How will you celebrate if the Sabres win the lottery?

[FearTheBeard]

I asked this question recently in the Business of Hockey and got a pretty solid response.

A bank firm and an NHL representative watch the actual drawing, and it's taped live (just not shown on tv). They draw 4 balls corresponding to a set of numbers on a large chart, and whoever matches that combination wins the lottery. There are too many eyes on it for it to be fixed.

Oh thats interesting and reassuring. I never knew that. Thanks for the info!

As for the lottery and the changes to the draft. Neither the NFL nor MLB has such a proven result for their top picks.

Not only that, but the MLB has such a long season, every single day, its almost impossible to tank. When you're that bad, there is no 1 player that can turn a team around that quickly. It would take 4-5 premium position players, and 2-3 pitchers minimum. And thats just to make the playoffs.Additionally, #1 overall picks usually don't make it to the big club for a couple of years anyways, and like you said, its more hit and miss. MLB has no reason to make the draft a lottery, and tanking will never really be an issue.

 

[1972]

My heart rate is going to be 170 watching the lottery.

If we draft McDavid that will be the #1 selling jersey in the NHL next year.

 

[HiddenInLight]

My heart rate is going to be 170 watching the lottery.

If we draft McDavid that will be the #1 selling jersey in the NHL next year.

I think McDavid will likely be the top selling jersey no matter where he goes. I remember going to the Erie Otters vs Niagara Ice Dogs game at the effin center, and he just looked to be way out of the league. It looked as if you could see him think "Okay, were going to score a goal now" and a few seconds later the puck was in the net. That kid is going to be something special for whatever team drafts him.

 

[Vito_81]

Ill be buying a bottle of Johnnie Walker Blue Label.

Because with McDavid, my tastes just got much more sophisticated.

 

[Sabre the Win]

I would be extremely ecstatic and continue to wear my Reinhart jersey with pride. I feel I'm going to be the few select fans at FNC without a McDavid jersey even tho I want the kid on Buffalo so bad.

 

[HiddenInLight]

I would be extremely ecstatic and continue to wear my Reinhart jersey with pride. I feel I'm going to be the few select fans at FNC without a McDavid jersey even tho I want the kid on Buffalo so bad.

I will happily continue to wear my Girgensons Jersey, but I would be thrilled to watch him play in Buffalo.

 

[Sabre the Win]

I will happily continue to wear my Girgensons Jersey, but I would be thrilled to watch him play in Buffalo.

Girgensons is still a rarer jersey to see around the arena, it's fun being different.

 

[HiddenInLight]

Girgensons is still a rarer jersey to see around the arena, it's fun being different.

Hopefully we will see more of his name around as he continues to get better. The guy is the type of player this city usually loves. I had to replace my Miller Slug jersey once miller was traded, and he was one of the only players on the team that I can see sticking around for a long time. Last year was not a good year for my jerseys, owning a Ryan Miller and a Stevie Johnson.

 

[joshjull]

While the NFL isn't as proven with their top picks, the first overall pick is often not BPA, which is the norm in the NHL. There are many times that the first overall pick is based on team needs, and this is shown in recent years with the recent inflation of value of the QB position. If the NFL were similar, you would often see a Center taken over other positions simply because he is a center, even if he isn't the best player in the draft. Draft lotteries leave a bad taste in many fans' mouths. Just look at the NBA draft which is widely believed to be fixed.

You're missing the point.


http://hockeyanalysis.com/2006/06/24/draft-schmaft-from-draft-pick-to-nhler/

As you can see, there is a fairly steady decline in the odds of drafting a NHL calibre player the deeper you go in the draft. Beyond the early second round (>40th overall) the odds of drafting an NHL First line player are quite slim and even having a draft pick develop into an NHL regular is quite poor (~15% chance at best). The flip side of this is that top 5 picks are almost certainly going to be NHL Regulars or better and top 10 picks do very well as well. Beyond that things get much less predictable as even mid-first round picks (position 11-20) have ~25% chance of being a complete dud and only about a 40% chance of becoming an NHL regular or better.

