Line Combos: If Marleau plays in the top nine, which forward from 16/17 Leafs is pushed down?

[Nithoniniel]

See now you're just putting words in my mouth. I couldn't care less if people liked me or disliked me on here. But you know what I do care about? getting the calls right. You can hate me, dislike me, despise me all you want, but the one thing that you CANNOT take away from me is that I get the extreme calls correct more than anyone on here. I'm not talking about getting the liljegren call right, or even the chychrun call right, i've been making these huge calls on here (against consensus 95% of the time) for years and years and years. The grabovski buyout call: ME, The babcock call: ME, The Marleau call: ME, The Dion call: ME, so how dare you define my actions by means of committee approval? i'm not a groupthink guy, i'm an ideas guy. I'm not saying all this stuff for some kind of credit or stardom, trust me, I have a high enough achieved status in life to not care about meager things like that. I brought it up because your insistence that I need to "fit in" or "fight less with people" or "get people to like me more" is a huge crock of ****. I say what I say because I believe it, not because i'm trying to fit in with some internet yes men, don't confuse it.

What on earth? What are you even talking about? And where dit the bolded come from?

So you not only don't read my posts, you make stuff up and then get this upset about it? Much of the above have no basis in reality. You're quoting things that I have never said! In the same very post that you complain about me putting words in your mouth. I didn't define your actions in any way. I never insisted that you need to fit in, fight less, get people to like you. I never even broached the subject.

That might be the most absurd thing I've ever read on these boards.

I don't understand how you just wrote the definition of the word fact, yet somehow don't understand that the production of statistics to support an argument is the very damn definition of "known or proven to be true". How do we know medicines work? we test them through statistical analysis. If you aren't willing to believe that facts are proven and supported through statistical inference, then this is simply ignorance on your part.

Let's try again.

Fact: Hyman was not effective as a shooter from high scoring areas last season.
Opinion with factual basis: This means he's an ineffective finisher.
Conjecture: This means he is an awful linemate for Matthews.

What you said would be somewhat true if you had said to me: "Hyman was really ineffective in high scoring areas last year." You could then support that with your stats here. But that's not what you are doing. You are making the claim that he was a black hole offensively, and that's not necessarily true just because you have a bad shooting percentage. Therefor you haven't proven anything. You have a theory, based on partial information. That's the definition of conjecture.

The facts are the facts, you say hyman's production is an outlier and should be higher, I say the simpler solution is that he just isn't an offensively skilled player. Its on you to prove that its an outlier, not on me, thats something you aren't understanding. You just seem to be completely oblivious to how standard deviations and any form of statistics work at all. If, as you say he had the worst rank in history in that category, that would put him so so so many standard deviations away from the mean that chance couldn't possibly explain it. That is a COLOSSAL deviation, not a mere sampling error.

This is a nice one. So because Hyman's shooting percentage is so absurdly unrealistic, it's bound to be true and not due to statistical variance? You're the one arguing a position that has Hyman as the worst shooter in NHL history, but I am the one who needs to prove that's not likely?

 

[Battle Lin]

marleau/jvr - matthews - marner/nylander
marleau/jvr - bozak - marner/nylander

we have a chance of a line with 30 goal power forward winger, with legit 1C, along with super skilled winger

a 2nd line with a 30 goal power forward winger, with legit 2C, along with super skilled winger


like these are super balanced scary offensive lines, any combo looks fine imo...to go with our defensive, physical, nitty gritty, with some offensive punch 3rd and 4th lines

im pretty sure we're not gonna not try these lines because of hyman lol, we're gonna start off with them at least for the beginning of year, with hyman on 4th line

 

[Mikeyg]

What on earth? What are you even talking about? And where dit the bolded come from?

So you not only don't read my posts, you make stuff up and then get this upset about it? Much of the above have no basis in reality. You're quoting things that I have never said! In the same very post that you complain about me putting words in your mouth. I didn't define your actions in any way. I never insisted that you need to fit in, fight less, get people to like you. I never even broached the subject.

That might be the most absurd thing I've ever read on these boards.


Let's try again.

Fact: Hyman was not effective as a shooter from high scoring areas last season.
Opinion with factual basis: This means he's an ineffective finisher.
Conjecture: This means he is an awful linemate for Matthews.

