Speculation: How we fit under the cap in 21-22

[danyhabsfan]

Drouin 5.5 Suzuki 0.863 Anderson 5.5
Toffoli 4.25 Kotkaniemi 2.75 (bridge contract) Gallagher 6.5
Lekhonen/Armia 2.75 (extension) Danault 5 (new contract 5 x 5M) Caufield 0.925
Byron 3.4 Poehling 0.8 Evans 0.75
Belzile 0.75 (or somebody else)

Chiarot 3.5 Weber 7.86
Edmundson 3.5 Petry 6.25
Kulak 1.8 Romanov 0.894
1 of Mete/Norlinder/Fleury/Juulsen 0.8

Price 10.5
Allen 2.875


+Alzner buyout money

22 players with a 79.7M cap hit

We'd lose one of our player to Seattle too.

Tatar gone
one of Armia/Lekhonen gone (ideally Byron)

 

[japhi]

You dont need the replacement to be as good as Danault. Obviously if wed need Danault on the team, wed keep Danault...

Oh so by easily replace him you actually meant easily replace him with a worse player. Well I agree with that, but not sure why we would want to downgrade down the middle.

 

[japhi]

I mean...we don't roll three lines evenly. If that's the case, KK wouldn't be at 11 ES minutes while Gallagher's close to 15min, not to mention Kovalchuk who was up to 16:25 at ES.

Those are outliers and you know it. Kovy was being showcased and Kotka was struggling then was hurt. Neither played close to a full season and neither was in the lineup at the same time.

A broader sample would show that Julien balances ES minutes fairly evenly between the top 9 and has for 100 plus games. This is also fairly common amongst the better teams in the league.

 

[Mrb1p]

Oh so by easily replace him you actually meant easily replace him with a worse player. Well I agree with that, but not sure why we would want to downgrade down the middle.

Because hes not needed... lmao. Having players that are too good for their roster spots gives diminishing returns.

 

[japhi]

Because hes not needed... lmao. Having players that are too good for their roster spots gives diminishing returns.

What is his roster spot? What does that even mean?

Here is who he is: he centres one of the best ES possession lines in the league. He is an elite two way forward that can score at .6 ppg. Feel free to argue that we don’t need a guy like this but all the roster spot, top6 bottom 6 talk isn’t a real thing in todays NHL. You have an understanding of the game thats stuck in 1985

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Drouin 5.5 Suzuki 0.863 Anderson 5.5
Toffoli 4.25 Kotkaniemi 2.75 (bridge contract) Gallagher 6.5
Lekhonen/Armia 2.75 (extension) Danault 5 (new contract 5 x 5M) Caufield 0.925
Byron 3.4 Poehling 0.8 Evans 0.75
Belzile 0.75 (or somebody else)

Chiarot 3.5 Weber 7.86
Edmundson 3.5 Petry 6.25
Kulak 1.8 Romanov 0.894
1 of Mete/Norlinder/Fleury/Juulsen 0.8

Price 10.5
Allen 2.875


+Alzner buyout money

22 players with a 79.7M cap hit

We'd lose one of our player to Seattle too.

Tatar gone
one of Armia/Lekhonen gone (ideally Byron)

Ya I’m good with this. Wouldn’t mind locking up KK for longer to bring his future AAV down either though.

but I’d roll

Drouin-Suzuki-Toffoli
Caufield-KK-Anderson
Lehkonen-Danault-Gallagher
Poehling-Evans-Byron

 

[Kriss E]

Those are outliers and you know it. Kovy was being showcased and Kotka was struggling then was hurt. Neither played close to a full season and neither was in the lineup at the same time.

A broader sample would show that Julien balances ES minutes fairly evenly between the top 9 and has for 100 plus games. This is also fairly common amongst the better teams in the league.

Take the previous year if you want...about 15min compared to 12min. I'm not sure what you have in mind...very few teams have players in top 9 who play 10min less than each other at ES.
Even when you look at someone like Crosby, he played 5min more at ES than Pearson. So..obviously...a Danault vs Byron is going to be closer than that. It's still 15min vs 12min.

Julien likes to roll his lines, ya, but let's not pretend like there wasn't #1 #2 #3 because there's not a 5min discrepancy among each lines.

 

[Mrb1p]

What is his roster spot? What does that even mean?

