best of 5 in the finals made a fluke significantly more possible than 4 rounds of best of 7.

Montreal is +12 with a regular PDO, they are a bit fluky penalty killing wise and capitalising on the high danger sense that are not sustainable, but I imagine most recent winners had some aspect to them that was unsustainable during a phase of their winnings run and good puck luck.

They would be seen has a candidate for sure, but next season would determine it historically, if Anderson, Toffoli, Petry, Price etc... continue to play well and have a solid season they will be less seen has a fluke, if they (like they would probably have the last 4 season in a row making it a fifth time) miss the playoff, they could become the flukiest post WW2 winner I think, but not of the whole history, going through 4 round of best of 7 would exclude them that honor, you still need to be doing a lot of things well has a team to go through that long elimination process, more than the 38 Hawks had too.

Also if they would be winning it against Tampa, that would be one of the though run opposition wise, not a case of good team falling and opening the road for them at all (like it happened in 1993).

 

[Fitzy]

The most skilled roster doesn't always win the cup.

Doesn't make it a fluke any more than any other team winning. That's why we have playoffs. It's more fun that way

 

[Wats]

Feel like Vegas going to win but if they manage to take them out and then Tampa/Isles they must be doing something right

 

[Larry Hanson]

The call it the hardest trophy to win in professional sports for a reason. If they can win these last 2 series they certainly deserve the cup.

 

[WarriorofTime]

a win is a win, are you serious? Are you goin to be one of those * guys who wants one in the record book. * team won cup by fluke. When the Kings won as an 8th seed was that a fluke too?

I don't * anything

 

[MadLuke]

a win is a win, are you serious? Are you goin to be one of those * guys who wants one in the record book. * team won cup by fluke. When the Kings won as an 8th seed was that a fluke too?

No, them going to round 3 the year after and winning the cup the year after that leave no doubt that it was no fluke (2 solid season just before has well and having the lowest shooting percentage in the league the year they ended 8th), if Montreal do the same thing (with a very similar group) they will leave no doubt it was no fluke either.

 

[KCC]

Is a Cinderella team considered a fluke? Maybe. But that doesn’t take away from anything. Why should it? After all, when you look across all sports, Cinderella teams are what make any sport more talked about and interesting. And in general ppl love the underdogs.

 

[The90]

Price has been very good in the Toronto series, but he didn't have anything to do in the Winnipeg series, he was in fact the only reason game 4 went to overtime. He's been good so far against Vegas, but we're probably winning game 4 in regulation if he doesn't let a weak one squeak in, Vegas had no high-danger chances all game. Again our skaters are underrated.

I’m still confused how Winnipeg put up no fight at all. There were games they looked great in the regular season then the next game they were brutal.

 

[General Fanager]

Personally I believe they have already beaten 2 teams better on paper than them. They are currently tied 2-2 with a 3rd team that is better than them on paper. If they make the final they will likely be the underdogs on paper again.

The thing about teams on paper is that no one accounts for heart, will and performance. There are also other factors to take into account like coaching, system and game plan.

Call them underdogs sure.... but fluke no chance

 

[jfhabs]

I’m still confused how Winnipeg put up no fight at all. There were games they looked great in the regular season then the next game they were brutal.

I think their weak defense got exposed. Losing DeMelo really hurt them as he was one of a few capable dman on the team. Ehlers plays a game based on his speed/agility and he was banged up + it's playoffs hockey so he wasn't as effective. Wheeler was a total no-show, is he aging? Perhaps the Sheifele debacle distracted him or something.

 

[Luigi Habs]

I honestly do not understand how the Avs did not easily win the series against Vegas. Their roster is so much stronger and VGK did not really impress so far.

 

[abo9]

I keep thinking this. There’s a good chance of montreal not making the playoffs next year. I Actually said to a buddy of mine, before the playoffs began last year, that winning the play in round and signing a bunch of vets would eventually work against them. And doubled down on if they won a series this year would be even worse long term. I still believe that. But obviously if they manage to win a cup, who cares about tomorrow.

I’m a firm believer that a hot goaltender has more of an impact on success than a hot player at any other position. A hot goaltender can mask almost all issues.

That's why I cheer on them and "believe" (especially Pricer), but I don't build crazy expectations for the next year or two.

