Post-Game Talk: Hutch gets 1st win

[Lil Tuzzi Bert]

What’re Matty’s stats against the wings he just dominates them every time

 

[Alkalinesky]

The Wings being **** is so satisfying. If they never win again, it'll be too soon.

As a lifelong Avs fan, my hatred of the Red Wings is genetic at this point. I love watching them lose almost as much as Boston. Maybe equal amounts.

 

[Stephen]

So basically you've concluded based on what makes your team as much of a victim as possible, like any other fanbase. Any other thought on the matter is over analysis. Man there is nothing rational about fandom.

Edit: I just want to reiterate that I am a Leafs fan. I just try to view things as objectively as I can and try to stay cognizant of my natural biases as much as I can

No, I’m saying it’s pretty clear to me what happened and trying to understand Athanasiou’s motivations, intent, biomechanics or whatever to simply appear to be “rational” on a message board is completely unnecessary.

 

[ruaware41]

No, I’m saying it’s pretty clear to me what happened and trying to understand Athanasiou’s motivations, intent, biomechanics or whatever to simply appear to be “rational” on a message board is completely unnecessary.

How is it clear if you didn't even bother watching a slow motion replay or review your opinion and instantly dismiss any discussion that doesn't line up with your original view point only relying on your initial assessment? Relying on your initial thoughts on the hit when emotional attachment and reaction was strong hardly paints an accurate picture and yes even to me it initially appeared like a knee on knee attempt.

It's not about trying to come across as rational but simply considering different view points and why they feel that way. Dismissing an idea that doesn't line up with your view point as over analysis doesn't seem to suggest one is interested in what actually happened.

Also if you consider AAs history he has no record for these kind of hits.

If you want a true answer of what happened and not just what you want to believe then taking a minute to watch the replay in slow mo makes it very very obvious that he had no intent to knee Kerfoot. If someone comes at a player head on and the player shifts just enough to one side last minute guess what's a likely possibility to happen? It's not complex biomechanics, it's common sense.

 

[Stephen]

How is it clear if you didn't even bother watching a slow motion replay or review your opinion and instantly dismiss any discussion that doesn't line up with your original view point only relying on your initial assessment? Relying on your initial thoughts on the hit when emotional attachment and reaction was strong hardly paints an accurate picture and yes even to me it initially appeared like a knee on knee attempt.

It's not about trying to come across as rational but simply considering different view points and why they feel that way. Dismissing supporting evidence that doesn't line up with your view point as over analysis doesn't seem to suggest one is interested in what actually happened.

Also if you consider AAs history he has no record for these kind of hits.

If you want a true answer of what happened and not just what you want to believe then taking a minute to watch the replay in slow mo makes it very very obvious that he had no intent to knee Kerfoot. If someone comes at a player head on and the player shifts just enough to one side last minute guess what's a likely possibility to happen?

I watched it. I watched it in slow motion. I came to my conclusion and I don't need to go to look into his disciplinary history, interview his mother and write a dissertation just to 'understand' and appear to be fair and impartial to Red Wings fans on a message board. Waste. Of. Time.

 

[Pookie]

No, score effects are legitimate and there is years worth of data backing it up. It wasn't made up on the fly.

The fact that you claim to be a big hockey fan yet pretend like score effects aren't a thing is embarrassing. You're seriously telling me that a team plays the exact same when they've been leading/trailing for the entire game and won't change their pressure to become either more aggressive or defensive? That's a very basic concept....

A shot from Matthews in the slot when trailing 2-0 in the 2nd Period is weighed less with score effects.

This should offend you intellectually.

Of course teams play different. So measure that. Don’t fudge for it. If the data doesn’t fit the possession theory, toss it out and come up with another theory.

Essentially what possession theory says is that teams that hold the puck more, (as measured by shots) tend to win... unless they are already winning, in which case the teams that hold the puck more (as measured by shots) tend to lose.

But when we discount the losing team’s possession data, the team with the lower possession actually has more possession. Therefore, possession matters.

This makes sense?

(Btw, try to make your point without that personal shot nonsense. It’s not embarrassing to offer a counter opinion in a discussion.)

 

[ruaware41]

I watched it. I watched it in slow motion. I came to my conclusion and I don't need to go to look into his disciplinary history, interview his mother and write a dissertation just to 'understand' and appear to be fair and impartial to Red Wings fans on a message board. Waste. Of. Time.

A still picture doesn't do it justice. It's hardly conclusive what his intent was because at the initial point and the direction he was going it was pretty clear (if you did indeed slow it down to 0.5x speed on YouTube) he was going for the entirety of who we call Alexander Kerfoot. If Kerfoot moves strongly to his left at the last second, if it leaves anything exposed it will be his knee. That's not a dissertation, just common sense. On the other hand the still picture suggests he specifically stuck out his knee. Not conclusive enough to warrant a suspension or to label him Cooke.

 

[hockeyes]

What’re Matty’s stats against the wings he just dominates them every time

You are right, he has done very well vs them. 12 goals and 19 points in 14 games

Looks like his best is vs Chicago with 14 points in 7 games and worse is vs Calgary with only 1 assist in 6 games, only team he hasn't scored on.

