I don't like how the draft is going...

[shanman]

Most of us realize there's going to be 4-5 more drafts where the Red Wings are probably picking top 5. There's plenty of time to get one. I don't know why you care so much about getting #3 or #4 defensemen, either. This team needs a elite #1 more than anything.

Think saying 4-5 more drafts is wildly too much to be happy with imo. Colorado was trash last year, and then made playoffs this year. With the parity of the nhl, takes a real level of incompetence to be that bad for 4 or 5 seasons, or 5 and 6 seasons if you add this as essentially at that level the past season.

 

[Run the Jewels]

My plan would be to go cheap with UFAs and give your young guys as much ice time as possible. Consider it a growing year and hope you can get into the top of the lottery in next summer's draft. So something like:

Mantha-Larkin-Abdelkader
Zetterberg-Neilsen-Zadina
Bert-Rasmussen-Nyquist
Helm-Glendening-Athanasiou
Svechnikov
Turgeon

DeKeyser-Daley
Ericsson-UFA (Franson, Schenn, or Polak)
Hicketts-Hronek
Kronwall - LTIR
Jensen

Howard
Ondrej Pavelec

That's still a pretty bad team but you aren't getting your young guys crushed night in and night out. Good mix of youth with Zadina, Rasmussen, Hicketts and Hronek getting a full season of playing time. If Cholo is lights out in GR then you can waive your UFA d-man and bring up Cholo and half your starters on defense are guys getting their first full season of consistent ice time. Jensen and Kronwall are there to fill in the gaps as needed, I doubt Kronwall could play a full season at this stage of his career anyway. You can LTIR as needed to help manage the roster spots so you can maintain a 23 man roster.

I'd work to aggressively trade Nyquist and Howard. Athanasiou should also be on the market. Pavelec is not a starter but he'd be able to hold down the fort in the event you could move Howard. If not he's fine playing 20ish games. This isn't a total disaster of a roster, but there's so little talent, particularly on defense, that you put yourself in position to get a high draft pick in 2019 and you give some of your younger players consistent ice time to help with their development. If you can trade Nyquist, Athanasiou and possible Howard that should only help maintain our position as one of the worst teams in the league. Then you hopefully hit the jackpot in the 2019 lottery and you move aggressively after free agent d-men next summer.

 

[Claypool]

Think saying 4-5 more drafts is wildly too much to be happy with imo. Colorado was trash last year, and then made playoffs this year. With the parity of the nhl, takes a real level of incompetence to be that bad for 4 or 5 seasons, or 5 and 6 seasons if you add this as essentially at that level the past season.

I'm confused. Now people DON'T want this team to suck? You want Holland to bring in veterans and compete for a playoff spot? Make up your mind!

Yes, Colorado had a great season last year due to their superstar FORWARD having an MVP season and career years from guys like Rantanen and Barrie. They still haven't made it past the first round since 2008, and according to many folks around here, making the playoffs only to get eliminated in the first round is a waste of season.

Some teams will move in and out of the bottom four playoff spots each year, but to build a long-term contender a la Tampa, Washington, Pittsburgh and Chicago you need to be bad for awhile.

 

[HisNoodliness]

For the sake of argument, let's say my take on Veleno is too harsh, some other takes are a tad too optimistic, and let's say he pans out to be a tweener 2/3C kinda player. More than just the Lars Eller that Button compares him to, and becomes something of the next Frans Nielsen (the early years, not post bad contract).

Now let's also temper my expectations a bit of the defensemen I would've drafted instead. So instead of Addison or Wilde becoming the next Brent Seabrook or Tyson Barrie, they become the next Sammy Vataanen.

Based on where this franchise is, and their track record of identifying forwards versus identifying defensemen...you think it's more important to add the next Frans Nielsen then the next Sammy Vataanen? If you really think that way, you're entitled to your opinion.

But I'm never ever going to agree with that. Not for this team.

I think Sami Vatanen is a very very optimistic projection of Addison and Wilde. That's the best case scenario. I'd say a Vatanen is more valuable than a Nielsen, but instead of focusing on comparables you should actually focus on what these players are and how they project.

Veleno has better production than Michael Rasmussen. He's extremely fast, has good hands, and excellent vision and passing. Good in all three zones. I like him more than Larkin at the same age. I think NHL teams overscouted him and he dropped without good reason. IMO he's the second best center in this draft and is closer to Kotkaniemi than Hayton is to Veleno. He's a better player than either today, but Kotkaniemi has more potential long-term. He's a very safe bet to be a 3C and 2C is a realistic projection for him.