The odds of drafting a NHL player are pretty long in the NHL draft period, let alone a superstar. The very top picks are where you have a shot at a superstar. In some years its close to a guarantee with the top pick becoming that type of player.

There is very little if anything in common with the NHL and NFL drafts and how the teams use them.

The NFL drafts for position because they are drafting grown men and building their roster for the upcoming season. Dozens of the players drafted each year become starters in the NFL and many more become roster players. Each NFL team drafts players they fully expect to contribute the following season as either starters or depth. There is no where near the level of guess work and projecting with the NFL draft that goes into the NHL draft.

That being said, I'd be the first one to eat crow if the results come out in our favor. I simply don't believe that they will.

I fail to see how this would prove or disprove any sort of conspiracy when the math says we have an 80% chance of losing the lottery.



EDIT: That article was from 2004. Since then player development and drafting has evolved but the underlying point is the same. Teams have a much greater shot at a top line player drafting at the top of the draft (Picks 1-5) and getting a superstar with pick #1. This makes those picks incredibly valuable in a way that simply isn't the case in the NFL.

 

[Sean McG]

I'll be going nuts, running and jumping around my living room. Probably throw 'We Are The Champions' while I order my McDavid jersey. That being said...

I'll be excited. But, honestly, I'll be just as pumped when we seal 30th place.

I'll probably end up doing the same for this too. I want McDavid, but he'd be the cherry on top. Absolutely love both (who doesn't) and finishing 30th would certainly be cause for celebration that night.

 

[HiddenInLight]

You're missing the point.


http://hockeyanalysis.com/2006/06/24/draft-schmaft-from-draft-pick-to-nhler/

The odds of drafting a NHL player are pretty long in the NHL draft period, let alone a superstar. The very top picks are where you have a shot at a superstar. In some years its close to a guarantee with the top pick becoming that type of player.

There is very little if anything in common with the NHL and NFL drafts and how the teams use them.

The NFL drafts for position because they are drafting grown men and building their roster for the upcoming season. Dozens of the players drafted each year become starters in the NFL and many more become roster players. Each NFL team drafts players they fully expect to contribute the following season as either starters or depth. There is no where near the level of guess work and projecting with the NFL draft that goes into the NHL draft.



I fail to see how this would prove or disprove any sort of conspiracy when the math says we have an 80% chance of losing the lottery.

The fact is that taking the best players away from the teams that need them most does not promote more competition between teams in the league. All it does is make sure that the better teams keep getting the better players, while the teams that really need the help don't.

 

[MayDayMayDay]

McDavid Jersey. John Walker Black Label & Coke.

Ill be buying a bottle of Johnnie Walker Blue Label.

Because with McDavid, my tastes just got much more sophisticated.

Never actually had it. Any good??

 

[Vito_81]

Never actually had it. Any good??

I havent had the Blue Label yet.


I'll let you know how it is after the lottery

 

[Bps21*]

2 Divisional Championships, 2 ECF Appearances.

LITERAL HELL

I think you are purposely ignoring that those things happened when our top 2 Cs were Briere and Drury.

 

[SiDC1]

So you're saying you wouldn't celebrate if today the Sabres made a trade for one of Crosby/Stamkos/Tavares/Toews/MacKinnon ???


Pleeeaase.

So you're comparing several established stars to a kid who hasn't been drafted yet.....ok.

 

[joshjull]

The fact is that taking the best players away from the teams that need them most does not promote more competition between teams in the league. All it does is make sure that the better teams keep getting the better players, while the teams that really need the help don't.

Nothing in your post is taking place.

The NHL has reduced what is guaranteed to the 30th place team in the league. Thats it. They still have the best shot at the #1 pick, if they miss out then the best shot at the #2 pick and then the #3 pick. They are guaranteed a top 4 pick instead of a top 2 pick. Which obviously keeps them in the top 5 even if they lose each lottery. The best way to rebuild a team is to tear it down and get as many picks in the top two rounds as you can. By tearing your team down you will also pick near or at the top of the draft. None of this will change going forward. You're just no longer guaranteed a top 2 pick. But you will still get a top 4 pick which is where the players you need are found. And you have a slightly better shot at picking #1 overall without finishing last but its still a long shot.

