Long term we'd like to. Like how developed the area is without being the city itself. Reminds me more of the Triangle than any other section of the greater Atlanta area. Great place for the kid(s) to grow up.
Hurricanes Lounge, XXXIII: Danger Zone
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Long term we'd like to. Like how developed the area is without being the city itself. Reminds me more of the Triangle than any other section of the greater Atlanta area. Great place for the kid(s) to grow up.
Boom Boom Apathy
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While I agree it's not sustainable and there will be some ramifications, there are a lot of differences between now and 2008.
1) Most importantly, is inventory (as I mentioned earlier). Right before the bubble burst in 2008, there was an inventory of upwards of 19,000 homes available in the area. Now, there aren't 2000. People who invested in real estate and builders took a pounding in 2008 because of all the excess inventory that they couldn't sell. Unless something changes, that won't be the case here.
2) In 2006/7, almost 25% of mortgages were of the subprime variety, so people at very high risk of defaulting. I thought I read that today, it's around half that number (loans that were similar to subprime back then, many now called something different ).
3) During the 08 bubble, the ratio of household debt to GDP in the US was at an all time high between 95-100%. Today it's ticked up but at 78% which is lower than it was even in 2015.
4) In 08, the % of household debt service payments to personal disposable income in the US was 13%. Today it is 9.4% and lower than it was before the pandemic started.
Maybe in a year or two things will get to the point where they were in 2008, but it was the wild, wild west in 2008 in terms of sub prime lending, appraisers falsely inflating appraisals to increase loan amount, banks turning a blind eye, etc.. If any of you have never seen "Too Big to Fail", it's worth a watch, but is a bit frightening how close to the edge the country (and world) was.
Still, where the risk today comes in is the economy. If it falters badly and people lose income via job loss, the housing market should suffer.
1) Most importantly, is inventory (as I mentioned earlier). Right before the bubble burst in 2008, there was an inventory of upwards of 19,000 homes available in the area. Now, there aren't 2000. People who invested in real estate and builders took a pounding in 2008 because of all the excess inventory that they couldn't sell. Unless something changes, that won't be the case here.
2) In 2006/7, almost 25% of mortgages were of the subprime variety, so people at very high risk of defaulting. I thought I read that today, it's around half that number (loans that were similar to subprime back then, many now called something different ).
3) During the 08 bubble, the ratio of household debt to GDP in the US was at an all time high between 95-100%. Today it's ticked up but at 78% which is lower than it was even in 2015.
4) In 08, the % of household debt service payments to personal disposable income in the US was 13%. Today it is 9.4% and lower than it was before the pandemic started.
Maybe in a year or two things will get to the point where they were in 2008, but it was the wild, wild west in 2008 in terms of sub prime lending, appraisers falsely inflating appraisals to increase loan amount, banks turning a blind eye, etc.. If any of you have never seen "Too Big to Fail", it's worth a watch, but is a bit frightening how close to the edge the country (and world) was.
Still, where the risk today comes in is the economy. If it falters badly and people lose income via job loss, the housing market should suffer.
- Jan 15, 2021
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NotOpie
"Puck don't lie"
Feel for you buddy.....the only issue with waiting is that sooner rather than later the low interest rates/easy money are going to go away.
I've got a rental property in Chapel Hill and I've had several unsolicited "discussions". For shits and giggles, I went on OpenDoor to see what my house would "sell" for. It was crazy, something like $250,000 above what I've got in it. So now I'm considering taking advantage because I'm not so sure that a couple more months of choppy economic news won't slow things down.
That said, I heard this AM on CNBC that housing starts were down something like 9% contributing to the inventory short-fall. Add to that the increase in materials cost and the labor shortage and you've got a supply and demand economic case study. One interesting thing is that builders are "starting" their houses but that only entails pouring the slab as they are hoping that, among other things, lumber prices come down (which they have been for the last week or two). Still, it inflates the housing starts number without providing any livable inventory. It does, however, probably allow them to access their construction loans to keep their cash flow rolling.
You could have it sold within days - so far the only things we've seen on the market for more than a few days are ones that accepted offers and then the offer fell through so they needed to restart.
And yeah, we are looking at a lot of places that we'd like to make minor upgrades to, e.g. the place we currently have an offer on has carpet in the master bath (?!?) and we'll want to get that tiled. Not sure whether the inventory issues would affect our ability to get that type of work done.
Roboturner913
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- Jul 3, 2012
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Finally got one, just found out tonight. Had to bid 20K over asking price and there were 12 offers. The house was only on the market for one day.
I'm gonna have to sell one of my cars and probably raid the wife's 401K to cover the difference, but oh well. That's the game you have to play these days I guess.
Man, people did some weird shit in the 90s and almost none of it has aged well. My mom and dad built their house in 92. Bathroom had a pink jet tub with a giant mirror covering the wall behind it, pink carpeting with steps down from the tub, textured wallpaper with roses and a dark green ceiling. I hadn't seen it in years, I went back home a few weeks ago and it was even uglier than I had remembered.