What you said would be somewhat true if you had said to me: "Hyman was really ineffective in high scoring areas last year." You could then support that with your stats here. But that's not what you are doing. You are making the claim that he was a black hole offensively, and that's not necessarily true just because you have a bad shooting percentage. Therefor you haven't proven anything. You have a theory, based on partial information. That's the definition of conjecture.



This is a nice one. So because Hyman's shooting percentage is so absurdly unrealistic, it's bound to be true and not due to statistical variance? You're the one arguing a position that has Hyman as the worst shooter in NHL history, but I am the one who needs to prove that's not likely?

This right here is what i'm talking about "do I usually have an issue with people disagreeing with me?" If you didn't mean what I thought you implied, then thats fine, I don't have any problem with it. I thought you were suggesting that I needed to post more inline with what would result in less people disagreeing with me, which I thought was absurd.

Now, lets go back to the actual arguments

"Fact: Hyman was not effective as a shooter from high scoring areas last season.
Opinion with factual basis: This means he's an ineffective finisher.
Conjecture: This means he is an awful linemate for Matthews."

See this is where I completely disagree. An opinion is analogous to a theory or at least a hypothesis about a theory. Theories get supplemented with supporting statistical information to become fact. You aren't playing this discussion from a position of strength. You are basically saying that there are not enough stats or the stats aren't definitive enough to say that there is causation here. I disagree with that because his performance was so far away from the mean that pure chance is unlikely. If you want to get technical and translate that to a "real study" that would imply that the probability or P value for this circumstance is extremely small. IDK if you follow studies or literature at all, but the very definition of a small p value would mean that you reject the likelihood of this relationship being due to chance (your argument) while simultaneously granting support for the underlying hypothesis (my argument).
So I truly do not understand how you can perceive this as being a conjecture.

 

[Mr Hockey]

This right here is what i'm talking about "do I usually have an issue with people disagreeing with me?" If you didn't mean what I thought you implied, then thats fine, I don't have any problem with it. I thought you were suggesting that I needed to post more inline with what would result in less people disagreeing with me, which I thought was absurd.

Now, lets go back to the actual arguments

"Fact: Hyman was not effective as a shooter from high scoring areas last season.
Opinion with factual basis: This means he's an ineffective finisher.
Conjecture: This means he is an awful linemate for Matthews."

See this is where I completely disagree. An opinion is analogous to a theory or at least a hypothesis about a theory. Theories get supplemented with supporting statistical information to become fact. You aren't playing this discussion from a position of strength. You are basically saying that there are not enough stats or the stats aren't definitive enough to say that there is causation here. I disagree with that because his performance was so far away from the mean that pure chance is unlikely. If you want to get technical and translate that to a "real study" that would imply that the probability or P value for this circumstance is extremely small. IDK if you follow studies or literature at all, but the very definition of a small p value would mean that you reject the likelihood of this relationship being due to chance (your argument) while simultaneously granting support for the underlying hypothesis (my argument).
So I truly do not understand how you can perceive this as being a conjecture.

You are trying to value a player off possible faulty numbers ... you should stop now.

 

[Nithoniniel]

This right here is what i'm talking about "do I usually have an issue with people disagreeing with me?" If you didn't mean what I thought you implied, then thats fine, I don't have any problem with it. I thought you were suggesting that I needed to post more inline with what would result in less people disagreeing with me, which I thought was absurd.

Now, lets go back to the actual arguments

"Fact: Hyman was not effective as a shooter from high scoring areas last season.
Opinion with factual basis: This means he's an ineffective finisher.
Conjecture: This means he is an awful linemate for Matthews."

See this is where I completely disagree. An opinion is analogous to a theory or at least a hypothesis about a theory. Theories get supplemented with supporting statistical information to become fact. You aren't playing this discussion from a position of strength. You are basically saying that there are not enough stats or the stats aren't definitive enough to say that there is causation here. I disagree with that because his performance was so far away from the mean that pure chance is unlikely. If you want to get technical and translate that to a "real study" that would imply that the probability or P value for this circumstance is extremely small. IDK if you follow studies or literature at all, but the very definition of a small p value would mean that you reject the likelihood of this relationship being due to chance (your argument) while simultaneously granting support for the underlying hypothesis (my argument).
So I truly do not understand how you can perceive this as being a conjecture.

