Speculation: How we fit under the cap in 21-22

[Ozmodiar]

If he lets Armia and Tatar walk for free, I'd be pissed as hell

I understand this line of thinking, but MB is in win now mode.

There’s not much money to get an extension done and MB won’t sell for futures if he thinks it will hurt his playoff chances. Tatar is like their TDL rental, without the trade.

 

[danyhabsfan]

If KK continues his progression, you're dreaming. I'll be shocked if he signs anything less than 6M.

you do know what a bridge contract is?

you're way off with your 6M.

That would be a very long deal after a very good season by KK

 

[TopTenPlayz]

I understand this line of thinking, but MB is in win now mode.

There’s not much money to get an extension done and MB won’t sell for futures if he thinks it will hurt his playoff chances. Tatar is like their TDL rental, without the trade.

Even with the shining new acquisitions, this team is nowhere close to chasing the cup. So Bergevin can't be in a win now mode. He even said he wasn't: "I don't think I'm in an all-in scenario because I didn't trade any top prospects or draft picks." That's what he said at his most recent presser.

Even then, many contending/playoffs teams have traded away soon to be free agents at the deadline. Paul Stastny, 2 years ago, from st.louis to Winnipeg comes to mind. Tatar and Armia are very valuable pieces that would bring back interesting returns (i would re-sign Armia tbh) hence Bergevin should eat his own shit if he let those two walk for free.

 

[tinyzombies]

he’ll focus on the left side next year.

Byron traded, Tatar walks.
Brandon Saad signed to a Toffoli-like contract. He won’t get 6 again.

Armia walks.
Danault signs for 5M.
Lehkonen signs for around the same as his previous contract.

A LD to Seattle, Romanov moves to top 4.

This leaves 1.7 in space for an upgrade. Option: give Seattle a pick to take Kulak instead of JE.

drouin - Suzuki - Anderson
Saad - Danault - Gally
Toffoli - KK - caufield
Lehkonen - Poehling- Evans
Belzile

chiarot - Weber
Romanov - petry
Mete - fleury
Kulak

Saad would be amazing because it would dilute Col and fix a lot of problems for us and turn RS points into PO points. Helps with size and transition. We still need a qb on the backend.

 

[tinyzombies]

Even with the shining new acquisitions, this team is nowhere close to chasing the cup. So Bergevin can't be in a win now mode. He even said he wasn't: "I don't think I'm in an all-in scenario because I didn't trade any top prospects or draft picks." That's what he said at his most recent presser.

Even then, many contending/playoffs teams have traded away soon to be free agents at the deadline. Paul Stastny, 2 years ago, from st.louis to Winnipeg comes to mind. Tatar and Armia are very valuable pieces that would bring back interesting returns (i would re-sign Armia tbh) hence Bergevin should eat his own shit if he let those two walk for free.

I wouldn't say nowhere close. Need to fix left side and add a QB to the blueline. Not sure where they're going to land a QB tho...

We can definitely compete with anyone in a Canadian division. And we have a better goalie than Colorado. Vegas has issues scoring, we aren't too far behind them. Tampa will be slightly diluted and we would have lots of trouble with them like everyone else, especially with their speed/skill combo up front AND they have a great goalie too...

 

[Miller Time]

With the growing number of long term contracts that are being signed, I feel we now have a clearer picture of what is considered to be the core of the team, and of what it may look like in 2021-22. And the way I see it, it's almost possible to keep with core intact for a few years, even with a flat cap, by replacing expensive 4th line and bottom pair players with youngsters.

Players signed for 2021-22 :

1-Drouin
2-Anderson
3-Toffoli
4-Gallagher
5-Byron
6-Suzuki
7-Evans

1-Weber
2-Petry
3-Chiarot
4-Edmundson
5-Kulak
6-Romanov

1-Price
2-Allen

Cap space : 15,55 M$ (15 players)

RFA

We have 3 RFA, but I expect only KK will get a rise. It will depend how good he plays this season, but we can probably expect a cheaper bridge contract anyway. For Lehkonen, I could see a lower salary if the economic situation remains the same.

8- Kotkaniemi : 3 M$
9- Lehkonen : 2 M$

7- Mete : 0,750 M$

Cap space : 9,8 M$ (18 players)

UFA + rookies

We need to add 5 forwards for that price. I think Danault has to be signed, because nobody can do what he does as well as him in the system. I will even add Armia, even if we could decide to move on from him at this point.

10- Danault : 5 M$
11- Armia : 3,5 M$

And I think we can expect a few youngsters to make the team. I'll add 3 of them.