The 90s may be, aesthetically speaking, the worst decade of my existence. Which is something when you think about the excess and tackiness of the late 80s.
I'm gonna have to sell one of my cars and probably raid the wife's 401K to cover the difference, but oh well. That's the game you have to play these days I guess.
Man, people did some weird shit in the 90s and almost none of it has aged well. My mom and dad built their house in 92. Bathroom had a pink jet tub with a giant mirror covering the wall behind it, pink carpeting with steps down from the tub, textured wallpaper with roses and a dark green ceiling. I hadn't seen it in years, I went back home a few weeks ago and it was even uglier than I had remembered.
The 90s may be, aesthetically speaking, the worst decade of my existence. Which is something when you think about the excess and tackiness of the late 80s.
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I'm sorry, but any decade that doesn't have shag carpet and olive green appliances can take a backseat the the 70's.
Congratulations!
Our offer (also $20k over asking) was rejected, they were "blown away" by some other offer which makes us think it was $40k or $50k over. Back to the grind.
Navin R Slavin
Fifth line center
Finnish Jerk Train
lol stupid mickey mouse organization
We're shopping too, but our problem is we're picky at a time when there's not much to pick from. We've been at it for a year and a half and made zero offers. It's always been a seller's market, but things definitely got wilder right around New Years.
Yesterday we walked through one that was probably the closest we've come to finding what we want in terms of space and build quality, but I don't think you can actually park cars in the garage (unless you don't care about banging the doors against the wall). It had two single doors and it's exactly 18 feet wide.
We're not doing sight unseen offers because build quality matters to us. So anything we want, we're going to have to fight like hell for. The other option is a fixer upper, but even those are going for way above ask in a lot of cases.
Yesterday we talked to a remodeler about doing an addition instead. We're still waiting on his ballpark number, but it sounds like it would cost $150k to $200k to add on the space we're looking for (300-400 SF with a full bathroom, screened porch, and shop space in the basement), as well as fix up or hide all the stupid quality issues left by the original builder. Probably cheaper to move, but we can't find anything we want where we want it.
Yesterday we walked through one that was probably the closest we've come to finding what we want in terms of space and build quality, but I don't think you can actually park cars in the garage (unless you don't care about banging the doors against the wall). It had two single doors and it's exactly 18 feet wide.
We're not doing sight unseen offers because build quality matters to us. So anything we want, we're going to have to fight like hell for. The other option is a fixer upper, but even those are going for way above ask in a lot of cases.
Yesterday we talked to a remodeler about doing an addition instead. We're still waiting on his ballpark number, but it sounds like it would cost $150k to $200k to add on the space we're looking for (300-400 SF with a full bathroom, screened porch, and shop space in the basement), as well as fix up or hide all the stupid quality issues left by the original builder. Probably cheaper to move, but we can't find anything we want where we want it.
The Faulker 27
Registered User
I've had these discussions with numerous friends, and neighbors. It's a tough time right now for everyone but sellers, and people already settled. Even for sellers, you're only making out if putting back into a fixer upper, or going to a reasonable renting situation or something (aka retirees).
We know people that are building and taking on 50 and 60k+ more than they would have in materials alone. It's kind of crazy to be honest, and I wonder if some of these folks will regret paying the prices they are, but it also depends on how long you plan to stay, and of course your overall money situation. If it's 20 years, fine, but if it's 5 that's hard to justify even for people that are well off. Unless it's necessary of course. If you've outgrown your house, need to be closer to work, school districts, etc it is what it is. Prices will eventually come down, but who knows when.
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In our situation, we are renting right now at basically the same price as the collective monthly cost of homeownership would be (mortgage+PMI+property taxes, etc. excluding maintenance) so even if I don’t get a “deal”, as long as I find something reasonable to stash equity away in, I’m happy.
If I already owned a home right now, even if I was in desperate need of more space, I’d wait a year and make it work in the meantime. But we’re just at the point now where tossing our rent away each month doesn’t make sense.
If I already owned a home right now, even if I was in desperate need of more space, I’d wait a year and make it work in the meantime. But we’re just at the point now where tossing our rent away each month doesn’t make sense.
The Faulker 27
Registered User
It's a hard time for renters with the prices, but at least you're not overpaying for a house you don't really want and were rushed into buying. That's the silver lining. You're paying for a place to call home at the moment, and you don't have to deal with the constant stress of home ownership. There's something to be said for that given the fact that it's just temporary. You know you'll be buying eventually, so enjoy that renters life while you have it.
Offer #7 (wife says #6, hard to keep track) is out the door, wish us luck.
Navin R Slavin
Fifth line center
HisIceness
This is Hurricanes Hockey
Navin R Slavin
Fifth line center
I hope so! Because I did not. Hoo boy.
Roboturner913
Registered User
- Jul 3, 2012
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Unless you're like a very experienced house inspector or contractor, you never really know what you're getting into. And even then, things can hide from you. I can see the cast iron water main in our basement looks fine, but after it disappears behind the concrete wall? Not a clue. It could be soft as hell behind there. No way to know without knocking the whole damn wall down and digging out the basement, and clearly I'm not going to do that just to check to see if there might be a problem.