Many owners are sick of the crappy run franchises getting a lot of top picks and that was one of the driving forces behind the changes. You talk about those teams needing help and your right. But the help they need is at the ownership or management level of both. Its not with where they pick in the draft. The Oil in particular have had a decent amount of very high picks (three straight #1 overall picks among them) and are right at the bottom of the standings yet again.

And where did you come up with this completely false idea that the lottery change means the better teams will get the better players? None of the better teams in the league will even be involved in the lottery. And the ones with the best shot at winning it are the teams at the bottom of the standings.

 

[RecycledEichel]

A guy like McDavid comes around once every 10 years.. Your team is 1 out of 30 NHL teams.. Odds are you will get 1 McDavid every 300 years..

You better believe I'm gonna party!

 

[7 11 14]

Idk how I'll celebrate, but I'll be satisfied to know that sucking worse than any Sabres team before got us a #1 C for the first time since trading for LaFontaine. I have to ask, do the Sabres have the longest 'legit first-line center' drought in the league? Is there any team that can match us with that? The closest thing we've had since LaFontaine was 06-07 Briere, but Idk aside from that...

 

[hizzoner]

I will buy the grandsons who go to the Sabres games with me each a McDavid sweater. I will drink a second beer with my hot wings. I will stay up past 11 o'clock and giggle.....

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

I would spend all day reading the cry baby haters post on the main forum how we are purposely tanking and a "disgrace"... When most of the posts are from lightning and isles fans. Considering most are 15 years old anyway they have a short memory on how god awful and embarrassing their teams were for a decade +.

 

[joshjull]

Idk how I'll celebrate, but I'll be satisfied to know that sucking worse than any Sabres team before got us a #1 C for the first time since trading for LaFontaine. I have to ask, do the Sabres have the longest 'legit first-line center' drought in the league? Is there any team that can match us with that? The closest thing we've had since LaFontaine was 06-07 Briere, but Idk aside from that...

Hard to argue the drought goes back to Patty when we had Briere.

 

[7 11 14]

Hard to argue the drought goes back to Patty when we had Briere.

That's true. Only things suspect to me about Briere is that A. He really only put up 1C numbers for 2 years here before leaving and B. After he left, he never came close to those numbers again.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

I asked this question recently in the Business of Hockey and got a pretty solid response.

A bank firm and an NHL representative watch the actual drawing, and it's taped live (just not shown on tv). They draw 4 balls corresponding to a set of numbers on a large chart, and whoever matches that combination wins the lottery. There are too many eyes on it for it to be fixed.

The NHL should televise this drawing instead of the lame team card countdown. As is, there is actually a sort of reverse "reveal" where a team is skipped over and assumed the winner if they are aren't the last place team.

Drawing four numbers doesn't sound too dramatic either, but as each number is drawn (say about 30 seconds apart), a separate graphic could show which teams are still alive for #1. Imagine a list of the 14 teams down the left side of the screen with the numbers being drawn on the main screen. As each number pops up, some team names get grayed out. A number chart could even be available as a print out for fans ahead of time so they could follow along a little closer, and let them know which number combinations will win for their team.

It would be more interesting, more exciting, and perhaps eliminate some of the conspiracy complaints.

Oh...as for how I will celebrate - I will sit back in my chair with an evil grin like Emperor Palpatine and tapping my fingertips together like Mr. Burns, saying, "Excellent...it is as I have foreseen it" over and over again. Then I will crush pinned voodoo dolls with Oilers and Canes emblems under my boots. Then light them on fire.

 

[ZZamboni]

I'd be happy. I'd pump my fist. I may even yell in excitement...

Thats about it :shrug:

 

[DazedandConfused]

Probably workout and eat some pancakes. Maybe a few wobbly pops if ya twist my arm hard enough!

When is it? If the date's even been announced.