Post-Game Talk: Hutch gets 1st win

[LeafChief]

Yeah, Hyman and Marner getting healthy, and getting great goaltending had NOTHING to do with it....

Keefe has just been doing such a horrible job. The fact that the team has even won a game with Keefe at the helm is shocking.

 

[namttebih]

Any time Hutchinson gets a win it's big, no matter who it's against

Also, every game is big from here on. We have to win against every lesser opponent at the very least. A mid season win against a bottom feeder wasn't always a gimme for this team in the past

 

[saffronleaf]

Happy for Hutch.

It's not like the team protected him and he won by making casual saves. Nope. Started off with a breakaway. Had to make several big saves to keep the team in it.

Deserved a shutout.

Yea that's the biggest thing. This wasn't a gift-wrapped win for Hutch. He kept us in it in the 1st and 2nd especially.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Babcock wouldve iced the coldest 4th line and do the same thing ad nauseum and the Wings wouldve gained momentum and tied the game.

Thats Babs hockey.
And when it blows up. Its Nylanders fault for not being a Gud Pro

LMAO

Isn't the 4th line same?

Anyway, if Detroit couldn't score with all the odd man rushes or breakaways they gave them then I'm not sure they would've got back in the game regardless of the coach.

 

[Merrrlin]

Yeah, Hyman and Marner getting healthy, and getting great goaltending had NOTHING to do with it....

They certainly did, but you would have to be incredibly bias or a bad evaluator to say the system changes haven't also been a huge part of it.

 

[Duffman955]

Game notes

-Hutchinson was excellent. Made quite a few big saves early.

-Hyman f***ing classic Hyman goal for the 1st and then does his best Sundin impression for the 2nd goal.

-Muzzin and Holl putting this team on there back. From defending to puck support to sticking up for team mates. Very impressed

-Great all-round possession game.

-this team badly needs a guy to drop the mits. We have a bunch of nobody's taking runs at us every game. Dermott then Kerfoot, who's next?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Yes but you can’t say anything nice about progress for players like Kadri, Hyman, Marner.

That JT signed here. That Andersen also chastised his mates for lack of effort

Babcock was all bad. All the time.

What I find weird is that possession posters seem to hate Babcock’s dump and chase yet his Corsi numbers are better than Keefe’s.

Perhaps there is some skewed remembering going on.

Babcock: 52.3 cf% (7th) | 47.9 xGF% (23rd)
Keefe: 54.8 cf% (4th) | 56 xGF (3rd)

yeah, something is definitely skewed here

 

[al secord]

Game could have been over early if not fot Hutchinson. That bodes well for him but not for the team. We seriously need to cut down on the turn overs and subsequent breakaways. This is a recording.

 

[Blanche Blanche]

Isn't the 4th line same?

Anyway, if Detroit couldn't score with all the odd man rushes or breakaways they gave them then I'm not sure they would've got back in the game regardless of the coach.

True.

My point was Babs had a way of making things harder on his own accord rather than by his opponents doing.

The adjustments and line combos shift in and shift out are the antithesis of Babs. Somthing we all have been calling for since Feb last year.

 

[Rare Jewel]

True.

My point was Babs had a way of making things harder on his own accord rather than by his opponents doing.

The adjustments and line combos shift in and shift out are the antithesis of Babs. Somthing we all have been calling for since Feb last year.

Sure, but that mostly so that you look like your doing something. The actual effectiveness of the moves is another debate IMO. The only things people really wanted to see were things like Matthews and Marner. Or Matthews, Tavares and Marner which Babcock did after every PK btw.

I think Keefe tends to overindulged in this. I mean it's ended up with Hyman back with Matthews now and that was one of things Babcock was taken to task with most.

 

[Pookie]

Take a look at how they've done in terms of HDCF%, xGF%, SCA/60, PP% and PK%. Those are the numbers people are interested in, and Keefe is blowing Babcock out of the water.