Berggren is one of my favorite players in the draft. I love the skating and his motor. I love the way he plays the game, good hands, good shot, good vision and great speed. He had the best production in Swedish Juniors this year. I think a top 6 winger is a realistic projection for him. We added a ton of speed to our forward group with these two.

Addison and Wilde I see as boom/bust picks. I love guys that play like Addison but where his defensive game is now... He's unlikely to ever step on NHL ice. He has great offensive instincts, but he's the classic undersized D. Maybe he's a second line defenseman that produces on the PP, probably not.

Wilde is a safer bet to be a third pairing D, but frankly he's an idiot. If he learns to think the game well he could be a top pairing guy as his physical tools are great, but his hockey IQ will probably hold him back from ever being more of a 3rd pairing player. He's much dumber than Brendan Smith at the same age (but even more physically gifted). I wouldn't trade Saarijarvi for either.

We need a blue-chip top-pairing D to slot in above Hronek and Cholowski. Addison, Wilde, Tychonick etc. aren't those guys. They're more guys to slot in around Saarijarvi and Lindstrom. I like aspects of their game, but all of them are big projects. We have good D prospect depth, we don't need more. We got high-end offensive prospects at the expense of defensive depth. The forwards we took are in a higher tier of prospect than the D we passed on.

Here's my prospect depth chart (---- denote tiers) as things went:
Zadina
-----------
Hronek
Veleno
Cholowski
Rasmussen
Berggren (could be higher than Ras tbh)
-------------
Saarijarvi
McIsaac
Lindstrom

With Wilde and Addison instead:

Zadina
----------
Hronek
Cholowski
Rasmussen
-----------
Saarijarvi
Addison
Wilde
McIsaac
Lindstrom

 

[Red Stanley]

We have options until all of our current defensive prospects fail to develop into anything more than 3rd pairing NHLers. Having even a couple of them turn into solid 2nd pairing defensemen would improve our situation exponentially. And then we could still sign/trade for an established Dman to to fill out the roster. I'm just glad we've seemingly addressed something in this draft - a bonafide sniper, a playmaking center and a kid with crazy hands. With just our first 3 picks we essentially added a whole scoring line. Here's what I'm looking at for our top 6 (pretty interchangeable too) in the near future:

Mantha - Larkin - Zadina
Berg - Veleno - Ras

Those look like two monster scoring lines that are defensively responsible, too. Consider that we may pick up even better forwards next year, which would push some down into a potential third strong scoring line. That would be pretty sweet.

 

[NickH8]

What I don't like is that Detroit now has another handful of forwards that are - Zadina notwithstanding - middle six type guys

This is the annoying semantics I hate. Middle six, elite, generational, support player, core player, etc. Everyone has a different definition for all of these. Middle six to me means anyone on the second or third line, which includes very good second liners, like TJ Oshie. To you middle six may be more like Darren Helm, as in they are fringe second liners.

Now onto your post, you say you need three or four young forwards to get a good young defenseman, that's exactly my point! If we have a bunch of these guys we can always trade them. I think the disconnect here is you're of the popular mindset that you need a legit number one defenseman to build a contender, while I think there isn't one set way to build a team. Vegas didn't have any elite defensemen, they just had high end skill at forward and great depth. You can say they lost but Pittsburgh won without Letang, and also you could argue Letang isn't elite. If you have high end skill, it doesn't matter where, you can build a contender. Hoping McIsaac, Cholowski, Hronek, a young defenseman we trade for, Hicketts, Saarijarvi, etc. get us Nate Schmidt, Shea Theodore, and Braden McNabb is much more optimistic than chasing a Nick Lidstrom.

 

[NickH8]

I think Sami Vatanen is a very very optimistic projection of Addison and Wilde. That's the best case scenario. I'd say a Vatanen is more valuable than a Nielsen, but instead of focusing on comparables you should actually focus on what these players are and how they project.

Veleno has better production than Michael Rasmussen. He's extremely fast, has good hands, and excellent vision and passing. Good in all three zones. I like him more than Larkin at the same age. I think NHL teams overscouted him and he dropped without good reason. IMO he's the second best center in this draft and is closer to Kotkaniemi than Hayton is to Veleno. He's a better player than either today, but Kotkaniemi has more potential long-term. He's a very safe bet to be a 3C and 2C is a realistic projection for him.

