If Calgary misses the playoffs will it be the biggest debacle of the season?

[PunkRockLocke]

No 1st round pick. No second round pick. 1st round pick not lottery protected. I can't imagine a worse situation.

How about never having won a playoff game? That sounds like a bad situation.

 

[ImNeverWrong]

Calgary's not even the biggest debacle in Alberta.

No kidding. When pundits like Frank seravilli say the oilers are cup favourites and they end up being a bottom 5 team instead that's 10 times worse than a good team barely missing the playoffs.

 

[Oilers Propagandist]

It's amazing how you can have great years from your best player and starting goalie and still miss the playoffs.

That means you are crap coach.

They need a better centre.

 

[Bank Shot]

It's amazing how you can have great years from your best player and starting goalie and still miss the playoffs.

That means you are crap coach.

Well when your best player is a winger that only plays offence thats part of the problem.

 

[Oilers Propagandist]

I wonder what the conversation would be like if Gaudreau and Iginla had a beer together this evening.

"Boston is a remarkable city, but I wish Philly was a contender... would have went there instead".

-Jarome Iginla, the Edmonton native and Edmonton Oilers fan to Johnny Trademarks.

 

[LeafsNation75]

-It's always a bad choice to trade considerable assets for a player like Hamonic, or to acquire a Hamonic type player in general unless you're getting a great deal. Teams never win deals for players like Hamonic because Hamonic really is a decent #4 at best who becomes slightly more valuable when you consider that he is right handed and physical and can fight, but GMs put way too high a premium on guys like him because of the last 3 factors.

-It's always a bad choice to trade away an unprotected 1st round pick before you've seen your team play a single game, especially if your team is a fringe playoff team that had the fewest points of any playoff team last year and didn't win a single game. The trade was already way too much to give up, even if the pick was protected, or if it became 20-25 or even 31 because Hamonic is not worth all those picks including the two 2nd round picks that were added on.

-The debacle could end up looking bad if that pick turns into Dahlin. In theory, you should give them the same amount of blame for trading away any lottery pick when the lottery selection process is entirely random variance. If the GM can't properly evaluate his team as a non-playoff team, that's an error in judgment. But if they finish with what would be the 15th overall pick, and end up winning the lottery, leaving Rasmus Dahlin to the Islanders, that shouldn't change how you view things. At the end of the day, they will have given up a pick with a 1.5% chance to become Dahlin, 3.7% chance to become Svechnikov, etc - not directly given up those players. It is not the same situation as the Oilers giving up the 16th overall pick for Griffin Reinhart when Mathew Barzal was literally on the board at that point.

Even if the Flames just miss the playoffs last years draft lottery proved a team with the lowest odds can still move up. Remember how the Flyers went from the 13th pick to the 2nd pick with a 2.4% chance of that happening.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Even if the Flames just miss the playoffs last years draft lottery proved a team with the lowest odds can still move up. Remember how the Flyers went from the 13th pick to the 2nd pick with a 2.4% chance of that happening.

I mean, we all know numbers here. We literally know what a 2.4% chance is so we know that it is a possibility for that to happen. Last year's draft lottery didn't prove anything.

Of course it's human nature to see 3 teams not near the bottom-5 all win the lottery and think "wow, that really is possible, we had better be extra careful to make sure that's not us." But if we're looking at it from the POV of a super genius super GM, they know what they're trading away. The analysis required by a GM that isn't just simple math is the guessing of where your team will finish. Here's where the GM analysis comes in.

GM says "85% chance we make playoffs. 5% chance we finish 15th OV, 5% chance we finish 14th OV, 2.5% chance we finish 13th OV, 2.5% chance we finish 12th, no chance we finish elsewhere." Then simple math:

.05 x .01 = 0.05%
.05 x .018 = 0.09%
.025 x .022 = 0.055%
.025 x .027 = 0.0675%

=0.2625%. Or about a quarter of one percent. About a 1 in 400 chance at Rasmus Dahlin.

The chances are slightly better for the 2nd and 3rd overall picks. Assuming these numbers by Treviling were accurate (obviously not possible to actually accurately gauge these numbers), they would have about a 1% chance at a top-3 pick. I don't want to do all the math lol.

Now, I don't know that Calgary's GM even did this math or anything near. He probably did this in his head or something similar and came to a conclusion.

Now, say that when negotiating the trade, Snow asked Treviling for the pick to be unprotected. Treviling wanted protection but Snow said Treviling would have to toss in a B prospect that he liked. Treviling decided that the 1 in 400 chance at Dahlin wasn't worth the B prospect that Snow demanded. Some may have more conservative strategies than others - some may see even that 1 in 400 sliver of a shot at Rasmus Dahlin as too much to take a chance on.

Of course, it's very possible that Treviling's numbers were off. It's very possible that the likely scenario was the Flames being around 33% in a solid playoff spot, 33% being a fringe bubble team that barely makes the playoffs or barely misses it, 33% that they definitely don't make it and finish bottom-10. Probably more like a 1.5% shot at Rasmus Dahlin and 5% shot at a top-3 pick.

I don't know if GMs actually look at things like this way, but if they don't, and if they don't have employees giving them this type of statistical analysis by making moves like trading an unprotected 1st for Travis Hamonic, they're dumb as hell.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Now, say that when negotiating the trade, Snow asked Treviling for the pick to be unprotected. Treviling wanted protection but Snow said Treviling would have to toss in a B prospect that he liked. Treviling decided that the 1 in 400 chance at Dahlin wasn't worth the B prospect that Snow demanded. Some may have more conservative strategies than others - some may see even that 1 in 400 sliver of a shot at Rasmus Dahlin as too much to take a chance on.