No doubt the PP and PK have been a lot more effective. McFarland has definitely been allowed to be more accountable for the set up and personnel.

As for the rest of those stats, if this is being blown out of the water.... it must be shallow water.

Some improvement in some categories. Some declines in others. And the benefactor of a better shooting percentage, save percentage and "puck luck." 5 v 5:

Coach	GP	CF%	xGF%	SCA/60	SCF%	HDCF%	SH%	SV%	PDO
Mike Babcock	23	53.45	48.76	25.02	52.19	48.32	7.86	90.86	0.987
Sheldon Keefe	14	51.43	53.05	27.95	52.82	49.81	9.3	93.03	1.023

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Pookie]

Babcock: 52.3 cf% (7th) | 47.9 xGF% (23rd)
Keefe: 54.8 cf% (4th) | 56 xGF (3rd)

yeah, something is definitely skewed here

Ahh... you want to use "score adjusted" BS in your stats. The stuff that counts shots when trailing as less important.

Best of luck with that understanding of the game.

 

[kb]

10-4 baby!

All aboard the Keefe train!

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Safe to assume nothing is coming of all the stuff from last night at this point it seems.

 

[Merrrlin]

No doubt the PP and PK have been a lot more effective. McFarland has definitely been allowed to be more accountable for the set up and personnel.

As for the rest of those stats, if this is being blown out of the water.... it must be shallow water.

Some improvement in some categories. Some declines in others. And the benefactor of a better shooting percentage, save percentage and "puck luck." 5 v 5:

Coach	GP	CF%	xGF%	SCA/60	SCF%	HDCF%	SH%	SV%	PDO
Mike Babcock	23	53.45	48.76	25.02	52.19	48.32	7.86	90.86	0.987
Sheldon Keefe	14	51.43	53.05	27.95	52.82	49.81	9.3	93.03	1.023

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Some of those differences are huge, and definitely account for big point swings over a full season.

Save% goes up with better defending, also. oiSH% also affected by crafting better lineups and by playing with the puck more, a big system change that occurred.

 

[1specter]

No doubt the PP and PK have been a lot more effective. McFarland has definitely been allowed to be more accountable for the set up and personnel.

As for the rest of those stats, if this is being blown out of the water.... it must be shallow water.

Some improvement in some categories. Some declines in others. And the benefactor of a better shooting percentage, save percentage and "puck luck." 5 v 5:

Coach	GP	CF%	xGF%	SCA/60	SCF%	HDCF%	SH%	SV%	PDO
Mike Babcock	23	53.45	48.76	25.02	52.19	48.32	7.86	90.86	0.987
Sheldon Keefe	14	51.43	53.05	27.95	52.82	49.81	9.3	93.03	1.023

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

You didn't score adjust the stats, which makes them look considerably worse. Want to know why that matters? Because the Leafs have led most of their games under Keefe for the majority of the game, while under Babcock they were almost always trailing this season.

 

[1specter]

Ahh... you want to use "score adjusted" BS in your stats. The stuff that counts shots when trailing as less important.

Someone doesn't understand statistics

 

[Dragao6]

Detroit fans are as good as their team are this year lol.
Checked their board and one was praising AA for standing up for the team (by running our playing and kneeing with intent to injure).
Other happy team sucks but showing they are hard to play against ( spears, cheap shots and kneeing to injury)
They are all expecting muzzin to get suspended for his tackle blindly ignoring their player sucker punched him and wanted to continue if muzzin didn't end the situation (only unfortunate thing of this play was player landing on what looked like his head).

Sad reading this, they deserve babcock back as their coach

 

[Pookie]

Some of those differences are huge, and definitely account for big point swings over a full season.

Save% goes up with better defending, also. oiSH% also affected by crafting better lineups and by playing with the puck more, a big system change that occurred.

It's also due to the player's executing and their talent. If you threw Colton Orr out there in a system, it wouldn't have any difference.