12- Caufield : 0,850 M$
13- Poehling : 0,925 M$
14- Ylonen : 0,881 M$

Cap space : 3,644 M$ (23 players)

Expansion draft

Here comes the unpredictable part. One of our signed players will be drafted by Seattle, freeing cap space for us. I think the most likely scenario is that we protect 7 forwards (Drouin, Anderson, Toffoli, Gallagher, Danault, Kotkaniemi, Armia), 3 defensemen (Weber, Petry, Chiarot) and 1 goalie (Price). That leaves Lehkonen, Byron, Edmundson, Kulak and Allen exposed. Lehkonen and Allen are probably the 2 most likely candidates to be drafted. Let's say it's Allen, and we replace him with Primeau.

Cap space after expansion draft : 5,64 M$

Then we replace Allen with Primeau.

Drouin - Suzuki - Caufield
Toffoli - Danault - Gallagher
Ylonen - Kotkaniemi - Anderson
Lehkonen - Evans - Armia
Byron, Poehling

Romanov - Weber
Chiarot - Petry
Edmundson - Mete
Kulak

Price
Primeau

-------------------

Where does that leaves us?

We lose Tatar and Weal, but are easily able to retain all the other core players and more. And we still have over 5 millions in cap space. We could easily get more cap space by not signing Armia, or by trading Byron or Lehkonen. This would give us enough dollar to re-sign Tatar, or even a more expensive LW.

In conclusion, keeping our core intact absolutely won't be a problem, even with a flat cap, especially with the expansion draft coming.

The challenge might only come in 2022-23, if Suzuki needs a big raise. But until then, this team won't be in cap hell.

we are in very big trouble for 2022-23 IF we get anywhere close to the level of performance from our young players that we need to be successful the next two years (JKO, Suzuki, Romanov, Lekhonen, Mete)... we can't afford the expensive middle-tier players we have in bulk ANDspend 15M in nets AND pay the raises that will be required... something will have to give.

plus, our signed roster is going extremely heavy with players on the wrong side of 30

the cap will have to spike up, or we'll have to ship out some contracts. MB is banking on everything going right the next two years, otherwise we'll just be a mediocre/borderline playoff team with a cap spending budget and yet again looking at "re-tooling", only with an older Price/Weber/Petry

 

[BargainBinSpecial]

we are in very big trouble for 2022-23 IF we get anywhere close to the level of performance from our young players that we need to be successful the next two years (JKO, Suzuki, Romanov, Lekhonen, Mete)... we can't afford the expensive middle-tier players we have in bulk ANDspend 15M in nets AND pay the raises that will be required... something will have to give.

plus, our signed roster is going extremely heavy with players on the wrong side of 30

the cap will have to spike up, or we'll have to ship out some contracts. MB is banking on everything going right the next two years, otherwise we'll just be a mediocre/borderline playoff team with a cap spending budget and yet again looking at "re-tooling", only with an older Price/Weber/Petry

Seattle will help a bit by taking a player and the cap will likely spike up after the pandemic ends. That being said, Anderson's contract is the one that might hurt the Habs. I only see Suzuki and KK becoming dominant and guys like Toffoli, Drouin, Chiarot, Petry and Edmundson will be close to coming off the books. Granted that Price and Weber will be hard to move.

 

[DAChampion]

Seattle will help a bit by taking a player and the cap will likely spike up after the pandemic ends. That being said, Anderson's contract is the one that might hurt the Habs. I only see Suzuki and KK becoming dominant and guys like Toffoli, Drouin, Chiarot, Petry and Edmundson will be close to coming off the books. Granted that Price and Weber will be hard to move.

What if Seattle takes Mete?

 

[BigDaddyLurch]

What if Seattle takes Mete?

...we wave bye...or we sweeten a deal for them to take Allen...

 

[Miller Time]

Seattle will help a bit by taking a player and the cap will likely spike up after the pandemic ends. That being said, Anderson's contract is the one that might hurt the Habs. I only see Suzuki and KK becoming dominant and guys like Toffoli, Drouin, Chiarot, Petry and Edmundson will be close to coming off the books. Granted that Price and Weber will be hard to move.

Yes, they will be "close" to coming off the books... But not off the books barring trades, and the cap doesn't allow for "close" in any given season start.

So it's clear some player movement will happen, the challenge is that there is basically no room to add talent, while some talent will have to walk next summer.

We'll basically be in the Leafs/bolts situation, minus the elite top end talent (unless Suzuki/JKO/Romanov excel, in which case their raises will require even more aggressive selling off of 30+ vets.).

If cap stays flat, or worse, goes down at all, we are in for a rough ride.