Auston Matthews Career Splits | Hockey-Reference.com

 

[Lil Tuzzi Bert]

You are right, he has done very well vs them. 12 goals and 19 points in 14 games

Looks like his best is vs Chicago with 14 points in 7 games and worse is vs Calgary with only 1 assist in 6 games, only team he hasn't scored on.

Auston Matthews Career Splits | Hockey-Reference.com

Thank you!

 

[Goose]

So I’ve been travelling for work and haven’t seen much of the games or team play.

Have we unplugged the toaster in the bathroom and started planning the parade now? Feels a little like that’s what’s happening

 

[Kingstondude84]

My thoughts on the game

1- Hutch was solid and calm in net. Didn't make highlight reel saves, but good positonal ones. Needed to have a "statement game" to save his NHL career, good on him. Keep feeding him soft games until he can re-earn the trust of Keefe.

2. Keefe made a lot of good in-game adjustments when he saw stuff that wasn't working. This is the kind of coach this team needs to get going.

3. Thought the Muzzin slew-foot was dirty, love the guy but can't be doing that stupid crap out there either. Also thought AA was a moron too by trying to take out Kerfoot.

All in all solid game, onto the next.

 

[TDotMassive]

Yeah, Hyman and Marner getting healthy, and getting great goaltending had NOTHING to do with it....

The players being happy and playing in a drastically different style suited to their strengths also had NOTHING to do with it...

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Couldn't watch much of the game last night so I watched the recap and man, Hutch kept us in it. He got lucky on breakaway number one but after that, he was excellent. I've crapped on Hutch all year but he was great last night. That's not a good thing btw. The defense needs to be better against arguably the worst team in the league. Far too many chances against bad teams like NYR and Detroit.

 

[1specter]

A shot from Matthews in the slot when trailing 2-0 in the 2nd Period is weighed less with score effects.

This should offend you intellectually.

Of course teams play different. So measure that. Don’t fudge for it. If the data doesn’t fit the possession theory, toss it out and come up with another theory.

Essentially what possession theory says is that teams that hold the puck more, (as measured by shots) tend to win... unless they are already winning, in which case the teams that hold the puck more (as measured by shots) tend to lose.

But when we discount the losing team’s possession data, the team with the lower possession actually has more possession. Therefore, possession matters.

This makes sense?

(Btw, try to make your point without that personal shot nonsense. It’s not embarrassing to offer a counter opinion in a discussion.)

The data isn't 'discounted', it's essentially bell curved. You're over complicating something that isn't controversial.... Most teams go into a defensive shell when they lead, which inflates the shot attempts of the team trailing; again they've collected over a decade of data on this and determined the inflation effect over a large sample size. Also, score adjusted possession stats have a stronger correlation to predicting wins/success vs regular unadjusted numbers, so if these were BS like you said that wouldn't be the case, and it's not just noise because the sample size is multiple seasons at this point.

Though I'm sure if Babcock had better adjusted possession metrics than Keefe though you would be silent on this.

As for your last part, I can make my points however I want to

 

[1specter]

My thoughts on the game

1- Hutch was solid and calm in net. Didn't make highlight reel saves, but good positonal ones. Needed to have a "statement game" to save his NHL career, good on him. Keep feeding him soft games until he can re-earn the trust of Keefe.

2. Keefe made a lot of good in-game adjustments when he saw stuff that wasn't working. This is the kind of coach this team needs to get going.

3. Thought the Muzzin slew-foot was dirty, love the guy but can't be doing that stupid crap out there either. Also thought AA was a moron too by trying to take out Kerfoot.

All in all solid game, onto the next.

That wasn't a slew foot, I'm not sure why people keep saying that.

Muzzin and Mantha got caught in a shoving match and as Muzzin spun around while grabbing Mantha their legs got tied. That definitely wasn't intentional and Muzzin isn't a dirty player

 

[Kingstondude84]

That wasn't a slew foot, I'm not sure why people keep saying that.

Muzzin and Mantha got caught in a shoving match and as Muzzin spun around while grabbing Mantha their legs got tied. That definitely wasn't intentional and Muzzin isn't a dirty player

52.1 Slew-footing – Slew-footing is the act of a player or goalkeeper using his leg or foot to knock or kick an opponent's feet from under him, or pushes an opponent's upper body backward with an arm or elbow, and at the same time with a forward motion of his leg, knocks or kicks the opponent's feet from under him, ...May 13, 2013

That is the definition of it, now watch the replay again to see if it checkes off those boxes. Uses his leg to knock/kick Mantha's legs from under him? Check. At the same time uses an arm/elbow with a forward motion? Check. It was a classic slew foot that he did, there's really no debating it. "Muzzin isn't a dirty player", while true, really doesn't offer up a good defense of his actions.

Let me ask you something here, if AA did what Muzzin did on Matthews, would you still be saying it wasn't a dity incident?

