If Montreal Wins the Stanley Cup - Biggest Fluke in NHL History?

[WarriorofTime]

They still have a long way to go, but it's hard to think of a more "out there" Stanley Cup champion than if Montreal managed to win this year. 4th place team in a 7-team division that was considered by many to be the weakest in the NHL before and during the season. Weren't given a chance to do anything this postseason by most pundits. Not a team that was considered particularly good, dangerous or on the rise on the season. On paper, a team with a great goaltending (who is red hot) and not a whole lot else. They've had some fluky (not sustainable) things like their PK that would likely not hold over a very long sample size but in short series are more possible as well.

I know LA won the Stanley Cup in 2012 as an 8th seed, but at least they were viewed by many as a really strong roster heading into the season, and were largely getting screwed by terrible coaching during the season. They also further validated themselves that season by what they did in subsequent seasons, obviously we don't know what Montreal will do moving forward.

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[SenzZen]

I don't know.

Roughly 2 weeks into the season, a very good friend of mine predicted they'd win it all this year.

He's a hab fan, but still.

 

[HanSolo]

Absolutely not. They're doing what they need to win. Just because they don't have the offensive stardom people expect from a champion doesn't mean they wouldn't deserve the victory if they won it all.

Vegas isn't an easy opponent. Maybe you can make the argument they're not as much of a contender as they seem but they're still a formidable challenge for any team. And then NYI and TBL, you beat them in the final you deserve to be a champion. Simple.

 

[Thrasymachus]

I dont think so. Probably not even the biggest fluke cup winner.

 

[Karma Police]

A team can't win the stanley cup and be called a fluke.

what makes the other teams then?

 

[WarriorofTime]

A team can't win the stanley cup and be called a fluke.

what makes the other teams then?

Chokers

 

[miscs75]

Not a fluke but knowing how the writers rank teams, they won’t be ranked anywhere near #1 if they win. They’ll rank teams who bowed out in earlier rounds (divisional rounds) ahead because of prestige.

 

[Tyrus]

I don't really understand why the Habs are being solely judged on their performances with an injury depleted roster rather than the growing sample size of what they're able to bring when their roster is fully healthy.

Habs are a solid team, despite the trash we're forced to carry on our cap right now. They'd have an ounce more offensive prowess, say Tatar and Drouin playing like they did last year rather than whatever got to them this year, and I'd call us equals to Vegas, period.

 

[SI90]

How is it a Fluke? You make the playoffs you got a shot. They made the playoffs and they’re playing great playoff hockey. They earned to be in the position they’re in. No fluke, that’s BS

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Biggest upset in history probably. But realistically they still have a long way to go and it only gets more difficult. We’ve seen other teams go on Cinderella runs to the SCF but lose in the finals in a close series.
But full credit to Montreal. They are out hitting Vegas and last night were the better team by a good margin. They are not doing it just on the back of great goaltending but are showing what a total team effort looks like.

 

[miscs75]

I don't really understand why the Habs are being solely judged on their performances with an injury depleted roster rather than the growing sample size of what they're able to bring when their roster is fully healthy.

Habs are a solid team, despite the trash we're forced to carry on our cap right now. They'd have an ounce more offensive prowess, say Tatar and Drouin playing like they did last year rather than whatever got to them this year, and I'd call us equals to Vegas, period.

They’d rather make excuses about why the “better” teams lost instead of look at why teams like the Habs/Isles are successful in the playoffs to date.

 

[WarriorofTime]

How is it a Fluke? You make the playoffs you got a shot. They made the playoffs and they’re playing great playoff hockey. They earned to be in the position they’re in. No fluke, that’s BS

You are confusing "fluke" with "undeserving"

Whoever wins is "deserving". A "fluke" is just what occurs when you take a high variance activity and a low probability event occurs.

 

[WatchfulElm]

People are quick to forget how many pundits thought they were the favorite or 2nd favorite team to win the North division before the season started.

The season started and the team faced a lot of adversity. And then everybody forgot they were a favorite before everything started to go wrong.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

absolutely

 

[Ole Gil]

They made the playoffs with an 86 point pace in the weakest division that also only had 7 teams.

So being in the playoffs was a definite fluke.

Then they got to avoid the #1 and #2 teams in the first and second rounds despite being the lowest seed.

Now to win it all, they will have to beat Vegas, and likely Tampa, so it's very much a real accomplishment. But the path up to the conference finals definitely is not on par, and is 100% flukey for the modern era, in that they were afforded opportunities and matchups in a way we'll likely never see again.

 

[Swervin81]

Probably the biggest one-off run since the 2006 Oilers. Pronger is leaps and bounds better than Petry, but Price is leaps and bounds better than Roloson. It's a wash.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I think it will be interesting to see what they do next year when we get back to the regular Divisions. My expectation is that they will be a playoff bubble team just like the last two seasons. But if they are a solid playoff team then I think it’s clear that the season was not really a fluke. They definitely made some solid moves this past year to improve the team but I think many will still be sceptical until they show some regular season improvement.