Good to see you back on your feet, and this post is more like you! In return, I apologize for making fun of the whole thing.

What I called conjecture is using shooting percentage in high scoring areas, which is only part of the picture, to infer things about Hyman's offense as a whole. As for the outlier, it's right but I see one mistake you make there and it's about sample size.

It becomes a severe outlier because Hyman's stats comes from the small sample (53) of chances in a particular area from a single season, and we then compare them to the heavily regressed numbers from entire careers. In single seasons, high-danger sh% varies that much more after all.

So in a sense, we are both right on that particular topic.

 

[Mr Hockey]

...

 

[Marshy]

...

Was at this game. I was stupified.

 

[Leafidelity]

I think this is the year Komarov transitions to a 4th line/PK role. People love to whip Hymans production, but Leo and his 32 points were glued to a 32 goal scorer himself. I think he's going to play a specialist role on the PK.

Hyman was just signed longterm, they aren't going to tank his development right off the hop.

 

[biotk]

more interesting question who becomes the healthy scratch off the 4th line?
Leivo
Kappy
Martin
Hyman
Moore

Based on the scenario you propose - there is zero chance that Martin or Hyman are going to be healthy scratches. Moore is a C so he will not be sitting for Leivo or Kappy.
That would make Leivo the healthy scratch and Kappy in the AHL.

I personally think that a player or two will be traded after management sees where people are at during training camp.

 

[Mikeyg]

You are trying to value a player off possible faulty numbers ... you should stop now.

seriously dude? its from sportsnet, go look it up yourself. Heres a tip, if someone states a fact in an unaltered state (indicative from quotations being present) it really isn't that hard to verify the information by googling it.

go Google "Overall this season, Matthews has set Hyman up for 53 high danger chances that Hyman has put on net at five-on-five, the third-highest mark in the entire league after Connor McDavid and Matthews."

first link, can't miss it. But hey, lets just assume they were lying instead!

 

[Mikeyg]

Good to see you back on your feet, and this post is more like you! In return, I apologize for making fun of the whole thing.

What I called conjecture is using shooting percentage in high scoring areas, which is only part of the picture, to infer things about Hyman's offense as a whole. As for the outlier, it's right but I see one mistake you make there and it's about sample size.

It becomes a severe outlier because Hyman's stats comes from the small sample (53) of chances in a particular area from a single season, and we then compare them to the heavily regressed numbers from entire careers. In single seasons, high-danger sh% varies that much more after all.

So in a sense, we are both right on that particular topic.

Just found this:

I'd say it adds more perspective to it. I think theres more there, you kind of think its an outlier and think we need more games, so I guess we'll see. I just think the outlier theory is much less likely. That big dark blue bar is pretty scary.

 

[D3ADLY]

If i was Mike i would do this to start the season..

JVR -Matthews- Nylander
Marleau -Kadri- Marner
Komarov -Bozak- Brown
Martin -Moore- Hyman

JVR as 1st line winger for Matthews. JVR big body in front of the net will be a treat for Nylander and Auston. This just works on so many levels. Build up JVR value by deadline flip him for D or good futures.

Hyman better be sent to his place this season. Marleau was brought in at this contract to play a top 6 role. The only way i see Hyman playing with Matthews is if JVR is traded and Hyman somehow become #1W again

Bozak really needs to play as 3C. If any good team had him his role would be 3C. I think Toronto fans have seen him enough as top 6 and would rather see him as more of a top 9.

Kadri deserves better. He needs to play his tough style of game with goal scorers around him. Just add 12-15 points more to his last season total instantly as 2C with Marleau and Marner.

Brown should never go back to the 1st Line because Nylander can hold down that duty and has higher upside.

Martin Moore are a lock for 4th line work.

 

[Lightsol]

Just add 12-15 points more to his last season total instantly as 2C with Marleau and Marner.

AND of course, take a good 20 points off the totals of both due to Kadri's obsession with being "the driver" of his own line. After watching the two of them in preseason last year, keep Kadri as far away from Mitch Marner as possible, thanks. Kid's too good to have his center consider him a last minute afterthought.