Here is who he is: he centres one of the best ES possession lines in the league. He is an elite two way forward that can score at .6 ppg. Feel free to argue that we don’t need a guy like this but all the roster spot, top6 bottom 6 talk isn’t a real thing in todays NHL. You have an understanding of the game thats stuck in 1985

His roster spot is the 3rd line center position and 1st PK center.

Like it or not, thats what he needs to be for the Habs to succeed in the NHL, and thats whats going to happen.

He wont produce .6 PPG with less minutes and no Gallagher.

Hes not elite at anything, stop using that word to describe a player like him.

 

[danyhabsfan]

Ya I’m good with this. Wouldn’t mind locking up KK for longer to bring his future AAV down either though.

but I’d roll

Drouin-Suzuki-Toffoli
Caufield-KK-Anderson
Lehkonen-Danault-Gallagher
Poehling-Evans-Byron

Claude Julien is our coach

Don't think he'd like Caufield and KK on the same line right now.

Maybe later in their career

 

[NewEraGM]

Ideally, I’d be willing to pay a 3rd round pick for Seattle to take Byron. If they don’t accept, fine. They can pick whoever but I wouldn’t pay more than a 3rd . Limits damage unlike many teams went through, we don’t really need another 3rd pick. Dumping byrons salary would be helpful.

 

[Belial]

In a year Suzuki will be 22 and in year 3
KK will be 21 and in year four.

Danault has been playing that role since his 2nd year in the league.

Why is it so hard to expect smarter, more talented players to fill in those roles later in their careers?

22 and 21 is still very young, and the point here is not even about KK and Suzy...

I would keep Danault around even if those two become real studs.

No one ever had too many good centers. You can save on wingers if KK and Suzy are killing it.

 

[tinyzombies]

2021-22 Habs - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

 

[Roadhouse]

2021-22 Habs - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Generally speaking your scenario isn't bad, and it is a possibility. But, I think

• Kotkaniemi gets more;
• We have to let Armia (like Tatar) due to cap structure and right hand shots;
• Caufield gets more; and
• You're very optimistic on Juulsen, really hope you're right (2.5M!).

I'm pretty sure Bergevin will sign Danault to a contract very close to the one you penciled in, and that all of Tatar Weal and Armia will be let go so they can add a middle six LW on a 4-5 year contract -- either by way of UFA, or trade pre/post-draft. I'm thinking Beauvillier, Isles won't be able to afford him with the new Barzal contract this year so get him and make Drouin PR-expandable (as an exit, if he somehow doesn't perform well..?!).

My wish for 2021-22 which considers Allen to Seattle, high draft picks given to Lamoriello for Beauvillier, 2nd year Romanov and one more full year of maturing for KK:

Drouin - Suzuki - Anderson
Toffoli - Danault - Gallagher
Beauvillier - Kotkaniemi - Caufield
Lehkonen - Poehling - Evans

Romanov - Petry
Chiarot - Weber
Edmundson - Brook

Price
Primeau

Village-burning from the top 3 lines. Motor and sticks from the 4th line. Kotkaniemi's line against 3rd pairings and bottom 6 players would be a massacre.

Romanov-Petry take over as 1st pairing. Weber-Chiarot can bash as a 2nd pairing, Edmundson can protect Brook and clear Price's net to let Josh play his game. Norlinder coming up as a rookie in 2022-23 (the following year) as Chiarot leaves the left side of our D, perfect timing.

*****************************************

I like our chances at a deep run better in 2022-23 with Caufield & Primeau also having a year of experience + Norlinder in for Chiarot, than I do the 2021-22 version. Notice how KK's line is now getting clear #2 line TOI over Danault's at that point. We need Phil's motor and puck retrieval on the '2nd line' for a few more years I think. Also, the way Suzuki and Drouin dazzled together in the playoffs meshes really well with Anderson's speed which is why I think they will eventually become our 1st line -- though I see KK's deadly line not so far behind.

Drouin - Suzuki - Anderson
Beauvillier - Kotkaniemi - Caufield
Toffoli - Danault - Gallagher
Lehkonen - Poehling - Evans

Romanov - Petry
Norlinder - Weber
Edmundson - Brook

Price
Primeau


Sorry for the long post. 3rd coffee on an early Sunday morning. That's how I see it unfolding with things going generally well / players staying relatively healthy.

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

22 and 21 is still very young, and the point here is not even about KK and Suzy...

I would keep Danault around even if those two become real studs.

No one ever had too many good centers. You can save on wingers if KK and Suzy are killing it.