I looked at High Danger Chances and the rest.... the most impressive part of our win streak is indeed on the PP and PK. I don't know if it's Keefe that is running that or if it is McFarland's ideas that Keefe is listening to but either way... whomever is responsible is doing a good job.

Folks have kicked around the idea that the difference has been limiting high danger scoring chances. This does not hold true for 5v5 play where the differences between chances for and against are within whispering distance of each other.

Coach	GP	HDCF/60	HDCA/60	MDCF/60	MDCA/60	LDCF/60	LDCA/60
Babcock	23	10.2	10.9	17.12	14.12	31.62	25.84
Keefe	14	11.21	11.3	20.08	16.65	24.85	24.77

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

(HDCF/60 = rate of high danger chances for... HDCA/60 = rate of high danger chances against...etc)

Where it does seem to matter is on the PP with a few more higher danger shots for and a much higher shooting percentage (which correlates)

Coach	GP	CF%	HDCF/60	HDCA/60	MDCF/60	MDCA/60	LDCF/60	LDCA/60	SH%
Sheldon Keefe	14	91.03	23.46	1.38	37.26	2.76	35.88	2.76	17.78
Mike Babcock	23	84.84	21.61	4.32	35.05	3.84	41.77	6.24	12.26

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

And on the PK, with Keefe's team allowing fewer High Danger Chances/60 aided also by taking fewer penalties per 60... which also helps lower the overall shots per game metric.

Coach	GP	HDSF/60	HDSA/60	MDCF/60	MDCA/60	LDCF/60	LDCA/60	SV%
Mike Babcock	23	2.77	12.92	3.69	34.16	2.31	47.08	0.850
Sheldon Keefe	14	8.15	8.15	3.06	22.41	0	35.65	0.857

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

(A caution in that Corsi is very weakly correlated to winning... for those that enjoy this stuff... this is for you)

 

[Pookie]

You didn't score adjust the stats, which makes them look considerably worse. Want to know why that matters? Because the Leafs have led most of their games under Keefe for the majority of the game, while under Babcock they were almost always trailing this season.

Right... adjust with score effects until it looks like Corsi means something.

I'm not a Corsi fan. I just posted the numbers for those that are.

 

[Pookie]

Someone doesn't understand statistics

We can go r2's anytime you like son.

Score effects are a fudge factor invented to prop up blogger hits and a failing theory on this possession proxy.

 

[Duffman955]

Detroit fans are as good as their team are this year lol.
Checked their board and one was praising AA for standing up for the team (by running our playing and kneeing with intent to injure).
Other happy team sucks but showing they are hard to play against ( spears, cheap shots and kneeing to injury)
They are all expecting muzzin to get suspended for his tackle blindly ignoring their player sucker punched him and wanted to continue if muzzin didn't end the situation (only unfortunate thing of this play was player landing on what looked like his head).

Sad reading this, they deserve babcock back as their coach

They're detroit fans.

Living in a shit hole, with a shit hole team makes you feel like shit

 

[unitedstars87]

They're detroit fans.

Living in a **** hole, with a **** hole team makes you feel like ****

Armpit of the US

 

[1specter]

We can go r2's anytime you like son.

Score effects are a fudge factor invented to prop up blogger hits and a failing theory on this possession proxy.

No, score effects are legitimate and there is years worth of data backing it up. It wasn't made up on the fly.

The fact that you claim to be a big hockey fan yet pretend like score effects aren't a thing is embarrassing. You're seriously telling me that a team plays the exact same when they've been leading/trailing for the entire game and won't change their pressure to become either more aggressive or defensive? That's a very basic concept....

 

[ruaware41]

Not worth the over analysis. Athanasiou led with his knee in an attempted hit on the smallest guy on the ice.

So basically you've concluded based on what makes your team as much of a victim as possible, like any other fanbase. Any other thought on the matter is over analysis. Man there is nothing rational about fandom.

Edit: I just want to reiterate that I am a Leafs fan. I just try to view things as objectively as I can and try to stay cognizant of my natural biases as much as I can