 

[Faltorvo]

yeah for some reason they let you post pretty much whatever you want as a new user, but you have to wait to earn the responsibility to click on a little circle in a poll


as for the poll I went with trade a top9 forward I think JVR sees 0 minutes with the leafs this season,

yup, same, voted top 9 trade, buh bye either JVR or Boz or both

Hyman/Matthews/Marner

Marl/Nylander/Kapp

Koma/Kadri/brown

martin/moore/pick a kid

looks good to me

 

[Nithoniniel]

If i was Mike i would do this to start the season..

JVR -Matthews- Nylander
Marleau -Kadri- Marner
Komarov -Bozak- Brown
Martin -Moore- Hyman

JVR as 1st line winger for Matthews. JVR big body in front of the net will be a treat for Nylander and Auston. This just works on so many levels. Build up JVR value by deadline flip him for D or good futures.

I don't think JVR is a good fit for the role. Marleau works much better.

Bozak really needs to play as 3C. If any good team had him his role would be 3C. I think Toronto fans have seen him enough as top 6 and would rather see him as more of a top 9.

If any good team had him his role would be as a sheltered scoring line center. That's exactly what he's been for us.

Kadri deserves better. He needs to play his tough style of game with goal scorers around him. Just add 12-15 points more to his last season total instantly as 2C with Marleau and Marner.

You think Kadri is one of the best offensive players in the league now? Because he would be with 75 points.

Martin Moore are a lock for 4th line work.

Neither should be a lock.

 

[MagicalRazor]

My buddy just told me grundstrom is ineligible for the ahl this year where would he fit in the line up

 

[LeafalCrusader]

Hyman becomes an expensive 4th liner if he moves there though

Still cheaper than Martin and is great on the PK.

 

[Mr Hockey]

My buddy just told me grundstrom is ineligible for the ahl this year where would he fit in the line up

He can play in the AHL this season, whats your buddies reasoning?

 

[Menzinger]

He can play in the AHL this season, whats your buddies reasoning?

Can't confirm anything but some folks on twitter are saying Leafs are loaning him back to SHL team

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Can't confirm anything but some folks on twitter are saying Leafs are loaning him back to SHL team

Really? Any particular reason speculated?

 

[MagicalRazor]

He can play in the AHL this season, whats your buddies reasoning?

He said he read it , from a hockey insider . but the post below your gives you some insight going back to SHL . IDK why there must be a rule but yeah he cant play in the AHL this year

 

[Mr Hockey]

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Problems:
1) Kadri has to be our shut-down guy because our 3C Bozak can't play that role. Thus meaning Komarov is a must on that line.
2) If JVR plays on Matthews line that means Nylander can't play on that line since you need a grinder/forechecker there. It could work if we put Brown with JVR-Matthews and Nylander with Komarov-Kadri.

JVR - Matthews - Brown (Two-way/Offensive)
Komarov - Kadri - Nylander (Shut-down/Two-way)
Marleau - Bozak - Marner (Two-way/Offensive)
Martin - Moore - Hyman (Shut-down/defensive)
If I had my way I'd put Leivo in for Martin and Kappy in for JVR or Bozak (Switch Willy to C).

 

[Mr Hockey]

seriously dude? its from sportsnet, go look it up yourself. Heres a tip, if someone states a fact in an unaltered state (indicative from quotations being present) it really isn't that hard to verify the information by googling it.

go Google "Overall this season, Matthews has set Hyman up for 53 high danger chances that Hyman has put on net at five-on-five, the third-highest mark in the entire league after Connor McDavid and Matthews."

first link, can't miss it. But hey, lets just assume they were lying instead!

Post a link ...

Are you trying to tell me Matthews set Hyman up in the slot 53 times last season, I don't recall that happening once? lol I call BS on those stats lol

 

[PuckMagi]

I don't see why Martin has to play all 82 games.

I also don't think Hyman has the stamina to play his style for all 82 games either because he plays so hard every shift.

I think that Martin, Hyman, and Leivo can all be rotated between the two 4th line winger spots... that way, they each play about 55 games (or more if there are injuries). Leivo and Hyman can play both wings also, so that makes it simple.

Martin - Moore - Hyman
Leivo - Moore - Hyman
Martin - Moore - Leivo

Just rotate through those lines.