One thing though: We are fortunate that our Vets (Perry, staal, Gus, Merrill) acquired for the run did not cost us an arm and a leg. The one thing we can say is we lost on selling Tatar and Danault high, but at this point keeping Danault was more than worth it even if we let him go in the Summer.

 

[Maffew]

They still have a long way to go, but it's hard to think of a more "out there" Stanley Cup champion than if Montreal managed to win this year. 4th place team in a 7-team division that was considered by many to be the weakest in the NHL before and during the season. Weren't given a chance to do anything this postseason by most pundits. Not a team that was considered particularly good, dangerous or on the rise on the season. On paper, a team with a great goaltending (who is red hot) and not a whole lot else. They've had some fluky (not sustainable) things like their PK that would likely not hold over a very long sample size but in short series are more possible as well.

I know LA won the Stanley Cup in 2012 as an 8th seed, but at least they were viewed by many as a really strong roster heading into the season, and were largely getting screwed by terrible coaching during the season. They also further validated themselves that season by what they did in subsequent seasons, obviously we don't know what Montreal will do moving forward.

Building that narrative before it even has a chance to happen, eh bro? Something tells me no matter how they do it, Montreal will never be a legitimate threat to the cup to you. Quit looking at the jersey and give credit to a team that has won more playoff games than most other teams in the league this season.

 

[Evincar]

Stanley Cup wins aren’t flukes.

Maybe Carolina in 2006. Luck and matchups play a huge role in sports.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

I honestly do not understand how the Avs did not easily win the series against Vegas. Their roster is so much stronger and VGK did not really impress so far.

Or Habs are just playing really well.

 

[Eternal Leaf]

Even Habs fans didn't believe in their team before or during round 1. Many were begging the Leafs to beat them so they could fire Bergevin.

So yes, they are pulling off upset wins here.

However, I wouldn't use the word "fluke" for any team in the NHL playoffs. That is better used for single-game knockouts, not multiple full-blown 7 game series.

It's just a typical Cinderella run where everything goes right and the team carries that momentum deep into the playoffs.

 

[Paddy17]

Any team that has to win 16 games in a grueling playoff schedule can never be a fluke. One game win? You could argue that it was a fluke. 16 wins? Surely not.

 

[MadLuke]

Maybe Carolina in 2006. Luck and matchups play a huge role in sports.

Franchise wise that a good candidate to bring:

2002-03	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL	Southeast	82	22	43	11	6	0	61	0.372	171	240	1208	15682	Paul Maurice	Out of Playoffs
2003-04	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL	Southeast	82	28	34	14	6	0	76	0.463	172	209	1102	12330	Maurice, Laviolette {+}	Out of Playoffs

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

2005-06	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL	Southeast	82	52	22	0	6	2	112	0.683	294	260	1125	15596	Peter Laviolette	Won Championship
2006-07	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL	Southeast	82	40	34	0	3	5	88	0.537	241	253	1021	17386	Peter Laviolette	Out of Playoffs
2007-08	Carolina Hurricanes	NHL	Southeast	82	43	33	0	3	3	92	0.561	252	249	1183	16633	Peter Laviolette	Out of Playoffs

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

But that 05-06 team by itself was a really strong team, 112 points tie for third in the complete league, +24 goals, forward group that had incredible debt

Staal, Stillman, Cullen, Brind'Amour, Williams, Recchi, Weight, Whitney, Ladd is quite a group to build a top 9 around.

Their only strange element was no, number 1 D.

Then the next season Recchi, Weight, Cullen moved, if those playoff would have been a strange peak for Cam Ward and Eric Staal, it would be a real fluke, but those 2 went on to have really good career after and Mark Recchi still had a lot left in the tank.

 

[Louie the Blue]

I think we can all agree that if Montreal wins, they won't be as strong a team on paper or even on ice as compared to the recent dynasty/semi-dynasty teams like Boston, LA, Chicago and Pittsburgh. I wonder if that means Tampa Bay is not as good as the four teams mentioned above...and are more in the category of St. Louis and Carolina.

The Blues made the POs two seasons in a row after the SC and had the best record in the West prior to COVID, in addition to making the POs 7 times in 10 seasons.

They aren’t a one hit wonder like Carolina was(which had a great team, made the SCF a few years before and doesn’t even really compare to Montreal and St. Louis due to them being dominant all season while Montreal wasn’t and the Blues had a historic streak from January on).

Edited- I completely misread your post. Tampa is more in the vein of Boston as it stands now and can surpass them with another ring or 2.