Yet we saw Brian Burke say when making the Phil Kessel trade with Boston he thought Toronto might have given up something like the 10th - 15th overall pick of the 1st round in 2010 and instead we all know that turned out to be the 2nd overall pick.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Yet we saw Brian Burke say when making the Phil Kessel trade with Boston he thought Toronto might have given up something like the 10th - 15th overall pick of the 1st round in 2010 and instead we all know that turned out to be the 2nd overall pick.

Right, and Brian Burke is where exactly as a GM? Near the bottom of the league with the very worst. He got a little unlucky with Toskala having a downright terrible performance in 2009-2010 but he still put together a pretty poor roster for the 09-10 and I think a more intelligent and humble/self aware GM with a less biased opinion on his team could have seen that there was a strong possibility for a high pick in that 2010 draft.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Right, and Brian Burke is where exactly as a GM? Near the bottom of the league with the very worst. He got a little unlucky with Toskala having a downright terrible performance in 2009-2010 but he still put together a pretty poor roster for the 09-10 and I think a more intelligent and humble/self aware GM with a less biased opinion on his team could have seen that there was a strong possibility for a high pick in that 2010 draft.

It only looks worse because it was reported that Burke could have traded for Kessel at the 2009 draft, since he was willing to trade Tomas Kaberle. However he claimed that Boston was going to give him their 1st round pick and it was reported that Toronto was supposed to give Boston their 1st round pick. So because of that the trade never happened. Who knows if the Leafs still end up in the standings where they did and draft Seguin 2nd overall to play on the same team with Kessel, however one thing for sure is they don't end up with Nazem Kadri if Burke was never stubborn thinking he was getting his way.

 

[BackWithaVengeance]

Outside of Ottawa and Philadelphia?

Yes.

 

[JAS 39 Gripen]

No

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Well when your best player is a winger that only plays offence thats part of the problem.

This myth will never die lol. I guess some people are happy wading in ignorance.

 

[NewEraGM]

If the Flames had a winning record at home they would be sitting comfortable. The PP was a problem also.

really eh??? If Arizona just won all their home games they would probably make the playoffs comfortably....you can’t just say oh well if we had this or that then we would be fine...you don’t have a winning record at home cause the team is flawed and the stadium sucks and the players don’t want to play there

 

[JetsHomer]

How about never having won a playoff game? That sounds like a bad situation.

Lol. Not a single GM would choose to be in Calgary’s situation over Winnipeg’s.

Sorry about your garbage team and your garbage GM

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Calgary's not even the biggest debacle in Alberta.

disagree

no playoffs
no draft picks
no new arena

 

[RobBrown4PM]

You should have learned from us, Calgary. Never ever trade away your draft picks like we did.

 

[CraigsList]

disagree

no playoffs
no draft picks
no new arena

You have McDavid and still didnt make the playoffs lol

 

[Tobias Kahun]

You have McDavid and still didnt make the playoffs lol

And you guys have a top 3 defense and didnt make it, embarrassing

 

[Kranix]

It's Treliving's fault. He built the roster and hired Gulutzan, which seemed like a bad choice form the beginning.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

You have McDavid and still didnt make the playoffs lol

and you have Gaudreau and are going to miss the playoffs

 

[Dr Quincy]

Johnny had a great second season, then a bit of a down year in his third season. Now he's up again. That's pretty normal for players to have up and down seasons. This year, basically the entire top six had up years.

You expect every single one of them to have up years again?

Not to mention injuries which every key skater for the Flames avoided this season.


Backlund is playing at at 47 point pace which is pretty in line with his best seasons. How do you figure there is way more to give there? Frolik is about ten points down. Pretty much the only key guy on the Flames who had an off year.

Why would you expect Jankowski to improve on his rookie season? You might hope he improves, I don't see why you should expect it though. Its equally likely he has a sophomore slump or his production stays the same. See Bennett for details.

Perhaps Bennett has more to give, but he has three consecutive seasons of poor production. You can't count on progression there at this point.



It's the second best save percentage in Mike Smith's career. Out of 12 years. Definitely an outlier compared to the rest of his career. I'd bet on him sliding back to his career norm.

I agree with you. Drive me crazy when I see that kind of thinking every offseason:

1) Every young player will improve
2) Every established player will compete at the same level or improve too
3) Every injured player will be healthy
4) No vet will decline
5) No healthy player will get hurt

It's like every single player's prior season is the absolute floor of their abilities and the only place to go is up from there. Then again, since EVERY fanbase thinks the same for their team, then each team would only be improving at the same rate relative to the rest of the league.. which means Calgary wouldn't really be any better next year anyway.

But of course, careers are nonlinear and ANY player can regress, improve, stay the same, be healthy, be injured, pout, get arrested, and whatever else.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Naw the biggest debacle will be the fact that Chiarelli is still employed with the Oilers

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

and you have Gaudreau and are going to miss the playoffs

Can we all just agree Canadian hockey teams are pretty awful outside of Winnipeg

 

[Menzinger]

Nowhere near as bad as the Oilers screwups, but still, pretty terrible.

Bad enough of a move to fire a management group over....