Like My place I had to put a 10 ft concrete patio cause the foundation wasn't done right and the wall was gettign soaked. it was improving with what we had done there but then the Water main leaked. (Let me tell you city water isn't THAT cheap!) and now that wall of course is wet again but it's getting better.. slowly.. but that was a ton of water.
Roboturner913
Registered User
- Jul 3, 2012
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Our new house has a supposed "two car garage" that was being sold "as-is" and I couldn't figure out why until I actually went there and looked at it.
For one, there is a pizza oven built into the side of the garage that goes back about six feet into it. So there's already no way you can park two cars in there.
Then, the AC unit (which is gigantic, must be some kind of industrial unit) is in front of the garage door, in such a way that you have to go around it a little bit to get the one car that would fit in there, in there. And I guarantee you if I got the car parked in there, I'd forget about it the next day, back straight out and destroy both my car and the A/C.
So we'll just be parking in the driveway, and that's fine. It's just one of those examples where in a normal housing market we probably would've moved on and looked at something else, but with the way things are now, you can't afford to pass up a house over one flaw like that, even if it's a real annoyance.
But hell man, I grew up in a trailer park, any house that doesn't have wheels and a trailer hitch on it seems f***ing amazing to me.
Fair enough. What I mean is just that I’m aware of the general costs of homeownership. We are buying well within our means in order to account for the inevitability of everything breaking within a year of moving in.
Also looking more into attached townhomes, which often have some of the more structural/outdoor maintenance covered by the HOA.
Agreed that you never really know what’ll come up, just maybe read a little too much “ok kid” into the original comment as if I didn’t realize the full cost of ownership. Was just being prideful and punchy, my bad. Who knows, maybe I don’t know what I don’t know.
Navin R Slavin
Fifth line center
You definitely don't know what you don't know, because you can't.
We hired a house inspector before we bought our place, even though it was new construction, and he still couldn't find everything, like the fact that the builders raised our beautiful lot out of a flood plain (which we knew) with fill dirt that consisted of all the accumulated garbage from the entire subdivision (which we definitely did not know). No regulations about what you can put in fill dirt! We're still finding buried boards, bricks, and Jarritos bottles 20 years later. Or the fact that half of the lights were installed without junction boxes, which is an egregious violation of code and a bitch when you decide you want to replace that hideous builder light fixture in the master bath. Or the fact that the overflow hole in the beautiful upstairs garden tub wasn't even plumbed (!?), so the first time we filled the tub a little too full it came through our kitchen ceiling and shorted the lights. Or the fact that sometimes you can go on vacation and come back to a shattered shower door in tiny pieces all over your floor, just because sometimes that spontaneously happens with poorly tempered shower glass! Or the fact that Bradford pears are garbage trees and should be outlawed because they are guaranteed to split in 30 years, and in our case one of them split in 10 and crashed into our garage and my truck.
I'm still glad to be a homeowner, but one of the reasons I won't move again until I absolutely must is because I never want to deal with this bullshit ever again. After 20 years I finally mostly know all the bullshit I'm gonna be dealing with, and the place is paid for, thank God.
Also, f*** HOAs to death, the governance entities that make me understand deeply why one might choose to be a Republican. Or a libertarian. Or a f***ing anarchist.
We hired a house inspector before we bought our place, even though it was new construction, and he still couldn't find everything, like the fact that the builders raised our beautiful lot out of a flood plain (which we knew) with fill dirt that consisted of all the accumulated garbage from the entire subdivision (which we definitely did not know). No regulations about what you can put in fill dirt! We're still finding buried boards, bricks, and Jarritos bottles 20 years later. Or the fact that half of the lights were installed without junction boxes, which is an egregious violation of code and a bitch when you decide you want to replace that hideous builder light fixture in the master bath. Or the fact that the overflow hole in the beautiful upstairs garden tub wasn't even plumbed (!?), so the first time we filled the tub a little too full it came through our kitchen ceiling and shorted the lights. Or the fact that sometimes you can go on vacation and come back to a shattered shower door in tiny pieces all over your floor, just because sometimes that spontaneously happens with poorly tempered shower glass! Or the fact that Bradford pears are garbage trees and should be outlawed because they are guaranteed to split in 30 years, and in our case one of them split in 10 and crashed into our garage and my truck.
I'm still glad to be a homeowner, but one of the reasons I won't move again until I absolutely must is because I never want to deal with this bullshit ever again. After 20 years I finally mostly know all the bullshit I'm gonna be dealing with, and the place is paid for, thank God.
Also, f*** HOAs to death, the governance entities that make me understand deeply why one might choose to be a Republican. Or a libertarian. Or a f***ing anarchist.
Do you feel over the long haul you’ve spent more than 3-4% of the home value per year because of all that stuff? My point is that I won’t know what it is specifically, but as long as it’s within an appropriate range over the long haul, I’m good for it.
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