 

[KIWILEAFFAN]

52.1 Slew-footing – Slew-footing is the act of a player or goalkeeper using his leg or foot to knock or kick an opponent's feet from under him, or pushes an opponent's upper body backward with an arm or elbow, and at the same time with a forward motion of his leg, knocks or kicks the opponent's feet from under him, ...May 13, 2013

That is the definition of it, now watch the replay again to see if it checkes off those boxes. Uses his leg to knock/kick Mantha's legs from under him? Check. At the same time uses an arm/elbow with a forward motion? Check. It was a classic slew foot that he did, there's really no debating it. "Muzzin isn't a dirty player", while true, really doesn't offer up a good defense of his actions.

Let me ask you something here, if AA did what Muzzin did on Matthews, would you still be saying it wasn't a dity incident?

Well, the powers that be didn't see anything in it or Muzz would have been disciplined regardless of how random fans like to interpret what they think they saw.
He wasn't disciplined as far as I am aware. End of story.
If Mantha didn't overreact it wouldnt have happened. His own fault imo.

 

[Kingstondude84]

Well, the powers that be didn't see anything in it or Muzz would have been disciplined regardless of how random fans like to interpret what they think they saw.
He wasn't disciplined as far as I am aware. End of story.
If Mantha didn't overreact it wouldnt have happened. His own fault imo.

Department of Safety isn't exactly a model for consistency for handing matters, that's putting it mildly. Also you're really not helping your cause here, AA had a dirty hit and the league did nothing as well, I guess by your logic that was a clean hit too right? I agree, Mantha over-reacted to a very clean hit, there was no reason for him to leap in there like an idiot looking for a fight, reminded me a lot of how Kadri acted like a tool by going at Boston's player last year for a clean hit on Marleau.

 

[KIWILEAFFAN]

If AA had of injured kerfoot then he would have got done. How can you prove intent to injure, with no injury?
Your implying a slewfoot by Muzzin. I cant see how he consciously intended to do it. He was defending himself from getting smacked in the face after a crosscheck to the same area.
I dont give a rats ass how DOS performs. They must get it right sometimes.

 

[Pookie]

... Most teams go into a defensive shell when they lead, which inflates the shot attempts of the team trailing;

Think about what you are saying

1. Possession wins games

2. When winning those games, teams change their style of play. They trap. They collapse the net. Etc. Meaning they don’t play a “possession game” anymore

3. Therefore, we need to adjust their numbers.

4. And viola, possession wins games

It’s so intellectually dishonest yet it’s right in front of you and you can’t see it

again they've collected over a decade of data on this and determined the inflation effect over a large sample size.

It doesn’t matter how long you’ve used a fudge factor.

Also, score adjusted possession stats have a stronger correlation to predicting wins/success vs regular unadjusted numbers, so if these were BS like you said that wouldn't be the case, and it's not just noise because the sample size is multiple seasons at this point.

And of course bumping a winning team’s possession numbers would make it look like possession is correlated to winning

Even when by your own admission they aren’t playing a possession game.

Perhaps the trap or other forms of defensive prowess are better correlated.

Though I'm sure if Babcock had better adjusted possession metrics than Keefe though you would be silent on this.

As for your last part, I can make my points however I want to

Nope. Already been through this. Coaching is way down on the list is important factors that influence an outcome. Said it with Babcock and said it with Keefe.

 

[Kingstondude84]

If AA had of injured kerfoot then he would have got done. How can you prove intent to injure, with no injury?
Your implying a slewfoot by Muzzin. I cant see how he consciously intended to do it. He was defending himself from getting smacked in the face after a crosscheck to the same area.
I dont give a rats ass how DOS performs. They must get it right sometimes.

Happens all the time in games when players are given match penalties.... I'm not implying anything, I'm coming right out and saying what I saw. Maybe or maybe not in regards AA gets suspended if he connects on that knee-on-knee, I've given up trying to figure out what the league considers a suspendable play vs what they don't.

 

[MyBudJT]

The players being happy and playing in a drastically different style suited to their strengths also had NOTHING to do with it...

How did you infer this from my post?

 

[Stephen]

Think about what you are saying

1. Possession wins games

2. When winning those games, teams change their style of play. They trap. They collapse the net. Etc. Meaning they don’t play a “possession game” anymore

3. Therefore, we need to adjust their numbers.

4. And viola, possession wins games

It’s so intellectually dishonest yet it’s right in front of you and you can’t see it

I can't wait till the NHL starts publishing puck and player tracking data and we can migrate the conversation towards numbers that track possession.

 

[Commander Clueless]

That wasn't a slew foot, I'm not sure why people keep saying that.

Muzzin and Mantha got caught in a shoving match and as Muzzin spun around while grabbing Mantha their legs got tied. That definitely wasn't intentional and Muzzin isn't a dirty player

Intentional or not, Muzzin's wrestling move is dangerous. A suspension would not have been out of order.

 

[1specter]

Intentional or not, Muzzin's wrestling move is dangerous. A suspension would not have been out of order.

Look I'm not condoning slamming dudes to the ice but let's not pretend he's the first to do it...Most 'fights' these days in the NHL end in hugging matches where one guy gets wrestled down. Most of the time being grappled down is actually safer than getting punched in the head and accumulating CTE..