Berggren is one of my favorite players in the draft. I love the skating and his motor. I love the way he plays the game, good hands, good shot, good vision and great speed. He had the best production in Swedish Juniors this year. I think a top 6 winger is a realistic projection for him. We added a ton of speed to our forward group with these two.

Addison and Wilde I see as boom/bust picks. I love guys that play like Addison but where his defensive game is now... He's unlikely to ever step on NHL ice. He has great offensive instincts, but he's the classic undersized D. Maybe he's a second line defenseman that produces on the PP, probably not.

Wilde is a safer bet to be a third pairing D, but frankly he's an idiot. If he learns to think the game well he could be a top pairing guy as his physical tools are great, but his hockey IQ will probably hold him back from ever being more of a 3rd pairing player. He's much dumber than Brendan Smith at the same age (but even more physically gifted). I wouldn't trade Saarijarvi for either.

We need a blue-chip top-pairing D to slot in above Hronek and Cholowski. Addison, Wilde, Tychonick etc. aren't those guys. They're more guys to slot in around Saarijarvi and Lindstrom. I like aspects of their game, but all of them are big projects. We have good D prospect depth, we don't need more. We got high-end offensive prospects at the expense of defensive depth. The forwards we took are in a higher tier of prospect than the D we passed on.
Finally, somebody who sees the high upside in Veleno. Once again, NBC analyst use words like "safe" and "lacks high end skill" and people assume he's a third liner. He looks a lot like Larkin to me, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being the better player.
Here's my prospect depth chart (---- denote tiers) as things went:
Zadina
-----------
Hronek
Veleno
Cholowski
Rasmussen
Berggren (could be higher than Ras tbh)
-------------
Saarijarvi
McIsaac
Lindstrom

With Wilde and Addison instead:

Zadina
----------
Hronek
Cholowski
Rasmussen
-----------
Saarijarvi
Addison
Wilde
McIsaac
Lindstrom

Finally someone who see's the upside in Veleno. Just like Larkin NBC used certain buzzwords like "safe" and "lacks high end skill" and people assume he's Darren Helm.

 

[Shaman464]

My plan would be to go cheap with UFAs and give your young guys as much ice time as possible. Consider it a growing year and hope you can get into the top of the lottery in next summer's draft. So something like:

Mantha-Larkin-Abdelkader
Zetterberg-Neilsen-Zadina
Bert-Rasmussen-Nyquist
Helm-Glendening-Athanasiou
Svechnikov
Turgeon

DeKeyser-Daley
Ericsson-UFA (Franson, Schenn, or Polak)
Hicketts-Hronek
Kronwall - LTIR
Jensen

Howard
Ondrej Pavelec

Ras is looking like a future winger. He really let loose when he got the ability to focus on what makes him best, going to the dirty areas and getting pucks and making things happen. He's not an answer for a top line center, so I'd rather see him as a top 6 wing can score from the dirty areas with a good center than a middle 6 center with more of the same on his wings.

 

[Shaman464]

Finally someone who see's the upside in Veleno. Just like Larkin NBC used certain buzzwords like "safe" and "lacks high end skill" and people assume he's Darren Helm.

Again, if he's such a good pick why did he drop so far? It's pretty obvious that 23 other teams saw something in him that made them not want him with their first. So people who think he's a lock for the 2nd line center really need to justify why none of the experts saw that.

 

[Syckle78]

Think saying 4-5 more drafts is wildly too much to be happy with imo. Colorado was trash last year, and then made playoffs this year. With the parity of the nhl, takes a real level of incompetence to be that bad for 4 or 5 seasons, or 5 and 6 seasons if you add this as essentially at that level the past season.

Colorado has been trash for most of the last decade. They didn't rebuild over night.

 

[kliq]

Again, if he's such a good pick why did he drop so far? It's pretty obvious that 23 other teams saw something in him that made them not want him with their first. So people who think he's a lock for the 2nd line center really need to justify why none of the experts saw that.

Well for one, certain team drafted based on need opposed to BPA. With that being said, I am by no means calling him "a lock".

 

[Syckle78]

Again, if he's such a good pick why did he drop so far? It's pretty obvious that 23 other teams saw something in him that made them not want him with their first. So people who think he's a lock for the 2nd line center really need to justify why none of the experts saw that.