 

[abo9]

Ooof I mean I'd love to be in Tampa's position and have cap troubles, but if Montreal is already in cap troubles then where does that leaves us?

For real though, we're not in cap troubles. There are a couple "easy" contracts that we can shed and replace by cheaper alternatives like Kulak, Byron, Allen, maybe Drouin.

I mean teams have it rougher and manage to trade their problems away. Our problems are not "that" expensive all things considered. I don't think KK will be poised for such a "big" increase, scoring 30 pts per year... He'll probably go for a short term, low money bridge deal so he can showcase himself better with more years behind the belt.

 

[Redux91]

No I agree, were nowhere near close to "in trouble" honestly

Everything is so manageable

 

[abo9]

I understand this line of thinking, but MB is in win now mode.

There’s not much money to get an extension done and MB won’t sell for futures if he thinks it will hurt his playoff chances. Tatar is like their TDL rental, without the trade.

"win now" Are we the worst team in "win now" mode? Quick quick before our Cup Window closes on our superstars... ehhh Weber and.... Danault? Nevermind, but everyone knows you don't need a superstar to win the Cup... just look at the Blues! The one team in 15 years to win without a superstar!
Obviously Danault == O'Reilly, Weber now == Pietrangelo, Anderson == Tarasenko... yeesh

I know you said "MB" is in win-now mode, so that's an attack on him not you

 

[BargainBinSpecial]

Yes, they will be "close" to coming off the books... But not off the books barring trades, and the cap doesn't allow for "close" in any given season start.

So it's clear some player movement will happen, the challenge is that there is basically no room to add talent, while some talent will have to walk next summer.

We'll basically be in the Leafs/bolts situation, minus the elite top end talent (unless Suzuki/JKO/Romanov excel, in which case their raises will require even more aggressive selling off of 30+ vets.).

If cap stays flat, or worse, goes down at all, we are in for a rough ride.

Don't think it goes down, likely shoots up with Seattle paying top dollar.

 

[Roadhouse]

Don't think it goes down, likely shoots up with Seattle paying top dollar.

It will be flat for "At least a couple years" and not go down at all if one is to believe Gary. Regardless of Seattle, which Bettman obviously factored into his statement.

 

[Tighthead]

Don't think it goes down, likely shoots up with Seattle paying top dollar.

Expansion fees aren’t HRR, so I don’t see a correlation.

 

[BargainBinSpecial]

It will be flat for "At least a couple years" and not go down at all if one is to believe Gary. Regardless of Seattle, which Bettman obviously factored into his statement.

Don't think it would be flat for a couple of years. GMs will put lots of pressure on the owners and the cap will go up after the Seattle expansion. Teams are cap stricken as is because once again, they overpay for players.

 

[BargainBinSpecial]

Expansion fees aren’t HRR, so I don’t see a correlation.

Not saying it has a correlation however more teams will have some cap relief as they lose a player. Teams won't learn from past mistakes and will still overpay for players. So, cap will likely go up.

 

[Tighthead]

Not saying it has a correlation however more teams will have some cap relief as they lose a player. Teams won't learn from past mistakes and will still overpay for players. So, cap will likely go up.

But the cap is solely a function of revenue, and what I’ve quoted has no relation.

Also you mentioned Seattle paying “top dollar” and your explanation has nothing to do with that.

Nonw of your predictions even mention revenue, but you still foresee a cap increase based on spending.

 

[Tighthead]

Duplicate

 

[BargainBinSpecial]

But the cap is solely a function of revenue, and what I’ve quoted has no relation.

Also you mentioned Seattle paying “top dollar” and your explanation has nothing to do with that.

Nonw of your predictions even mention revenue, but you still foresee a cap increase based on spending.

Unfortunately, the owners will have to cut losses and pay up to keep younger more talented players unless they find ways to dump high salary, highly unlikely. So, this time, the cap will not be based solely on revenue but will go up to provide cap relief for many teams.

 

[Tighthead]

Unfortunately, the owners will have to cut losses and pay up to keep younger more talented players unless they find ways to dump high salary, highly unlikely. So, this time, the cap will not be based solely on revenue but will go up to provide cap relief for many teams.

So now you are talking about a whole new CBA? That has nothing to do with Seattle paying “top dollar” in any way.

Your timeline seems to be shifting and you are just making it up.

If the cap isn’t based on revenue, what variables would you add to the formula in your situation?

 

[CHfan1]

Unfortunately, the owners will have to cut losses and pay up to keep younger more talented players unless they find ways to dump high salary, highly unlikely. So, this time, the cap will not be based solely on revenue but will go up to provide cap relief for many teams.

So now you are talking about a whole new CBA? That has nothing to do with Seattle paying “top dollar” in any way.

