Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
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I don't like how the draft is going...
- Thread starter jkutswings
- Start date
Let's stop pretending drafting high-end defensmen is easy and that all general managers do it.
Focus on the positives instead of looking for reasons to be upset. We're talking about two peoole that probably will be top 5 prospects in the organization in short order. Zadina is probably #1 immediately, Veleno is probably in the discussion for top 5. A top 5 that also includes Hronek and Cholowski.
We are missing high end talent everywhere and we drafted high quality players. As long as we continue drafting high value players at our picks, that's all we can hope for.
We are missing high end talent everywhere and we drafted high quality players. As long as we continue drafting high value players at our picks, that's all we can hope for.
obey86
Registered User
- Jun 9, 2009
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I'll do a quick one of the top scoring defensemen in the league. I know that top scoring doesn't always = top defenseman but for these purposes its the easiest way to do it as we would all be disagreeing over who the top defenders are. Anyways. Here's where the top 40 scoring defensemen in the league were drafted last season:
27th overall
20th overall
5th round
3rd round
2nd overall
15th overall
2nd overall
2nd round
Undrafted
4th overall
3rd round
4th round
4th overall
2nd round
5th overall
17th overall
3rd round
7th overall
7th overall
8th round
9th overall
5th round
6th overall
2nd round
16th overall
5th round
7th overall
5th round
8th overall
9th overall
1st overall
Undrafted
8th overall
6th round
12th overall
Undrafted
2nd round
3rd round
4th round
14 of the top 40 (35%) scoring defensemen from last year were drafted top 10.
Run the Jewels
Make Detroit Great Again
obey86
Registered User
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Heaton
Moderator
I do find it interesting how the conversation has shifted from the Wings not being able to draft top defenseman because we've been too good, to it doesn't matter if we take a defenseman early since they can be taken in the 2nd round...
The biggest issue is this organizations inability to draft and develop them, which is why I've been a big proponent of trying to trade for one, but I've seen backlash on that as well... So if we can't draft/develop or won't draft/develop them and trading is a bad idea because the 'price is too high'... what then?
The biggest issue is this organizations inability to draft and develop them, which is why I've been a big proponent of trying to trade for one, but I've seen backlash on that as well... So if we can't draft/develop or won't draft/develop them and trading is a bad idea because the 'price is too high'... what then?
The defenseman you wanted so badly wasnt even considered a guaranteed lottery choice 6 months ago and wasn’t even a guaranteed first rounder to start the season. Same with Bouchard. There will be D available.
Lil Sebastian Cossa
Opinions are share are my own personal opinions.
- Jul 6, 2012
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There is one pick. So we get Addison, McIsaac, Tychonic or Samuelsson. And then we literally have another pick at 36
So we can get two of those guys you’re complaining about not taking in about a half hour when the draft starts back up. I suppose I understand the frustration of not feeling like they’re addressing the defense, but when they have two picks in the next 5 guys and have just taken a C and a W and literally your entire list of “man I wish they’d have taken them at 30” are available.. I lose my understanding.
i think part of the hope is some of our guys step up currently in the system, whether it be hronek, cholo, even guys like hickets/sulak perhaps. Throw in prob getting 2 more prospects in 2nd round for the defense and think just hope we can get some good production out of it. With all the recent love for carlson, both washington and las vegas made the stanley cup finals without that true prototypical stud number 1 (as i dont really think of carlson in that way)
Heaton
Moderator
Lil Sebastian Cossa
Opinions are share are my own personal opinions.
- Jul 6, 2012
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19 for president
Registered User
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I think Heaton hit it on the head. I dont think the Wings are poor drafting team defensively. I think they are terrrrible at D development. You will never convince me that we should not have been able to develop 1 top four dman out of XO, Sproul, Marchenko, Jensen. The pedigree prior to joining GR was just too high on that group.
I am very pro trading for a dman because the Wings will be lucky if they can develop one. 2 dman (kronner and fisch) in almost 30 years is a terrible track record.