If x was such a good pick why did x amount of teams pass on them? Can be asked about every single pick past the second round or into the late first. Who knows? Shit happens.

 

[NickH8]

Again, if he's such a good pick why did he drop so far? It's pretty obvious that 23 other teams saw something in him that made them not want him with their first. So people who think he's a lock for the 2nd line center really need to justify why none of the experts saw that.

No, other teams saw something in at least one other guy to let him fall. Say you're San Jose and you have Merkley at 12 and Veleno at 13. You pick Merkley, but Veleno would still be an awesome pick there. Sometimes weird shit happens like that. Also it's possible some teams scouts were wrong.

 

[Shaman464]

No, other teams saw something in at least one other guy to let him fall. Say you're San Jose and you have Merkley at 12 and Veleno at 13. You pick Merkley, but Veleno would still be an awesome pick there. Sometimes weird **** happens like that. Also it's possible some teams scouts were wrong.

Well for one, certain team drafted based on need opposed to BPA. With that being said, I am by no means calling him "a lock".

If x was such a good pick why did x amount of teams pass on them? Can be asked about every single pick past the second round or into the late first. Who knows? **** happens.

Well a striking issue that if you believe the advanced stats people his scoring pace translates to a guy who will peak at or under 40 points per season, which would make him a third line center. And while, scouts do get it wrong, its much much rarer when its a Canadian center, especially one that got exceptional status. I can promise that if is anything more than a very good 3rd line center or an ok 2nd line center when he peaks, many many scouts will locking for jobs in a few years. This isn't a center from an unscouted league or a defender or goalie which are much harder to project, NHL scouts tend to be very good at projecting Canadian centers. And as for drafting for need? 7 centers went before him and a total of 15 forwards. So again, my question is why did he get passed up so many times and why are people on here raving that he's a lock for 2nd line center of the future? Is there something HF board knows about him that professional scouts missed? Because again, if he were as good as people are making him out to be most teams would have drafted him just because of how valuable center is.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Again, if he's such a good pick why did he drop so far? It's pretty obvious that 23 other teams saw something in him that made them not want him with their first. So people who think he's a lock for the 2nd line center really need to justify why none of the experts saw that.

Haven't you ever heard Bob McKenzie's thing? "It only takes one".

Ken Holland and Co were a deadlock to take a D at 6... and then Zadina was there. Hell, look at the NFL draft. Aaron Rodgers in his draft year was in high discussions for #1OA and then he's there at 24 for Green Bay. There must be something completely wrong with him, right?

**** at the start of the year, Jesperi Kotkaniemi was a borderline first round pick. He went 3OA pretty much on the strength of two great tournaments. The issue with complaining about Veleno's drop is that it is predicated on his assumed ceiling being lower than the guys in front of him. Like Merkley, Miller, Dellendrea, etc. Teams have different needs and some players who "should" be taken at 15 don't make any sense for them as picks.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Well a striking issue that if you believe the advanced stats people his scoring pace translates to a guy who will peak at or under 40 points per season, which would make him a third line center. And while, scouts do get it wrong, its much much rarer when its a Canadian center, especially one that got exceptional status. I can promise that if is anything more than a very good 3rd line center or an ok 2nd line center when he peaks, many many scouts will locking for jobs in a few years. This isn't a center from an unscouted league or a defender or goalie which are much harder to project, NHL scouts tend to be very good at projecting Canadian centers. And as for drafting for need? 7 centers went before him and a total of 15 forwards. So again, my question is why did he get passed up so many times and why are people on here raving that he's a lock for 2nd line center of the future? Is there something HF board knows about him that professional scouts missed? Because again, if he were as good as people are making him out to be most teams would have drafted him just because of how valuable center is.

That is hyperbole just like you saying "oh, he fell something must be wrong with him." Most of the reasonable people on here that I tend to listen to are saying "*IF* he's a 2/3C tweener, that's fantastic value at 30"

Complaining about this would be like complaining about Leafs fans thinking that Jeremy Bracco is a star in the making.

 

[Run the Jewels]

Ras is looking like a future winger. He really let loose when he got the ability to focus on what makes him best, going to the dirty areas and getting pucks and making things happen. He's not an answer for a top line center, so I'd rather see him as a top 6 wing can score from the dirty areas with a good center than a middle 6 center with more of the same on his wings.