Your timeline seems to be shifting and you are just making it up.

If the cap isn’t based on revenue, what variables would you add to the formula in your situation?

Attached is the CBA that governs the cap.

The big thing is it can’t go up significantly until the escrow balance is paid off. With escrow capped from year to year when will this happen? Especially if revenue is way down next season with no or limited fans.

Things in it:

- Upper Limit will remain at $81.5 Million until Preliminary HRR for the just completed League Year surpasses $3.3 Billion.

- For any League Year where Preliminary HRR is between $3.3 Billion and $4.8 Billion, the Upper Limit for the following League Year shall be between $81.5 Million and $82.5 Million on a pro rata basis (e.g., if Preliminary HRR is $4.05 Billion, the Upper Limit will be $82 Million).

- Once Preliminary HRR for the immediately preceding League Year surpasses $4.8 Billion, the Upper Limit will increase by $1 Million per League Year until the Escrow Balance is paid off

- The parties can agree to increase the Upper Limit in excess of $1 Million in order to allow for a smoother transition into the ‘Lag’ formula.

- The parties agree to discuss the Upper Limit in good faith in the event projected or Actual HRR decreases on a year over year basis.

- introduce the ‘Lag’ formula after the Escrow Balance has been repaid but not earlier than establishing the Upper Limit for 2023/24 League Year.

https://media.nhl.com/site/asset/public/ext/NHLPA_NHL_MOU.pdf

 

[BargainBinSpecial]

Attached is the CBA that governs the cap.

The big thing is it can’t go up significantly until the escrow balance is paid off. With escrow capped from year to year when will this happen? Especially if revenue is way down next season with no or limited fans.

Things in it:

- Upper Limit will remain at $81.5 Million until Preliminary HRR for the just completed League Year surpasses $3.3 Billion.

- For any League Year where Preliminary HRR is between $3.3 Billion and $4.8 Billion, the Upper Limit for the following League Year shall be between $81.5 Million and $82.5 Million on a pro rata basis (e.g., if Preliminary HRR is $4.05 Billion, the Upper Limit will be $82 Million).

- Once Preliminary HRR for the immediately preceding League Year surpasses $4.8 Billion, the Upper Limit will increase by $1 Million per League Year until the Escrow Balance is paid off

- The parties can agree to increase the Upper Limit in excess of $1 Million in order to allow for a smoother transition into the ‘Lag’ formula.

- The parties agree to discuss the Upper Limit in good faith in the event projected or Actual HRR decreases on a year over year basis.

- introduce the ‘Lag’ formula after the Escrow Balance has been repaid but not earlier than establishing the Upper Limit for 2023/24 League Year.

https://media.nhl.com/site/asset/public/ext/NHLPA_NHL_MOU.pdf

I have a feeling all this will change because of Covid-19. Who would of thought that a pandemic in this day and age would force the world into a partial shutdown.

 

[Tighthead]

Attached is the CBA that governs the cap.

The big thing is it can’t go up significantly until the escrow balance is paid off. With escrow capped from year to year when will this happen? Especially if revenue is way down next season with no or limited fans.

Things in it:

- Upper Limit will remain at $81.5 Million until Preliminary HRR for the just completed League Year surpasses $3.3 Billion.

- For any League Year where Preliminary HRR is between $3.3 Billion and $4.8 Billion, the Upper Limit for the following League Year shall be between $81.5 Million and $82.5 Million on a pro rata basis (e.g., if Preliminary HRR is $4.05 Billion, the Upper Limit will be $82 Million).

- Once Preliminary HRR for the immediately preceding League Year surpasses $4.8 Billion, the Upper Limit will increase by $1 Million per League Year until the Escrow Balance is paid off

- The parties can agree to increase the Upper Limit in excess of $1 Million in order to allow for a smoother transition into the ‘Lag’ formula.

- The parties agree to discuss the Upper Limit in good faith in the event projected or Actual HRR decreases on a year over year basis.

- introduce the ‘Lag’ formula after the Escrow Balance has been repaid but not earlier than establishing the Upper Limit for 2023/24 League Year.

https://media.nhl.com/site/asset/public/ext/NHLPA_NHL_MOU.pdf

Thanks.

Many owners are going to be licking their pandemic wounds for a few seasons. I don’t see any desire on the part of owners to adjust the cap in a manner that allows GMs to spend more actual money on players.

For many owners, I would say the majority, business concerns are of a much higher priority than hockey concerns. They are going to listen to Bettman, accountants, lawyers, and lenders on financial matters. GMs complaining that they need more money aren’t going to find many sympathetic ears.