I am very pro trading for a dman because the Wings will be lucky if they can develop one. 2 dman (kronner and fisch) in almost 30 years is a terrible track record.
That is what they say, what is popular to think, but there is nothing that indicates that if you look at actually team results. But people do never question anything, they go with what is popular to think no matter what the facts say.
Defense is maybe importent, but is a big difference between saying defense is importent and that d-men is importent. Defense is how a team as whole work on the ice defensivly including forwards, d-men is individual players.
Washington had a pretty good forward lineup i would say, their strong part was forwards, including wingers. So I do not get your point there at all. Their d-men lineup was actually worse compare to last year and then they did not won, so they are not a good example for your point. They won now thanks to more forwards than just Backstrom and Ovechkin produced in the playoff,before it was basically just 1 line that produced in the playoff. So they are more example for my point. You need good forwards to win, you do not need good d-men.
Look at Pittsburgh, they didnt become that good before they sorted out their wing situation. Last time they won 2017, they probably won with one of the worsed d-men lineup (letang was injured) in the entire league. You do need good d-men to win, but need good forwards to win. Look at Nashville, they have 4 1d in their lineup, and still they fail. If you would replace those 4 1d with equally good forwards, they easily would have had 2 straight sc now.
In the buttom of the league you find plenty of teams with pretty good d-men lineup, like arizona, carolina, buffalo, calgary etc.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
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- 14,754
Odds of drafting a 20+ min a night defenseman by draft position (using drafts 1998-2010):
1-2 = 100%
3-8= 61%
9-18 = 32%
19-29 = 18%
51-75 = 8%
76-98 = 2%
99-188 = 4%
189-210 = 2%
I like our draft so far. But you are trying to make something difficult sound way easier than it is. If we owned every pick from 11 to the end of the draft, you’d have a good point.
HisNoodliness
The Karate Kid and ASP Kai
Honestly I just disagree with the OP. I'm pumped about this draft. Zadina is the type of high-end talent that we really need. I'd have liked a D at 6, and finding a guy with potential to be our #1 should be a huge priority... But Zadina is good enough that taking him is the right call. But you already know that. It's 30 that's upsetting for you.
I'd implore you to give Veleno more of a chance than those scouting reports. He was my 12th rated prospect in the draft and an absolute steal at 30. He's been in juniors for a while and he's not an absolutely dynamic player, but he's very effective. I am confident he'll go top 15 in redrafts in a couple of years. He really solidifies our center group. We could still use a true star 1C, but Larkin-Veleno-Rasmussen could be a center core good enough to win a cup.
Veleno is a terrific skater and puck distributor. He sees the ice very well and finds teammates with deft, smart passes. His shot is his biggest flaw, but it's underrated IMO. He'll bury the opportunities he should, he just won't create something out of nothing with it. He can score off the rush, or establish the cycle. He backchecks hard and is guaranteed to be a solid 3C. I project him as a 2C. I'm confident he'll be better than Hayton who went 5 (admittedly I am particularly low on Hayton).
I hated the Larkin pick at 15 because I thought he had low upside. I think Veleno has higher upside than I thought Larkin did (I was obviously wrong about Larkin). I don't see Veleno as a low upside, safe pick. He's a steal that has a very high floor to go with a decent ceiling.
Regarding the defense, we took a ton of D last year, and have Hronek, Cholowski and Saarijarvi. We need top end talent on D, but our D pool depth is already good. There was no one at 30 worth taking over Veleno because of need. Wilde, Tychonick, and Addison would all be excellent D to add to our system, but none of them slot into our depth chart above Cholo or Hronek so they don't address our area of need back there. Taking anyone besides Veleno would have been dumb. He was BPA by a mile.
I'd implore you to give Veleno more of a chance than those scouting reports. He was my 12th rated prospect in the draft and an absolute steal at 30. He's been in juniors for a while and he's not an absolutely dynamic player, but he's very effective. I am confident he'll go top 15 in redrafts in a couple of years. He really solidifies our center group. We could still use a true star 1C, but Larkin-Veleno-Rasmussen could be a center core good enough to win a cup.