So would I. Hopefully MB and he can hammer out a deal.

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

Generally speaking your scenario isn't bad, and it is a possibility. But, I think

• Kotkaniemi gets more;
• We have to let Armia (like Tatar) due to cap structure and right hand shots;
• Caufield gets more; and
• You're very optimistic on Juulsen, really hope you're right (2.5M!).

I'm pretty sure Bergevin will sign Danault to a contract very close to the one you penciled in, and that all of Tatar Weal and Armia will be let go so they can add a middle six LW on a 4-5 year contract -- either by way of UFA, or trade pre/post-draft. I'm thinking Beauvillier, Isles won't be able to afford him with the new Barzal contract this year so get him and make Drouin PR-expandable (as an exit, if he somehow doesn't perform well..?!).

My wish for 2021-22 which considers Allen to Seattle, high draft picks given to Lamoriello for Beauvillier, 2nd year Romanov and one more full year of maturing for KK:

Drouin - Suzuki - Anderson
Toffoli - Danault - Gallagher
Beauvillier - Kotkaniemi - Caufield
Lehkonen - Poehling - Evans

Romanov - Petry
Chiarot - Weber
Edmundson - Brook

Price
Primeau

Village-burning from the top 3 lines. Motor and sticks from the 4th line. Kotkaniemi's line against 3rd pairings and bottom 6 players would be a massacre.

Romanov-Petry take over as 1st pairing. Weber-Chiarot can bash as a 2nd pairing, Edmundson can protect Brook and clear Price's net to let Josh play his game. Norlinder coming up as a rookie in 2022-23 (the following year) as Chiarot leaves the left side of our D, perfect timing.

*****************************************

I like our chances at a deep run better in 2022-23 with Caufield & Primeau also having a year of experience + Norlinder in for Chiarot, than I do the 2021-22 version. Notice how KK's line is now getting clear #2 line TOI over Danault's at that point. We need Phil's motor and puck retrieval on the '2nd line' for a few more years I think. Also, the way Suzuki and Drouin dazzled together in the playoffs meshes really well with Anderson's speed which is why I think they will eventually become our 1st line -- though I see KK's deadly line not so far behind.

Drouin - Suzuki - Anderson
Beauvillier - Kotkaniemi - Caufield
Toffoli - Danault - Gallagher
Lehkonen - Poehling - Evans

Romanov - Petry
Norlinder - Weber
Edmundson - Brook

Price
Primeau


Sorry for the long post. 3rd coffee on an early Sunday morning. That's how I see it unfolding with things going generally well / players staying relatively healthy.

I like it. Hopefully Brook justifies your faith in him. I can definitely see Norlinder and Caufield equal to the task. Picking up Beauvilier on the cheap would be outrageous. This team, already good 5-on-5, would just rain shots on goal like a torrent of arrows from the 300 movie.

Hopefully Guhle settles in and increases the level of opposing forward suffering soon after, or perhaps the same season as Norlinder.

 

[Roadhouse]

I like it. Hopefully Brook justifies your faith in him. I can definitely see Norlinder and Caufield equal to the task. Picking up Beauvilier on the cheap would be outrageous. This team, already good 5-on-5, would just rain shots on goal like a torrent of arrows from the 300 movie.

Isles fans would be sobbing like Vancouver fans have been on Toffoli...! They just dealt Devon Toews for picks. This smells internal cap management. Not sure if Pulock and Barzal are making it hard on Lou or what. Otherwise for a similar price to RFA-Beauvillier I suppose Bergevin could keep Tatar - if Tuna accepts the terms.

As for Brook being adequate on a 3rd pairing next year in the NHL... if he's not, there's always a chance of Harris slotting in. The kid has played RD if I'm not mistaken. Not all hope is lost in Cale Fleury either, I don't think. Those guys, as well as a healthy Juulsen, are all ok on a 3rd pairing behind those other two pairings - especially with the Stay at Home piece covered by Edmundson, who is young enough to give us several quality years still.

Throwback Fassbender. We don't have arrows. We fight in the shade. Boom.