Yeah, that's fine. You can potentially move Turgeon into the lineup as your 4C.

 

[odin1981]

Oh, so mid season. You said he took a step back this season so I thought you meant the season as a whole.

My mistake for the miscommunication I should have phrased it clearly. It was mainly around the second half of the GRG thread.

 

[shanman]

Colorado has been trash for most of the last decade. They didn't rebuild over night.

just was the example from last season. Many different examples to show

 

[shanman]

I'm confused. Now people DON'T want this team to suck? You want Holland to bring in veterans and compete for a playoff spot? Make up your mind!

Yes, Colorado had a great season last year due to their superstar FORWARD having an MVP season and career years from guys like Rantanen and Barrie. They still haven't made it past the first round since 2008, and according to many folks around here, making the playoffs only to get eliminated in the first round is a waste of season.

Some teams will move in and out of the bottom four playoff spots each year, but to build a long-term contender a la Tampa, Washington, Pittsburgh and Chicago you need to be bad for awhile.

Meh most of those just lucked into generational players like crosby, malkin, and ovechkin. And if you want to only consider it a success if a team wins a cup, then only like 3 teams have been successful like last ten years with how often the penguins/blackhawks/kings have won the cup ha. Feel like people are making too big of a deal that i said colorado, just was making one point. Obviously many other examples i could have gone with on teams that miss playoffs for a couple seasons before coming back in for playoff runs.

My main point is that it is stupid to just say oh we have to suck for 6 plus years to get any good when that clearly isn't the case. Some teams suck for a year or two and get a generational talent, some miss playoffs for a year or two before working way back in. Ha the vegas knights just made some extreme luck and dang near won it all as an expansion team. I am a fervent believer that as long as it is done the right way, i have no problem making it in to the playoffs and seeing if can get a good run. By that i mean bring up our youngsters, and stop giving overrated veterans these long deals and playing them past their expiration date. Who is to say that we wont incorporate zadina and ras in this year, get hronok/hicketts in and take our lumps this year, but ride a good young core into the playoffs the following years and build that way? Mantha already is hitting close to 30 goals, and could see him easily becoming a 30 goal scorer as he matures. Larkin was coming together 2nd half of season and was hitting a new stride. Maybe our d prospects really mature and we add the right piece in a trade with nyquist and daley moving out. Just saying as long as we do it the right way, doesn't have to take 6 plus years to build a "contender"-for whatever that means.

 

[Pavels Dog]

For the sake of argument, let's say my take on Veleno is too harsh, some other takes are a tad too optimistic, and let's say he pans out to be a tweener 2/3C kinda player. More than just the Lars Eller that Button compares him to, and becomes something of the next Frans Nielsen (the early years, not post bad contract).

Now let's also temper my expectations a bit of the defensemen I would've drafted instead. So instead of Addison or Wilde becoming the next Brent Seabrook or Tyson Barrie, they become the next Sammy Vataanen.

Based on where this franchise is, and their track record of identifying forwards versus identifying defensemen...you think it's more important to add the next Frans Nielsen then the next Sammy Vataanen? If you really think that way, you're entitled to your opinion.

But I'm never ever going to agree with that. Not for this team.

If only lazy stylistic comparables were the only thing that mattered in drafting.

 

[FlyTimmo]

I thought you guys had a great draft.

Berggren is one hell of a player. I like him 1000x more than Veleno. He is the next Brayden Point, Kucherov, etc. kind of steal. I wanted him at 19 for the Flyers.

 

[jkutswings]

If only lazy stylistic comparables were the only thing that mattered in drafting.

It's just not worth it anymore.

We aren't going to agree...and that's fine. But if you're going to resort to name-calling and condescension, then I'll take a pass on anything further.

 

[Henkka]

Just saying as long as we do it the right way, doesn't have to take 6 plus years to build a "contender"-for whatever that means.

I could see those 6-year building processes in this way:

2012 - Athanasiou, DeKeyser signed
2013 - Mantha, Bertuzzi
2014 - Larkin, Hicketts signed
2015 - Svechnikov
2016 - Cholowski, Smith, Hronek, Larsson
2017 - Rasmussen, Lindström, Fulcher signed
2018 - Zadina, Veleno, Berggren, McIsaac

 

[Syckle78]

just was the example from last season. Many different examples to show

Please provide your many examples of a quick rebuild.