Veleno is a terrific skater and puck distributor. He sees the ice very well and finds teammates with deft, smart passes. His shot is his biggest flaw, but it's underrated IMO. He'll bury the opportunities he should, he just won't create something out of nothing with it. He can score off the rush, or establish the cycle. He backchecks hard and is guaranteed to be a solid 3C. I project him as a 2C. I'm confident he'll be better than Hayton who went 5 (admittedly I am particularly low on Hayton).
I hated the Larkin pick at 15 because I thought he had low upside. I think Veleno has higher upside than I thought Larkin did (I was obviously wrong about Larkin). I don't see Veleno as a low upside, safe pick. He's a steal that has a very high floor to go with a decent ceiling.
Regarding the defense, we took a ton of D last year, and have Hronek, Cholowski and Saarijarvi. We need top end talent on D, but our D pool depth is already good. There was no one at 30 worth taking over Veleno because of need. Wilde, Tychonick, and Addison would all be excellent D to add to our system, but none of them slot into our depth chart above Cholo or Hronek so they don't address our area of need back there. Taking anyone besides Veleno would have been dumb. He was BPA by a mile.
I am pretty open to exploring the market on trading Mantha, AA and Gus after getting Zadina. I think there will be an opportunity to move these players to get an exciting young defenseman to a team in need of an offensive infusion. This Zadina pick is exactly what the doctor ordered on the rebuild. He seems to have been their guy after Dahlin. Getting him at 6, a player they might have even selected above lil Svech is a real no-brainer. Yes the Wings need defense, good thing they will still suck it up next year and get a high draft pick again. Probably will for a couple more years as well. So there is still opportunity to draft that next franchise D. And if the Fates smile kindly on us and we win the Hughes lottery next year, our forward depth will become very, very elite for a long time. This team needs centers just as badly as it needs defense, because after Larkin, who exactly is in the pipeline? Veleno has some high end skill, and the game is moving more and more in the direction for the type of player he is. I think this is gonna be a long road back to playoff contention and after yesterday, I finally feel like the organization is making strides to get better.
snailderby
Registered User
- Jul 10, 2010
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I get where you're coming from, jkutswings.
Personally, I like the pick, but I guess there might be some difference of opinion here on whether Veleno actually has top 6 potential. One scouting report says he "has all the makings of a top-six center at the NHL level." Another says that he "may not project as a top line, franchise centre at the next level" but "he does have the potential to be an outstanding number two centre, who brings a 200-foot game and can play all situations as well as match-up against the other team’s best players."
Obviously this is a big if, but if he ends up as a middling 1C or an outstanding 2C, that wouldn't be bad at all.
Top 10 picks make up 4.6% of the total draft, but 35% of the top scoring dmen are found there
They went BPA over positional need and thats how it should be. Also I don't like Mcleod. His brother is already devoid of offensive talent as it is already.
obey86
Registered User
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I think they are bad at development AND they haven't draft enough defensemen in the top 3 rounds over the past 10 years or so. IIRC, they were like dead last in the NHL in the number of defenseman drafted in rounds 1-3 over the last 10 years or so. Not enough spins at the wheel.
I share this opinion almost exactly, actually. Also, I think the Wings took Veleno at 30 partially because they lacked confidence he would be there at 33 and he was their BPA by a wide margin. We still have an excellent chance at adding a few quality pieces to the D pipeline early on today.
obey86
Registered User
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No doubt, but you only get one swing at a top 10 pick per draft (typically), as opposed to getting multiple swings with later picks. So yeah, you have a better chance of drafting a top dman at #10 than you do at #30 (obviously), but i'd argue if you spent multiple 2nd and 3rd rounders on dmen you can obtain the same odds as using a single top 10 would yield.
If Veleno tops out as a 2C that's a win for pick #30. There's imo no way you pass on Zadina and Veleno was projected a top 20 pick. We have the second pick in the second round. We will land a good D prospect in one of Tychonick, Wilde, Addison etc...whoever the wings land will have a very low likelihood of being a top pairing guy btw.
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