Ultimately when I look at it from every angle, you have to steer clear of the path which has the worst possible outcome,
The worst possible outcome is that you don't match.. KK hits his potential and all you have to show for it are two measly draft picks at the end of their respective rounds.
The way I see it.
Matching the OS.
Best possible outcome: KK hits or shows progress toward his ultimate upside and you can comfortable make a long term deal with him.
Worst possible outcome: You don't tender him at his QO next season and try to sign him back, if he goes elsewhere. All you are out in aggregate is a late 1st and early 3rd.
Not matching the OS.
Best possible outcome: Carolina somehow misses the play-offs (most unlikely) and you have another first in the lottery.. and KK shows no real progression in his game, whereby Carolina walks away from him.
Worst possible outcome: KK hits his progression, Carolina is now deep down the middle and can be a legitimate contender for years behind Aho and KK, while we are picking a player of Poehling's caliber and back to missing a top 6 center with size again, like we have for the previous 20 years before we selected him.
Matching the OS is the best option of a bunch of not great options because MB sucks.