 

[ForeverHabs97]

Drouin 5.5 Suzuki 0.863 Anderson 5.5
Toffoli 4.25 Kotkaniemi 2.75 (bridge contract) Gallagher 6.5
Lekhonen/Armia 2.75 (extension) Danault 5 (new contract 5 x 5M) Caufield 0.925
Byron 3.4 Poehling 0.8 Evans 0.75
Belzile 0.75 (or somebody else)

Chiarot 3.5 Weber 7.86
Edmundson 3.5 Petry 6.25
Kulak 1.8 Romanov 0.894
1 of Mete/Norlinder/Fleury/Juulsen 0.8

Price 10.5
Allen 2.875


+Alzner buyout money

22 players with a 79.7M cap hit

We'd lose one of our player to Seattle too.

Tatar gone
one of Armia/Lekhonen gone (ideally Byron)

If KK continues his progression, you're dreaming. I'll be shocked if he signs anything less than 6M.

 

[Odie Cleghorn]

Because hes not needed... lmao. Having players that are too good for their roster spots gives diminishing returns.

Right and MB has had an easy time finding centres. Unless Poehling develops into a Danault clone they need to keep Danault. If he wanted to move Danault he should have kept Domi.

 

[Mrb1p]

Right and MB has had an easy time finding centres. Unless Poehling develops into a Danault clone they need to keep Danault. If he wanted to move Danault he should have kept Domi.

The Habs dont need a Danault...

They need a third line center. If they wanted a Danault, why move Danault? It makes no sense, lmao.

The whole premise is that the value of Danault in a trade is greater than his value to his team, both because of salary and because of his place on the depth chart.

 

[tinyzombies]

I would rather keep Armia (UFA) than Lehkonen (RFA) because of size- we also have expensive redundancies on the blueline tho. We need to find QB's for our blueline- badly, not sure if Brook has that in his game, Juulsen does a bit (and also has dzone presence). Tampa, Vegas, and especially Colorado all have size and skill. Colorado is a bunch of mountain giants, everyone can shoot and they are loaded with qb's on the back-end, we have none. We cannot stop fixing the roster. I love what he's done but it's not nearly enough if we want a Cup. This is for this upcoming season, but just gives an idea of what we're up against. I added Tampa (tho they are way over the cap), Toronto and Vegas.

I'm not sold on Caufield, but I'm rooting for him. Which reminds me, this team also has a speed issue and a puck moving issue on the back end. There's still a LOT to fix. We need another Markov...

Gallagher is under 185 lbs but I gave him a capital letter because he plays big. Drouin is going to have his stripped soon unless he starts playing hockey.

 

[Goal Caufield50]

Depending on the season they both have, good asset management might be to trade Drouin for futures if possible and re-sign Tatar. We have options, it'll be interesting to see how things go.

Yes, sign Tatar and trade Drouin for a pick

 

[1909]

Yes, sign Tatar and trade Drouin for a pick

You keep the most productive one at the end of the season.

 

[Ozmodiar]

he’ll focus on the left side next year.

Byron traded, Tatar walks.
Brandon Saad signed to a Toffoli-like contract. He won’t get 6 again.

Armia walks.
Danault signs for 5M.
Lehkonen signs for around the same as his previous contract.

A LD to Seattle, Romanov moves to top 4.

This leaves 1.7 in space for an upgrade. Option: give Seattle a pick to take Kulak instead of JE.

drouin - Suzuki - Anderson
Saad - Danault - Gally
Toffoli - KK - caufield
Lehkonen - Poehling- Evans
Belzile

chiarot - Weber
Romanov - petry
Mete - fleury
Kulak

 

[Scintillating10]

Allen may go in expansion draft. Tatar traded at deadline. Gain 2.4m next year on Alzner buyout. Kulal likely waived 1.8m. That frees up 13.5m from today's.

Gallagher and Petry increases are 3.5m. Danault and Armia increases should come in around 3 m. Primeau, Caufiels both on ELC. That leaves around 5m, only big increase will be KK.

 

[TopTenPlayz]

he’ll focus on the left side next year.

Byron traded, Tatar walks.
Brandon Saad signed to a Toffoli-like contract. He won’t get 6 again.

Armia walks.
Danault signs for 5M.
Lehkonen signs for around the same as his previous contract.

A LD to Seattle, Romanov moves to top 4.

This leaves 1.7 in space for an upgrade. Option: give Seattle a pick to take Kulak instead of JE.

drouin - Suzuki - Anderson
Saad - Danault - Gally
Toffoli - KK - caufield
Lehkonen - Poehling- Evans
Belzile

chiarot - Weber
Romanov - petry
Mete - fleury
Kulak

If he lets Armia and Tatar walk for free, I'd be pissed as hell