 

[bacon25]

People will say anything to discredit the North division. Blah blah weak division. Why can't folks just admit that maybe Montreal isn't as much as a pushover as everyone thought they would be.

 

[Krewe]

and I'd call us equals to Vegas, period.

Montreal is playing great right now, and peaking at the right time, but on paper Vegas is the better team by a margin

 

[AD1066]

I was more impressed with them last night, but the run still feels largely circumstantial and not indicative of a long-term trend. Without rehashing the absence of Tavares and Scheifele in earlier series, the team seems very reliant on goaltending, opportunistic play, and heavy minutes from its top 4 D.

We've seen a handful of teams in the past decade make these types of runs and in each case many fans insist that their particular team, this time, is the exception to the rule, and that getting outshot and out-possesed much of the time is just part of their play style. And it never holds up over larger samples.

 

[BLONG7]

Still a ways to go.....................there is NO flukes when you win 2-3-4 rounds in the Cup playoffs.....
Brutal............fluke? WTF?

 

[WarriorofTime]

I was more impressed with them last night, but the run still feels largely circumstantial and not indicative of a long-term trend. Without rehashing the absence of Tavares and Scheifele in earlier series, the team seems very reliant on goaltending, opportunistic play, and heavy minutes from its top 4 D.

We've seen a handful of teams in the past decade make these types of runs and in each case many fans insist that their particular team, this time, is the exception to the rule, and that getting outshot and out-possesed much of the time is just part of their play style. And it never holds up over larger samples.

Yeah, every fan thinks their team is just a "team of destiny" and refuses to consider variance until they get beat. Granted, the last 6 wins for Montreal will be the hardest, so if they get those 6 then maybe it will be re-considering based on how it occurs.

 

[HuGo Sham]

They still have a long way to go, but it's hard to think of a more "out there" Stanley Cup champion than if Montreal managed to win this year. 4th place team in a 7-team division that was considered by many to be the weakest in the NHL before and during the season. Weren't given a chance to do anything this postseason by most pundits. Not a team that was considered particularly good, dangerous or on the rise on the season. On paper, a team with a great goaltending (who is red hot) and not a whole lot else. They've had some fluky (not sustainable) things like their PK that would likely not hold over a very long sample size but in short series are more possible as well.

I know LA won the Stanley Cup in 2012 as an 8th seed, but at least they were viewed by many as a really strong roster heading into the season, and were largely getting screwed by terrible coaching during the season. They also further validated themselves that season by what they did in subsequent seasons, obviously we don't know what Montreal will do moving forward.

what's obvious to me, and many, many canadian fans is the absolute lack of knowledge of the North. I'm willing to bet many american fans on here have not watched games from the division or are aware of what's happened to habs this season. But hot takes? them we have!
Habs got smashed by covid and ended up playing 25 in 44 nights. That kills any team. They didn't have Price for half the year and lost many key pieces for extended periods including Armia, Chiarot, Danault, Gallagher, Weber etc...because of that crazy schedule.
They also flushed their entire coaching staff and with no practice time (because of the condensed covid schedule) they looked lost on the ice.
They only sort of got healthy in time for the playoffs. The fact they upset leafs (best team in the division) and jets only plays into the narrative for many of you that the entire division must be weak because well, a 4th place team won the 'weakest division'.
In terms of no talent, your narrative is also wrong. The issue with the habs was that their cornerstones were too old (Weber and Price) and their young players were not ready,
but caufield, suzuki and kotkaniemi have all grown up quickly while the older guys have stepped up.
Toffoli and Anderson have also been great additions. Perry is atop 20 D-man in the entire league and Edmundson has been great.
They're not as shit as you lead on. We all know in hockey the quality of a team is greater than the sum of its parts.

 

[SotasicA]

Wasn't there a thread right here on HFBoards before the season claiming the Canadiens are the #1 contender?

So, no. Not really. Not at all, actually. And I don't think anybody who defeats 4 playoff teams straight and earns those 16 wins, is a "fluke". That's blood, sweat and tears. Hard, hard effort. Far from an accident.

 

[letsgrowcactus]

I don't really understand why the Habs are being solely judged on their performances with an injury depleted roster rather than the growing sample size of what they're able to bring when their roster is fully healthy.

Habs are a solid team, despite the trash we're forced to carry on our cap right now. They'd have an ounce more offensive prowess, say Tatar and Drouin playing like they did last year rather than whatever got to them this year, and I'd call us equals to Vegas, period.

I mean, this goes both ways. Do we downgrade teams who played great all season and then lost key guys just before/during playoffs?
Not saying that Montreal isn't a good team (while Price has been excellent, a goalie alone can't carry you to the semifinals), but judging them solely based on the playoffs is just as false as judging them solely on the regular season.
There's always some element of luck to the playoffs, this year more than others with things so screwy. Props to the Habs for taking advantage and making a deep run.